Poll

1 vote (4%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (4%)
1 vote (4%)
3 votes (12%)
2 votes (8%)
1 vote (4%)
4 votes (16%)
2 votes (8%)
10 votes (40%)

25 members have voted

terapined
terapined
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:22:32 PM permalink
This may be the biggest NFL point spread. Peyton is on fire and the Jags, well if fans are demanding Tebow, things are pretty bad.
Since 1989, highest spread ever have been 23 1/2. Its happened twice. Will we have a record? If Peyton has a big game next week and the Jags lose big again, could be one for the record books spread wise.
Does the Wiz have it in him to bet against this Years record setting Peyton if he gets an incredible money line offer?
I predict a record spread simply due to Peyton will probably smash multiple passing records this year. He's just starting to get to know his receivers, scary for the Jags.
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ahiromu
ahiromu
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:28:50 PM permalink
I voted 25, but I'm more interested in the money line.
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GWAE
GWAE
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:42:15 PM permalink
early opinion is Vegas wants it to be 28 but they are hesitant to put a line up like that.

Money line at +4500?
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KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:45:49 PM permalink
I would be a bit surprised if Vegas hangs a moneyline on a 28 point favorite.
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GWAE
GWAE
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:47:27 PM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

I would be a bit surprised if Vegas hangs a moneyline on a 28 point favorite.



I was thinking the same thing.
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KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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September 30th, 2013 at 6:47:45 PM permalink
betonline.com is taking bets now on the game.

Currently, Denver -25
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Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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September 30th, 2013 at 7:00:13 PM permalink
The following very simple method will usually predict a point spread to within 3 points, and a total much closer.

Based on the first four games:

Average points scored by Denver = 44.75
Average points given up by Denver = 22.75
Average points scored by Jack. = 7.75 (that is sad).
Average points given up by Jack. = 32.25

Expected points by Denver = average(average Denver points, average Jack. points given up) = 38.5
Expected points by Jack. = average(average Jack points, average Denver points given up) = 15.25

Before considering home field advantage, the spread should thus be 38.5-15.25 = 23.25.

Home field advantage is worth 3 points. So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home. Denver is playing at home that game, so my answer is 23.25+1.5 = 24.75. Round it up to 25. I put the fair money line at +2100.
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Pokeraddict
Pokeraddict
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September 30th, 2013 at 7:33:43 PM permalink
Quote:

Since 1989, highest spread ever have been 23 1/2



Not sure where this info came from but in 2007 the Patriots were -24 vs Eagles and -24.5 vs Jets. The underdog covered both of them.
Nareed
Nareed
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September 30th, 2013 at 7:43:13 PM permalink
Is anyone else reminded of SNL's mid-80s "Superfans" recurring sketch?

"Peyton Manning alone against the Jags."

"Manning by two hundred points!"
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Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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September 30th, 2013 at 7:46:08 PM permalink
More importantly...will there be a safety? (sorry wiz, couldn't resist)

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