Thoroughbred Picks
May 25th, 2013 at 9:15:16 AM
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terapined, thanks. I'll take it into consideration.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 10:38:16 AM
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terapined, I'm just trying to better understand your comments regarding claiming races and if this is a dumb question, my apologies.
You stated that you thought that the preparation would be subpar with horses in claiming races since they would run the risk of losing the horse. But aren't those horses entered in claiming races exactly for that purpose, that the owner wants to get rid of the horse? They would actually want to have them even better prepared, it seems to me. No?
You stated that you thought that the preparation would be subpar with horses in claiming races since they would run the risk of losing the horse. But aren't those horses entered in claiming races exactly for that purpose, that the owner wants to get rid of the horse? They would actually want to have them even better prepared, it seems to me. No?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 10:40:25 AM
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Quote: terapinedYou might want to bet on races with higher purses then claiming races. Higher purses would be Stakes races and allowance races. Any stakes race, jockeys, owners, trainers really prepare the horse well for the race due to the amount of money that can be won. I am always a bit suspicious of cheap claiming races. How much preparation and trainer attention does a claimer get, probably not much because owner and trainer always run the risk of losing that horse every race if another trainer decides to put in a claim.
Stakes and allowance racing are the most difficult races to handicap and comprise maybe 15% of all races. Those races are simply more contentious. In claiming races, there's a significant talent disparity, where, in most cases less than half of the field has a realistic shot at winning the race. Many horses are entered just to fill the race, or in for a workout. It's all about finding "live" horses, an acquired skill, that can only be gain through experience.
Each day is better than the next
May 25th, 2013 at 12:51:15 PM
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I see where Breaking Ball was a scratch in the 5th. The next best pick becomes Dancing Rock.
So in the 2nd. Alternate picks, we are replacing Breaking Ball with #8, Dancing Rock.
So in the 2nd. Alternate picks, we are replacing Breaking Ball with #8, Dancing Rock.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 2:53:25 PM
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Wow. It looks like the tweak to the original formula is paying some dividends. Back to back with Imposing Grace and Commando Kat. Nice payoffs.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 4:39:04 PM
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A pretty nice day.....
Today's Results:
Race # Original
1 La Pinata -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Frontier Days -$10.00 6th
4 0 $0.00
5 Peso -$10.00 2nd
6 0 $0.00
7 Imposing Grace $86.00 1st
8 Commando Kat $365.00 1st
9 Hattaash -$10.00 6th
10 Brown Almighty -$10.00
11 Abby's Slew -$10.00
$391.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Little Kinkaid -$10.00 6th
2 Misty Castle -$10.00 3rd
3 Bin Elusive -$10.00 2nd
4 Mindy Can Dance $6.00 1st
5 Piratesinparadise -$10.00 3rd
6 Sugar Spun -$10.00 7th
7 Lotta Lovin -$10.00 3rd
8 Double Silver -$10.00 11th
9 Seruni -$10.00 4th
10 Fordubai -$10.00
11 Mission Storm -$10.00 2nd
-$94.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 Dancing Rock -$10.00 6th
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 All Stormy -$10.00 8th
10 0 $0.00
11 Coaming -$10.00
-$30.00
Grand Total $267.00
Today's Results:
Race # Original
1 La Pinata -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Frontier Days -$10.00 6th
4 0 $0.00
5 Peso -$10.00 2nd
6 0 $0.00
7 Imposing Grace $86.00 1st
8 Commando Kat $365.00 1st
9 Hattaash -$10.00 6th
10 Brown Almighty -$10.00
11 Abby's Slew -$10.00
$391.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Little Kinkaid -$10.00 6th
2 Misty Castle -$10.00 3rd
3 Bin Elusive -$10.00 2nd
4 Mindy Can Dance $6.00 1st
5 Piratesinparadise -$10.00 3rd
6 Sugar Spun -$10.00 7th
7 Lotta Lovin -$10.00 3rd
8 Double Silver -$10.00 11th
9 Seruni -$10.00 4th
10 Fordubai -$10.00
11 Mission Storm -$10.00 2nd
-$94.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 Dancing Rock -$10.00 6th
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 All Stormy -$10.00 8th
10 0 $0.00
11 Coaming -$10.00
-$30.00
Grand Total $267.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 6:48:45 PM
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Treetop is right.
The other point - Sometimes owners/trainers want their horse claimed. Sometimes not. You just gotta figure out when.
The other point - Sometimes owners/trainers want their horse claimed. Sometimes not. You just gotta figure out when.
May 26th, 2013 at 6:59:05 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/26/13
Race # Original
1 Arrested by Duffy
2 0
3 Fab a Dasher
4 Perfect Step
5 Yankee Injunuity
6 0
7 Bella Serenade
8 Red Rose Cat
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Queen of Scioto
2 Vino Limbo Tango
3 Quality Diplomat
4 Miss Julia
5 0
6 Silver Encore
7 Oskee Wow Wow
8 Sporting Holiday
9 Appltatacorntamata
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 Richieslildarling
5 Pirates Vow
6 0
7 Milestonemissile
8 0
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 05/26/13
Race # Original
1 Arrested by Duffy
2 0
3 Fab a Dasher
4 Perfect Step
5 Yankee Injunuity
6 0
7 Bella Serenade
8 Red Rose Cat
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Queen of Scioto
2 Vino Limbo Tango
3 Quality Diplomat
4 Miss Julia
5 0
6 Silver Encore
7 Oskee Wow Wow
8 Sporting Holiday
9 Appltatacorntamata
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 Richieslildarling
5 Pirates Vow
6 0
7 Milestonemissile
8 0
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 26th, 2013 at 1:14:26 PM
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OK. Pirates Vow in the 5th. wins and nets me $79 on my $10 wager. I had lost $10 on Richieslidarling, which leaves me +$69 on the day and will hang it up and call it a day with the 2nd Alternate formula. Though I will post the 2nd. Alternate total for the day also.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2013 at 7:11:16 AM
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Arlington Park for 05/26/13
Race # Original
1 Arrested by Duffy -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Fab a Dasher -$10.00 7th
4 Perfect Step -$10.00 5th
5 Yankee Injunuity -$10.00 2nd
6 0 $0.00
7 Bella Serenade -$10.00 4th
8 Red Rose Cat -$10.00 8th
9 0 $0.00
10
-$60.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Queen of Scioto -$10.00 2nd
2 Vino Limbo Tango $22.00 1st
3 Quality Diplomat -$10.00 2nd
4 Miss Julia -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 Silver Encore $11.00 1st
7 Oskee Wow Wow -$10.00 5th
8 Sporting Holiday $21.00 1st
9 Appltatacorntamata -$10.00 2nd.
10
$4.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Richieslildarling -$10.00 7th
5 Pirates Vow $79.00 1st
6 0 $0.00
7 Milestonemissile -$10.00 8th
8 0 $0.00
9 0 $0.00
10
$59.00
Grand Total $3.00
Race # Original
1 Arrested by Duffy -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Fab a Dasher -$10.00 7th
4 Perfect Step -$10.00 5th
5 Yankee Injunuity -$10.00 2nd
6 0 $0.00
7 Bella Serenade -$10.00 4th
8 Red Rose Cat -$10.00 8th
9 0 $0.00
10
-$60.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Queen of Scioto -$10.00 2nd
2 Vino Limbo Tango $22.00 1st
3 Quality Diplomat -$10.00 2nd
4 Miss Julia -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 Silver Encore $11.00 1st
7 Oskee Wow Wow -$10.00 5th
8 Sporting Holiday $21.00 1st
9 Appltatacorntamata -$10.00 2nd.
10
$4.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Richieslildarling -$10.00 7th
5 Pirates Vow $79.00 1st
6 0 $0.00
7 Milestonemissile -$10.00 8th
8 0 $0.00
9 0 $0.00
10
$59.00
Grand Total $3.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2013 at 7:14:32 AM
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Year-to-date Results (based upon mythical $10 wagers):
Original +$27
1st. Alternate -$199
2nd. Alternate +$59.40
2nd. Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$120.40
Original +$27
1st. Alternate -$199
2nd. Alternate +$59.40
2nd. Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$120.40
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2013 at 7:57:10 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/27/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Lock N Lola
3 Richysthunderingal
4 Twylas Red Cat
5 Macho Coach
6 Bingorun
7 Hughes the Daddy
8 Hungry Wildcat
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Chica Silver
2 Trac N Jam
3 0
4 Nolan's Territory
5 Eleven Final Fours
6 Grand Silver
7 0
8 Izzy Golden
9 Rope Dancer
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 Broken Trust Fund
3 Wild Pantera
4 0
5 Ultimate X.
6 0
7 0
8 Ha Long Bay
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 05/27/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Lock N Lola
3 Richysthunderingal
4 Twylas Red Cat
5 Macho Coach
6 Bingorun
7 Hughes the Daddy
8 Hungry Wildcat
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Chica Silver
2 Trac N Jam
3 0
4 Nolan's Territory
5 Eleven Final Fours
6 Grand Silver
7 0
8 Izzy Golden
9 Rope Dancer
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 Broken Trust Fund
3 Wild Pantera
4 0
5 Ultimate X.
6 0
7 0
8 Ha Long Bay
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2013 at 10:15:47 AM
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There's so much good stakes racing today. You should watch some of that too....
I've been trying Derby Wars lately. I just do showvivor contests on there, it's fun. Good for a day like this.
I've been trying Derby Wars lately. I just do showvivor contests on there, it's fun. Good for a day like this.
May 27th, 2013 at 3:09:51 PM
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Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 05/27/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Lock N Lola -$10.00 6th
3 Richysthunderingal $10.00 1st
4 Twylas Red Cat -$10.00 4th
5 Macho Coach -$10.00 4th
6 Bingorun -$10.00 6th
7 Hughes the Daddy $16.00 1st
8 Hungry Wildcat $15.00 1st
9 0 $0.00
10
$1.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Chica Silver $27.00 1st
2 Trac N Jam -$10.00 5th
3 0 $0.00
4 Nolan's Territory -$10.00 5th
5 Eleven Final Fours -$10.00 2nd
6 Grand Silver -$10.00 3rd
7 0 $0.00
8 Izzy Golden -$10.00
9 Rope Dancer -$10.00 4th
10
-$33.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 Broken Trust Fund $0.00 scratch
3 Wild Pantera -$10.00 8th
4 0 $0.00
5 Ultimate X. -$10.00 5th
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 Ha Long Bay -$10.00 2nd
9 0 $0.00
10
-$30.00
Grand Total -$62.00
Arlington Park for 05/27/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Lock N Lola -$10.00 6th
3 Richysthunderingal $10.00 1st
4 Twylas Red Cat -$10.00 4th
5 Macho Coach -$10.00 4th
6 Bingorun -$10.00 6th
7 Hughes the Daddy $16.00 1st
8 Hungry Wildcat $15.00 1st
9 0 $0.00
10
$1.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Chica Silver $27.00 1st
2 Trac N Jam -$10.00 5th
3 0 $0.00
4 Nolan's Territory -$10.00 5th
5 Eleven Final Fours -$10.00 2nd
6 Grand Silver -$10.00 3rd
7 0 $0.00
8 Izzy Golden -$10.00
9 Rope Dancer -$10.00 4th
10
-$33.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 Broken Trust Fund $0.00 scratch
3 Wild Pantera -$10.00 8th
4 0 $0.00
5 Ultimate X. -$10.00 5th
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 Ha Long Bay -$10.00 2nd
9 0 $0.00
10
-$30.00
Grand Total -$62.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 27th, 2013 at 3:18:44 PM
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I'll be dropping the 1st. Alternate formula. No tweak seems to help it. I will be sticking to just the original and what was the 2nd. alternate, now simply called the "Alternate".
Year-to-date results (based upon mythical $10 wagers to win):
Original +$28
Alternate +$29.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$90.40
Year-to-date results (based upon mythical $10 wagers to win):
Original +$28
Alternate +$29.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$90.40
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 29th, 2013 at 5:03:56 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/29/13
Race # Original
1 Passionately Sweet
2 0
3 Carson's Hawk
4 0
5 0
6 Isle of Skye
7 0
8 0
9 Go Getem
10
Race # Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Captain Jack
7 0
8 0
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 05/29/13
Race # Original
1 Passionately Sweet
2 0
3 Carson's Hawk
4 0
5 0
6 Isle of Skye
7 0
8 0
9 Go Getem
10
Race # Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Captain Jack
7 0
8 0
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 30th, 2013 at 6:17:40 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleThere's so much good stakes racing today. You should watch some of that too....
I've been trying Derby Wars lately. I just do showvivor contests on there, it's fun. Good for a day like this.
I did the $4 AP Wednesday Showvivor Contest. 39 people enter. Person who lasts the longest wins $100, 2nd wins $25.
First race, I picked the 10-1 shot, this knocked out 34 people and I survived. Second race, I picked the 2nd choice at 2-1, this knocked out the other 4 people (who split the $25 2nd prize) and I won $100. Easiest $100 I have ever won.
May 30th, 2013 at 1:47:24 PM
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FinsRule, nice! Congrats!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 31st, 2013 at 4:32:36 AM
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Year-to-date Results (based upon mythical $10 wagers):
Original +$21
Alternate +$19.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$80.40
Total YTD +$40.40
Original +$21
Alternate +$19.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$80.40
Total YTD +$40.40
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 31st, 2013 at 4:33:35 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/31/13
Race # Original
1 Priceless Shore
2 Scot's Sunnyriver
3 0
4 Mykukubird
5 0
6 Texas Hedge
7 0
8 Flying Rapunzel
9 Collin's Smile
10
Race # Alternate:
1 0
2 Buttercups Baby
3 0
4 Autumn Splendor
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Spivey
10
Arlington Park for 05/31/13
Race # Original
1 Priceless Shore
2 Scot's Sunnyriver
3 0
4 Mykukubird
5 0
6 Texas Hedge
7 0
8 Flying Rapunzel
9 Collin's Smile
10
Race # Alternate:
1 0
2 Buttercups Baby
3 0
4 Autumn Splendor
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Spivey
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2013 at 7:19:11 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 05/31/13
Race # Original
1 Priceless Shore -$10.00 6th
2 Scot's Sunnyriver -$10.00 6th
3 0 $0.00
4 Mykukubird -$10.00 6th
5 0 $0.00
6 Texas Hedge -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 Flying Rapunzel -$10.00
9 Collin's Smile -$10.00
10
-$60.00
Race # Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 Buttercups Baby -$10.00 3rd
3 0 $0.00
4 Autumn Splendor $65.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Spivey -$10.00
10
$45.00
Grand Total -$15.00
Arlington Park for 05/31/13
Race # Original
1 Priceless Shore -$10.00 6th
2 Scot's Sunnyriver -$10.00 6th
3 0 $0.00
4 Mykukubird -$10.00 6th
5 0 $0.00
6 Texas Hedge -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 Flying Rapunzel -$10.00
9 Collin's Smile -$10.00
10
-$60.00
Race # Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 Buttercups Baby -$10.00 3rd
3 0 $0.00
4 Autumn Splendor $65.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Spivey -$10.00
10
$45.00
Grand Total -$15.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2013 at 7:20:37 AM
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YTD results (Based upon mythical $10 wagers to win):
Original -$39.00
Alternate +$64.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$135.40
Total YTD +$25.40
Original -$39.00
Alternate +$64.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$135.40
Total YTD +$25.40
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2013 at 8:16:13 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/01/13
Race # Original
1 Distant Bugle
2 0
3 Rivershire
4 Fastestwhogetspaid
5 Hit Girl
6 Cave Creeker
7 Julmae
8 0
9 Sir Bob
10 Myles
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Sancerre
4 Hoodlum
5 0
6 Thecushmaker
7 0
8 0
9 Smokin Glock
10 0
Arlington Park for 06/01/13
Race # Original
1 Distant Bugle
2 0
3 Rivershire
4 Fastestwhogetspaid
5 Hit Girl
6 Cave Creeker
7 Julmae
8 0
9 Sir Bob
10 Myles
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Sancerre
4 Hoodlum
5 0
6 Thecushmaker
7 0
8 0
9 Smokin Glock
10 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2013 at 4:04:36 PM
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06/01/13 Results:
Arlington Park for 06/01/13
Race # Original
1 Distant Bugle -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Rivershire -$10.00 3rd
4 Fastestwhogetspaid -$10.00 9th
5 Hit Girl -$10.00 7th.
6 Cave Creeker -$10.00 3rd.
7 Julmae -$10.00 5th.
8 0 $0.00
9 Sir Bob -$10.00
10 Myles -$10.00
-$80.00
Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Sancerre $0.00 scratched
4 Hoodlum -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 Thecushmaker -$10.00 6th.
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Smokin Glock -$10.00
10 0
-$30.00
Grand Total -$110.00
Arlington Park for 06/01/13
Race # Original
1 Distant Bugle -$10.00 3rd
2 0 $0.00
3 Rivershire -$10.00 3rd
4 Fastestwhogetspaid -$10.00 9th
5 Hit Girl -$10.00 7th.
6 Cave Creeker -$10.00 3rd.
7 Julmae -$10.00 5th.
8 0 $0.00
9 Sir Bob -$10.00
10 Myles -$10.00
-$80.00
Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Sancerre $0.00 scratched
4 Hoodlum -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 Thecushmaker -$10.00 6th.
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Smokin Glock -$10.00
10 0
-$30.00
Grand Total -$110.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 1st, 2013 at 4:05:27 PM
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YTD Results:
Original -$119.00
Alternate +$34.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$105.40
Total YTD -$84.60
Original -$119.00
Alternate +$34.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$105.40
Total YTD -$84.60
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 2nd, 2013 at 7:37:56 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/02/13
Race # Original
1 Ravin's Rich Girl
2 0
3 0
4 Tripping
5 Che Serai
6 Courser
7 0
8 Lewderhoo
9 Stivers Suprise
10 0
Race # Alternate
1 Mirka
2 0
3 0
4 Midnight Lace
5 Bye Bye Bunting
6 Somali Byrd
7 0
8 Millennium Star
9 Fleet Encounter
10 0
Arlington Park for 06/02/13
Race # Original
1 Ravin's Rich Girl
2 0
3 0
4 Tripping
5 Che Serai
6 Courser
7 0
8 Lewderhoo
9 Stivers Suprise
10 0
Race # Alternate
1 Mirka
2 0
3 0
4 Midnight Lace
5 Bye Bye Bunting
6 Somali Byrd
7 0
8 Millennium Star
9 Fleet Encounter
10 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 2nd, 2013 at 8:39:38 AM
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Ok, I just have to say it. If you're not going to share your formula, why are you posting your picks? You know you can get a free blog somewhere.
You don't even need to share the whole thing. Something like "I take last speed figures and money earned and look at their last race to see if they got into any trouble"
I think the best part of this forum and I guess any forum, is the fact that people will tell you when you're wrong, give you a different side to things, and improve your strategies.
I guess I just don't understand the goal.
You don't even need to share the whole thing. Something like "I take last speed figures and money earned and look at their last race to see if they got into any trouble"
I think the best part of this forum and I guess any forum, is the fact that people will tell you when you're wrong, give you a different side to things, and improve your strategies.
I guess I just don't understand the goal.
June 2nd, 2013 at 8:41:52 AM
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I like your alternate picks in 8 & 9 and I'm going to be playing them in a double. With the scratch in the 8th, I think Millenium Star is the lock of the day, but he'll probably go off at 3-5. I'm hoping the double with Fleet Encounter provides some value though.
June 2nd, 2013 at 9:48:58 AM
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FinsRule,
With all due respect, no. I don't want to share my formula. If you would prefer that I not post this stuff then I can stop.
Whether I'm right or wrong will show in the results. Results are all that matters.
My goal really is to obtain some commentary or thoughts that I can possibly use to get educated and improve upon this. My formula isn't needed for someone to do that. It's as simple as "why would you pick this damn horse............this is why it's dumb".
With all due respect, no. I don't want to share my formula. If you would prefer that I not post this stuff then I can stop.
Whether I'm right or wrong will show in the results. Results are all that matters.
My goal really is to obtain some commentary or thoughts that I can possibly use to get educated and improve upon this. My formula isn't needed for someone to do that. It's as simple as "why would you pick this damn horse............this is why it's dumb".
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 2nd, 2013 at 11:11:23 AM
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I don't care if you share your formula, and it's fine if you post your picks.
I just think you'll get more out of it if you give more. I'm not going to spend my time telling you why I don't like your pick in race 5, if you're not going to tell me why you do.
There's more I could write about this, but I'm out of time for now. I'll be at AP for the 8th.
I just think you'll get more out of it if you give more. I'm not going to spend my time telling you why I don't like your pick in race 5, if you're not going to tell me why you do.
There's more I could write about this, but I'm out of time for now. I'll be at AP for the 8th.
June 2nd, 2013 at 11:14:54 AM
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OK. Thanks. I appreciate the frank discussion. Good Luck today!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 5:36:09 AM
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Yesterday's results:
Arlington Park for 06/02/13
Race # Original
1 Ravin's Rich Girl -$10.00 5th
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Tripping $0.00 scratch
5 Che Serai -$10.00 4th
6 Courser -$10.00 4th
7 0 $0.00
8 Lewderhoo -$10.00 4th
9 Stivers Suprise -$10.00 7th
10 0
-$50.00
Race # Alternate
1 Mirka -$10.00 6th
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Midnight Lace $0.00 scratch
5 Bye Bye Bunting -$10.00 9th
6 Somali Byrd -$10.00 5th
7 0 $0.00
8 Millennium Star $11.00 1st
9 Fleet Encounter -$10.00 2nd
10 0
-$29.00
Grand Total -$79.00
Arlington Park for 06/02/13
Race # Original
1 Ravin's Rich Girl -$10.00 5th
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Tripping $0.00 scratch
5 Che Serai -$10.00 4th
6 Courser -$10.00 4th
7 0 $0.00
8 Lewderhoo -$10.00 4th
9 Stivers Suprise -$10.00 7th
10 0
-$50.00
Race # Alternate
1 Mirka -$10.00 6th
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Midnight Lace $0.00 scratch
5 Bye Bye Bunting -$10.00 9th
6 Somali Byrd -$10.00 5th
7 0 $0.00
8 Millennium Star $11.00 1st
9 Fleet Encounter -$10.00 2nd
10 0
-$29.00
Grand Total -$79.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 5:42:23 AM
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YTD Results:
Original -$169.00
Alternate +$5.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$86.40
Total YTD -$163.60
Original -$169.00
Alternate +$5.40
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$86.40
Total YTD -$163.60
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 5:58:41 AM
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Quote: steeldcoOK. Thanks. I appreciate the frank discussion. Good Luck today!
I had the double, but due to a toteboard error, canceled the bet. I made up for it with the $61 exacta in the 9th. $45 profit on two races, works for me.
June 3rd, 2013 at 7:25:49 AM
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Cool. Congrats!
I find that the infrequency of winning is awfully frustrating, even though you don't necessarily have to pick winners frequently.
I find that the infrequency of winning is awfully frustrating, even though you don't necessarily have to pick winners frequently.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 9:10:47 AM
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It's a lot like the Wizards motto, it's not whether you win or lose, it's whether or not you had a good bet. Sometimes the photos work in your favor, sometimes they don't.
June 3rd, 2013 at 9:16:14 AM
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What I didn't have time to say yesterday, which I do now, is that I think there are two initial reasons why you can't win with your strategy.
1. You don't take into account track bias. Some days front runners win all day. Some days it's fair. Some days it's stretch runners.
2. You don't take into account post-time odds. Your bets should be that you pick the three horse at 6-1 or better at post-time, or no bet at all. If you like a horse at 10-1, you probably don't like it at 2-1.
1. You don't take into account track bias. Some days front runners win all day. Some days it's fair. Some days it's stretch runners.
2. You don't take into account post-time odds. Your bets should be that you pick the three horse at 6-1 or better at post-time, or no bet at all. If you like a horse at 10-1, you probably don't like it at 2-1.
June 3rd, 2013 at 9:49:14 AM
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FinsRule,
How would I take track bias into account? Would you say that if the first race or two are won by chalks then it will probably be a day for the favorites?
Interesting, and true comment regarding post-time odds. My issue with that is that I am not always able to check the toteboard. But again, an excellent point.
Thank you for your time and help!
How would I take track bias into account? Would you say that if the first race or two are won by chalks then it will probably be a day for the favorites?
Interesting, and true comment regarding post-time odds. My issue with that is that I am not always able to check the toteboard. But again, an excellent point.
Thank you for your time and help!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 10:31:19 AM
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No, I don't think it's odds as much as running style. (Speed, Closers) And that is only something you can determine by watching the races or reading the charts (but it takes a while for them to be posted)
For example, you like a closer at 4-1. Well, it's 2 minutes to the race, and it's 10-1. You're excited, right? Well, in this case, a horse within 2 lengths of the lead at the 1/4 pole has won every polytrack race. Your horse has never been that close in any of his 10 races. That's why his odds are so high. Unless he's head and shoulders above the other horses, he is a bad bet. Tracks develop these biases throughout the meet, or after different weather and conditioning of the track. AP typically has a speed favoring bias, especially on the polytrack.
For example, you like a closer at 4-1. Well, it's 2 minutes to the race, and it's 10-1. You're excited, right? Well, in this case, a horse within 2 lengths of the lead at the 1/4 pole has won every polytrack race. Your horse has never been that close in any of his 10 races. That's why his odds are so high. Unless he's head and shoulders above the other horses, he is a bad bet. Tracks develop these biases throughout the meet, or after different weather and conditioning of the track. AP typically has a speed favoring bias, especially on the polytrack.
June 3rd, 2013 at 11:01:59 AM
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FinsRule, thank you! I have a lot to learn..........
Would you say that a change in odds on a horse from short to long should indicate not to bet that horse?
Or vice versa, a change from long odds to short cause you to take that horse.
In general, of course. I realize that this type of rationale is not all there is to it.
Would you say that a change in odds on a horse from short to long should indicate not to bet that horse?
Or vice versa, a change from long odds to short cause you to take that horse.
In general, of course. I realize that this type of rationale is not all there is to it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 3rd, 2013 at 11:09:16 AM
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If you've done your proper handicapping, short odds to long should not be a problem. But at the same time, you need to be looking at biases. And maybe just look again to make sure you're not missing anything.
Long to short scares me, but it won't cause me to bet it unless it's a first time starter. If you didn't like the horse at 10-1, you shouldn't like it at 3-1.
Long to short scares me, but it won't cause me to bet it unless it's a first time starter. If you didn't like the horse at 10-1, you shouldn't like it at 3-1.
June 3rd, 2013 at 11:09:58 AM
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I hope that we have a winning day with the alternate formula in the next day's races. The alternate has not yet had 3 consecutive days of losses. We are at 2 days in a row of losses right now. Hopefully that trend holds.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2013 at 7:56:05 AM
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Arlington Park for 06/05/13
Race # Original
1 Razzo Succo
2 Limestone
3 0
4 La Pinata
5 0
6 Latika Love
7 0
8 Code of Conduct
9 Chas the Man
10 0
Race # Alternate
1 Roarin Missile
2 High Flying Jake
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Katie the Lady
7 0
8 0
9 Mephisto Aristo
10 0
Race # Original
1 Razzo Succo
2 Limestone
3 0
4 La Pinata
5 0
6 Latika Love
7 0
8 Code of Conduct
9 Chas the Man
10 0
Race # Alternate
1 Roarin Missile
2 High Flying Jake
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Katie the Lady
7 0
8 0
9 Mephisto Aristo
10 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2013 at 3:39:28 PM
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Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/05/13
Race # Original
1 Razzo Succo $10.00 1st
2 Limestone $22.00 1st
3 0 $0.00
4 La Pinata $61.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 Latika Love -$10.00 3rd
7 0 $0.00
8 Code of Conduct -$10.00 4th
9 Chas the Man -$10.00 5th
10 0
$63.00
Race # Alternate
1 Roarin Missile -$10.00 5th
2 High Flying Jake -$10.00 8th
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 0 $0.00
6 Katie the Lady $5.00 1st
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Mephisto Aristo -$10.00 10th
10 0 $0.00
-$25.00
Grand Total $38.00
Arlington Park for 06/05/13
Race # Original
1 Razzo Succo $10.00 1st
2 Limestone $22.00 1st
3 0 $0.00
4 La Pinata $61.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 Latika Love -$10.00 3rd
7 0 $0.00
8 Code of Conduct -$10.00 4th
9 Chas the Man -$10.00 5th
10 0
$63.00
Race # Alternate
1 Roarin Missile -$10.00 5th
2 High Flying Jake -$10.00 8th
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 0 $0.00
6 Katie the Lady $5.00 1st
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Mephisto Aristo -$10.00 10th
10 0 $0.00
-$25.00
Grand Total $38.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 5th, 2013 at 3:41:29 PM
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YTD Results:
Original -$106.00
Alternate -19.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$71.40
Total YTD -$125.60
Original -$106.00
Alternate -19.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$71.40
Total YTD -$125.60
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2013 at 10:14:52 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/07/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee
2 0
3 Annabird
4 Charlotte's Cape
5 Peligrosa
6 Abby's Slew
7 Call Me Classy
8 I See Mambo
9 0
10
Race # Alternate
1 Rojo Verde
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 Blissful Gold
6 Coaming
7 Just Waiting
8 Wayne's Kitten
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 06/07/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee
2 0
3 Annabird
4 Charlotte's Cape
5 Peligrosa
6 Abby's Slew
7 Call Me Classy
8 I See Mambo
9 0
10
Race # Alternate
1 Rojo Verde
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 Blissful Gold
6 Coaming
7 Just Waiting
8 Wayne's Kitten
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2013 at 5:46:00 PM
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Not having fun at this at all...........not yet anyway.
Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/07/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee -$10.00 4th
2 0
3 Annabird -$10.00 4th
4 Charlotte's Cape -$10.00 3rd
5 Peligrosa -$10.00 6th
6 Abby's Slew -$10.00 3rd
7 Call Me Classy -$10.00 6th
8 I See Mambo -$10.00 8th
9 0
10
-$70.00
Race # Alternate
1 Rojo Verde -$10.00 2nd
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 Blissful Gold -$10.00 9th
6 Coaming -$10.00 8th
7 Just Waiting -$10.00 7th
8 Wayne's Kitten -$10.00 4th
9 0
10
-$50.00
Grand Total -$120.00
Today's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/07/13
Race # Original
1 Artful Bee -$10.00 4th
2 0
3 Annabird -$10.00 4th
4 Charlotte's Cape -$10.00 3rd
5 Peligrosa -$10.00 6th
6 Abby's Slew -$10.00 3rd
7 Call Me Classy -$10.00 6th
8 I See Mambo -$10.00 8th
9 0
10
-$70.00
Race # Alternate
1 Rojo Verde -$10.00 2nd
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 Blissful Gold -$10.00 9th
6 Coaming -$10.00 8th
7 Just Waiting -$10.00 7th
8 Wayne's Kitten -$10.00 4th
9 0
10
-$50.00
Grand Total -$120.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2013 at 5:46:41 PM
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YTD Results:
Original -$176.00
Alternate -69.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$21.40
Total YTD -$245.60
Original -$176.00
Alternate -69.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$21.40
Total YTD -$245.60
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 7th, 2013 at 6:40:38 PM
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Interesting results. You may want to consider the size of the field when considering a bet. I checked The entries for today. 1st 4 races averaged 6 horses per race, very small field. I generally stay away from small fields due very limited betting opportunities. I like betting on races with at least 10 horses, better odds and interesting to handicap.
You may want to look over your results and see if you are doing better or worse in the small fields, If of course worse, you may want to stay away from those small fields.
Why Arlington Park, home track?
You may want to look over your results and see if you are doing better or worse in the small fields, If of course worse, you may want to stay away from those small fields.
Why Arlington Park, home track?
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 7th, 2013 at 6:51:43 PM
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I've been using Arlington because they have a free database available for past performances.
Thank you for the advice. I will review field size.
Thank you for the advice. I will review field size.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
