aluisio
aluisio
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August 7th, 2013 at 4:52:58 PM permalink
So I was wondering if you guys are up for some preseason action.
Any thoughts on thursday and friday games?

I am betting 3 games with the following handicaps:

Falcons -2
Chargers +2.5
Redskins +2.5
No bounce, no play.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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August 7th, 2013 at 6:27:40 PM permalink
Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 7th, 2013 at 7:40:00 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.



Right - take the points always. I'll never forget when a meaningless safety gave me a push in the pre-season game. Saved me $50!
kewlj
kewlj
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August 7th, 2013 at 8:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.


Alot of folk think wagering on preseason football makes you a complete degenerate. I have been wagering preseason games for 4 years with real good success based just on the fact that Beardgoat stated: games will often be decided by 3rd stringer and even worse, players that will be in another occupation in 4 weeks. Lol. This makes every game a near even coin flip. Anytime I figure I have a near even outcome but can wager + pts or + odds, seems like a longterm winner. In past years I have done a lot of money line wagering, taking every team +120 or more to win out right.

This year, I am going a little different angle and taking points instead. My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason. If a team is behind by 7 points in the fourth quarter and their 3rd string qb, leads the team down the field for a touchdown, the team will not kick the extra point to tie as they would in a regular season game. They will always go for a two point conversion and either win by 1 point or lose by 1 point. Likewise, a team trailing by 3 points late in the 4th quarter will not attempt a game tying field goal. If it is 4th down and they are in field goal range, they will go for a first down or touchdown instead.

So I am wagering $220 on every team getting 3 pts or more.

I made my week 1 wagers earlier today.

Ravens +3
Rams +4
Bengals +3.5
Broncos +3
Jets +3.5
N E +4.5
Cards +4
Chiefs +3.5
Bills +3.5

I will be keeping an eye on 4 games that currently have teams getting 2 to 2.5 pts, Redskin +2.5, Chargers +2, Bears +2 and Giants +2 for any movement before game time/day.
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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August 7th, 2013 at 8:31:55 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Right - take the points always. I'll never forget when a meaningless safety gave me a push in the pre-season game. Saved me $50!

I'll never forget when a meaningless safety cost me a C note in the Super Bowl last February.

Grrrr #stillpissed
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
FinsRule
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August 8th, 2013 at 3:55:11 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

I'll never forget when a meaningless safety cost me a C note in the Super Bowl last February.

Grrrr #stillpissed



That was a very strategic safety. But yeah, I understand.
kewlj
kewlj
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August 15th, 2013 at 7:58:41 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Alot of folk think wagering on preseason football makes you a complete degenerate. I have been wagering preseason games for 4 years with real good success based just on the fact that Beardgoat stated: games will often be decided by 3rd stringer and even worse, players that will be in another occupation in 4 weeks. Lol. This makes every game a near even coin flip. Anytime I figure I have a near even outcome but can wager + pts or + odds, seems like a longterm winner. In past years I have done a lot of money line wagering, taking every team +120 or more to win out right.

This year, I am going a little different angle and taking points instead. My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason. If a team is behind by 7 points in the fourth quarter and their 3rd string qb, leads the team down the field for a touchdown, the team will not kick the extra point to tie as they would in a regular season game. They will always go for a two point conversion and either win by 1 point or lose by 1 point. Likewise, a team trailing by 3 points late in the 4th quarter will not attempt a game tying field goal. If it is 4th down and they are in field goal range, they will go for a first down or touchdown instead.

So I am wagering $220 on every team getting 3 pts or more.

I made my week 1 wagers earlier today.

Ravens +3
Rams +4
Bengals +3.5
Broncos +3
Jets +3.5
N E +4.5
Cards +4
Chiefs +3.5
Bills +3.5



Went 6-3 in week one, and made a couple bucks (+$540).

Week 2, blind squirrel picks. :-)

Panthers +3.5
Falcons. +4.5
Chargers. +6
Vikings. +3.5
Raiders +6.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Dallas. +3.5
Miami. +3.5
Packers +4.5
NokTang
NokTang
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August 17th, 2013 at 8:59:39 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason.



So, should we assume there is no overtime in preseason?
Beardgoat
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August 17th, 2013 at 9:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Went 6-3 in week one, and made a couple bucks (+$540).

Week 2, blind squirrel picks. :-)

Panthers +3.5
Falcons. +4.5
Chargers. +6
Vikings. +3.5
Raiders +6.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Dallas. +3.5
Miami. +3.5
Packers +4.5



Yuck, not so good this week. You missed by just a .5 or 1.5 on like 4 games. So close
kewlj
kewlj
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August 17th, 2013 at 10:24:45 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

Yuck, not so good this week. You missed by just a .5 or 1.5 on like 4 games. So close



No not a good week. 3-6, for a two week total of 9-9, -$180. Yes lost 4 games by either 1/2 point or 1 & 1/2 points. I don't mind losing close games, that's part of sports wagering, but I lost one game by a half point when a team would not kick an extra point for fear of going into overtime. And to the guy that asked about overtime, yes, they play overtime if the game is tied at the end, but teams don't want to play overtime in preseason. It's just a practice game, why play longer and risk more injuries. So teams do all sorts of strange things like not kick extra points and not attempt game tying feildgoals late in the game. If a team trailing by 7 points, scores a touchdown late in the game, they will not kick an extra point to tie the score, they will always go for two point conversion and either win by 1 or lose by 1, a strategy NEVER employed in the regular season.

Anyway, I am just not enjoying this experience this much this year, so I won't be making further picks.
Sabretom2
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August 18th, 2013 at 4:51:14 AM permalink
Degenerates.

BTW, what's the line on the LLWS?
aluisio
aluisio
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August 18th, 2013 at 7:29:54 AM permalink
I have Pittsburgh at +1.5 tomorrow.
No bounce, no play.
Mission146
Mission146
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August 18th, 2013 at 8:30:44 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj



Anyway, I am just not enjoying this experience this much this year, so I won't be making further picks.



BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
kewlj
kewlj
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August 18th, 2013 at 9:06:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!



I am not really familiar with WoV picks game. I will take a look at it. I don't wager on regular season NFL games, but I do participate in a number of casino contests where my entry fee is comped. Free entry into the contest is pretty positive EV as well. Last my free entry in the Palms contest returned $7500 when I won one of the weeks. :-)
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 18th, 2013 at 10:18:23 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!



That picks game was way too confusing. Any way to make it simpler this year?
KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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August 18th, 2013 at 1:30:54 PM permalink
I'd love to play the WOV picks game.

What's the entry fee?

Can a noob like myself play?

Is there a thread?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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August 18th, 2013 at 3:36:14 PM permalink
No offense but what was so hard? You only have to pick 5 games.

Here I the game we played last year
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11200-wov-picks-game-bet/
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 18th, 2013 at 4:11:37 PM permalink
The calculation of who owed what was confusing. I can pick 5 games... (Not well though, haha)

Edit - I'd just do 1st place wins 75%, 2nd place wins 25%, 3rd place owes nothing. Entry fee is $5, $10, or whatever
Mission146
Mission146
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August 19th, 2013 at 6:29:51 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The calculation of who owed what was confusing. I can pick 5 games... (Not well though, haha)

Edit - I'd just do 1st place wins 75%, 2nd place wins 25%, 3rd place owes nothing. Entry fee is $5, $10, or whatever



There were some rule changes, except I don't remember what they are at the moment. I'm going to work on setting this game back up on Thursday evening, I believe, which will leave plenty of time for anyone who is interested to join.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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August 19th, 2013 at 6:30:59 AM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

I'd love to play the WOV picks game.

What's the entry fee?

Can a noob like myself play?

Is there a thread?



Thanks.

You don't pay up front...I don't think...only if you lose. I could be wrong, I have to consult the rule changes.

Yes, any Member may play.

The thread for this year's game will be created no later than Thursday night.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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August 19th, 2013 at 8:30:08 AM permalink
Thanks Mission146. I will check it out this week.

I will pay up after I lose. I don't welch.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 19th, 2013 at 9:23:11 AM permalink
I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.
Mission146
Mission146
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August 19th, 2013 at 5:08:43 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.



That amount is not possible!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Beardgoat
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August 19th, 2013 at 5:35:11 PM permalink
The most anyone owed last year was $20
LarryS
LarryS
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August 19th, 2013 at 6:10:44 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.



rather bigoted
FinsRule
FinsRule
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August 19th, 2013 at 7:45:46 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

rather bigoted



huh?
Buzzard
Buzzard
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August 19th, 2013 at 9:13:10 PM permalink
Preseason bettor= Someone with a gambling problem.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
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