2013 NFL Preseason Picks

So I was wondering if you guys are up for some preseason action.
Any thoughts on thursday and friday games?

I am betting 3 games with the following handicaps:

Falcons -2
Chargers +2.5
Redskins +2.5

Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.

Quote: Beardgoat

Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.

Right - take the points always. I'll never forget when a meaningless safety gave me a push in the pre-season game. Saved me $50!

Quote: Beardgoat

Preseason football is like a coin flip. A lot of teams don't play their top players in game 1. If they do then they only play one series. The coaches never open up the play book either. You're basically gambling on 3rd stringers and roster cut guys.

Alot of folk think wagering on preseason football makes you a complete degenerate. I have been wagering preseason games for 4 years with real good success based just on the fact that Beardgoat stated: games will often be decided by 3rd stringer and even worse, players that will be in another occupation in 4 weeks. Lol. This makes every game a near even coin flip. Anytime I figure I have a near even outcome but can wager + pts or + odds, seems like a longterm winner. In past years I have done a lot of money line wagering, taking every team +120 or more to win out right.

This year, I am going a little different angle and taking points instead. My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason. If a team is behind by 7 points in the fourth quarter and their 3rd string qb, leads the team down the field for a touchdown, the team will not kick the extra point to tie as they would in a regular season game. They will always go for a two point conversion and either win by 1 point or lose by 1 point. Likewise, a team trailing by 3 points late in the 4th quarter will not attempt a game tying field goal. If it is 4th down and they are in field goal range, they will go for a first down or touchdown instead.

So I am wagering $220 on every team getting 3 pts or more.

I made my week 1 wagers earlier today.

Ravens +3
Rams +4
Bengals +3.5
Broncos +3
Jets +3.5
N E +4.5
Cards +4
Chiefs +3.5
Bills +3.5

I will be keeping an eye on 4 games that currently have teams getting 2 to 2.5 pts, Redskin +2.5, Chargers +2, Bears +2 and Giants +2 for any movement before game time/day.

Quote: FinsRule

Right - take the points always. I'll never forget when a meaningless safety gave me a push in the pre-season game. Saved me $50!

I'll never forget when a meaningless safety cost me a C note in the Super Bowl last February.

Grrrr #stillpissed

Quote: s2dbaker

I'll never forget when a meaningless safety cost me a C note in the Super Bowl last February.

Grrrr #stillpissed

That was a very strategic safety. But yeah, I understand.

Quote: kewlj

Alot of folk think wagering on preseason football makes you a complete degenerate. I have been wagering preseason games for 4 years with real good success based just on the fact that Beardgoat stated: games will often be decided by 3rd stringer and even worse, players that will be in another occupation in 4 weeks. Lol. This makes every game a near even coin flip. Anytime I figure I have a near even outcome but can wager + pts or + odds, seems like a longterm winner. In past years I have done a lot of money line wagering, taking every team +120 or more to win out right.

This year, I am going a little different angle and taking points instead. My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason. If a team is behind by 7 points in the fourth quarter and their 3rd string qb, leads the team down the field for a touchdown, the team will not kick the extra point to tie as they would in a regular season game. They will always go for a two point conversion and either win by 1 point or lose by 1 point. Likewise, a team trailing by 3 points late in the 4th quarter will not attempt a game tying field goal. If it is 4th down and they are in field goal range, they will go for a first down or touchdown instead.

So I am wagering $220 on every team getting 3 pts or more.

I made my week 1 wagers earlier today.

Ravens +3
Rams +4
Bengals +3.5
Broncos +3
Jets +3.5
N E +4.5
Cards +4
Chiefs +3.5
Bills +3.5

Went 6-3 in week one, and made a couple bucks (+$540).

Week 2, blind squirrel picks. :-)

Panthers +3.5
Falcons. +4.5
Chargers. +6
Vikings. +3.5
Raiders +6.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Dallas. +3.5
Miami. +3.5
Packers +4.5

Quote: kewlj

My reasoning is that teams don't play for a tie in preseason.

So, should we assume there is no overtime in preseason?

Quote: kewlj

Went 6-3 in week one, and made a couple bucks (+$540).

Week 2, blind squirrel picks. :-)

Panthers +3.5
Falcons. +4.5
Chargers. +6
Vikings. +3.5
Raiders +6.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Dallas. +3.5
Miami. +3.5
Packers +4.5

Yuck, not so good this week. You missed by just a .5 or 1.5 on like 4 games. So close

Quote: Beardgoat

Yuck, not so good this week. You missed by just a .5 or 1.5 on like 4 games. So close

No not a good week. 3-6, for a two week total of 9-9, -$180. Yes lost 4 games by either 1/2 point or 1 & 1/2 points. I don't mind losing close games, that's part of sports wagering, but I lost one game by a half point when a team would not kick an extra point for fear of going into overtime. And to the guy that asked about overtime, yes, they play overtime if the game is tied at the end, but teams don't want to play overtime in preseason. It's just a practice game, why play longer and risk more injuries. So teams do all sorts of strange things like not kick extra points and not attempt game tying feildgoals late in the game. If a team trailing by 7 points, scores a touchdown late in the game, they will not kick an extra point to tie the score, they will always go for two point conversion and either win by 1 or lose by 1, a strategy NEVER employed in the regular season.

Anyway, I am just not enjoying this experience this much this year, so I won't be making further picks.

Degenerates.

BTW, what's the line on the LLWS?

I have Pittsburgh at +1.5 tomorrow.

Quote: kewlj

Anyway, I am just not enjoying this experience this much this year, so I won't be making further picks.

BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!

Quote: Mission146

BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!

I am not really familiar with WoV picks game. I will take a look at it. I don't wager on regular season NFL games, but I do participate in a number of casino contests where my entry fee is comped. Free entry into the contest is pretty positive EV as well. Last my free entry in the Palms contest returned $7500 when I won one of the weeks. :-)

Quote: Mission146

BULL****!!! Aren't you going to play the WoV picks game this year? I'm throwing money in again, so it's positive EV, you have to play, it's a moral imperative!

That picks game was way too confusing. Any way to make it simpler this year?

I'd love to play the WOV picks game.

What's the entry fee?

Can a noob like myself play?

Is there a thread?

No offense but what was so hard? You only have to pick 5 games.

Here I the game we played last year
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11200-wov-picks-game-bet/

The calculation of who owed what was confusing. I can pick 5 games... (Not well though, haha)

Edit - I'd just do 1st place wins 75%, 2nd place wins 25%, 3rd place owes nothing. Entry fee is $5, $10, or whatever

Quote: FinsRule

The calculation of who owed what was confusing. I can pick 5 games... (Not well though, haha)

Edit - I'd just do 1st place wins 75%, 2nd place wins 25%, 3rd place owes nothing. Entry fee is $5, $10, or whatever

There were some rule changes, except I don't remember what they are at the moment. I'm going to work on setting this game back up on Thursday evening, I believe, which will leave plenty of time for anyone who is interested to join.

Quote: KeyserSoze

I'd love to play the WOV picks game.

What's the entry fee?

Can a noob like myself play?

Is there a thread?

Thanks.

You don't pay up front...I don't think...only if you lose. I could be wrong, I have to consult the rule changes.

Yes, any Member may play.

The thread for this year's game will be created no later than Thursday night.

Thanks Mission146. I will check it out this week.

I will pay up after I lose. I don't welch.

I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.

Quote: FinsRule

I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.

That amount is not possible!

The most anyone owed last year was $20

Quote: FinsRule

I like knowing the most I can lose beforehand, so I don't welch. My fear is that I end up down $500 somehow in this thing.

rather bigoted

Quote: LarryS

rather bigoted

huh?

Preseason bettor= Someone with a gambling problem.