AndyGB
AndyGB
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:03:26 AM permalink
Hey there. I am hoping to spend more time at the horse races this season, where I can lose $10 every half hour, instead of every half minute at the craps table. (Though the track is near the casino, so I may do both...). Anyway, I'm looking for some general beginner information on how to pick better horses. I have a basic understanding of the wagers available, and wagering using the touch screen terminals takes the stress out of getting the bets right. However, a lot of what I've read online about handicapping seems to assume skills I don't have (yet?) such as "finding value vs the morning lines" and the like.

Are there any elements of picking winners that can be taught, or will I have to put in 10 more years at the track before I get enough experience? Currently my process is something like "Look at the starting odds in the program. Look at the win record of the jockey and try to find a jockey who wins a lot, who is on a horse that is not too much of a longshot. Pick that horse to win. Then pick two more horses that have good starting odds and put them in a cheap box exacta. Then watch the horses be paraded around (this is probably not the correct term) and eliminate any horses that seem too skittish, re-picking as needed, then go and make bets. Watch as all my picks are carted to the glue factory for finishing too slow. Rip up ticket."

And it's pretty fun, even as above; I'd just love to now and then pick a winner and would greatly appreciate any and all advice. I'd also like a huge pick-X payday, but that might be a lesson for another time. As a side note, when making your bets at a window with a human, do you generally tip?
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 10:46:58 AM permalink
For me, betting on horses is much more enjoyable than casino games. Just observe the two venues and it's clear who's having more fun. Live racing is much more enjoyable than OTB.

You can't put horse racing in a box. Systems don't work....the nature of pari-mutuel wagering makes system play worthless.

To ferret out winners or "live" horses you have to put your "cheating hat" on.....you have to get inside the Owner/Trainer/Jockeys collective heads. Connections have been known to spend a year setting up a horse for the right race. Reading between the racing lines takes a lot of experience. Live horses sometimes can be seen in exacta pools.....if you know what to look for...

Just have fun with it......stay away from 10-1 horses and up......the strike rate on those horses is not remotely commensurate to payoffs. Avoid boxing horses as your wasting money. Take a stand on one horse and go with it......the best bets can be found in the place pool.

Always tip mutual clerk, good Karma.

Good Luck!
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 24th, 2013 at 11:43:44 AM permalink
I could write about this for hours. I love horse racing, especially live racing. It's a challenging and relaxing way to spend an afternoon.

Unfortunately, there is not really any advice on picking better horses. Because it's pari-mutuel, the good news is that there really aren't too many bad bets. As you alluded to, the more you watch races, the better you'll get at it. I've known how to read the form for 15 years, but only in the last 3-4 when I've really started to watch a ton of racing, am I starting to feel like I'm learning and getting better.

I have found more success when I can identify vulnerable favorites, and put 2-3 others in a DD, Pick-3, etc. At Hawthorne on Saturday I hit a $130 Pick-3 with an 11-1, 6-5, 9-5. Not a huge, life changing win, but a success nonetheless. And all it involved was 1 favorite in 3 races losing that I identified.

Sorry I can't give you more of a system. It really depends on what your goal is. My goal is different almost every day. Some days I'm betting $5 WPS to just have some fun, and break even. Some days I'm doing 3-horse $2 exacta boxes and daily doubles, going for $100 or more. Other days I'm doing Pick-4s, Pick-6s, trying to get a ton. But as treetop said, it's cheaper/more profitable to take a stand.

I like your idea of going to the paddock and seeing the horses. If you have a talent for it, it can definitely help. I don't, but whenever I see a horse acting up in the paddock, on the way to the gate, or at the gate, I will cancel all my tickets on it. It's helped me more than it has hurt me.

When I'm at Arlington, I usually wager around $10 per race. We'll say I lose around takeout, which is 20%. $2 per race times 8 races = $16 expected loss.

If I'm at the casino for four hours, my expected loss is much higher.

As for tipping, I generally don't except for my change or a single if I win like $101. I worked at a track, and I know how much they make. If there were any employee that doesn't need/deserve tips, it's a mutuel teller. I really hope I'm not going to start a fight with this.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:01:56 PM permalink
Okay... I want y'all to imagine "the average horse race".
The starting gate opens and its not really a race for the finish line, its more a race for the rail and then the finish line.
Times are published from Race Start to Finish Line but many horses have hugged the rail while others have come out on the outside.

So for an average race... if a horse comes up on the outside but is not amongst the top three....what greater distance did he run than the winner who hugged the rail for virtually the entire race?

What I'm trying to determine is: would it make any difference to determine actual speed of the horse versus official speed which measures a greater distance?
nezbit
nezbit
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:12:11 PM permalink
honestly been to horse races once it was a blast. I stuck with a fairly basic strategy, I look at the favorites of the upcoming race then i would buy multiple trifectas
(win place show) I would spend around $30 a race and buy $1 tickets of as many combos of horse i thought would win the trifecta. it was all luck of course and I Think of the 8 races that day at the track i won 3 tricfectas and ended up a couple hundred bucks.

I think i won one where they was a strong strong favorite so he was in almost 90% my one and 2 spots, think i shelled out $30 for that race and when i wont it only paid like $80 because of the favorite. Another paid $270 because I picked like a 2 4 6 (odds) and got lucky.

i was such a noob i just walked up the the guy taking bets told him i wanted trifectas he was like ok what horses and what spots? at first it took forever, by the middle end i would walk up, he knew what i was going to do and just start punching them in like so
horse 2 horse 4 horse 6, horse 2 horse 6 horse 4, horse 6 horse 2 horse 4, by end i just said 374 274 473 274 271...ect, was fun and funny at the same time was it was first experience.

Cant wait to go back, been 5 years now since i went.

I had fun. Not sure if its beatable long run, but i enjoyed wagering with friends, drinking beers, ect...

GOOD LUCK
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:26:03 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Okay... I want y'all to imagine "the average horse race".
The starting gate opens and its not really a race for the finish line, its more a race for the rail and then the finish line.
Times are published from Race Start to Finish Line but many horses have hugged the rail while others have come out on the outside.

So for an average race... if a horse comes up on the outside but is not amongst the top three....what greater distance did he run than the winner who hugged the rail for virtually the entire race?

What I'm trying to determine is: would it make any difference to determine actual speed of the horse versus official speed which measures a greater distance?



The clock doesn't officially start when the gate opens. It starts at the "run up distance" which is typically 5 to 10 feet in front of gate depending on track. Designed to balance poor starts for horses to some degree.

At Keeneland as well as a few other tracks, a "differential distance ran" is displayed. The winning horse sets the distance. Plus or minus values are given to the rest of the field. In two turn races (longer) the difference can be 100 ft or more between rail horses and wide running horses. Sometimes the "going" is better on the outside of the track hence horses that may have run wide throughout, can still win. Tracks can and do have biases that change from day to day or even early races to later races.
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:48:03 PM permalink
correction.....the differential distances are derived from the horse with the shortest trip (rail trip)........+10, +25, +50....etc. I've seen horses with +100 feet or more win....
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:55:41 PM permalink
correction to my correction......values are derived from a baseline "rail trip"....a known distance. Every horse will get a + number of feet ran. GPS in saddles. I'll get it right. It's been awhile......
Each day is better than the next
pdxmeadows
pdxmeadows
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April 24th, 2013 at 1:07:16 PM permalink
Andy- I have been going to the races all my life. My Dad loved the track, and worked for a time as a waiter at Del Mar. I am no expert, but can give some pointers. First, you'll want to learn to read the Daily Racing form. They are sold at your local track or can be accessed online (for a fee). They are complicated and even though I have been studying them for many years, there are things I still don't understand. Our local track's website, Portland Meadows, has a beginners guide on how to read the form, and it is quite informative. Your track might have the same.

The thing that is fascinating (and sometimes frustrating) about horse racing, is that there are so many variables to consider. There's the horse, jockey, weight the horse is carrying, trainer, track, distance, track condition, level of competition, past performances, etc. The racing form has all of this information, and more. It’s up to you as to how much information you want to pay attention to.

I find that the bigger the race (i.e. purse), the more the horses race true to form. Not always the case, but generally true. And favorites do tend to win the most, but it's not always fun to bet the favorite, just like it's fun to root for the under dog some times. If you hang at your local track enough, you will develop your your own favorite jockeys, horses, trainers, etc. It's totally up to you, and everyone has there own opinion/ system.

Personally, I like to look for horses that are dropping in class (racing for a lesser purse against weaker competition), or has had one race after a long layoff after showing good form prior (usually due to injury). I also like to bet straight exatas (no box) with big favorites on top and the longest shots in the field on the bottome (2nd). These will only cost you $1 at most tracks, and you get the overwhelming favorite and a longshot and win a few dollars too. At smaller tracks, like Portland, I look for horses that have raced in bigger venues, such as Santa Anita or Golden Gate, and bet them, as their competition is usually better and they are often dropping in class. They will often be the favorite, but not always. Regardless, I find racing to be more relaxing and cerebral than casino gambling and quite enjoyable.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 24th, 2013 at 1:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

correction to my correction......values are derived from a baseline "rail trip"....a known distance. Every horse will get a + number of feet ran. GPS in saddles. I'll get it right. It's been awhile......



Lol, you got it. The Trakus system.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 1:43:22 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Lol, you got it. The Trakus system.



Yes, Trakus....thanks.
Each day is better than the next
ddloml
ddloml
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April 24th, 2013 at 2:22:03 PM permalink
I'm going to key off of 'rookie level' in your title. It's been years since I've been to the horse races, but one piece of advice always stuck with me. "Bet the favorite to Show in every race." You won't win much, but you won't lose much either. It's kind of boring, but it works.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 24th, 2013 at 2:41:51 PM permalink
Quote: ddloml

I'm going to key off of 'rookie level' in your title. It's been years since I've been to the horse races, but one piece of advice always stuck with me. "Bet the favorite to Show in every race." You won't win much, but you won't lose much either. It's kind of boring, but it works.



Didn't know my dad was on the board, lol.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 24th, 2013 at 2:43:45 PM permalink
But seriously, if that strategy makes it enjoyable, go for it.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 2:51:18 PM permalink
Quote: ddloml

I'm going to key off of 'rookie level' in your title. It's been years since I've been to the horse races, but one piece of advice always stuck with me. "Bet the favorite to Show in every race." You won't win much, but you won't lose much either. It's kind of boring, but it works.



Try a .10 Superfecta....box 5 horses for 2.40 cents per race.......your out 20 buarachne the race card if you don't hit but have some real upside if you hit
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 2:53:24 PM permalink
iPhone to small.....your out 20 for entire card
Each day is better than the next
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 24th, 2013 at 4:56:17 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

iPhone to small.....your out 20 for entire card



Boxing 5 horses is $12 per race, no?
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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April 24th, 2013 at 5:32:32 PM permalink
4 horses 2.40, 5 horses 12...yup.......
Each day is better than the next
terapined
terapined
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April 24th, 2013 at 5:54:39 PM permalink
I love betting on the horses. Its a lot of fun. I live in Florida but used to live in Maryland. Besides betting on horses, I also loved betting on pacers and trotters. In Maryland, thourobreds run in the day and trotters and pacers run at night so on a night out to the track, bet on a lot of trotters and pacers. Its a blast. One of funnest forms of gambling. Only go for fun, the rake is generally too big to overcome to really make money. Usually the rake around 25 per cent. If betting on horses, best info out there is Beyer speed figures. Andy Beyer is a legend among horse bettors. His big thing is trip handicapping. Say a horse in its last race had a bad trip, being blocked from making a move, going wide on the turns, boxed in ect. Often a horse will run well but due to a bad trip, loses. Those horses often have great odds due to losing badly last race but if the poor race was due to a bad trip, Beyer bets that horse heavily. Beyer is always looking for good horses with bad trips and bets them on their next race.
The Beyer speed figures are a great tool, he factors in a lot of variables, fast track or sloppy, dirt, grass, synthetic, length of race ect. If one horse generally runs 6 furlong races and another runs 8 furlong races, its tough to compare times of 2 horses running different distances, That's where the Beyer speed figures comes in.
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