Quote: EdCollinsUnfortunately, as I recall, Babs was forced to take a bye earlier in the season so I THINK that means she must take an 0-5 this week. (If so, sorry Babs.)
I agree, Ed; my bad, and those are the rules. I still have time to recover. Best of luck to the top bunch, but I ain't done yet!
Quote: EdCollinsYou can grade the picks even before the games have started.
So how did I do? Another 1-4 week?
Quote: KeyserSozeSo how did I do? Another 1-4 week?
Ha ha! Good one.
Nope, much better! You're .500 right now! :)
Quote: Mission146Boz, Miplet, BeachBumBabs and NCFatCat all appear to be skipping this week.
fyi... I just now noticed NCFatCat skipped last week also.
This is what I have for the current standings.
For those of you reading this, please check your own totals for accuracy. It looks to be correct. Mission, obviously, will confirm everything sometime after tomorrow night's game. Note that these current standings include an 0-5 forfeit week for Babs.
Congrats to Knuckleball, 'Mimbo, and 'Carumba for a nice week.
5-1: Knuckleball3, BoyMimbo, AyeCarumba
4-2: ZoomZoom8, Wizard
3-2: Paradigm, Mission146, KeyserSoze. Beardgoat
3-3: StrictlyAP, SooPoo, Rstrata, Malaru, FRGamble, FourFiveFace, Edgelooker, EdCollins, DuckManKilla, Aluisio
2-3: YouCanBetOnThat, Terapined, OdiousGambit, MidWestAP, JohnZimbo
2-4: Ten2Win, SteelDCo. JW17, DeeDubbs, AssWhooperMcDaddy
1-4: Kmumf, Buzzard
1-5: TGarrettCPA, RDW4Potus, JML24, 10DollarBri
0-5: Jon, BeachBumBabs
0-6: Vendman1, TheCesspit
(The latest version of the grading program produces these totals and the formatting codes to display the table below.)
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
StrictlyAP | 25 | 11 | 69.44% | - |
AyeCarumba | 23 | 17 | 57.50% | $11.94 |
BoyMimbo | 23 | 17 | 57.50% | $11.94 |
Malaru | 22 | 17 | 56.41% | $13.03 |
TheCessPit | 22 | 17 | 56.41% | $13.03 |
Boz | 16 | 13 | 55.17% | $14.27 |
Buzzard | 18 | 16 | 52.94% | $16.50 |
Wizard | 19 | 18 | 51.35% | $18.09 |
RDW4POTUS | 20 | 19 | 51.28% | $18.16 |
ZoomZoom8 | 20 | 19 | 51.28% | $18.16 |
MidWestAP | 13 | 13 | 50.00% | $19.44 |
Miplet | 14 | 14 | 50.00% | $19.44 |
FRGamble | 15 | 16 | 48.39% | $21.06 |
EdgeLooker | 19 | 21 | 47.50% | $21.94 |
JML24 | 17 | 19 | 47.22% | $22.22 |
KeyserSoze | 16 | 18 | 47.06% | $22.39 |
DeeDubbs | 19 | 22 | 46.34% | $23.10 |
Ten2Win | 19 | 22 | 46.34% | $23.10 |
Knuckleball3 | 18 | 21 | 46.15% | $23.29 |
10DollarBri | 16 | 19 | 45.71% | $23.73 |
JW17 | 16 | 19 | 45.71% | $23.73 |
SteelDCo | 16 | 19 | 45.71% | $23.73 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 15 | 18 | 45.45% | $23.99 |
Paradigm | 17 | 21 | 44.74% | $24.71 |
Vendman1 | 17 | 21 | 44.74% | $24.71 |
JohnZimbo | 16 | 20 | 44.44% | $25.00 |
BeardGoat | 15 | 19 | 44.12% | $25.33 |
BeachBumBabs | 14 | 20 | 41.18% | $28.27 |
KMUMF | 14 | 20 | 41.18% | $28.27 |
EdCollins | 16 | 23 | 41.03% | $28.42 |
DuckManKilla | 16 | 24 | 40.00% | $29.44 |
Jon | 12 | 18 | 40.00% | $29.44 |
OdiousGambit | 13 | 21 | 38.24% | $31.21 |
Mission146 | 12 | 20 | 37.50% | $25.00 |
Rstrata | 11 | 19 | 36.67% | $32.78 |
Terapined | 12 | 22 | 35.29% | $34.15 |
TGarrettCPA | 14 | 28 | 33.33% | $36.11 |
FourFiveFace | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $36.94 |
Aluisio | 12 | 27 | 30.77% | $38.68 |
SOOPOO | 12 | 29 | 29.27% | $40.18 |
AssWhooperMcDaddy | 11 | 27 | 28.95% | $40.50 |
NCFatCat | 6 | 20 | 23.08% | $46.37 |
MinnesotaJoe | 0 | 5 | 0.00% | $69.44 |
Totals | 674 | 836 | 44.64% | $1,101.26 |
Quote: Mission146Just for the record, NCFatCat only absorbs the 0-5 in the event that he chooses to continue. Otherwise, NCFatCat's record may remain frozen as it was prior to this week.
Ah, got it.
Table edited.
Quote: FrGambleMan the Wizard has come storming back. My own secret little goal is to finish ahead of the main man Mike.
I smell a wager forming. I already proudly have a rosary, so how about a simple statue of the Virgin Mary against your choice of:
1. Framed print of Dogs Playing Poker.
2. I'll make a YouTube video of myself saying five Hail Marys and two Act of Contritions.
3. An antique Maryland license plate. Meaning it will be at least 50 years old.
I'm open to other suggestions.
On another topic, I see as a group we're going 674-836. Assuming we were all randomly picking, the odds of results that bad would be 1 in 65,000. I suspect others are copying my strategy last year of taking advantage of soft lines.
I realize that 5 picks in general is the average number for many competitions.
But in reality ...does anyone think the percent would be higher if people could bet their top 2 or 3?
Are confidence picks at a higher percent?
also, as an aside,(and the reason I only put my money down a hour before the games on sunday).......friday is a big day for the announcement of not playing due to injury, as well as gametime decision holdouts. Making picks earlier to me in a non competition situation is counter productive.
so does picking 5 under those conditions lend itself to lower percentages.?
Quote: LarrySAre confidence picks at a higher percent?
I'm at work and I don't have the figures in front of me, but as I recall, Confidence Picks were at a lower percent.
I think Confidence Picks were 41 "point something" percent and Regular picks were 45 "point something" percent.
I know it goes without saying that you would give a good and honorable place at home for the image of the Blessed Mother, but since I am confident I will win it won't really matter. :)
The updated Standings can be found here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post282327
With the Week 7 Results above.
1.) We did not have a particularly good week this week with Regular Picks going 75-89 for .457 (Sadly, that actually pulls Regular Picks up by a small fraction) and Confidence Picks went 8-18 for .308. Overall, our record was 83-107 for .437.
2.) This brings our overall record on Regular Picks to 548-655 for .455 and Confidence Picks to 63-88 for .417. In total, we are 611-743 for .451. Our current average is about 193 games per week, so we'd need a record of 163-30 to end up at 774-773 overall.
3.) I don't really pay any attention to everyone's picks when I make my own, which is evident by the fact that I am presently running worse than our average, but I think I might try a new system of just fading Confidence Picks!
This week's Lines have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post282330
Out of four home dogs, three are Jacksonville, Minnesota and St. Louis, yuck! Jacksonville plays without a team every week, Minnesota went ahead and played without a quarterback last week, and St. Louis lost their quarterback last week.
35 games, >58% is a 21-14 record. Chance of getting that (or better) at random is 15%
Chance of of only having one hit when 44 take a go at 15% of exactly one person to hit is 0.4%. 1 or 0 is 0.5%.
So 1 in 200 if it was a fair coin flip game.
The Week 8 reminders have been sent.
The Week 8 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post283582
Most Love
Falcons 15
Bills 12
Jets 12
Least Love
Cards 0
49'ers 2
Most Action
Browns/Chiefs 25
Bills/Saints 21
Seahawks/Rams 21
Least Action
Cowboys/Lions 13
Most lopsided action team picks
Falcons 15 Cards 0
Jags 11 49'ers 2
Even action team picks
Giants 4 Eagles 4
Notable action
Giants Eagles 7 unders and no overs
Total bets ATS | Paid to winners | Book profit or (loss) | Total bets O/U | Paid to winners | Book profit or (loss) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | $2057 | $1866 | $191 | $396 | $462 | ($66) |
Week 2 | $2211 | $1714 | $497 | $319 | $378 | ($59) |
Week 3 | $2044 | $1604 | $640 | $264 | $210 | $54 |
Week 4 | $2123 | $2090 | $33 | $396 | $399 | ($3) |
Week 5 | $2101 | $1680 | $421 | $308 | $357 | ($49) |
Week 6 | $1969 | $1869 | $100 | $451 | $483 | ($32) |
Week 7 | $2013 | $1428 | $585 | $363 | $483 | ($120) |
Totals | $14518 | $12251 | $2467 | $2497 | $2772 | ($275) |
Thanks Ed Collins for sharing your WOV game calculator. http://www.edcollins.com/wov_nfl_football_contest_calculator_version_1.52.xlsm
Quote: 10DollarBriThanks Ed Collins for sharing your WOV game calculator...
You're welcome. No problem. I hope it helps and is useful. It was certainly good practice for me to write it.
A subsequent version will recognize JAX for Jacksonville. (JW17 used this abbreviation this week. Note the program already recognizes Jaguars, Jags, Jag, Jacksonville, Jack, and Jac, but not Jax! Apparently I forgot all about "Jax," which is actually quite common.)
Quote: EdCollinsYou're welcome. No problem. I hope it helps and is useful. It was certainly good practice for me to write it.
A subsequent version will recognize JAX for Jacksonville. (JW17 used this abbreviation this week. Note the program already recognizes Jaguars, Jags, Jag, Jacksonville, Jack, and Jac, but not Jax! Apparently I forgot all about "Jax," which is actually quite common.)
JAX is the airport code which some people use
Here are some more airport codes(most are 1st 3 letters city or something that makes sense, but not always) that are a bit unusual. Might want to include those as well.
Kansas City - MCI
Baltimore - BWI
Detroit - DTW
New Orleans - MSY
It's still the worst year of my life for Picks, just a little less so. If I can go 3-2 every week, I'll finish one over .500, though, so there's hope.
Total bets ATS | Paid to winners | Book profit or (loss) | Total bets O/U | Paid to winners | Book profit or (loss) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | $2057 | $1866 | $191 | $396 | $462 | ($66) |
Week 2 | $2211 | $1714 | $497 | $319 | $378 | ($59) |
Week 3 | $2044 | $1604 | $640 | $264 | $210 | $54 |
Week 4 | $2123 | $2090 | $33 | $396 | $399 | ($3) |
Week 5 | $2101 | $1680 | $421 | $308 | $357 | ($49) |
Week 6 | $1969 | $1869 | $100 | $451 | $483 | ($32) |
Week 7 | $2013 | $1428 | $585 | $363 | $483 | ($120) |
Week 8 | $1826 | $1386 | $440 | $572 | $714 | ($142) |
Totals | $16344 | $13637 | $2907 | $3069 | $3486 | ($417) |
I know that with a small sampling of 41 betters this doesn't mean much, but it makes me wonder if the lines aren't skewed to encourage betting the wrong side.....on the other hand we might just suck as a group:) It looks like the over/under might be the better bet.
The Update Standings can be found here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285168
The Week 8 game-by-game results are in the post above.
1.) We went 71-111 for .390 on our Regular Picks this week while going 6-12 for .333 on Confidence Picks. I'm telling you guys that I am really tempted to adopt a betting strategy of just fading all of the Confidence Picks.
2.) Our record after Week 8 is 619-766 for .447 on Regular Picks and 69-100 for .408 on Confidence Picks. The combined record is 688-866 for .443, overall. Due to a few players having dropped out, we now average 194.25 picks per week, so at 194, 186-8 would bring us to 874-874.
We will not go 186-8.
3.) Lines are coming up within just a few minutes, stay tuned!
The Week 9 Lines are as follows:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285178
There's going to be an NFL first this week! This is Jacksonville's bye week, and they're still getting seven points!
Jets OVER 41 (loss)
Cowboys +3 (win)
Seahawks OVER 42.5 (loss)
Patriots -6.5 (win)
Browns OVER 39.5 (loss)
However, the Jets-Bengals game's final score was 9-49 and the Browns-Chiefs final score was 17-23; both of which are correct picks. Others had picks that were graded incorrectly as well. Might want to double-check.
Thanks for all your hard work!
Yea, something's wrong. It looks like many of the picks that had OVERS/UNDERS are reversed. You show them as wrong when they're right and right when they're wrong.
The grading calculator at my end is working fine. I can't figure out what how you could come up with those results.
THE WEEK 8 STANDINGS ARE NOT CORRECT DUE TO THE FACT THAT EVERY SINGLE, "OVER," PICK WAS GRADED AS A LOSS. THIS WILL BE HAND-CORRECTED NO LATER THAN THIS TIME TOMORROW EVENING WITH THE UPDATED STANDINGS.
THE WEEK 9 LINES SHALL STAND AS POSTED, AS THERE ARE NO PROBLEMS WITH THOSE.
I APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED.
THANK YOU,
MISSION146
Thank God you're here!
If everything is correct on your end, would you be so kind as to E-Mail me your current file, please? I'll just download it and roll with it from now on. I've been using the one from three versions ago, anyway, just because I already had everything on there.
Quote: EdCollinsUnless the final score wasn't entered correctly in the Results tab. That's the first thing to check.
The scores are entered correctly, for some reason, only O/U's are affected. All the spread results seem to be correct.
Thanks to EdCollins, who is indeed the man, the erros have been Edited out and the Standings after Week 8 are as follows:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/14893-wov-picks-game-2013-official-thread/4/#post285168\
Individual game results in the post above, Week 9 Lines below.
If anyone is interested, the automated grading program was comparing the game scores, which where NUMERIC fields, to the over/under entries as Mission entered them, which somehow turned into TEXT fields.
Whoops. This is an invalid comparison and thus produced the wrong results.
This is my error. I should have thought of this. Obviously, all of the game scores and all of our over/under entries are always going to be NUMERIC. I should have allowed for a possibility that somehow these fields might accidentally be entered or changed from numeric to text, and thus FORCED all entries to be numeric, no matter what format they actually are entered in.
A future version will correct this.
Sorry for the confusion! :)
Good luck to all in Week 9!
I think I understand a little, I screwed up and made them text fields somehow, I'm sorry about that.
As a follow up question, it seemed like my previous weeks Over Under picks were graded correctly (at least I didn't notice them being wrong before). Did something get changed in the spreadsheet calculator between the previous weeks and this week's glitch?