WoV Picks Game 2013 (Discussion Thread)

Any questions about the game should be posted here.

I will be sending PM invites over the next week, apologies if you get more than one, but I'll try to avoid that. You are free to announce you want to play in-thread to receive PM reminders, and you may also play even if you do not receive an invite.

The Rules will be as follows:

Format:

Winner Take All (w/exception)

Participation:

You will not need to announce that you are participating in-thread or via PM in advance. The Lines will be posted on Thursday, September 5th, so simply PM me your picks and you are in the game. You MUST make Week 1 Picks to participate. If you wish to receive a reminder, however, please announce you are playing in-thread.

Rules:

1.) The winner will be determined by having the highest winning percentage. In the event of a tie, the winners will have the option of either splitting the take, or they may agree to PM me a Super Bowl pick prior to the Super Bowl, but after the combatants are known, consisting of the winning team, spread and TD's thrown; the winner will be determined in that order. If two Members PM me the same thing, they will BOTH be asked to change at least one aspect of their picks.

2.) The procedure for this will be that at some point on Thursdays, I will post the point spreads and Over/Unders from one source per week. I will likely use VegasInsider and the Spreads & Over/Unders I post will be constant and may be picked at any time prior to 11:59p.m. EST the Saturday before the game.

3.) Sunday/Monday games will be the only games considered. Every player must pick exactly five winners against the Spread, exactly five Over/Unders, or a combination totalling exactly five.

4.) Players may, "Skip," one week without making any picks, but they don't have to. If a player accidentally fails to submit picks, that will constitute the, "Skip," week.

5.) If a player fails to make picks for more than one week, he/she forfeits and will owe any monies lost to the winner(s).

***Any player missing two weeks will have the option of EITHER forfeiting immediately or accepting a record of 0-5 for the second missed week. If the player misses a third week, the forfeit is automatic.

6.) Picks will be PM'ed to me at any point prior to 11:59p.m. Saturday, all picks will be openly posted by me between midnight Sunday and kick-off.

***The exception to this Rule is that I will accept E-Mail Picks from banned Members, but only if they are banned. If you are banned, you can still receive PM's, so I will PM you my E-Mail address.

7.) At some point on Tuesday the picks, results and updated Standings will be posted by yours truly.

8.) CONFIDENCE PICK: You may make one, "Confidence Pick," per week, though you don't have to. Your, "Confidence Pick," must be made expressly clear in your PM. The CONFIDENCE PICK result will count either as two wins or two losses, if made.

PAYS

1.) If you are not the winner, then you will pay $0.10, with a minimum of $1.00, for every one-thousandth of a percentage your winning percentage is off from that of the winner. (i.e., if you batted .000, and the winner picked perfectly, you would owe $100)

2.) I will not be handling any money. Everyone participating is on the honor system. I am not responsible for non-payment or under-payment. The winner(s) and loser(s) will be responsible for determining privately and amongst themselves how the transaction is to be handled. The winner(s) may post the name(s) of any loser(s) who has AGREED on a method of payment yet failed to pay the winner within sixty (60) days of said agreement being established.

3.) Just to give this thing +EV, I will be paying the winner $25 within thirty days of the SB being played. I will pay by sending a Money Order.

TIME

1.) The first Sunday of the Season is September 8th, Lines will be posted on Thursday, September 5th.

Pick Format

I'm not really going to enforce this, but the thing that took me the most time last year was actually re-formatting the Picks when moving them to the results thread. It would be appreciated if Picks were formatted in a uniform way, so here is how I would strongly (but respectfully) prefer it:

1.) No Line Breaks

2.) For Spread picks, simply put the team nickname and the spread. (Ex: Bengals +5)

3.) For Over/Unders, simply put the team nickname for EITHER team, and the Over or Under amount. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25)

4.) To designate a Confidence Pick, simply put a hyphen and, "Confidence," after the pick. (Ex: Bengals OVER 25-Confidence)

So, a full set of picks might appear:

Patriots -15
Patriots OVER 52
Jaguars +12
Jaguars UNDER 42
Jets +4-Confidence

Let's have a great time, again!

Also, all are welcome to play. Members fitting certain criteria will receive invites, but if you don't get an invite, you can still PM your picks for Week 1 and you are automatically in.

I'm in again. I suggested last year that if you miss two weeks, the 2nd missed week just counts as 0-5. I guess that is shot down?

this looks like fun. God forbid I get any .000 though...lol. Question: your weekly deadline is 11:59 Saturday, but I thought I saw somewhere you live in EST, and Vegas is PST...posts on here are Vegas time. So, is that UTC, EST, PST, something else? Also, is PayPal considered a valid payment choice among those playing in the past, or is it check/money order/whatever? Thanks in advance; I've been a FFL commissioner, and it's a thankless job. Haven't decided for sure, but think I'd like to join in.

Sorry, another question came to mind re: #5. If I stink at this and decide I've had enough after a few weeks, am I obligated for the rest of the season to pay the winners, or do I only owe for the second week after I stop, or do I just tell you I'm done and I'm out without penalty?

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm in again. I suggested last year that if you miss two weeks, the 2nd missed week just counts as 0-5. I guess that is shot down?

Actually, my apologies. Somehow that wasn't voted upon, by Executive Decision: Any player missing two weeks will have the option of EITHER forfeiting immediately or accepting a record of 0-5 for the second missed week. If the player misses a third week, the forfeit is automatic.

Quote: beachbumbabs

this looks like fun. God forbid I get any .000 though...lol. Question: your weekly deadline is 11:59 Saturday, but I thought I saw somewhere you live in EST, and Vegas is PST...posts on here are Vegas time. So, is that UTC, EST, PST, something else? Also, is PayPal considered a valid payment choice among those playing in the past, or is it check/money order/whatever? Thanks in advance; I've been a FFL commissioner, and it's a thankless job. Haven't decided for sure, but think I'd like to join in.

The deadline would be in Eastern time because that still leaves me only a 13 hour window within which to post the selections in the Official Thread.

I don't know about PayPal, I believe the Wizard accepted PayPal, but again, it is between the winner(s) and each individual loser.

I paid by PayPal last year

Quote: beachbumbabs

Sorry, another question came to mind re: #5. If I stink at this and decide I've had enough after a few weeks, am I obligated for the rest of the season to pay the winners, or do I only owe for the second week after I stop, or do I just tell you I'm done and I'm out without penalty?

The amount owed by a losing player is based exclusively upon the difference between the losing player's winning percentage and the winner's winning percentage, therefore, the loser's winning percentage (upon quitting) would remain constant while the winner's would be unknown. The losing player would be obligated to pay the difference between his/her final winning percentage and that of the winner, either way.

As a practical matter, a losing player shouldn't owe that much. The mean winning percentage of all losing players for last year was .497 and the winner, Wizard, had a .713. Under this year's Rules, the mean loser would owe $21.60 and the most would have been $32.60. However, Wizard also publicized his strategy for last year, and absent omniscience, I don't think he could feasibly do much better than he did. Moreover, we're also using a better line source, and his strategy played largely upon disparity between the source we were using and a superior source.

Oh, heck, I'm in then. I thought you were paying off every week with max 100 on the line. Wasn't sure I wanted to stake 1700 on sports bets, especially the way they bench the good players the last few weeks to save them for the playoffs. Thanks for making that clear, that it's the percentage over the entire season.

It's great to have you aboard, the more the merrier! I'd really like to have more than fifty players, this year, it'd be cool to see a total prize pool north of $500!

Invitations will be sent to Members meeting one (or more) of the following criteria:

1.) Participation in last year's game.

2.) Having more than 25 posts.

3.) Not being a Banned Member.*

*Exceptions will be made for all currently Banned Members with a scheduled date of return, and I will PM my E-Mail address to same.

I'm in. And I'll also sign up for the reminder service:-)

Cool, it seems as if most people have confirmed one way or another, anyway. I'm still not going to make it a requirement, per se, but I'll go ahead and keep a running list of confirmed players:

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Quote:

1.) If you are not the winner, then you will pay $0.10, with a minimum of $1.00, for every one-thousandth of a percentage your winning percentage is off from that of the winner. (i.e., if you batted .000, and the winner picked perfectly, you would owe $100)

I don't think you mean 1/1000th of a percentage, but 1/10th of a percentage point. 55% winning a 50% bettor would be 5000 X 10c = $500, whereas I think you would expect this to be $5.

No prize for first loser? :)

I'm in.

Quote: thecesspit

I don't think you mean 1/1000th of a percentage, but 1/10th of a percentage point. 55% winning a 50% bettor would be 5000 X 10c = $500, whereas I think you would expect this to be $5.

No prize for first loser? :)

I'm in.

Yes, tenth of a percentage point, LOL!

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Count me in.

I will play. Thanks.

I think I was in 3rd place overall last year.

Count me in too.

Last year I contributed my payoff to The Three Square Food Bank as requested by Mike.

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
SteelDCo
Keyzer Soze
Ten2Win
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Okay, the invites start tonight, so expect a quick spike in players. Also, I am going to request return PM's in the invites, but specify that they are only appreciated, not necessary.

Count me in. Got 4th last year. Hope to improve 3 places.

" Members fitting certain criteria will receive invites "

Am I persona no grata ? I did not get an invite. Did Babs blackball me ?

As the reigning runner-up I'm back to knock Mike off the top of the mountain. But more likely finish 18th or something.

I'll take even odds I finish in front of Mike. If anyone is up for a sociable bet.

Quote: Buzzard

I'll take even odds I finish in front of Mike. If anyone is up for a sociable bet.

I'll bet you come behind him. $10?

I also bet you beat me :)

Buzz,

If I blackballed you, [graphic gross scatalogical description redacted, but your brain went there anyway]. :)

Mission - Thanks for doing this again. I'm in.

Quote: thecesspit

I'll bet you come behind him. $10?

I also bet you beat me :)

It's booked. Good luck

Count the Boz in.

I will suck again this year.

Quote: Buzzard

" Members fitting certain criteria will receive invites "

Am I persona no grata ? I did not get an invite. Did Babs blackball me ?

I haven't started yet, but I'm starting tonight. I'd like to send a mass PM, but I don't think we have the functionality, so I have 130 Pages of Members to go through and cut/paste PM's. I'm planning on 40 pages per day, done by Thursday or Friday.

Quote: MidwestAP

Mission - Thanks for doing this again. I'm in.

You're welcome, I get as much out of it as everyone who plays...probably more...especially if Picks are uniformly formatted this year!

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
SteelDCo
Keyzer Soze
Ten2Win
Miplet
Buzzard
Vendman1
MidwestAP
Boz
JohnZimbo
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Quote: Mission146

You're welcome, I get as much out of it as everyone who plays...probably more...especially if Picks are uniformly formatted this year!

You can use the wisdom of the crowds for your own bets :p

Thanks for the invite. I'm in.

Greetings!

Okay, we are about halfway through the invitation process, at this point. I've sent out invitations to 65/130 pages with 25 (or more) posts. I expect that this thread will continue to have people confirm they are playing, as well as my PM Inbox. I should be able to finish invitations tomorrow, I came up with a process that's actually more efficient than I had expected.

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
SteelDCo
Keyzer Soze
Ten2Win
Miplet
Buzzard
Vendman1
MidwestAP
Boz
JohnZimbo
EdCollins
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Thanks for the invite but I don't know how any of this stuff works.

You just pick games against the spread or Over/Unders.

Greetings,

Verily, verily, I say unto thee, "That's some tedious bullshit!"

Okay, so invitations are finished, except I have to check against the banned list tomorrow to PM my E-Mail addy to applicable Members. I already got AHigh PM'ed with my E-Mail, it would be great if he plays, so I hope so.

I also have to check last year's players, any with less than 25 posts would not have gotten an invitation yet.

Thanks for the invite, I can't commit yet, but I am thinking about it. My main issue is that the spread always gets me.

Got no PM ? Leaving for Baltimore in an hour. GOOD LUCK, everybody !

I'm in.

First question, is the over/under just a tie breaker or another bet?

More questions follow

Quote: Mission146

4.) Players may, "Skip," one week without making any picks, but they don't have to. If a player accidentally fails to submit picks, that will constitute the, "Skip," week.

5.) If a player fails to make picks for more than one week, he/she forfeits and will owe any monies lost to the winner(s).

***Any player missing two weeks will have the option of EITHER forfeiting immediately or accepting a record of 0-5 for the second missed week. If the player misses a third week, the forfeit is automatic.

Regarding the above, not sure I understand the consequences. Let's say a player has his life go underwater and continued participation is too much. Perhaps he forfeits right from the get-go. I think we all know he ain't paying for 16 or so losses. As to whether someone might be honest enough to pay the winner some $55-60 or so on his second forfeiture, no comment.

So I am assuming this all means players who forfeit get one freebie, pay on a second such if they want to continue to play, and are just booted on a third with everyone assuming they are not betting further?

Quote: Mission146

***Any player missing two weeks will have the option of EITHER forfeiting immediately or accepting a record of 0-5 for the second missed week. .

What's the difference between forfeiting and a record of 0-5?

PS: final question, is all this forfeit business really necessary? What's the point?

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

Okay, we are about halfway through the invitation process, at this point. I've sent out invitations to 65/130 pages with 25 (or more) posts. I expect that this thread will continue to have people confirm they are playing, as well as my PM Inbox. I should be able to finish invitations tomorrow, I came up with a process that's actually more efficient than I had expected.

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
SteelDCo
Keyzer Soze
Ten2Win
Miplet
Buzzard
Vendman1
MidwestAP
Boz
JohnZimbo
EdCollins
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Thanx again this year also to Ed Collins for updating his NFL Office Pool Calculator, it really rocks!
Note to Ed: on Reason #2 you say "This is so small thing - more on this below" but believe that's a typo and should read "...no small thing..."

Ive not done this before but count me in- Im used to tradidtional FFB stuff- and never have done sports betting- but I think I can do at least below average!

Quote: wroberson

Thanks for the invite, I can't commit yet, but I am thinking about it. My main issue is that the spread always gets me.

Bet the Over/Under!

Quote: Buzzard

Got no PM ? Leaving for Baltimore in an hour. GOOD LUCK, everybody !

You don't need one, I already added you to the playing list!

Beardgoat
BeachBumBabs
Paradigm
RDW4POTUS
TheCessPit
SteelDCo
Keyzer Soze
Ten2Win
Miplet
Buzzard
Vendman1
MidwestAP
Boz
JohnZimbo
EdCollins
Wizard
AssWhooperMcDaddy
Chickenman
OdiousGambit
Malaru
MinnesotaJoe
SteelDCo (Skipping Week One)
Mission146 (Making Picks, but excluded from winning)

Quote: Malaru

Ive not done this before but count me in- Im used to tradidtional FFB stuff- and never have done sports betting- but I think I can do at least below average!

At least! Sometimes, when I'm really stuck for picks, I just go AtS with whichever mascot I think could take the other...j/k

I'm in, please add me to PM reminder list.

Quote: chickenman

Thanx again this year also to Ed Collins for updating his NFL Office Pool Calculator, it really rocks!
Note to Ed: on Reason #2 you say "This is so small thing - more on this below" but believe that's a typo and should read "...no small thing..."

Good eye. Typo fixed. Thanks!