Thoroughbred Picks
May 14th, 2013 at 12:49:16 PM
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The following is bound to drive Buzz nuts....but here we go.
I know absolutely nothing about horses. NOTHING. But it as though I have too much time on my hands and so I decided to find some data that I could work with to see whether I can come up with a way of picking horses that works.
I found data for Arlington Park racetrack that I fooled around with and so I have developed some picks for tomorrow. These are all to win.
Race # Arlington Park for 05/15/13
1 Hurracane Katie (IL)
2 Mai Tai Mama (KY)
3 Heart Doctor (FL)
4 0
5 Tsunami Salli (IL)
6 Tonzie (IL)
7 Chas the Man (IL)
8 King Rootin Tootin (IL)
9 Dragonfly Chaser (IL)
I know absolutely nothing about horses. NOTHING. But it as though I have too much time on my hands and so I decided to find some data that I could work with to see whether I can come up with a way of picking horses that works.
I found data for Arlington Park racetrack that I fooled around with and so I have developed some picks for tomorrow. These are all to win.
Race # Arlington Park for 05/15/13
1 Hurracane Katie (IL)
2 Mai Tai Mama (KY)
3 Heart Doctor (FL)
4 0
5 Tsunami Salli (IL)
6 Tonzie (IL)
7 Chas the Man (IL)
8 King Rootin Tootin (IL)
9 Dragonfly Chaser (IL)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 14th, 2013 at 1:07:30 PM
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I'm not going to be able to make it for my customary late double Wednesday at AP. What bets are these - wps?
May 14th, 2013 at 1:11:31 PM
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You can't beat the races. Occasionally you can beat a race. Code of Conduct #1 8th Race may 15 Arlington.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
May 14th, 2013 at 1:16:09 PM
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FinsRule, these are all to win.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 14th, 2013 at 1:16:50 PM
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Buzz, as I stated I know nothing about horses. Don't even know if they have 4 legs.....gonna see what the data brings though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 14th, 2013 at 1:48:25 PM
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Buzz, so I decided to take a look at where Code of Conduct ranked within my picks. He is actually picked to be 2nd.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 14th, 2013 at 1:55:47 PM
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So Buzz, I'm thinkin' that since my data shows Code of Conduct to be 2nd. and your horse pickin' prowess says he wins......then maybe he is indeed the winner.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 11:14:19 AM
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Well, I start off with a loser as De Nella wins. The pick of Hurracane Katie came in 4th.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 11:15:18 AM
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Sorry. Hurracane Katie actually came in 5th.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 11:16:59 AM
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The next race, the 2nd. at Arlington, has a pick of Mai Tai Mama. This was the horse ranked highest for the day. Would love to see a win here.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 11:47:53 AM
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So much for my highest rated horse. Lemondropspritzer was the winner. Mai Tai Mama came in 5th............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 4:12:35 PM
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Well, this maiden voyage sure sucked. O for everything.......
I'll give this a little time though.
The next set of picks:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/17/13
1 0
2 0
3 Hattaash
4 Telma
5 Judy My Darling
6 0
7 0
8 Let It Rain
9 0
I'll give this a little time though.
The next set of picks:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/17/13
1 0
2 0
3 Hattaash
4 Telma
5 Judy My Darling
6 0
7 0
8 Let It Rain
9 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 15th, 2013 at 5:57:26 PM
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Its tough to win at the races due to the steep rake, about 20 per cent. There is a theory for picking winners. Andy Beyer, a legend among horse bettors, believes strongly in trip handicapping. What Andy Beyer does is keep detailed notes on races he watches. He pays particular attention to good and bad trips. A bad trip is being forced wide on turns and being blocked in, starting on a outside gate, poor start ect. A great trip is inside on the turns and not being blocked from making a move, inside gate start, good start ect. Beyer looks for good horses that didn't finish well due to a bad trip. That's where the good bets are. When that horse runs again, usually get great odds and its a very good bet.
That's a lot of studying. Another great tool is a creation by of course , Andy Beyer, Beyer Speed Figures. He takes a lot into account creating his speed figures. There are a lot of details Beyer considers to calculate his speed figures. For example If a horse does a mile in say 2min 30 sec at Belmont. Another horse ran 2min 30 sec at Pimlico. Now both horses are competing at Tampa bay downs, which is better. Look at the Beyer speed figures. Belmont has wide turns, Pimlico tight turns. There are other differences in the track and Beyer takes this all into account. Say you have a horse that always races 6 furlongs and another horse always runs 8 furlong races. How do you compare times when both are in a 7 furlong race, check out the beyer speed figures. They are so popular, daily racing form pays Beyer to publish them. So check the racing form, the speed figures are right there.
Good Luck and have fun, I always enjoy betting on the races just for fun
That's a lot of studying. Another great tool is a creation by of course , Andy Beyer, Beyer Speed Figures. He takes a lot into account creating his speed figures. There are a lot of details Beyer considers to calculate his speed figures. For example If a horse does a mile in say 2min 30 sec at Belmont. Another horse ran 2min 30 sec at Pimlico. Now both horses are competing at Tampa bay downs, which is better. Look at the Beyer speed figures. Belmont has wide turns, Pimlico tight turns. There are other differences in the track and Beyer takes this all into account. Say you have a horse that always races 6 furlongs and another horse always runs 8 furlong races. How do you compare times when both are in a 7 furlong race, check out the beyer speed figures. They are so popular, daily racing form pays Beyer to publish them. So check the racing form, the speed figures are right there.
Good Luck and have fun, I always enjoy betting on the races just for fun
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
May 16th, 2013 at 3:25:11 AM
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terapined, thanks for the info. As always, losing is never fun. Very discouraging to go 0 for everything. I have a lot to learn..........
Thanks again!
Thanks again!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 17th, 2013 at 5:13:38 PM
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Wow.....is there ANY chance of winning at this stuff???? Another 0 for everything.
Tomorrow's Picks at Arlington:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/18/13
1 Gavilan
2 Flying Rapunzel
3 Slammy Boy
4 0
5 0
6 Helloagainmyfriend
7 0
8 Delightful Daisy
9 Age of Aquarius
10 Spring Formal
After a couple of days, I almost feel like throwing darts might be a better option with racing............
Tomorrow's Picks at Arlington:
Race # Arlington Park for 05/18/13
1 Gavilan
2 Flying Rapunzel
3 Slammy Boy
4 0
5 0
6 Helloagainmyfriend
7 0
8 Delightful Daisy
9 Age of Aquarius
10 Spring Formal
After a couple of days, I almost feel like throwing darts might be a better option with racing............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 17th, 2013 at 6:25:18 PM
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I looked a look at Entries page at the tracks website. Wow, these horses are the bottom rung of the circuit. Race 6 for example. Claiming race 7,500 . Means all these horses are for sale and can be had for measly 7500. Its a way for the track to make sure a good horse isn't in there, that its a fair race for crummy horses. Any owner or trainer that enters their horse in this race runs the risk of losing that horse. Any other trainer can make a claim, pay 7500, and now the horse has a new owner. These are slow cheap horses. Everyone of these horses in this race have never won more then 1 race in their lifetimes. You constantly race against cheap horses and only 1 lifetime win. Tough to predict a winner among a bunch of losers.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
May 18th, 2013 at 10:40:03 AM
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"Tough to predict a winner among a bunch of losers."
I don't know. I guess that I would have to defer to your much better knowledge. However, my feeling has been that even amongst a bunch of losers, there is a better than the bunch horse.......at least that's what I have thought.
I don't know. I guess that I would have to defer to your much better knowledge. However, my feeling has been that even amongst a bunch of losers, there is a better than the bunch horse.......at least that's what I have thought.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 18th, 2013 at 12:44:15 PM
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I think tough to predict a winner is a good thing. If anything can happen, then you can make money. The problem is that there is often a horse who is dropping that is better on paper. In the 6th it's the 2. Of course, he hasn't raced in a looooong time.
So, look for a price - my pick for that.... Let's pick the 7.
So, look for a price - my pick for that.... Let's pick the 7.
May 18th, 2013 at 1:01:26 PM
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How are you picking your horses? When I go to the track, I look at the last 3 races of each horse and average out the speed figures for last 3 races just doing quick general math in my head and writing down the figure, If any horse had an unusual slow time or 2, I throw that out and go 4th and fifth last race. After assigning those numbers, I take what I consider the 3 fastest horses and look at the odds and pick one of the 3 depending on odds. If for example I have horse red , blue, green and have assigned average speed rating of respectively 87 86 80. Clearly Red is best but barely better then blue. Say the odds on Red are 2-1 and Blue 5-1 and Green 6-1. I would bet on Blue to make a win place show bet. Blue is almost as good as Red but much better odds and better bet. This system wont make you money but its a good system to make a good bet and have fun and quickly handicap a race.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
May 18th, 2013 at 1:08:06 PM
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I'm gonna be showing a revision for tomorrow's picks. I am looking at 2 additional new formulae. If I used it today then in the 6th, there would be a second pick of #10, C.C. Banjo.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 18th, 2013 at 1:54:23 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleI think tough to predict a winner is a good thing. If anything can happen, then you can make money. The problem is that there is often a horse who is dropping that is better on paper. In the 6th it's the 2. Of course, he hasn't raced in a looooong time.
So, look for a price - my pick for that.... Let's pick the 7.
And, that's how you do it. $50 winner for y'all.
May 18th, 2013 at 4:29:43 PM
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FinsRule- Very Nice Pick!
Congrats!
Congrats!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 18th, 2013 at 4:31:48 PM
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A simple axiom.....the mission of horse racing is to disappoint the most people in the shortest amount of time. When Lucas won with a bomb in the race leading up to Preakness, the sharpies jumped on Oxbow and Will Take Charge. I'm afraid Buzzard lost his show bet on Orb, but may have won the -240 against Orb to win TC
Each day is better than the next
May 18th, 2013 at 4:32:45 PM
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So after going 0 for everything once again...it's time to change it up. I'm not yet giving up on the orginal formula that I use. However, I am adding picks by 2 other formulae and will start keeping track of the totals. Each bet will be for an imaginary $10. Always to Win.
05/19/13 Arlington Picks:
Race # Original
1 Vision of Liz
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 Atlantic Tap
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ming Glo
8 0
9 Blissful Gold
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
05/19/13 Arlington Picks:
Race # Original
1 Vision of Liz
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 Atlantic Tap
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ming Glo
8 0
9 Blissful Gold
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2013 at 10:31:34 AM
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Since there were some scratches this morning, the below is a revised list of picks for today:
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 St. Louis City
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ravin About Riv
8 0
9 Roaringoodmartini
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish
2 Annette's Guy
3 0
4 Rock On Richie
5 Iolanda's Perfect
6 0
7 Cool Pren
8 St. Louis City
9 0
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run
2 Northscape
3 Richie's Lifestyle
4 Delago
5 Ravin About Richie
6 Hausen
7 Ravin About Riv
8 0
9 Roaringoodmartini
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 Remembermealways
9 0
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2013 at 11:35:55 AM
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Finally! Northscape in the 2nd. provides me with my first winner.......unfortunately, it only paid $2.80.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2013 at 12:06:43 PM
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The goods news is that with Richie's Lifestyle winning in the 3rd. is now my 2nd. win in a row. The bad news is that I'm still down for the day.....WTF, win 2 out of 3 races and still down?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 19th, 2013 at 3:56:25 PM
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Damn....this is tuff!
Today's results:
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish -$10.00 2nd.
2 Annette's Guy -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Rock On Richie -$10.00 2nd.
5 Iolanda's Perfect -$10.00 5th.
6 0 $0.00
7 Cool Pren -$10.00 6th.
8 St. Louis City -$10.00 3rd.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$60.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run -$10.00 4th.
2 Northscape $4.00 1st.
3 Richie's Lifestyle $11.00 1st.
4 Delago -$10.00 3rd.
5 Ravin About Richie -$10.00 3rd.
6 Hausen -$10.00 Projected to hit the finish line sometime next year
7 Ravin About Riv -$10.00 8th.
8 0 $0.00
9 Roaringoodmartini -$10.00 4th.
10
-$45.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 Remembermealways -$10.00 6th.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$10.00
Grand Total -$115.00
Today's results:
Arlington Park for 05/19/13
Race # Original
1 At the Finish -$10.00 2nd.
2 Annette's Guy -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Rock On Richie -$10.00 2nd.
5 Iolanda's Perfect -$10.00 5th.
6 0 $0.00
7 Cool Pren -$10.00 6th.
8 St. Louis City -$10.00 3rd.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$60.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Shes Got to Run -$10.00 4th.
2 Northscape $4.00 1st.
3 Richie's Lifestyle $11.00 1st.
4 Delago -$10.00 3rd.
5 Ravin About Richie -$10.00 3rd.
6 Hausen -$10.00 Projected to hit the finish line sometime next year
7 Ravin About Riv -$10.00 8th.
8 0 $0.00
9 Roaringoodmartini -$10.00 4th.
10
-$45.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 0 $0.00
4 0 $0.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 Remembermealways -$10.00 6th.
9 0 $0.00
10
-$10.00
Grand Total -$115.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 20th, 2013 at 2:07:11 PM
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Any horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 22nd, 2013 at 10:13:34 AM
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Picks for 05/22/13 at Arlington Park:
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Masquerade Fashion
3 Onedayatatyme
4 Sir Applesolutely
5 0
6 0
7 Uno Pecador
8 Tripping
9 Queen of Heat
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco
2 Distant Mesa
3 0
4 Come On Man
5 Moshaagib
6 Rich Chocolate
7 0
8 Miss Livingston
9 Real Dee
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 Eastern Precipice
4 Outlaw Zen
5 0
6 0
7 Mish Mosh
8 0
9 Autumn Splendor
10
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0
2 Masquerade Fashion
3 Onedayatatyme
4 Sir Applesolutely
5 0
6 0
7 Uno Pecador
8 Tripping
9 Queen of Heat
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco
2 Distant Mesa
3 0
4 Come On Man
5 Moshaagib
6 Rich Chocolate
7 0
8 Miss Livingston
9 Real Dee
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 Eastern Precipice
4 Outlaw Zen
5 0
6 0
7 Mish Mosh
8 0
9 Autumn Splendor
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 22nd, 2013 at 3:33:00 PM
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Below are today's results. The original formula plain old sucks. Not a single winner so far.
The 1st. Alternate formula is not much better.
The 2nd. Alternate formula is showing a bit of promise. Thru 3 race days, there have been 8 picks and 3 of them were winners.
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Masquerade Fashion -$10.00 6th.
3 Onedayatatyme -$10.00 4th
4 Sir Applesolutely $23.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Uno Pecador -$10.00 5th
8 Tripping -$10.00 6th.
9 Queen of Heat -$10.00 5th
10
-$27.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco -$10.00 2nd.
2 Distant Mesa -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Come On Man -$10.00 5th
5 Moshaagib -$10.00 2nd.
6 Rich Chocolate -$10.00 7th
7 0 $0.00
8 Miss Livingston -$10.00 3rd
9 Real Dee -$10.00 3rd
10
-$70.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Eastern Precipice $30.00 1st
4 Outlaw Zen -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Mish Mosh $9.00 1st
8 0 $0.00
9 Autumn Splendor -$10.00 4th
10
$19.00
Grand Total -$78.00
The 1st. Alternate formula is not much better.
The 2nd. Alternate formula is showing a bit of promise. Thru 3 race days, there have been 8 picks and 3 of them were winners.
Arlington Park for 05/22/13
Race # Original
1 0 $0.00
2 Masquerade Fashion -$10.00 6th.
3 Onedayatatyme -$10.00 4th
4 Sir Applesolutely $23.00 1st
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Uno Pecador -$10.00 5th
8 Tripping -$10.00 6th.
9 Queen of Heat -$10.00 5th
10
-$27.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Cinco Y Cinco -$10.00 2nd.
2 Distant Mesa -$10.00 2nd.
3 0 $0.00
4 Come On Man -$10.00 5th
5 Moshaagib -$10.00 2nd.
6 Rich Chocolate -$10.00 7th
7 0 $0.00
8 Miss Livingston -$10.00 3rd
9 Real Dee -$10.00 3rd
10
-$70.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0 $0.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Eastern Precipice $30.00 1st
4 Outlaw Zen -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Mish Mosh $9.00 1st
8 0 $0.00
9 Autumn Splendor -$10.00 4th
10
$19.00
Grand Total -$78.00
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 9:17:16 AM
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As a reminder, the 2nd. alternate formula has performed the best so far by picking 3 winners out of 8 races.
Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/24/13
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing
2 Ballyjamesduff
3 Emile
4 Doug Junior
5 Lisa's Mad Again
6 You Dancing Demon
7 Chantilly Outlaw
8 You Bought Her
9 Fastestwhogetspaid
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten
2 Control Tower
3 0
4 Coalport
5 Eileen Evelyn
6 Awesome Attack
7 There's No Telling
8 Barisoff
9 Mec Dancer
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka
2 0
3 Plunder
4 Striking Hight
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Triple Check
10
Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/24/13
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing
2 Ballyjamesduff
3 Emile
4 Doug Junior
5 Lisa's Mad Again
6 You Dancing Demon
7 Chantilly Outlaw
8 You Bought Her
9 Fastestwhogetspaid
10
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten
2 Control Tower
3 0
4 Coalport
5 Eileen Evelyn
6 Awesome Attack
7 There's No Telling
8 Barisoff
9 Mec Dancer
10
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka
2 0
3 Plunder
4 Striking Hight
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Triple Check
10
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 10:46:23 AM
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Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
Your question cuts at the heart of why this is so hard. If a horse runs well in the spring of 2012, and has a big layoff, and when he comes back, can't replicate prior form, will he ever be able to? Usually not, but if he does, you'll get paid a lot if you're on him.
They are animals, and you don't have enough information to know what is going to happen. That's why it's hard. And the randomness is why I believe that the only way you can make money is betting on longer shots. Of course, I barely ever listen to my own advice.
I'll be at AP today for the late double, and the whole day tomorrow for their 3rd best day of racing of the year. Maybe I'll post some picks if I have time.
May 24th, 2013 at 11:52:55 AM
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FinsRule,
Thanks. I appreciate the input. Good Luck!
Thanks. I appreciate the input. Good Luck!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 12:09:54 PM
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Race 8 - $2 DD - 1, 8 / 9, 11
Race 9 - $2 Exacta Box - 2, 9, 11
(If I hit the first leg of double - Change to: $2 Exacta - 2, 13 / 2, 9, 11, 13)
Race 9 - $2 Exacta Box - 2, 9, 11
(If I hit the first leg of double - Change to: $2 Exacta - 2, 13 / 2, 9, 11, 13)
May 24th, 2013 at 1:47:03 PM
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Nice. The 2n.d Alternate formula's pick of Mirka in the 1st. hits. It has now picked 4 winners out of 9 races.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 2:51:13 PM
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Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
I allways look at the horses last 3 races period. If the horse is coming from a long layoff, I still just look at last 3 races. Now if one of those races have a very unusual finish times such as not finished or Jockey pulled up horse so extremely slow time, I throw those out and go to 4th last and even 5th last race.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
May 24th, 2013 at 3:21:30 PM
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Quote: steeldcoAny horse players out there that can answer a question for me? Or give me an opinion?
I had discarded any data on a horse that is more than a year old, believing that it wouldn't be a reasonable indicator of the horse's ability currently. Does that make sense, or can I use older data? If so, how old?
Races that were run over a year ago are for the most part meaningless. Recency plays a big role in handicapping. It's all about the form cycle. Most horses can hold top form for two maybe three races. Exceptional horses can hold their form longer. Races that were run over a year ago, have handicapping value if horse had a big break in training.....6-9 months or more. Coming back off injury.
Each day is better than the next
May 24th, 2013 at 5:50:47 PM
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treetopbuddy,thanks. I appreciate the help.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 5:55:30 PM
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Today's Results:
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing -$10.00
2 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00
3 Emile $23.00
4 Doug Junior -$10.00
5 Lisa's Mad Again -$10.00
6 You Dancing Demon -$10.00
7 Chantilly Outlaw -$10.00
8 You Bought Her -$10.00
9 Fastestwhogetspaid $0.00
10
-$47.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten -$10.00
2 Control Tower $15.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Coalport $3.00
5 Eileen Evelyn -$10.00
6 Awesome Attack -$10.00
7 There's No Telling -$10.00
8 Barisoff -$10.00
9 Mec Dancer -$10.00
10
-$42.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka $19.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Plunder -$10.00
4 Striking Hight -$10.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Triple Check -$10.00
10
-$11.00
Grand Total -$100.00
Year to Date:
Original
5/15/2013 -80.00
5/17/2013 -30.00 -110.00
5/18/2013 -60.00 -170.00
5/19/2013 -60.00 -230.00
5/22/2013 -27.00 -257.00
5/24/2013 -47.00 -304.00
1st. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $38.00
5/19/2013 -$45.00 -$7.00
5/22/2013 -$70.00 -$77.00
5/24/2013 -$42.00 -$119.00
2nd. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $32.40 1 of 3
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $22.40 0 of 1
5/22/2013 $19.00 $41.40 2 of 4
5/24/2013 -$11.00 $30.40 1 of 4
Here's what I find interesting. If I use the 2nd. Alternate and stop after the 1st. win of the day then my results look like the below. Again, based upon a $10 wager to win. Looking even more promising......
2nd. Alternate-stop at 1st. Win
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $42.40
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $32.40
5/22/2013 $30.00 $62.40
5/24/2013 $19.00 $81.40
Is it possible that I'm on to something here.............
Race # Original
1 Pranksterbdancing -$10.00
2 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00
3 Emile $23.00
4 Doug Junior -$10.00
5 Lisa's Mad Again -$10.00
6 You Dancing Demon -$10.00
7 Chantilly Outlaw -$10.00
8 You Bought Her -$10.00
9 Fastestwhogetspaid $0.00
10
-$47.00
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Miss Kitten -$10.00
2 Control Tower $15.00
3 0 $0.00
4 Coalport $3.00
5 Eileen Evelyn -$10.00
6 Awesome Attack -$10.00
7 There's No Telling -$10.00
8 Barisoff -$10.00
9 Mec Dancer -$10.00
10
-$42.00
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 Mirka $19.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Plunder -$10.00
4 Striking Hight -$10.00
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Triple Check -$10.00
10
-$11.00
Grand Total -$100.00
Year to Date:
Original
5/15/2013 -80.00
5/17/2013 -30.00 -110.00
5/18/2013 -60.00 -170.00
5/19/2013 -60.00 -230.00
5/22/2013 -27.00 -257.00
5/24/2013 -47.00 -304.00
1st. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $38.00
5/19/2013 -$45.00 -$7.00
5/22/2013 -$70.00 -$77.00
5/24/2013 -$42.00 -$119.00
2nd. Alternate
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $32.40 1 of 3
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $22.40 0 of 1
5/22/2013 $19.00 $41.40 2 of 4
5/24/2013 -$11.00 $30.40 1 of 4
Here's what I find interesting. If I use the 2nd. Alternate and stop after the 1st. win of the day then my results look like the below. Again, based upon a $10 wager to win. Looking even more promising......
2nd. Alternate-stop at 1st. Win
5/15/2013
5/17/2013
5/18/2013 $42.40
5/19/2013 -$10.00 $32.40
5/22/2013 $30.00 $62.40
5/24/2013 $19.00 $81.40
Is it possible that I'm on to something here.............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 6:08:22 PM
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I am curious to what your "formula" is.
The reason I love the horses is because it is so hard to win. It makes me think, and that relaxes me. I have no formula so to speak, but I do know the deeper I look at the form, the worse I do, LOL. If I look at the form for a minute or two and go with my first choice, it usually does better than me stewing over the for for 10 mins looking at everything.
The reason I love the horses is because it is so hard to win. It makes me think, and that relaxes me. I have no formula so to speak, but I do know the deeper I look at the form, the worse I do, LOL. If I look at the form for a minute or two and go with my first choice, it usually does better than me stewing over the for for 10 mins looking at everything.
May 24th, 2013 at 6:18:02 PM
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jw17, sorry but I won't share it. All I can tell you is that I know nothing about the horses. I have just mined the data available and try to massage the components until I found something that seemed to work. Will it continue? I have no idea....time will tell. I'm excited over what I see so far......but then again, I'm easily exicted................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 6:20:21 PM
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I was curious what your formula is also. You don't have to be exact but I was wondering what factors you are heavily considering. There is a lot to consider. Speed figures. Consistency. Jockey record. Trainer record. Moving up or down in class. Early speed. Late speed. starting position. Breeding. Taking Lasix drug. Money won in career. Weight. Grass or turf or artificial surface and how the do on each surface. Length. weather ect
What makes things tough is track is always trying to even things out. Say there are 10 horses in a race. Track thinks 5 are much better the other 5, The better 5 will have weights added to even things out. Also its hard to judge horses when they make changes on what type of races to enter. A traditionally turf horse now running on dirt. A horse that generally runs long mile races now in a 8 furlong race. A 8 furlonger racer now in a short 6 furlong speed race. Maiden races are tough, horses looking for their 1st win ever and have little or no race history.
What makes things tough is track is always trying to even things out. Say there are 10 horses in a race. Track thinks 5 are much better the other 5, The better 5 will have weights added to even things out. Also its hard to judge horses when they make changes on what type of races to enter. A traditionally turf horse now running on dirt. A horse that generally runs long mile races now in a 8 furlong race. A 8 furlonger racer now in a short 6 furlong speed race. Maiden races are tough, horses looking for their 1st win ever and have little or no race history.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
May 24th, 2013 at 6:24:29 PM
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I can tell you this, I factor nothing in for jockey, trainer, breeding, lasix, or money won. The others that you mentioned are components.
Insofar as what is not factored in, it was because I'm not sure of their value, or how to assign a value. Not yet anyway. I'm going let the current formula play itself out a bit and see if it needs changing.
Insofar as what is not factored in, it was because I'm not sure of their value, or how to assign a value. Not yet anyway. I'm going let the current formula play itself out a bit and see if it needs changing.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 6:34:07 PM
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Quote: steeldcojw17, sorry but I won't share it. All I can tell you is that I know nothing about the horses. I have just mined the data available and try to massage the components until I found something that seemed to work. Will it continue? I have no idea....time will tell. I'm excited over what I see so far......but then again, I'm easily exicted................
Fair enough, I was just curious. Maybe one day you will share. I was curious not to steal your formula, but if you ask 10 horse players how they pick thier horse, they will give you 10 different formula's
May 24th, 2013 at 7:44:43 PM
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I appreciate the understanding. It's probably worthless anyway.............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 24th, 2013 at 8:02:20 PM
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Hey winners are winners no matter how you get there
May 25th, 2013 at 8:26:31 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 05/25/13
Race # Original
1 La Pinata
2 0
3 Frontier Days
4 0
5 Peso
6 0
7 Imposing Grace
8 Commando Kat
9 Hattaash
10 Brown Almighty
11 Abby's Slew
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Little Kinkaid
2 Misty Castle
3 Bin Elusive
4 Mindy Can Dance
5 Piratesinparadise
6 Sugar Spun
7 Lotta Lovin
8 Double Silver
9 Seruni
10 Fordubai
11 Mission Storm
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 Breaking Ball
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 All Stormy
10 0
11 Coaming
Arlington Park for 05/25/13
Race # Original
1 La Pinata
2 0
3 Frontier Days
4 0
5 Peso
6 0
7 Imposing Grace
8 Commando Kat
9 Hattaash
10 Brown Almighty
11 Abby's Slew
Race # 1st. Alternate:
1 Little Kinkaid
2 Misty Castle
3 Bin Elusive
4 Mindy Can Dance
5 Piratesinparadise
6 Sugar Spun
7 Lotta Lovin
8 Double Silver
9 Seruni
10 Fordubai
11 Mission Storm
Race # 2nd. Alternate:
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 Breaking Ball
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 All Stormy
10 0
11 Coaming
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 8:35:13 AM
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BTW, the original formula has been tweaked a bit as of this morning. We'll see improvement the next couple of days or I'll be dropping it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 25th, 2013 at 8:46:15 AM
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You might want to bet on races with higher purses then claiming races. Higher purses would be Stakes races and allowance races. Any stakes race, jockeys, owners, trainers really prepare the horse well for the race due to the amount of money that can be won. I am always a bit suspicious of cheap claiming races. How much preparation and trainer attention does a claimer get, probably not much because owner and trainer always run the risk of losing that horse every race if another trainer decides to put in a claim.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
