## Poll

 17 or less 1 vote (4%) 18 No votes (0%) 19 1 vote (4%) 20 1 vote (4%) 21 3 votes (12%) 22 2 votes (8%) 23 1 vote (4%) 24 4 votes (16%) 25 2 votes (8%) 26 + 10 votes (40%)

25 members have voted

michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
• Posts: 2112
September 30th, 2013 at 11:46:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The following very simple method will usually predict a point spread to within 3 points, and a total much closer.

Based on the first four games:

Average points scored by Denver = 44.75
Average points given up by Denver = 22.75
Average points scored by Jack. = 7.75 (that is sad).
Average points given up by Jack. = 32.25

Expected points by Denver = average(average Denver points, average Jack. points given up) = 38.5
Expected points by Jack. = average(average Jack points, average Denver points given up) = 15.25

Before considering home field advantage, the spread should thus be 38.5-15.25 = 23.25.

Home field advantage is worth 3 points. So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home. Denver is playing at home that game, so my answer is 23.25+1.5 = 24.75. Round it up to 25. I put the fair money line at +2100.

I don't understand this ...." So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home" , I think your forgetting about the neutral field aspect

Yes home field is worth 3 points, but you're method is only giving it 1.5 points. On a neutral field the spread would be -23.25, in Denver -26.25, and if the game was played in Jacksonville then the line is -20.25. Obviously they'd round those off.
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
• Posts: 3834
October 7th, 2013 at 6:54:25 AM permalink
Overnight line is 28 at LVH and William Hill. This is the largest NFL line ever.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22250
October 7th, 2013 at 7:24:58 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I don't understand this ...." So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home" , I think your forgetting about the neutral field aspect

Yes home field is worth 3 points, but you're method is only giving it 1.5 points. On a neutral field the spread would be -23.25, in Denver -26.25, and if the game was played in Jacksonville then the line is -20.25. Obviously they'd round those off.

I think you're forgetting about it. Home field is worth 1.5 points compared to a neutral field, and 3 points compared to an enemy field. My calculation of a neutral field spread was 23.25. Since Denver is the home team, add 1.5: 23.25 + 1.5 = 24.75. If Jack were at home I would subtract 1.5: 23.25-1.5=21.75. The difference is 24.75=212.75 = 3, what the home field advantage is worth compared to an enemy field.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Perdition
Joined: Sep 3, 2013
• Posts: 610
October 7th, 2013 at 9:15:04 AM permalink
I wonder if the 28 line will make it through the day. Probably going have have a ton of action.
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 7004
October 7th, 2013 at 9:23:40 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think you're forgetting about it. Home field is worth 1.5 points compared to a neutral field, and 3 points compared to an enemy field. My calculation of a neutral field spread was 23.25. Since Denver is the home team, add 1.5: 23.25 + 1.5 = 24.75. If Jack were at home I would subtract 1.5: 23.25-1.5=21.75. The difference is 24.75=212.75 = 3, what the home field advantage is worth compared to an enemy field.

I disagree. Generally, in the NFL, home field is worth 3 points compared to a neutral field, not 1.5 points. So two even teams playing at a neutral field is listed as a pick'em game. If either team is at home, the home team becomes a 3 point favorite, they do not become a 1.5 point favorite. Not relevant to this exact discussion, but there are certain fields that were considered to be worth as much as 4 points, and others as little as 2.5 points. In college I believe the high a field can be worth is 5 points to the home team. Astute gamblers know which home field is worth more. Perhaps this can be another "Wizard homework project" which might lead to some advantage plays!
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 7004
October 7th, 2013 at 9:25:56 AM permalink
Quote: Perdition

I wonder if the 28 line will make it through the day. Probably going have have a ton of action.

I can assure you it must be the first time a team that gave up 500 yards passing the week before is a 20+ point favorite!

As someone who is around 3-20 in picks, me saying I love the Jags +28 just doesn't carry a lot of weight......
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
• Posts: 1264
October 7th, 2013 at 2:31:03 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

... So two even teams playing at a neutral field is listed as a pick'em game. If either team is at home, the home team becomes a 3 point favorite, they do not become a 1.5 point favorite.

Agreed. That's always how I've understood it to be.
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
• Posts: 5444
October 7th, 2013 at 3:07:48 PM permalink
The Wizard was cited on Deadspin.com and they even made a nice graph of his data.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
• Posts: 1262
October 7th, 2013 at 3:09:56 PM permalink
Quote: Perdition

I wonder if the 28 line will make it through the day. Probably going have have a ton of action.

Looks like it's down to 27 at William Hill and 27.5 at LVH.
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
• Posts: 2112
October 7th, 2013 at 3:39:50 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I disagree. Generally, in the NFL, home field is worth 3 points compared to a neutral field, not 1.5 points. s!

Yes, this is true.

Evidenced by a few years ago when the cowboys and eagles played twice in three weeks. The game in Dallas was dallas -6, the game in Philly was a pkem

Wizard, I believe if you ask one of your sportsbook guys, he will confirm that home field is worth 3 points from a nuetral field.