First Saturday in May
Yes, and I think he'd have been listed and taken a fair bit of action if Carla Gaines hadn't said something within the past few days about probably not running him in the Lewis this weekend. He also hasn't worked in the last week.Quote: KeeneoneI thought Bolo may be added but did read he may be kept on the turf for now.
If Jess's Dream was on the list I suspect he'd also get action, with no past performance lines to print about him at all. He's a Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt by Curlin out of a certain Medaglia d'Oro mare (*ahem* she's Rachel Alexandra) and there's been quite a bit of a buzz about him going on for months. And he still hasn't made his first start. I don't know if he merits it or not, but if the most whispered about colt in the land this year and for what seems like about half of last year ever does actually get his hooves to the track one afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off at something like 2:5 or less.
And if he never does actually run, the colt already has a more substantial Facebook page and more "friends" than most people I know (including me), so I guess it is all well and good that they didn't name him "Goat" or "Chicken" even if he never does more than eat and strut around.
Quote: DrawingDeadYes, and I think he'd have been listed and taken a fair bit of action if Carla Gaines hadn't said something within the past few days about probably not running him in the Lewis this weekend. He also hasn't worked in the last week.
If Jess's Dream was on the list I suspect he'd also get action, with no past performance lines to print about him at all. He's a Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt by Curlin out of a certain Medaglia d'Oro mare (*ahem* she was Rachel Alexandra) and there's been quite a bit of a buzz about him going on for months. And he still hasn't made his first start. I don't know if he merits it or not, but if the most whispered about colt in the land this year and for what seems like about half of last year ever does actually get his hooves to the track one afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off at something like 2:5 or less.
Jess's Dream has already taken action in the Derby futures. He is certainly the "royalty" of racing. With only one published work (and a lot of buzz), it is best to look elsewhere until he hits the track (and assume you will as well).
Jess's Dream (Wynn 60/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 85/1)
My, oh my. Not with my money.Quote: Keeneone(Wynn 60/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 85/1)
EDIT:
Another month or two of the same and I think he should be officially crowned "The Paris Hilton of Racing." Fabulously famous for being famous, but so far as anyone can tell isn't able to actually do anything.Quote: Keeneonethe "royalty" of racing. With only one published work
Er, ah... hmmm. They may not know, so I'm not too embarrassed to say that I don't either. I think the one it is NOT is Nick Zito's gelding, Quimet.Quote: KeeneoneQuote: DrawingDeadThat has the look to me of a race that a few significant trainers may have "requested" to get carded by the racing secretary. Reminds me of another one about this time last year, but with some stiffs recruited to fill out the field:
February 22nd, 2014, Gulfstream Park, Race #6
Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and Constitution all figure to be active "older horses" this year. Wow, what a great field in that race last year. So of the five entered tomorrow, who is Tonalist/Wicked Strong/Constitution?
EDIT: And on second thought, with Quimet managing to hold second, whoever is Tonalistwickedstrongconstitution was most likely somewhere back in the barn. If you don't manage to handle that one easily, you should probably be named Aspiretobemediocre.
Quote: beachbumbabs-snip-
I have no clue about much of the vocabulary and statistics you provide, but I sure appreciate you acting as a resource for those who do. I think it adds a lot to the board.
I completely agree. Thank you to everyone who reads and/or contributes to this topic.
Eagle - Still in training after a disappointing 7th in the Lecomte.
Punctuate - Scratched from the San Vicente, is training well, and Baffert may have known Lord Nelson was primed for a win.
Classy Class - Distant 4th in the Remsen, in training, and could return soon.
#4 Madefromlucky (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 100/1) Won in a slowish time of 1:52.04. I give the race a "meh". Video:
----------
In other news, Carpe Diem has drifted up a little to the highest levels I have seen. The best number I have found is @ Wynn 22/1. I hope this trend continues until he returns to action. His odds in the 2nd Derby future pool could also drift up from the morning line of 15/1.
Mubtaahij has now shown up @ W Hill 150/1 and Westgate 125/1 (Wynn 125/1).
Quote: Daily Racing Form official result chartFebruary 4, 2015 Gulfstream Park, Race 2
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $75,000
Purse $48,000. (Includes $6,000 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Three Year Olds Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter Or Restricted Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two Races Or Claiming Price $75,000. Weight, 120 Lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over since January 4 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $75,000 (Races where entered for $50,000 or less not considered in allowances). One And One Eighth Miles.1. Meh
Fractional times: Tick-tock, Tick, Tock, Zzzzzzz.
2. Eh
3. Blechh
WPS $2 mutual payouts: Why?
Footnotes: Slow Wednesday accidentally took over from Nevermind as that one stalked Don't Bother pursued by Nobody Cares while Not Worth the Trouble drifted wide in pursuit of a nap. Next!
Of the wagering interests added to Pool #2, I'm finding Khozan the most interesting to me, and the other relatively new Pletcher prospect Istaknockout to be a little interesting. I'm looking for what I perceive to be value derived from the most potential for improvement to be had from additional growth & maturity, experience, and distance. Ocean Knight is a nice horse, but at this point I'm not quite buying him as one of the more likely prospects to be a nicer horse at 10 furlongs with 3 more months, and from that point of view don't expect to see value on him in this pari-mutual pool.Quote: KeeneoneOf the 9 new additions, Ocean Knight will likely get the most play. I do not see his odds closing near 50/1. Khozan is also interesting but really unproven (around 2 turns). The 2 events on Saturday (Withers/Lewis) could draw a few of these as entrants and really change the odds after the races. I thought Bolo may be added but did read he may be kept on the turf for now.
It is a big .pdf file, but:
Quote: DRFAll 429 Triple Crown nominated horse PPs are now available! The past performances are as of February 3, 2015.
Click here for 2015 Triple Crown Nominations PPs
I *think* it can *probably* be downloaded by those who don't have DRF accounts, or with only a free type of account.
And a simple list of all eligible nominees, with top Beyer speed figure run to date... but without regard to distance or surface!
Aqueduct race #8 Grade 3 Withers Stakes (250k, 1 1/16mile):
1 - Classy Class (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 125/1) 1st Derby future pool horse.
2 - Far From Over (Wynn 60/1, W Hill 150/1)
3 - March (Wynn 125/1)
4 - Tencendur (Wynn 300/1)
5 - Unrivaled (Wynn 250/1) - cross entered same day @ Laurel Park race #8
6 - General Bellamy (Wynn 150/1)
7 - El Kabeir (Wynn 18/1, W Hill 40/1, Westgate 16/1) 1st and 2nd Derby future pool horse.
El Kabeir has done nothing but win lately and really towers over the others in experience. He is giving 6 pounds to the field and will still be heavily bet. Classy Class was good enough to make the 1st Derby pool and this is his first race since the Remsen. If the odds are right (~3/1 or higher), in this spot my money would be on March. He has run well at Aqueduct, he just had a bullet 5f workout last week, and a horse he beat (Dontbetwithbruno) came right back to score, he may be coming into a big race.
Santa Anita race #5 Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis S. (150k, 1 1/16mile):
1 - Tizcano (Wynn 300/1, W Hill 125/1)
2 - Rock Shandy (Wynn 75/1)
3 - Sebastian's Heart
4 - Hero Ten All (Wynn 150/1, W Hill 100/1)
5 - Firing Line (Wynn 30/1, W Hill 40/1, Westgate 25/1) 2nd Derby future pool horse.
6 - Dortmund (Wynn 9/1, W Hill 15/1, Westgate 12/1) 1st and 2nd Derby future pool horse.
Rematch race between Firing Line and Dortmund. Dortmund has done nothing but win, he is giving 5 pounds to the field, has been working out great and should be the favorite. Firing Line just missed last out but can he duplicate that race and beat Dortmund? I do not know.
Some years ago someone I respected as one of the better handicappers/raceplayers I knew was pretty much a racing dumpster trash specialist. He really killed it on the circuit of truly obscure micro-stakes tracks, such as the little annual festival of races on a small "bull-ring" track at the Tillamook County Fair, where the winning owners and riders (often the owner's daughter) were presented with their coveted reward of a hunk of cheese. Really, about a five pound block of Tillamook cheese. Cheddar I think.Quote: ontariodealerdo you guys play smaller tracks and cheaper races or do you just like the higher end stuff????
I am not him, never have been, don't know how. Nobody is equally proficient at everything, I tend to specialize in what I'm relatively better at, and getting the cheese at the Tillamook County Fair is not it. Tip of the cap to those who can, and do. Races for higher quality young developing horses switching surfaces and stretching out to a distance of ground that would require going around the Tillamook Fair about eight times tends to be what I know how to evaluate, so I do.
I like turf racing. Races are won differently on grass than the much more common dirt racing, which is good for me. You can only run a limited number of races on it in a given time frame without destroying it, and turf is expensive to have at all, so the lesser tracks generally don't.
Quote: ontariodealerdo you guys play smaller tracks and cheaper races or do you just like the higher end stuff????
Sure, racing is racing. This thread is largely focused on Kentucky Derby hopefuls. These high end/high cost runners will usually compete at the larger, bigger purse, higher quality race tracks that also have a bit of "Derby" history.
But if you get a future tip on an Ajax quarter-horse I would certainly listen. The difficultly would be actually having access to bet into the parimutuel pool of many smaller tracks around the world.
Santa Anita race #3 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
7 - Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1)
I have discussed Cyrus Alexander in the past and this race is his fifth attempt to break his maiden. Blinkers go back on and another new jockey (Nakatani) gets a chance. I would love to see him succeed in this one. He is still learning and talented, but if he ain't winning Hollendorfer ain't grinning.
----------
Great day of all-around racing scheduled for Gulfstream. Here are 2 longer dirt races for 3 year olds:
Gulfstream race #4 (MSW - one turn mile)
10 - Performance Bonus (Wynn 175/1)
Gulfstream race #6 (MSW - one turn mile)
10 - Danzig Moon (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 150/1)
----------
Laurel Park race #8 (AOC 35k - 1 1/16mile)
7 - Unrivaled (Wynn 250/1) - cross entered on the same day for the Withers.
I use to know that leaky roof joint well, and there is probably still a seat with an indentation in the shape of my rear end in it (in one of the few spots in the clubhouse where I knew the roof didn't leak)... but doesn't a $200 wager on something blow it off the board down to 1/5 odds in their parimutual pools? Do you handicap the actual horses there, or the trainer's shenanigans? Because unless you are the leading trainer or close to it and winning at a 25% clip or more, competing for a share of those purses and getting a trainer's 10% share of that in turn while feeding your stock & paying stall rent and on and on would seem to be a pretty tough way to make an honest living.Quote: ontariodealerPortland meadows
Quote: EquibaseRACE 7 - POST TIME - 2:48 PM
Portland Meadows CLAIMING $2,500
Purse $4,700. (Includes $575 – ORC - Oregon Racing Commission). For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward Which Have Not Won A Race Since February 1, 2014. Weight, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $2,500. Six Furlongs.
Specializing in maiden and NW2 races is something I can definitely understand. It is much closer to what I do than playing in the claiming races for aging geldings who are gradually sliding down the class ladder until there's no place left for them to go.
I wonder if he might eventually be destined to earn his keep on turf. Going long on turf. To me, Nakatani is an aggressive sort of rider who might possibly shake him up and get his attention where other riders with different talents haven't.Quote: KeeneoneSanta Anita race #3 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
7 - Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1)
I have discussed Cyrus Alexander in the past and this race is his fifth attempt to break his maiden. Blinkers go back on and another new jockey (Nakatani) gets a chance. I would love to see him succeed in this one. He is still learning and talented, but if he ain't winning Hollendorfer ain't grinning.
I understand McLaughlin is also going to try blinkers on Frosted, at the repeated suggestion of Irad Ortiz.
HRTV has started their "Pursuit of the Crown" weekly broadcasts again for this year, and if you get that on your cable or dish it is worth setting the DVR for, in my opinion; 80% fluff but the 20% makes it worthwhile. According to POTC Carla Gaines told them that Bolo has "a sore [something-or-other] muscle" which is "not serious" and he "could have" run in the Robert B. Lewis this weekend, but she's being cautious with him.
Disclaimer: I will start taking public statements of trainers about the condition of their stock totally at face value right after the very first time I ever hear one of them say:
Quote: Trainer Seymour P. HorsedroppingYeah, he's started working like a garden slug in the mornings lately, I have no idea what's wrong or what to do about it, and he's probably toast. But his owner has reserved several VIP boxes in the turf club and is flying in with his whole posse for a big party, that stupid twit owns practically half the horses in my stable, and if I pissed him off I might not be able to make the payments on my new house. So he'll have to go ahead and run Saturday, and I'll just hope he doesn't break down.
I'm not done digging into them yet, but I'm not yet seeing a likely bet for me in the major 3 y/o stakes this weekend, just some careful watching & enjoyment of those events for the sport of it. But since you mention it Mr. One, pending money flow on the tote board, I am tentatively hoping for a certain Performance Bonus for my labors (Chad Brown 2nd time start > 30% + $$, sprint to route > 30%, AWD 7.0, and six lengths clear of field after poor start in sprint debut).
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=48288
Short summary: After Take Charge Brandi won the Martha Washington, owner (W Horton) says maybe she will run against the boys (Arkansas Derby) and trainer (DW Lucas) says owner is "having fun with it, I think"....
----------
Cyrus Alexander may well be pointed towards the turf (or synthetic) in the future. The fact that he continues to train and get entered into dirt races shows how they are committed to giving him a chance at the Triple Crown races. Arguably his best race came on the synthetic track at Del Mar. His neck loss to Propect Park was pretty good as well.
----------
Blinkers for Frosted may be a good idea. I always like to see these changes tried before the biggest preps (April) and the Derby.
Quote: DrawingDeadI use to know that leaky roof joint well, and there is probably still a seat with an indentation in the shape of my rear end in it (in one of the few spots in the clubhouse where I knew the roof didn't leak)... but doesn't a $200 wager on something blow it off the board down to 1/5 odds in their parimutual pools? Do you handicap the actual horses there, or the trainer's shenanigans? Because unless you are the leading trainer or close to it and winning at a 25% clip or more, competing for a share of those purses and getting a trainer's 10% share of that in turn while feeding your stock & paying stall rent and on and on would seem to be a pretty tough way to make an honest living.
Specializing in maiden and NW2 races is something I can definitely understand. It is much closer to what I do than playing in the claiming races for aging geldings who are gradually sliding down the class ladder until there's no place left for them to go.
I handicap trainers and trainers intent at all times, and try to play the exotics to get decent roi.
Eminently sensible to me, though I picture myself having some trouble keeping tabs on some trainers' habits if I was involved in more and smaller racing circuits, and also challenges with the thinner wagering pools. Though like I said, I have known those who did so at smaller cheaper places than that. They also were exceptionally good at picking up changing biases on eccentric surfaces, and evaluating physical appearance of racehorses in the paddock & warm up, but that was before widespread simulcasting & remote wagering into co-mingled pools, other than a few majors.Quote: ontariodealerI handicap trainers and trainers intent at all times, and try to play the exotics to get decent roi.
And come to think of it, the fellow I mentioned earlier (say "cheese") was also primarily focused on using the exotics at his tiny tracks. When I'm in the exotics, it is most often as part of an arbitrage involving inconsistencies between the implied odds there and some betting interests in the straight wager WPS pools.
The first dribs & drabs in the KDFW Pool #2 have hit my nemesis Upstart very hard, down to 5/1, with the "field" or "all others" all the way up to 2/1. But of course today's money will end up being the smallest share of it, and the total win pool is only a little over $25k at the moment.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-2-final-odds
----------
2/6 Oaklawn Park Race #8 (AOC 62.5k - 1 1/16mile):
Hillbilly Royalty won going away and had the best name in the field. Pioneerof The West ran a clunker.
So I had to check him out a little just because of the name. He is kind of royal for getting a distance of ground, or more so than an average Arkansas hillbilly, by Langfuhr out of an Aptitude mare & I get a pretty stout AWD of 7.4.Quote: KeeneoneLink to live odds 2nd Derby Future pool (also added to my other post on the subject):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-2-final-odds
----------
2/6 Oaklawn Park Race #8 (AOC 62.5k - 1 1/16mile):
Hillbilly Royalty won going away and had the best name in the field. Pioneerof The West ran a clunker.
The Wynn has informed me that they do not have wagering on Pool #2 available, and I'm guessing if they don't then it is most likely that nobody else in Las Vegas does either. Grrrrr.
Quote: DrawingDeadEminently sensible to me, though I picture myself having some trouble keeping tabs on some trainers' habits if I was involved in more and smaller racing circuits, and also challenges with the thinner wagering pools. Though like I said, I have known those who did so at smaller cheaper places than that. They also were exceptionally good at picking up changing biases on eccentric surfaces, and evaluating physical appearance of racehorses in the paddock & warm up, but that was before widespread simulcasting & remote wagering into co-mingled pools, other than a few majors.
And come to think of it, the fellow I mentioned earlier (say "cheese") was also primarily focused on using the exotics at his tiny tracks. When I'm in the exotics, it is most often as part of an arbitrage involving inconsistencies between the implied odds there and some betting interests in the straight wager WPS pools.
The first dribs & drabs in the KDFW Pool #2 have hit my nemesis Upstart very hard, down to 5/1, with the "field" or "all others" all the way up to 2/1. But of course today's money will end up being the smallest share of it, and the total win pool is only a little over $25k at the moment.
I can get upstart at 12-1 right now on hpi
I don't know what "hpi" is, but after taking a lot of the first wave of money he's been drifting up all day, and in my live feeds I see he's at 15/1 at this moment in the Churchill pool with less than 5% [EDIT to correct stupid typo to 5% not double digit %] of the win pool money, with the field bet to 6/5 at this point, Texas Red down to 5/1, followed by American Pharoah at 7/1, and others in double digits, with a little less than $90k in that pool so far. Most of the wagering will of course occur after Saturday afternoon.Quote: ontariodealerI can get upstart at 12-1 right now on hpi
I suspect the early short price number on Upstart may have been from a single large wager that hit the pool as soon as it opened.
I play the same strategy every year, exactors, 10 horses to the field and the field to ten horses.
this years ten horses are, american pharaoh, carpe diem, Dortmund, el kabier, far right, firing line, frostad, upstart, texas red and ocho ocho ocho.
Gotcha. I had an account with an early version of Woodbine's advance deposit wagering system about 18 or 20 years ago, back before they had co-mingled pools with US tracks and Canada/US cross-border agreements about betting into each other's races. So back then, it was highly interesting to me to be able to have that Canadian based account because Woodbine's own pari-mutual pool for a race being held at, say Santa Anita for example, was totally separate from the pari-mutual wagers for the same race made through any US source being transmitted into the on-track pools, creating a situation often resulting in very different potential payouts from each of the two unconnected pools. I'm sure you can imagine what I may have found so very interesting and sometimes rewarding about that. That's long gone, of course, as you know. <...sigh...>Quote: ontariodealerhpi.com Is the woodbine on line wagering acct and the only legal way to play in Canada.....the money is dumped into the u.s. pools.
Quote: ontariodealeryes, I remember those days......for those interested my betting strategy above has made money every year because of the way they pay the ALL if you don't run 1-2 with your 10 pics.
This "Field Exacta" strategy was discussed earlier in the thread. Have you specifically been betting the 2nd pool over the years or did you also do this for the 1st pool?
I realize the field will be favored again in the 2nd pool, but I am stumped to find the unlisted Derby winner out there. My search continues....
Example:
2/7 Gulfstream race #12 Gulfstream Park Turf H. Grade 1 (300k)
Imagining - 120 lbs. - Off for 2 months after a 7th place finish @ the Breeders Cup.
Mshawish - 118 lbs. - Just won a Grade 2 over the track.
Lochte - 117 lbs. - Just won a Grade 3 @ Tampa Bay and won this race last year.
I just do not understand this stuff. I like Imagining in this race BTW.
----------
Silver Dagger in the 9th race @ Gulfstream looked to have a good distance pedigree. A little late for the Derby party....
Yes, I also cashed that same exacta. And I think a lesson from it for many could be to keep careful records, check your tickets, and check them again. I had Revolutionary as one of several (along with the 4th place Normandy Invasion - "Die, Golden Soul, die, die!") boxed with the field in that pool, and at first and second glance it would have appeared to many that the ticket was a loser, rather than a 50:1 winner.Quote: ontariodealer1 example..2013,, orb and golden soul, neither one was offered in pool2, so the payout was field/field. Because of the rule that states a finish of field/field defaults to the next closest horse from the Pool in the finish order of the race to complete the Exacta, thus it paid field/revolutionary $102.20
By the way, notice Golden Soul has never run another decent race, anywhere? It isn't the first time Dallas Stewart has had one of those "what the hell was that?" one-off mystery performances.
Yes, plenty of this I think. So just like some "morning lines." And your application for racing secretary has just been moved to the top of the list. How are your Ouija Board skills? To that, also add in the pressure to accommodate some trainers (and sometimes some informal gamesmanship along the lines of "maybe I'll send him there, but I dunno...") to get the horses you want to have for a field that puts bottoms in seats and billfolds in line at betting windows. I vaguely recall that I've heard some formulas bandied about in the past, so many pounds for such and such a margin at the wire in such and such a comparative class level... but I think those carry less weight in it than a quarterhorse in the GP Turf Hcp.Quote: Keeneonebut sometimes I feel it involves a combination of tarot card readings, voodoo, and astronomical star alignments.
I have him at an AWD of 6.9f.Quote:Silver Dagger in the 9th race @ Gulfstream looked to have a good distance pedigree. A little late for the Derby party....
1. Firing Line
2. Dortmund
3. Rock Shandy
4. Hero Ten All
For the Withers, and I may still be recovering from the Super Bowl weekend hangover, but I'm going with the longshot General Bellamy. 1st time Lasix for him here and I'm hoping it will actually help here. I think he'll probably try to stay close to the pace this race unlike his last race, and I'd expect that to help as well. I'm not sure what to make of Classy Class, and El Kabeir just doesn't impress me that much. Pretty much a wild guess here..
1. General Bellamy
2. El Kabeir
3. Classy Class
4. Far From Over
Quote: KeeneoneA bit off topic....a question for DDead (or anyone else interested for that matter). How do Racing Secretaries develop the high weights in Handicap races? I am sure it requires years of experience filling races based on Pedigrees/Class/Past Performances, but sometimes I feel it involves a combination of tarot card readings, voodoo, and astronomical star alignments.
Example:
2/7 Gulfstream race #12 Gulfstream Park Turf H. Grade 1 (300k)
Imagining - 120 lbs. - Off for 2 months after a 7th place finish @ the Breeders Cup.
Mshawish - 118 lbs. - Just won a Grade 2 over the track.
Lochte - 117 lbs. - Just won a Grade 3 @ Tampa Bay and won this race last year.
I just do not understand this stuff. I like Imagining in this race BTW.
----------
Silver Dagger in the 9th race @ Gulfstream looked to have a good distance pedigree. A little late for the Derby party....
starts with this,
http://thoroughbredink.com/ScaleOfWeights.html
Yeah, and that would also be where it ends in most stakes which are a version of weight for age or scale weight and not handicaps, but often with some modifications written in to the conditions for automatic weight allowances such as "hasn't won a race at x-distance/class/surface since y-date" and suchlike. For example GP Race 5, the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes which is not a handicap:Quote: ontariodealerstarts with this,
http://thoroughbredink.com/ScaleOfWeights.html
Or the San Antonio in the 8th at Santa Anita, again a stakes which is not a handicap, so the racing secretary is not in the position of making any judgments on appropriate weights:Quote: Gulfstream ParkFor Four Year Olds And Upward. Weight: 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a graded stakes allowed 2 Lbs.; a sweepstakes on the turf, 4 Lbs.; of two races other than maiden or claiming, 6 Lbs.
Quote: Santa AnitaFor Four Year Olds And Upward. 123 Lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I or Grade II stake at One Mile or Over since August 7, 2014, allowed 3 Lbs.; Non-winners of a Grade I or Grade II stake at One Mile or Over OR Two Grade III stakes at One Mile or Over since February 7, 2014, allowed 5 Lbs.
Santa Anita race #3 (MSW - 1 1/16mile)
Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1) Won (Final time 1:44.41). Jockey + blinkers probably made the the difference in this one. A softish field also helped but Cyrus needs to keep improving, which he has every right to do as a three year old.
----------
Gulfstream race #4 (MSW - one turn mile)
Lieutenant Colonel won (Final time 1:38.31) holding off a fast closing Great Stuff.
Gulfstream race #6 (MSW - one turn mile)
10 - Danzig Moon (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 150/1) won (Final time 1:38.09) after stalking the pace. Really nice win by this Canadian bred runner.
----------
Laurel Park race #8 (AOC 35k - 1 1/16mile)
7 - Unrivaled (Wynn 250/1) - cross entered on the same day for the Withers. -Scratched from both races-
Should shorten even further for the roses now?
Quote: TomspurHuge win by Dortmund. I thought he was super impressive today.
Should shorten even further for the roses now?
Dortmund has been the betting favorite since the first pool and easily could be favored again after this race. That was the best prep race I have watched this year or last. Still hard for me to really separate the 2 of them. Gutsy comeback win for Dortmund but a great race by both. 2/7 Robert Lewis S. Santa Anita race#8 Video:
A couple of observations:
1 1/16 mile distance @ Santa Anita (run months apart)-
Robert Lewis Final time 1:42.20
BCup Juvenile Final time 1:41.91 (race won by Texas Red)
Front Runner S. Final time 1:41.95 (race won by American Pharoah)
Two races today-
The mile split with Dortmund/Firing Line: 1:35.54
The mile split with Shared Belief/California Chrome: 1:36.45
Far From Over (Wynn 60/1, W Hill 150/1) won (Final time: 1:43.93) after a really bad start where he almost went to his knees. Excluding the #6, I feel all the other runners ran OK in this race. Not real sure what to make of this one....
----------
Pletcher won the Withers and he has more going out on Sunday in a sprint @ Gulfstream. The PEIC rolls on....
3/8/15 - Gulfstream Park race #4 (AOC 75k 6 Furlongs)
3 - Stanford (W. Hill 200/1)
6 - Blame Jim (Wynn 150/1, W. Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1)
Both runners are coming off lengthy layoffs for their 3 year old debuts in a sprint.
Andy Beyer has given the Lewis a speed figure of 103, and the Withers is getting a 96. My opinion of the Derby prospects of the two who just treated us to that stirring duel for a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita is different than most. All things considered, for the probability of being significantly better when trying to accomplish the specific task of going ten furlongs three months from now, personally I'd prefer the one who just ran the snowy 96, even if he didn't first have to get up off his knees to do it.
My point about that is not to tout Far From Over in particular, but to add a note of cautious skepticism about the Derby prospects of some who have some significantly different characteristics than him in contrast to those more similar to him.
I'm going to invite any of y'all who may happen feel to like it to take a short stroll down memory lane for a minute... and twenty-two and four-fifths seconds. This is a maiden race that took place over two years ago. Notice the colt who is breaking out of the gate from post #1, in his first race at the time, who is by Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy), out of an Unbridled mare, who was 29:1 on the tote board.
He actually didn't manage to break his maiden until three months and three more tries later.
I also have those above, minus Bolo plus Texas Red and The Great War, boxed with one another and with the field in the Churchill KDFW exacta Pool #2, for varying amounts depending on relative value. Some of the most notable prospects that I've so far chosen to leave out entirely include: American Pharoah, Dortmund, Ocean Knight, and Upstart. All my tickets thus far are over 25:1 and most are in at prices much higher than that.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Field favored at 5-2
Quote: DRF
...<SNIP>...
Combined handle on Pool 2 was $448,598, with $340,126 bet to win and $108,472 in exactas. The total was up 18 percent over the $380,249 handled in Pool 2 last year but is well below the all-time single pool record of $631,304 set during the first pool of 2012.
...<SNIP>...
Pool 3 is set for Feb. 27-March 1 and Pool 4 for March 27-29. A single Kentucky Oaks futures pool will be offered concurrent to Derby Pool 3.
CLOSING ODDS for Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2
(No. Horse Trainer P1 odds P2 odds)
1. American Pharoah B.Baffert 12-1 10-1
2. Carpe Diem T.Pletcher 15-1 12-1
3. Competitive Edge T.Pletcher 48-1 37-1
4. Daredevil T.Pletcher 48-1 40-1
5. Dortmund B.Baffert 9-1 10-1
6. El Kabeir J.Terranova 74-1 39-1
7. Far Right R.Moquett 3-5(f) 48-1
8. Firing Line S.Callaghan 3-5(f) 35-1
9. Frosted K.McLaughlin 38-1 31-1
10. Gorgeous Bird I.Wilkes 3-5(f) 32-1
11. Imperia K.McLaughlin 27-1 24-1
12. International Star M.Maker 3-5(f) 44-1
13. Itsaknockout T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 30-1
14. J S Bach T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 69-1
15. Khozan T.Pletcher 3-5(f) 25-1
16. Lord Nelson B.Baffert 72-1 41-1
17. Mr. Z W.Lukas 47-1 44-1
18. Ocean Knight K.McLaughlin 3-5(f) 18-1
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho J.Cassidy 29-1 26-1
20. Prospect Park C.Sise 3/5(f) 35-1
21. Texas Red K.Desormeaux 14-1 9-1
22. The Great War W.Ward 72-1 40-1
23. Upstart R.Violette 53-1 12-1
24. Mutuel field (all others) n/a 3-5 5-2
(f) – denotes Pool 1 field entry
Todd Pletcher discusses details of recent works & his planned racing schedule for his stable of approximately 893,264,172 Derby nominated colts: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90037/pletcher-happy-with-florida-3-year-olds
The Field exactas looked much improved over the first pool. Field/Texas Red again was the lowest paying exacta in the pool @ $86.80 (vs $32.60 1st pool). A little surprised Texas Red is favored, but with a DD AWD of 8.0 perhaps I should start to respect him a little more for the Derby. Field seemed good value going from even money to 5/2. The public seems to think the Derby winner is already listed.
----------
2/8/15 - Gulfstream Park race #4 (AOC 75k 6 Furlongs)
3 - Stanford (W. Hill 200/1) Won.
6 - Blame Jim (Wynn 150/1, W. Hill 150/1, Westgate 150/1) Ran Second.
Pletcher ran one/two in this one.
----------
So what are the Top 5 runners not listed in the 2nd pool? My list:
2 - Bolo
3 - Mubtaahij
4 - Cyrus Alexander
5 - Far From Over
The things that give me some pause about Texas Red include how much hard racing he's already had (a consideration which I think you may have mentioned at some point) - not extreme at all and not as much as some others, and I think that is partly mitigated by some of it not being on hard dirt surfaces, but still... and I also have some misgivings about the trainer for this specific purpose. I like Keith Desormeaux and have a soft spot for folks from the old crafty cajun racing tradition (I lived in N'awlins for a little while long ago) and I don't want to be harshly critical of him generally. But. My data does have him at only a 13% win rate going long, much of it at tracks where fields of less than 8 are common in those races. Not terrible, but. For this? Eh, maybe, but.Quote: KeeneoneThe Field exactas looked much improved over the first pool. Field/Texas Red again was the lowest paying exacta in the pool @ $86.80 (vs $32.60 1st pool). A little surprised Texas Red is favored, but with a DD AWD of 8.0 perhaps I should start to respect him a little more for the Derby. Field seemed good value going from even money to 5/2. The public seems to think the Derby winner is already listed.
Quote: Keeneonenot listed in the 2nd pool...
1 - Take Charge Brandi
2 - Bolo
3 - Mubtaahij
4 - Cyrus Alexander
5 - Far From Over
I did really like what I saw in the...
...race. To my mind, nevermind the time or what speed rating he may get for that one; I thought he looked like one that's now becoming a professional racehorse from gate to stretch to wire, getting straightened out and responding now as if he may be thinking of doing this for a living one day.
Lemons into lemonade. Or was that an orange?
Meydan Racecourse, Thursday, 12 February 2015
UAE 2000 Guineas
TB - Group 3 1600M(a8F) - Dirt USD 250,000
----------
Another listed horse for Thursday 2/12/15:
Fairgrounds race #5 (MSW 1 mile 70 yards)
#7 - Hottap (W Hill 200/1)
This looks like he could possibly be fun; or not. Second in a decent maiden field as a juvenile last year at Keeneland, AWD 7.3f+, trained by Steve Asmussen, and all that looks appealing. But. That's also the last and only time he's hit the board. On Thursday he'll be making his 5th start in yet another maiden race. Five start maiden can't be what they had in mind when they bred Tapit to a mare who won 5 of 10 including multiple route stakes and a Grade 3 (on turf). The time for him to start paying the rent is right now.Quote: KeeneoneAnother listed horse for Thursday 2/12/15:
Fairgrounds race #5 (MSW 1 mile 70 yards)
#7 - Hottap (W Hill 200/1)
Quote: DrawingDeadDoes anyone have a good resource/site they might like to suggest for following a Dubai (U.A.E.) based horse/race like Mubtaahij?
emiratesracing.com
Just type his name in the search box of the site. You can watch both of his recent races and see his race history. I only went looking for the site/information after Tomspur's post and your analysis of his pedigree.
Quote: Keeneoneemiratesracing.com
Just type his name in the search box of the site. You can watch both of his recent races and see his race history. I only went looking for the site/information after Tomspur's post and your analysis of his pedigree.
EDIT to add: I *THINK* I've translated the post time of the 2000 Guineas to 9:40 AM Pacific. And I make it about an 8:5 shot that I've got that correct. Re-EDIT: I think I got that wrong. I think it is scheduled at 7:55 AM Pacific (7:55 PM local time at Meydan Racecourse, in Dubai (UAE)).
