Straight Pick Consensus (Confidence = 2)
-----------------------------------------------
24 Kansas City Chiefs
23 New England Patriots
19 Houston Texans
19 Seattle Seahawks
14 New Orleans Saints
13 Denver Broncos
13 Philadelphia Eagles
10 San Diego Chargers
9 Detroit Lions
6 Atlanta Falcons
6 Jacksonville Jaguars
4 Arizona Cardinals
4 Dallas Cowboys
4 Indianapolis Colts
4 New York Jets
4 Oakland Raiders
3 Baltimore Ravens
3 Chicago Bears
3 Tennessee Titans
2 Carolina Panthers
2 Cincinnati Bengals
2 Green Bay Packers
2 Miami Dolphins
1 New York Giants
1 San Francisco 49ers
1 St Louis Rams
Over / Under Consensus (Confidence = 2)
------------------------------------------------
Over/Under
4/1 Texans @ 49ers
4/0 Chiefs @ Titans
3/0 Saints @ Bears
2/1 Hawks @ Colts
2/1 Eagles @ Giants
2/1 Broncos @ Cowboys
1/2 Lions @ Packers
2/0 Ravens @ Dolphins
1/0 Jags @ Rams
0/1 Chargers @ Raiders
Quote: terapinedOverall the action among us is very lopsided in just about every game. I'd hate to be a bookie taking our action.
Either Our group will crush this weekend or get crushed.
If win half, lose half, that's the same as having even action on both sides. That's how the books see it.
It's a myth that books have equal action on both sides. It rarely happens.
They have 11/10 on their side. That's all that matters.
I think I somehow scrolled to the wrong week of Pinnacle numbers in the WoV Official thread, Ed. I am sooo dead. Sigh....
Edit; Yeah, that's what I did. I started with the post that listed only the over/under, noticed that the Vikes didn't have a line so must be bye week, scrolled up looking for the lines, ended up on the wrong week, went; "Hey, the Vikes are playing after all!" and did the whole sheet off that post. I guess I'm completely screwed for this week. I don't know if I can take this as my bye week or if it even makes a difference whether I did, mathematically. Crud. I so wanted to catch Buzzard.
Quote: beachbumbabsOh, crap!!!! I just saw this.
I think I somehow scrolled to the wrong week of Pinnacle numbers in the WoV Official thread, Ed. I am sooo dead. Sigh....
I'm guessing Mission will void all five picks, and give you a full bye week, even though one pick is actually valid. (That's what I would do.)
That's ok. Like most others you will be saying wait till next year soon.
And thanks to Acesofspades, I now have to send you a check every month. GRRRRRR !
Quote: BuzzardI know babs darling. I found out too late a man chases a woman till she catches him.
And thanks to Acesofspades, I now have to send you a check every month. GRRRRRR !
Disclaimer to the 2 PM'ers asking and other casual readers,
Buzz and I are forum buddies, have never met, and have nothing going on the side in real life. He is a happily married grandfather, and I am a happily divorced woman. It's a running joke that he started and I accepted. We are both Merrie Pranksters in the archaic and hopefully eternal sense.
Nothing like a bitter ex-wife.
Quote: beachbumbabsDisclaimer to the 2 PM'ers asking and other casual readers,
Buzz and I are forum buddies, have never met, and have nothing going on the side in real life. He is a happily married grandfather, and I am a happily divorced woman. It's a running joke that he started and I accepted. We are both Merrie Pranksters in the archaic and hopefully eternal sense.
Just when I thought were gonna have to come up with a cute name for this couple, like Bradgelina...I was going to suggest BeachBuzz since it rhymes with peachfuzz
Quote: KeyserSozeIf win half, lose half, that's the same as having even action on both sides. That's how the books see it.
It's a myth that books have equal action on both sides. It rarely happens.
They have 11/10 on their side. That's all that matters.
So far so good for a bookie if he handled our afternoon action for just straight picks.
129 picks x 11 bucks equals 1419.00 bet.
63 winners early games x 21 equals 1323.00
Bookie clears 96.00
Quote: boymimboGood weeks so far for Vendman1 (3/3), FrGamble (4/4). Looks like StrictlyAP will maintain his lead at 4/5 so far -- courage to pick that Over with Confidence on the Eagles/Giants game.
Don't forget about me! 4/5 with ATL on Monday.
I'm lurking in the middle of the pack, but heating up with 8-2-1 over the last two weeks.
That's what you call perfection, baby!
Quote: EdCollinsI'm guessing Mission will void all five picks, and give you a full bye week, even though one pick is actually valid. (That's what I would do.)
EdCollins,
You have guessed right, this week shall constitute BBB's skip week.
I'm switching it up, no longer betting as the gambler who bets on who I think will win which isn't working for me.
Instead going to make picks as a football fan picking who I want to win as a fan.
Probabbly same result, I'm hopeless.
At least Yahoo is sending 120.00 into my paypal account for winning 1st place in a money fantasy baseball league which I'll probally be sending most of that to our winner at the rate I'm going.
Quote: terapinedI'm right up there with sucking. Every single week 500 or worse performance.
I'm switching it up, no longer betting as the gambler who bets on who I think will win which isn't working for me.
Instead going to make picks as a football fan picking who I want to win as a fan.
Probabbly same result, I'm hopeless.
At least Yahoo is sending 120.00 into my paypal account for winning 1st place in a money fantasy baseball league which I'll probally be sending most of that to our winner at the rate I'm going.
I'm going to put the names of all of the teams in a hat and draw them out, teams resulting in a Doey-Don't Pick will be resolved on a first team picked basis.
J/K, nothing to do but keep trying.
If nothing else, I know how to go 1-4. Maybe I'll catch a break somewhere and go 2-3 one of these weeks?
Late yesterday afternoon I was 2-2... with a single two-point Confidence Pick on the line for the Sunday night game. And since 4-2 is SOOOO much nicer than 2-4, I had a level of interest in that game I otherwise wouldn't have had.
But of course I like the Texans and of course it wasn't even close, and so of course I sucked again, giving me a 2-4 weekend result, instead of a respectable 4-2.
The good news is it's still early in the season. :)
The bad news is it might get worse! :(
Looks like I'll be 4-2
Quote: terapinedStandings after week 5? Not in contention, just curious where a I stand. From the comments, I seem to have alot of company below 500
These SHOULD be the standings, I believe. Mission or someone else will confirm. If I've made a mistake, I'm sure someone will catch it.
(This is my first "table" in this forum, so hopefully I didn't screw it up.)
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
StrictlyAP | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | - |
TheCessPit | 17 | 11 | 60.71% | $5.95 |
BoyMimbo | 17 | 12 | 58.62% | $8.05 |
Buzzard | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $8.33 |
Malaru | 16 | 12 | 57.14% | $9.52 |
JML24 | 14 | 11 | 56.00% | $10.67 |
10DollarBri | 13 | 11 | 54.17% | $12.50 |
AyeCarumba | 15 | 13 | 53.57% | $13.10 |
BeachBumBabs | 12 | 11 | 52.17% | $14.49 |
Miplet | 12 | 11 | 52.17% | $14.49 |
RDW4POTUS | 14 | 13 | 51.85% | $14.81 |
DeeDubbs | 15 | 14 | 51.72% | $14.94 |
Boz | 12 | 12 | 50.00% | $16.67 |
Jon | 10 | 10 | 50.00% | $16.67 |
MidWestAP | 8 | 8 | 50.00% | $16.67 |
Vendman1 | 13 | 13 | 50.00% | $16.67 |
FRGamble | 12 | 13 | 48.00% | $18.67 |
JohnZimbo | 12 | 14 | 46.15% | $20.51 |
JW17 | 11 | 13 | 45.83% | $20.83 |
KMUMF | 11 | 13 | 45.83% | $20.83 |
EdCollins | 12 | 15 | 44.44% | $22.22 |
Paradigm | 12 | 15 | 44.44% | $22.22 |
SteelDCo | 10 | 13 | 43.48% | $23.19 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 10 | 13 | 43.48% | $23.19 |
EdgeLooker | 12 | 16 | 42.86% | $23.81 |
OdiousGambit | 10 | 14 | 41.67% | $25.00 |
Ten2Win | 12 | 17 | 41.38% | $25.29 |
ZoomZoom8 | 11 | 16 | 40.74% | $25.93 |
Wizard | 10 | 15 | 40.00% | $26.67 |
DuckManKilla | 11 | 17 | 39.29% | $27.38 |
KeyserSoze | 9 | 15 | 37.50% | $29.17 |
Terapined | 9 | 15 | 37.50% | $29.17 |
Rstrata | 7 | 12 | 36.84% | $29.82 |
Mission146 | 8 | 14 | 36.36% | $25.00 |
BeardGoat | 8 | 15 | 34.78% | $31.88 |
Knuckleball3 | 9 | 18 | 33.33% | $33.33 |
TGarrettCPA | 10 | 20 | 33.33% | $33.33 |
FourFiveFace | 9 | 19 | 32.14% | $34.52 |
Aluisio | 7 | 20 | 25.93% | $40.74 |
AssWhooperMcDaddy | 7 | 20 | 25.93% | $40.74 |
NCFatCat | 6 | 20 | 23.08% | $43.59 |
SOOPOO | 5 | 24 | 17.24% | $49.43 |
MinnesotaJoe | 0 | 5 | 0.00% | $66.67 |
I'm going to have the Official Standings up tomorrow, I apologize for the inconvenience, but the file is on my USB port, which I forgot at home. I should start keeping that thing on my keychain!
Creating that table took me at least 20 minutes... and it seemed like 30. (I also wasn't even sure I was doing it correctly.)
No more. The latest version of the calculator (1.42) now includes an optional switch to create that table for the user automatically.
If desired, the program creates a small text file in the root folder of your c:\ drive. The contents of the text file contain the current standings, along with the Wizard's formatting codes to display the data in a table. The entire contents of the text file should be cut and pasted here in this forum.
http://www.edcollins.com/wov_nfl_football_contest_calculator_version_1.42.xlsm
(This latest version contains all of the predictions and final NFL scores up through Week 5.)
The Week 5 Results can be found here, with the Standings immediately below:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post277205
1.) At 67-104 Regular Picks, that was just a God-Awful week with us going .392. Confidence Picks gave us a bit of an improvement, going 15-9 for .625 resulting in an overall record of 82-113 for .421.
2.) Our new overall record for Regular Picks is 376/483 for .438, which is worse than the .449 after last week, but our Confidence Picks caught up with 46-59 also making them .438. Including Confidence Picks, our overall record was .442 after last week, so we still fall a bit in the grand scheme of things.
3.) Positive Variance to all for Week 6, Lines will be posted in roughly seven hours.
As an aid to the forum members, i am pre-announcing my confidence pick this week as the Bengals.
Quote: thecesspitBuzz, Buzz, Buzz.... what happened?
I was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.
Quote: BuzzardI was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.
I am so busted....;)
Quote: SOOPOOHello friends. Can someone tell me how many standard deviations I am south of a random guesser? I'm 5 up, 24 down. I am very consistent, by the way. I can be counted on to get one of my 5 picks correct each and every week. Fortunately for whomever I will end up paying, that pick is never my confidence pick.
As an aid to the forum members, i am pre-announcing my confidence pick this week as the Bengals.
Using a BiNomial distribution.... 5 from 29 correct coin flip guesses or less is 0.027%. Or 1 in 3662
10 or less is 6.8% or 1 in 14.
So yeah, that's pretty unlikely. However, given 50 players, there's a 1.5% chance someone would have only 5 correct guesses out of 29.
Quote: BuzzardI was distracted. Babs was talking about us getting back together. But that ended once my alimony check cleared.
I hope she keeps it up :)
Oh well. You'll come around?
The Week 6 Lines have been posted, the source is Pinnacle, of course:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/3/#post277425
I think I'm going with tea leaves this week, it was either that or try a crystal ball, but tea's cheaper.
Quote: thecesspitNo over/under?
Did I really do that again?
I'm sorry, I'm really busy trying to learn Excel today, so I'm getting distracted. I'll fix that now. I don't know how to ask the computer questions, and you're not allowed to use words, because that would be too easy.
Give me two minutes!
Why is it that, when you are typing something but there is something else in front of it, that every character you type disappears a character in front of your cursor, but usually this doesn't happen? It's a serious pain in the ass when it does happen, though, because you end up having to re-type an entire paragraph just to fix one word. How do I make that never happen?
Quote: MalaruThat is because your insert key is turned off- just hit 'insert' when that happens and it will insert additional characters instead of overwrite them.
Let me test it.
John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt, his name is my name, too.
Nice!
Thanks, Malaru!!!
EDIT: I suppose that would lead me to ask: why should there exist an Insert key to be mistakenly turned off in the first place?