2014 Kentucky Derby
Quote: speedycrapI seldom bet on big race because I am not a good handicapper. Usually I bet on show just to collect a few dollars. I wonder what fellow members think of this year Kentucky Derby. Winner and a sure Shower.
Still a little early. A clearer picture emerges after the March and early April prep races. The colts are growing fast. Some are not on the radar yet.
Quote: BuzzardHard to share thoughts about horses that have not yet shown potential. And those that have are odds against even starting in the Derby.
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 2 had 23 horses and the field bet. Of of the 23 listed maybe half get in…I've shared all my thoughts for now. Look for more s*** slinging from me as the Derby approaches.
Derby week is a potential gold mine. The beauty of para-mutual betting on a thing like the derby is the tote board often does not reflect the real odds. Lots of folks throwing money at jockey colors and such. A player that knows how to read a racing form can find plenty of bargains. Don't ignore the place and show pools, interesting opportunities pop up all the time.
I'll be at Red Rock on 3 May and should be pretty easy to spot, I'll be the one pretending he knows what he's doing.
Quote: 1arrowheaddrWait until after the Derby and bet NO on will there be a triple crown winner.
Currently in the Triple Crown Futures Pool it's -850 NO and +650 yes…….Will a horse win the Triple Crown?
for the last 34 years. What am i missing ?
Quote: BuzzardSomething does not look right. -850 NO and NO triple crown winner
for the last 34 years. What am i missing ?
It's been 36 years going on 37…..that's what you missing……..:-)
Hope, is what keeps -860 look like an overlay. Maybe it's the gamblers fallacy at work…….a Triple Crown winner is due…..hehe
Quote: treetopbuddyIt's been 36 years going on 37…..that's what you missing……..:-)
Hope, is what keeps -860 look like an overlay. Maybe it's the gamblers fallacy at work…….a Triple Crown winner is due…..hehe
Should go there and put $500 on it. For NO winner.
Hey,Wizard, do u have a Canadian bank account so I can email you $500 US????
Quote: BuzzardSomething does not look right. -850 NO and NO triple crown winner
for the last 34 years. What am i missing ?
The problem is that the Derby winner has an easier time in the Preakness typically. (As you know Buzz) So, you're betting against them winning the Belmont really. Which has been a pretty good bet! But if you're betting that much money to win $100, you don't want to have to worry about it that much, do you?
Quote: speedycrapYes it is a bit early . But then we have time to share our thoughts.
I'm always up for talking Derby November - May. But no one has impressed me so far. This weekend is a big one. I took the field at 4-5 in November on the future book, and I'm happy with it so far.
Quote: Sabretom2I've been to Churchill Downs for the derby several times, this will be our first derby in Las Vegas. Any experience enhancing suggestions?
Derby week is a potential gold mine. The beauty of para-mutual betting on a thing like the derby is the tote board often does not reflect the real odds. Lots of folks throwing money at jockey colors and such. A player that knows how to read a racing form can find plenty of bargains. Don't ignore the place and show pools, interesting opportunities pop up all the time.
I'll be at Red Rock on 3 May and should be pretty easy to spot, I'll be the one pretending he knows what he's doing.
I've been to Churchill and Vegas for the Derby. The only suggestion is to grab a good sportsbook spot early. An hour before the race, the sportsbook is pretty empty, then all of a sudden it gets as crowded as you'll ever see it. So get your spot and enjoy it. It's fun to see a lot of people interested in horse racing, even if it is 1-3 times a year..
Quote: aceofspadesAfter correctly picking Orb last year and not getting to the OTB to make the wager, I am refraining from betting this year.
After they cooled out Orb in the Preakness, he literally hung his head for several hours. in the grass turnout area. Within an hour after a race the racehorse has mostly recovered.. The Preakness race took a lot of him…..or maybe it was the Kentucky Derby that did him in……he wouldn't be the first.
Horses have only so many races in them…….He never ran back to Derby form. He's retired to stallion duties at historic Claiborne Farm.
Quote: treetopbuddyYo, FinsRule, Will Take Charge says……hee ha, hee ha, hee ha and hopes all is well with you. :-)
Dude, you said after a win in a minor stakes race that he was now worth $10 million. All I said was that he was going to have to win more to be worth that much. And he did, and then some, and now he's worth more than that.
I wasn't saying anything bad about the horse. We just disagreed on the worth of a horse who only had won a Grade II race.
Now, I would have probably bet you at 100-1 odds after the Belmont that WTC would be 3yo of the year, but you wouldn't have had faith in him at that point either.
Quote: treetopbuddyAfter they cooled out Orb in the Preakness, he literally hung his head for several hours. in the grass turnout area. Within an hour after a race the racehorse has mostly recovered.. The Preakness race took a lot of him…..or maybe it was the Kentucky Derby that did him in……he wouldn't be the first.
Horses have only so many races in them…….He never ran back to Derby form. He's retired to stallion duties at historic Claiborne Farm.
I was happy for Shug (I still cannot believe the skinny Sunday Silence could beat the muscular Easy Goer)
Quote: FinsRuleDude, you said after a win in a minor stakes race that he was now worth $10 million. All I said was that he was going to have to win more to be worth that much. And he did, and then some, and now he's worth more than that.
I wasn't saying anything bad about the horse. We just disagreed on the worth of a horse who only had won a Grade II race.
Now, I would have probably bet you at 100-1 odds after the Belmont that WTC would be 3yo of the year, but you wouldn't have had faith in him at that point either.
Will Take Charge 3 year old Champion…..who knew?
My beef with you was simply……You have no idea how to value a stallion. Period. Stick with trying to pick winning horses. How could you possibly know what Will Take Charge would be valued at either as a syndicate stallion or privately owned. BTW one of your posts directed to me could have been considered an insult. Water under the bridge.
But you're right, maybe someone would have paid 10 mil for WTC after that race, someone did pay 16 million for The Green Monkey.
Quote: FinsRuleCouldn't you saying "You have no idea how to value a stallion" be considered an insult? Saying you know something isn't the same as actually knowing.
But you're right, maybe someone would have paid 10 mil for WTC after that race, someone did pay 16 million for The Green Monkey.
This entire board is going to turn into a police state with everyone telling on one another in an effort to gain favor with the powers that be.
Quote: aceofspadesI was happy for Shug (I still cannot believe the skinny Sunday Silence could beat the muscular Easy Goer)
I was a big Easy Goer fan. Pat day had him too far back in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Day had way too much horse at the wire. A little payback of Easy in the Belmont.
Sunday Silence was a hugely successful stallion in Japan. Easy Goer met an early demise.
Quote: aceofspadesThis entire board is going to turn into a police state with everyone telling on one another in an effort to gain favor with the powers that be.
Agreed, I wasn't actually telling. I would never "tell" on anyone, because someone insulting me on the internet doesn't affect my life.
Quote: FinsRuleAgreed, I wasn't actually telling. I would never "tell" on anyone, because someone insulting me on the internet doesn't affect my life.
I was not being accusatory (don't report me LOL)
I was merely using your post as an example of how far things could be taken by a sensitive person. :-)
Quote: FinsRuleCouldn't you saying "You have no idea how to value a stallion" be considered an insult? Saying you know something isn't the same as actually knowing.
.
You don't know how to value a stallion. It's not an insult it's a fact. Yeah, I'm just s*** slinging.
Quote: treetopbuddyI was a big Easy Goer fan. Pat day had him too far back in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Day way too much horse at the wire. A little payback of Easy in the Belmont.
Sunday Silence was a hugely successful stallion in Japan. Easy Goer met an early demise.
I refused to trust Pat Day in any races after that Triple Crown…he wasted Easy Goer ("Patient" Pat Day ughhhhh)
But my all time favorite horse is still Personal Ensign (I still get goosebumps watching her nose out Winning Colors from out of nowhere)
Quote: aceofspadesI refused to trust Pat Day in any races after that Triple Crown…he wasted Easy Goer ("Patient" Pat Day ughhhhh)
But my all time favorite horse is still Personal Ensign (I still get goosebumps watching her nose out Winning Colors from out of nowhere)
Day would drive me crazy. He beat me when I bet him and beat me when I used another jockey.
Personal Ensign turned out to be a great broodmare.
Quote: BuzzardSomething does not look right. -850 NO and NO triple crown winner
for the last 34 years. What am i missing ?
3 reasons: History, market price, and the alternative bet.
First, History
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Triple_Crown_of_Thoroughbred_Racing
The TC races have been run in what has essentially been the modern format since 1931. That gives us 83 chances. We have had success in 9 of those. That gives us 9/83 which is not far off from those odds. Now you say "But there has been a 35 year (1979-2013) drought." That is not outlandish for something which occurs about 1 in 9 times. Long streaks like that are not surprising. For instance there was a 24 year drought from 48-73.
Second, Market price
While most bookies are not afraid of taking a position against squares, they would rather risk free profit. Hence, they do not want to be the only ones holding the bag in the case of a TC. They want some sharp money to hit the -850 so that they some friends standing there with them. Even if a fair line would be closer to -1200, if they are offering +900 and -1200 and getting 1:1 money they will want to move that line so that they are not horrifically exposed. Bookies can close (or be fired) if they get crushed. They are willing to give up some EV for lower variance.
Third, alternative bets
One could consider waiting until after the KD to make this bet. Again it is well known that squares crush the yes TC and the KD winner in the next race. So instead of laying the -850 today and getting paid in May; you could wait until after the KD and fade the KD winner in the Preakness. Either:
-You win and probably get paid way better than 9.5 for 8.5 and don't have your money outlaid for 4 months
or
-You lose and then you can guarantee that you will be able to fade such tremendous square action on the Belmont that you might as well be getting -300 on "No safety in the SB." Again without your money outlaid for months.
These are reasons that number is not bigger than -850 right now.
Edit: me no spelin gud
Quote: endermike3 reasons: History, market price, and the alternative bet.
First, History
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Triple_Crown_of_Thoroughbred_Racing
The TC races have been run in what has essentially been the modern format since 1931. That gives us 83 chances. We have had success in 9 of those. That gives us 9/83 which is not far off from those odds. Now you say "But there has been a 35 year (1979-2013) drought." That is not outlandish for something which occurs about 1 in 9 times. Long streaks like that are not surprising. For instance there was a 24 year drought from 48-73.
Second, Market price
While most bookies as not afraid of taking a position against squares, they would rather risk free profit. Hence, they do not want to be the only ones holding the bag in the case of a TC. They want some sharp money to hit the -850 so that they some friends standing there with them. Even if a fair line would be closer to -1200, if they are offering +900 and -1200 and getting 1:1 money they will want to move that line so that they are not horrifically exposed. Bookies can close (or be fired) if they get crushed. They are willing to give up some EV for lower variance.
Third, alternative bets
One could consider waiting until after the KD to make this bet. Again it is well known that squares crush the yes TC and the KD winner in the next race. So instead of laying the -850 today and getting paid in May; you could wait until after the KD and fade the KD winner in the Preakness. Either:
-You win and probably get paid way better than 9.5 for 8.5 and don't have your money outlaid for 4 months
or
-You lose and then you can guarantee that you will be able to fade such tremendous square action on the Belmont that you might as well be getting -300 on "No safety in the SB." Again without your money outlaid for months.
These are reasons that number is not bigger than -850 right now.
great postQuote: treetopbuddy
Anyway, my fancy makes his seasonal debut this Saturday on the Fountain of Youth undercard in a very hot allowance plate. Mexicoma has drawn 10 from 10 which is not ideal and Joel Rosario will have to be at his best to make an impact here, however the horse has been training exceedingly well and I still feel like he is a big player on May 5th.
With the Fountain of Youth also running on Saturday we should get at least a little clearer on where we are headed!
I'm hoping Mexicoma runs big here and then perhaps goes the Tampa Derby route or runs back at Keeneland in one of the qualifying races, not sure which one though. He may also land up going to the Wood, no idea!
Enjoy!
Quote: BuzzardPlus you can always cut your loses by betting on the Belmont if you have a TC possibility. Can't do that on NO safety !
True, but I would imagine you would be lucky to get a horse who has taken the first two at +200. So you will be taking a heavy loss.
The real upside on NO TC is if the winner is a longshot (so you can bet it for arbitrage) or a horse which wins in weird conditions (slop) and can't beat the speedsters in the sunshine.
That said, I agree No is the way to bet this if you have to. However, right now it is a stay away (unless you have nothing better to do with your money). I do think you will see better prices and opportunities if you wait.
I have made some Exacta futures in hopes of a big score for $1, here they are:
Commissioner & Rise Up for $2600
Rise Up & Commissioner for $4000
Tapiture & Strong Mandate for $875
Tapiture & Vicar's in Trouble for $1800
Cairo Prince & Tonalist for $750
Tonalist & Cairo Prince for $900
Rise Up & Tonalist for $4200
Tonalist & Rise Up for $3600
If I can get one of these with both horses in the Derby, I'll consider it a success.
I kinda like your general idea. If a few of those are live on derby day you can probably sell part of your interest in the ticket(s) to others and cover your principal.
Quote: endermikeYou listed 6 horses. That gives 30 exactas, any reason you didn't place all 30?
I kinda like your general idea. If a few of those are live on derby day you can probably sell part of your interest in the ticket(s) to others and cover your principal.
A couple of reasons - The first set - Rise Up & Commissioner was made in November, the rest were made two weeks ago. 2 - I was looking at the pool a few minutes before closing and saw good prices on the last 4, so I jumped in. The ones with Tapiture I made earlier in the week, and the value is not so good on those.
EDIT - Should have said value "was" not so good. With his win, he is now a top 10 horse and the value is much better.
I got an immediate hit on Cairo Prince when I looked at the race in November (I have a prop bet with another member set months ago). If my psychic hotline is working (and I have a good one) I recommend you wheel that horse every way you can. He's gonna do it.
Quote: beachbumbabsFins,
I got an immediate hit on Cairo Prince when I looked at the race in November (I have a prop bet with another member set months ago). If my psychic hotline is working (and I have a good one) I recommend you wheel that horse every way you can. He's gonna do it.
You had better put enough money on the prince to at least win the $5 outlay of the wager :)
I also fancy him a little biy and if he makes the final field he will be my exacta horse with Mexicoma. I'm fixing on cleaning up this year just like I did in 2011 :)
Im not impressed by anyone so far, yes its early, I might take a shot a some big numbers when the race goes off.
Race before Mutuel WPS pool $190,000. Race after $180,000. Honor Code Race (5 horse field)$550,000
Looks like bridge jumpers dumped 400K to show on Honor Code. Ah, the instant 5%. LOL
I don't like speed horses at Churchill Downs especially with it almost always inveriably being a little slow on the day due to seasonal rains in KY.
I see Shared Belief is off the trail.
