Thoroughbred Picks

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June 22nd, 2013 at 8:19:27 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/22/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee
2 News Bulletin
3 0
4 Striking Hight
5 Kinzig
6 Coastal Breeze
7 The Best Option
8 0
9 Francois
10 Third Crusade
11 Jack N John

Race # Alternate
1 Shanes Gold
2 Carson's Hawk
3 0
4 Shoot the Loop
5 0
6 0
7 Masquerade
8 0
9 Strike the Tiger
10 0
11 Buttercups Baby

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 22nd, 2013 at 12:52:05 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
steeldco.....why all the work? I've posted a positive return system for the horse players. Bet on the odds on horse to place in a field of 10 or more runners. The later in the card the race is the better. Must be at tracks that handle 100k plus in the win pool per race. Approximately 15% return. My gift to the forums horse players.

This is a great system. I just tested it on some completed races yesterday. 1st off I looked at Arlington park yesterday, all fields too small. One drawback of this system is that many races have fields less then 10 so you don't get to bet on many races.

Below are theoretical bets of 2 dollar place bet on the favorite in races with at least 10 horses. I didn't check the handle.
6/21/13 Calder
race 2 win 2
race 5 lose 2
race 9 win 1.20
Churchill Dwns
race 8 win 1.20
race 9 win 2
Belmont
race 6 win 1.10
Colonial Downs
race 4 lose 2
race 6 win 2
race 10 win 1

Overall plus 6.50, this is great. Thanks treetopbuddy. Now I want to go to the races and try this out. Damm, in Tampa and its off season for Tampa Bay Downs. Maybe I'll try this at the dog track tonight :-)

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 1:03:34 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
This is a great system. I just tested it on some completed races yesterday. 1st off I looked at Arlington park yesterday, all fields too small. One drawback of this system is that many races have fields less then 10 so you don't get to bet on many races.

Below are theoretical bets of 2 dollar place bet on the favorite in races with at least 10 horses. I didn't check the handle.
6/21/13 Calder
race 2 win 2
race 5 lose 2
race 9 win 1.20
Churchill Dwns
race 8 win 1.20
race 9 win 2
Belmont
race 6 win 1.10
Colonial Downs
race 4 lose 2
race 6 win 2
race 10 win 1

Overall plus 6.50, this is great. Thanks treetopbuddy. Now I want to go to the races and try this out. Damm, in Tampa and its off season for Tampa Bay Downs. Maybe I'll try this at the dog track tonight :-)

I'm not sure if you're kidding or not......but nevertheless thanks, I guess. You will get approximately 500 plays per year at major horse tracks. The method can be enhanced by focusing on the later half of the card. I know horse players after hanging around them for 35 plus years. The average gambler hates the chalk and is completely underfunded. Nobody is going to "get out" on a short price horse except for well funded smart horse players. Forget the dogs....20 to win on a dog will knock it down to 1/9 on the board.

Each day is better than the next

terapined

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June 22nd, 2013 at 1:26:17 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
I'm not sure if you're kidding or not......but nevertheless thanks, I guess. You will get approximately 500 plays per year at major horse tracks. The method can be enhanced by focusing on the later half of the card. I know horse players after hanging around them for 35 plus years. The average gambler hates the chalk and is completely underfunded. Nobody is going to "get out" on a short price horse except for well funded smart horse players. Forget the dogs....20 to win on a dog will knock it down to 1/9 on the board.

I'm not kidding. 1st off I am not generally a system person but have an open mind. Any roulette system is total BS.
This system is very interesting and can be tested with no money at stake so that's what I did for a few tracks I just picked. I tested it and it works. Now its an extremely tiny sample but I have a very positive indication. Of course the real test is to crunch a huge amount of data and its out there but maybe somebody else is up to that task. To me its a great piece of information to consider when at the track. I personally have always liked the Place bet.
One of my pet theories of betting at the track is that don't bet so much that you are betting against yourself. When I bet on a race, In theory every single bet can win. I never bet exactas, I never bet on more then 1 horse to win. I can bet on 1 horse to WPS, another to PS and another to S. I am making multiple bets but in theory, every single one can hit. I generally don't do this. I usually pick one horse but when I handicap, sometime 3 horses in a large field really stand out so then I might bet on all 3 but as a WPS PS S bets.
I go to the track to have fun, maybe lose a little or win a little. Of course you have more fun winning. So a genuine thanks treetopbuddy.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 1:37:51 PM permalink

You can back test the idea by going to Equiline.com .....I've spent hundreds upon hundreds of hours looking at the charts. The charts confirmed what I had learned at the track. The place pool is the best pool to bet into.....the mob in Chicago would chage a 20% premium on place bets.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 1:47:33 PM permalink

oops.....Equibase.com not equiline.com.....Equiline is primarily for pedigree research.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:12:30 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
I knew FinsRule had to chime in.....I've forgot more about horse racing (all aspects) that you'll ever know Old Sport. Do you think I'm just making this s*** up? O.K......as a collective....4/5, 3/5, 2/5, 1/5 and 1/9 you can expect a strike rate of 85% with average mutual 2.65. The 4/5 does not hit at 85% but the mutual ticket is closer to 2.85 in a 10 plus field of horses. Your too quick on the trigger Old Sport.

Go to Equibase and pull up historical charts. Check it out yourself.

Yes, you are making the s*** up.

terapined

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:14:53 PM permalink

Continuing to test the treetopbuddy system
6/20/13 2 dollar place bet on the favorite in fields 10 or more. I did not check handle.
Calder
race 4 -2
race 8 +1.20
Churchill - all small fields
Belmont
race 4 -2
race 5 +1.90
race 6 -2
race 9 -2
Colonial Downs
r 1 -2
r3 -2
r5 -2
r7 -2
r8 +2.80
Penn National (just added since Churchill had nothing that day)
r2 +2
r8 +1.60
r9 +1
Overall 6/20/13 -5.50 so the system takes a hit.
also factoring in Penn National from 6/21
r4 -2
r5 +1
r9 +1.60
So 6/21/13 revised results is +7.10

So after 2 days 5 tracks system is +1.60. I'm excited. so far, congrats Treetopbuddy. Of course this does not take into account handle.
What are the top handle tracks in the country?

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

FinsRule

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:18:08 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
oops.....Equibase.com not equiline.com.....Equiline is primarily for pedigree research.

If I would have confused those two websites in a post, you would never let me hear the end of it. Anyway, what do you do with all your cash? 500 races a year, bet $1000 on each with a guarantee 12% profit. Who needs work?

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:27:43 PM permalink

Belmont, Gulfstream, Aquaduct, Saratoga, Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Arlington, Monmouth, Del Mar, Santa Anita, Hollywood, Tampa Bay, Fairgrounds, Oaklawn, Woodbine, Presque Isle Downs, Parx, Lone Star......that's about it..... You can use other tracks but you have to qualify horse by handicapping the race.....one drunk cowboy can distort the pools at minor tracks.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:27:46 PM permalink

I actually don't think the system is terrible, just needs a little tweaking. Why don't you put a qualifier in that you only make the bet if the horse has let's say less than 30% of place pool. Or if that's too little, then 35%.

FinsRule

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:46:21 PM permalink

Bridge jumpers are out at Belmont. 96% of the show pool on her. (Dreaming of Julia) My vote is bet on, not against.

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 2:58:05 PM permalink

5% return......scared the bridge jumpers

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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June 22nd, 2013 at 3:53:59 PM permalink

The jumpers were terrified at around the 1/2 mile pole. But she ended up finishing 2nd.

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 3:58:43 PM permalink

Yeah, they make 5% and some rebates for savvy players. Never ask a horse to win. It's just too damn hard to win, even at the bottom of the claiming ranks.

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

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Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 22nd, 2013 at 5:01:17 PM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/22/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee -$10.00 2nd
2 News Bulletin -$10.00 4th
3 0 $0.00
4 Striking Hight -$10.00 3rd
5 Kinzig -$10.00 2nd
6 Coastal Breeze $18.00 1st
7 The Best Option -$10.00 5th
8 0 $0.00
9 Francois $0.00 scratch
10 Third Crusade -$10.00 3rd
11 Jack N John -$10.00 3rd
-$52.00

Race # Alternate
1 Shanes Gold -$10.00 3rd
2 Carson's Hawk -$10.00 2nd
3 0 $0.00
4 Shoot the Loop -$10.00 4th
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Masquerade $36.00 1st
8 0 $0.00
9 Strike the Tiger -$10.00 3rd
10 0 $0.00
11 Buttercups Baby -$10.00 6th
-$14.00

Grand Total -$66.00

YTD Results:
Original -$680.00
Alternate -$93.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$42.40
Total YTD -$773.60
% Loss on Alternate 10.06%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 22nd, 2013 at 5:44:27 PM permalink

Treetop system evaluation continues. Due to handle, I dropped some tracks and added some tracks. Not looking at exact handle, just using tracks running today that were on the list in the previous post of tracks that have high handles.
6/22/13 2 dollar place bet on favorite with at least 10 or more horses (I exclude 10 horse races if there is a 1 and 1A because that's really only 9 places)
Belmont R7-2 R9-2 R11-2
Churchill 0
Arlington R8-2
Monmouth R8+2.80 R10-2
Woodbine R5-2 R10+2.80
Parx R10+.60
Lonestar R4+1.20 R7+1.80 R8+1 R9+1 R10-2

Total Today -2.80
YTD -1.20

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

terapined

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June 22nd, 2013 at 6:28:31 PM permalink

More Date, backtracking.
6/19 Above tracks same bet -10.60
6/17-18 Parx -.60
6/16 above tracks +4.60

YTD 6/16 to 6/22 -7.80 Hmm, still small sample and not looking at specific handle but we will see.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 22nd, 2013 at 6:38:18 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Treetop system evaluation continues. Due to handle, I dropped some tracks and added some tracks. Not looking at exact handle, just using tracks running today that were on the list in the previous post of tracks that have high handles.
6/22/13 2 dollar place bet on favorite with at least 10 or more horses (I exclude 10 horse races if there is a 1 and 1A because that's really only 9 places)
Belmont R7-2 R9-2 R11-2
Churchill 0
Arlington R8-2
Monmouth R8+2.80 R10-2
Woodbine R5-2 R10+2.80
Parx R10+.60
Lonestar R4+1.20 R7+1.80 R8+1 R9+1 R10-2

Total Today -2.80
YTD -1.20

terpined.....you're missing the main qualifier in the method. The favorite MUST be 4/5 or less at pastime. For instance not one horse qualified at Belmont today but you counted Belmont as 3 losers. I didn't check the other races as I'm tired from posting too much on WOV today. You are using all favorites in 10 horse plus fields which will not work. There is a huge difference between a 2-1 favorite and a 4/5 or less fav.....thanks for tracking but make sure to use "odds on" horses in fields with ten or more betting interests.

Each day is better than the next

steeldco

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June 23rd, 2013 at 6:52:10 AM permalink

Arlington Park for 06/23/13
Race # Original
1 Sir Applesolutely
2 Lewderhoo
3 Pushin Up Daisy
4 Kipling's Joy
5 Silver Crush
6 Ann Accolade
7 Free Fighter
8 A Fitzing Reward
9 Cold Hard Truth
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Cecileabration
3 0
4 Movision
5 Onedayatatyme
6 0
7 Roi Le Roy
8 0
9 0
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 9:05:51 AM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
terpined.....you're missing the main qualifier in the method. The favorite MUST be 4/5 or less at pastime. For instance not one horse qualified at Belmont today but you counted Belmont as 3 losers. I didn't check the other races as I'm tired from posting too much on WOV today. You are using all favorites in 10 horse plus fields which will not work. There is a huge difference between a 2-1 favorite and a 4/5 or less fav.....thanks for tracking but make sure to use "odds on" horses in fields with ten or more betting interests.

Got it. Its really not a system, its rather a somewhat rare betting opportunity to look out for. With over 10 horses, its rare for a favorite to have odds as low as 4/5 or lower but it does happen. This would take more work to test since, I'm just guessing, but this situation might come up about once a week at a given track. That's a lot of digging through past performances.

Rechecked 7 tracks 6/22/13 and only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
Lonestar R10 +.60
Parx R9 +1

Not bad but tiny tiny tiny sample

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 10:48:31 AM permalink

terapined.......you'll get approximately 500 plays per year if your willing to watch every track , everyday. It's just another angle you can put into your arsenal. The angle will return 12-13% over a year. So, a 5,000 bet per race would generate serious tax free money. The problem of course is a 5,000 place bet will distort most place pools to one degree or another.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 11:28:07 AM permalink

at 5,000 per play you can expect a 50,000 draw down at any given time throughout the year.

Each day is better than the next

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 11:54:52 AM permalink

Backtracking, checked same 7 tracks in previous post. 6/21/13 and only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
Lonestar race 1 -2

system -.40 very tiny sample

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

FinsRule

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June 23rd, 2013 at 12:01:35 PM permalink

$5000 per play means you expect to win $600 per race. $600 x 500 races a year means you can make $300,000 a year in this system. Can you just admit that no, you cannot actually make $300,000 a year doing this? If you could, you would be, and you're not. And if you could, someone else would and that would erase the advantage.

I'm not even disagreeing with you. I don't think it's necessarily a bad bet. I just know that you can't make $300,000 (more with rebates) doing this. Saying with certainty that you can is dishonest.

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 12:23:14 PM permalink

More backtracking, checked same 7 tracks 6/16-20/13 and only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
Monmouth 6/16 race 7 -2

YTD 7 Tracks 6/16 to 6/22 system -2.40 only 4 races, small sample

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 12:34:45 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
$5000 per play means you expect to win $600 per race. $600 x 500 races a year means you can make $300,000 a year in this system. Can you just admit that no, you cannot actually make $300,000 a year doing this? If you could, you would be, and you're not. And if you could, someone else would and that would erase the advantage.

I'm not even disagreeing with you. I don't think it's necessarily a bad bet. I just know that you can't make $300,000 (more with rebates) doing this. Saying with certainty that you can is dishonest.

I've never been accused of being dishonest. If you read my post you would know that I put in a qualifier. A 5,000 bet would distort most place pools therefore not practical. I've also stated that 50,000 dollar drawdown would be a real possibility even if one could overcome the miserable place pools that are pervasive in US horse racing. Since you are a two dollar bettor, afraid of losing money, I think my system is perfect for you.

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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June 23rd, 2013 at 12:56:36 PM permalink

Woodbine 7 - #5 Canuspellpatience - 4/5 - Paid $2.40

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 1:15:57 PM permalink

nine more hits and you can buy yourself a beer.....keep it up Old Sport

Each day is better than the next

FinsRule

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June 23rd, 2013 at 1:22:33 PM permalink

Yeah, I mean, you know I'm not doing it... But maybe one of them are. I'm still quite sure why you're not listening to your own can't lose system...

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 1:28:28 PM permalink

No, I'm sure your using my system. It's perfect for you in that you can't handicap and a 2.00 place bet is right in your wheelhouse. Make sure to pay all taxes on your winnings, Old Sport.

Each day is better than the next

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 1:43:46 PM permalink

The 2 dollar bet is just theory and to track this system. Personally I would put down 10 to 20 if I was at the track.
Its not much moolah but hey, its horse racing, tough rake to overcome, any long term positive return is impressive.

More backtracking, checked same 7 tracks 6/15/13 and only 3 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
Churchill R9 +.60
Lonestar R9 +.40
Lonestar R10 +.60

+1.60 day

YTD 7 Tracks 6/15 to 6/22 system -.80 only 7 races, small sample

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

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June 23rd, 2013 at 1:54:07 PM permalink

How much you bet is all relative. As a young lad a 5 dollar bet at the dog track was a very serious proposition. The wins were sweeter back then. You'll get a better idea on how the system works when you get closer to 100 races. The returns are better in later races.

Each day is better than the next

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 2:45:22 PM permalink

Will post todays results once all tracks done.
For now
More backtracking, checked same 7 tracks 6/14/13 and only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
Lonestar R7 -2
Woodbine R5 +.50

-1.50 day

YTD 7 Tracks 6/14 to 6/22 system -2.30 only 9 races, small sample

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 3:27:00 PM permalink

More backtracking, checked same 7 tracks 6/12-13/13 and only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check handle.
6/13 Churchill R9 +.40
6/12 Woodbine R12 -2

-1.60 2 days

YTD 7 Tracks 6/12 to 6/22 system -3.90 only 11 races, small sample

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

terapined

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June 23rd, 2013 at 6:27:28 PM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation
8 tracks 6/23/13 and only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Woodbine R7 +.40

YTD 8 Tracks 6/12 to 6/23 system -3.50 only 12 races, small sample

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Woodbine
Hollywood

I added Hollywood since they have a big handle and checked it 6/12-6/23, no races qualified

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

terapined

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June 24th, 2013 at 5:06:02 PM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
More backtracking for more data
8 tracks 6/7/13-6/11/13 and only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Woodbine 6/7/13 R6 +.90
Woodbine 6/7/13 R9 +.90

+1.80 for 5 day period

YTD 8 Tracks 6/7/13 to 6/23/13 system -1.70 14 races

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

FinsRule

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June 24th, 2013 at 5:58:55 PM permalink

Quote: treetopbuddy
No, I'm sure your using my system. It's perfect for you in that you can't handicap and a 2.00 place bet is right in your wheelhouse. Make sure to pay all taxes on your winnings, Old Sport.

That's not nice. Well, I hope to make the NHC and prove you wrong!

terapined

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June 25th, 2013 at 4:16:31 AM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
8 tracks 6/24/13 and only 1 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Parx R8 +.40

YTD 8 Tracks 6/7/13 to 6/24/13 system -1.30 15 races

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

terapined

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Posts: 6205

Joined: Dec 1, 2012

June 25th, 2013 at 4:08:23 PM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
Backtracking for more data
8 tracks 6/1/13 to 6/6/13and only 3 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
6/1 Arlington R9 -2
6/2 Lonestar R4 +.20
6/1 Woodbine R7 -2

6 DAYS -3.80

YTD 8 Tracks 6/1/13 to 6/24/13 system -5.10 18 races

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 26th, 2013 at 4:44:50 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/26/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 0
3 Duke of Rutherford
4 Holycow Shes Sassy
5 0
6 Ice Climber
7 0
8 Courting Delilah
9
10
11

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Devils Tower
4 Toast With Honey
5 0
6 Gold Former
7 0
8 Somali Byrd
9
10
11

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Buzzard

Buzzard

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June 27th, 2013 at 8:10:17 AM permalink

Tree's system will work if you have a time machine. And can go back to the 1950's and 60's. When tracks had only 8 races a day, a short field was less than 8 horses, and the only exotic bet was the daily double. And bridge jumpers were guaranteed $2.20 and
not $2.10. Long shot players are now all over exacta's trifecta's quads even. And chalk players are where they always were, in the place or show pools.

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

terapined

Threads: 89
Posts: 6205

Joined: Dec 1, 2012

June 27th, 2013 at 5:33:21 PM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
6/26/13 and only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Woodbine R7 -2

YTD 8 Tracks 6/1/13 to 6/26/13 system -7.10 19 races

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine

System is starting to disappoint. What's sad in the state of racing these days is the small fields.
Will continue to monitor the situation going forward at 8 tracks. Backtracking for data, will only use 2 tracks, Woodbine and Lonestar. Out of the 19 race data I have compiled, 13 races were at those 2 tracks.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 28th, 2013 at 4:37:34 AM permalink

Wednesday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/26/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 0
3 Duke of Rutherford -$10.00 2nd
4 Holycow Shes Sassy -$10.00 6th
5 0
6 Ice Climber $0.00 scratch
7 0
8 Courting Delilah -$10.00 4th
9
10
11
-$30.00

Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Devils Tower -$10.00 3rd
4 Toast With Honey -$10.00 3rd
5 0
6 Gold Former $0.00 scratch
7 0
8 Somali Byrd $22.00 1st
9
10
11
$2.00

Grand Total -$28.00

I'll be just going to using the "Alternate" formula from now on. If that doesn't improve then I'll be done.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

June 28th, 2013 at 5:03:54 AM permalink

Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/28/13
Race # Alternate
1 Mosquillo
2 Bug Juice
3 Rojo Verde
4 0
5 Brewmistress
6 Red Rose Cat
7 0
8 0
9 Carnival Kitten

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

FinsRule

Threads: 128
Posts: 3914

Joined: Dec 23, 2009

June 28th, 2013 at 6:14:48 AM permalink

I like Red Rose Cat, not sure what the price will be.

I don't think you should give up completely, but I think you might need to start over...

terapined

Threads: 89
Posts: 6205

Joined: Dec 1, 2012

June 28th, 2013 at 6:05:53 PM permalink

Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
I went back and checked every race in the month of May for Woodbine and Lonestar
5/1/13-5/31/13 Woodbine and Lonestar, only 3 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.

Lonestar 5/3 R9 -2
Lonestar 5/17 R1 +.40
Lonestar 5/11 R9 +.40

Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 6/26/13 system -8.20 22 races

Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine

Results so far are very disappointing. If I get to minus 10 bucks, I will end the evaluation. Just too much to overcome with an average of win of +.45, 20 straight wins is only +9. Need about 4 1/2 wins for every loss for the system to work and right now its way way behind.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

treetopbuddy

Threads: 34
Posts: 1739

Joined: Jan 12, 2013

June 28th, 2013 at 6:26:19 PM permalink

Don't give up on it yet......your average return should be approximately .325 on a dollar or 2.65 on a two dollar bet. Strike rate 85%. Most second picks will go off at 3-1 or higher. When second pick is 4-1 or higher the play is stronger. I'd throw out races where second pick is less than 3-1. Just checked pools at Lone Star.....the cowboys there are all hat no cattle. Don't use Lone Star.

Each day is better than the next

treetopbuddy