WoV Picks Game/Bet

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November 7th, 2012 at 4:45:13 PM permalink

I'm sorry about that.

You're right that I usually do it on Tuesday, but it was Election Day. I can probably go ahead and do it now, but originally, I was just going to wait until 23:30 and then post the Lines for next week immediately after.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

ten2win

ten2win

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November 7th, 2012 at 5:47:52 PM permalink

Thanks!

I don't know everything but I know a lot.

Mission146

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November 7th, 2012 at 6:46:31 PM permalink

No problem, starting now, Comcast outage in the area for Internet.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 7th, 2012 at 7:37:37 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 9 Results Have (Finally) Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post195268

This was an excellent Week for the group as a whole going 46-30 (.605), not including me and bringing the group from 365-333 for .523 to 411-363 for .531. If I am included, then my 3-2 Record for the Week put me up to 25-19 for .568. The group, including my record, would improve to 436-382 for .533 and I would be in third place amongst those not eliminated.

It's still a two-man race with Wizard and Vendman1 the only Players above .600 (and both significantly so) but given that it is only Week 10, there is still plenty of time for everyone to catch up.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 8th, 2012 at 4:07:54 PM permalink

The Week 10 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post195467

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

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November 8th, 2012 at 4:24:08 PM permalink

Please do not select anyone from tonight's game after the game is over.....

Mission146

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November 8th, 2012 at 4:59:39 PM permalink

I deleted it, sorry about that. I think I usually post the Lines after the game is already in progress for Thursday night. The Colts laying the points would have been one of my lines, too, but it's void.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 10th, 2012 at 9:19:13 PM permalink

The Week 10 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post195900

I pick against the Seahawks beating the spread again, have I learned nothing?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

steeldco

steeldco

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November 12th, 2012 at 9:35:41 AM permalink

Why in God's name I would pick the Detroit Lions is beyond me. I believe that they have the worst coaching in the league and yet......I pick them anyway.
I need to get on some meds......or something

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

Mission146

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November 12th, 2012 at 9:46:49 AM permalink

I went 2-3 this week, although yesterday I thought it was 3-2. For some reason, I thought that I had laid Baltimore instead of Detroit, but I guess not. I know that I was on the fence and was going to pick one of those two games, except, I forgot which one I actually did pick.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

MakingBook

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November 12th, 2012 at 10:00:40 AM permalink

EVERYONE forget to make their picks for a couple weeks, and I have a chance to win this thing.

Otherwise, I'm just waiting to find out where to send the $5.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Ayecarumba

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November 12th, 2012 at 10:56:15 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Why in God's name I would pick the Detroit Lions is beyond me. I believe that they have the worst coaching in the league and yet......I pick them anyway.
I need to get on some meds......or something

The spread makes all teams appealing. I bit on San Diego this week. I feel like the dumbest bass in the pond. Fortunately, it is catch and release.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

bigpete88

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November 12th, 2012 at 11:03:31 AM permalink

I picked Detroit for a confidence pick. Ouch. I will be asking Buzz to send me picks if I keep going 3-3 or 2-4. Hate those weeks.

Buzzard

Buzzard

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November 12th, 2012 at 11:13:57 AM permalink

Hey, I have benched me for the season. Much to the delight of others. LOL

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Ayecarumba

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November 12th, 2012 at 11:59:38 AM permalink

Mission146, please confirm... there are seven more sets of picks to submit. We are not going into the playoffs, and only a tie amongst the leaders at the end of week 17 will result in the need for a superbowl pick.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

bigpete88

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November 12th, 2012 at 1:05:42 PM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
Hey, I have benched me for the season. Much to the delight of others. LOL

Part of me thinks Buzz did that as a favor to the rest of us but not 100% sure. -200 on that wager

Mission146

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November 12th, 2012 at 1:53:34 PM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Mission146, please confirm... there are seven more sets of picks to submit. We are not going into the playoffs, and only a tie amongst the leaders at the end of week 17 will result in the need for a superbowl pick.

That is 100% correct.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

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November 12th, 2012 at 2:29:01 PM permalink

Quote: MakingBook
EVERYONE forget to make their picks for a couple weeks, and I have a chance to win this thing.

Otherwise, I'm just waiting to find out where to send the $5.

As things are going you'll be sending quite a bit more than $5 the winner's way. Since the winner looks likely to exceed 60%, you will be owing $1 for every game you are behind the winner. Could be $20 if your picks suck like mine.....

Ayecarumba

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November 12th, 2012 at 3:03:09 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
As things are going you'll be sending quite a bit more than $5 the winner's way. Since the winner looks likely to exceed 60%, you will be owing $1 for every game you are behind the winner. Could be $20 if your picks suck like mine.....

With the potential to go 42-0 in the remaining 7 weeks, no one is out of it. Don't bail now!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

MakingBook

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November 12th, 2012 at 3:04:06 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
As things are going you'll be sending quite a bit more than $5 the winner's way. Since the winner looks likely to exceed 60%, you will be owing $1 for every game you are behind the winner. Could be $20 if your picks suck like mine.....

Looks like my kids won't have many gifts under the Christmas tree this year.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

bigpete88

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November 12th, 2012 at 5:18:46 PM permalink

Quote: MakingBook
Looks like my kids won't have many gifts under the Christmas tree this year.

Yeah, I was thinking about being a secret Santa this year but after going 2-7 yesterday, those thoughts are dashed.

However, I did leave $20 at a fast food place to "Pay It Forward" but not sure if the cashier stuffed the double saw buck in her pocket

Mission146

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November 13th, 2012 at 9:08:19 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 10 Results Have Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post196670

This was a pretty good week for the Group going 48-40 (.545), discluding me and improving the Group average from 411-363 for .531 to 459-403 for .532...which is ever so close to rounding up to .533, but not quite there. If I am included, then my 2-3 Record for the Week puts me at 27-22 for .551. The group, including my record, would improve to 486-425 for a solid .533.

If my presence in the game were official, this week would have dropped me from third to sixth, ouch.

I would say that it is not technically mathematically over for anyone, at this point, but we are approaching the home stretch. If nothing else, that .600 mark is at least a safety net at which an individual losing the contest would pay no more than $5.00, so that's something to shoot for.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 15th, 2012 at 6:49:52 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 11 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post197141

Bears @ 49ers O/U 27 is not a typo. The other sites have nothing on O/U for that game right now, I don't know where this line comes from, but it seems like a probable free win to me...

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 17th, 2012 at 9:33:31 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 11 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post197474

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

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November 18th, 2012 at 9:05:38 PM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
With the potential to go 42-0 in the remaining 7 weeks, no one is out of it. Don't bail now!

Thanks for the advice! Since you mentioned going 42 and 0, I started out with a 6 - 0 week.

Ayecarumba

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November 20th, 2012 at 9:00:35 AM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Thanks for the advice! Since you mentioned going 42 and 0, I started out with a 6 - 0 week.

Sweet.... Unlike the taste of the Wizard's dust... hehe

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

Mission146

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November 20th, 2012 at 7:30:41 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 11 Results Have Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post198100

This has been an absolutely crazy Week with the group going 57-30, or 61-31 if you include me. In fact, the only player with a losing record this week (2-4) was our former leader, The Wiz, who has been replaced by Vendman1. In the meantime, we have Six Weeks and Fifteen Players left, and nine players above .500, so this thing is very close to wide open again, at this point.

EdgeLooker has been lost, unfortunately, as he failed to submit his Picks and had already skipped a week.

I've already mentioned that the group rolled 57-30 (.655) for the week which improves the group from 459-403 for .532 to 516-433 for .544. Outstanding! If I am included, my 4-1 Record for Week 11 puts me to 31-23 for .574. The group, including my record, would improve to 547-456 for .545, so I don't make much of a difference.

If my presence in the game were official, I went from sixth to being tied for fifth.

It's anyone's game, once again!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

MakingBook

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November 20th, 2012 at 7:40:48 PM permalink

Wiz,

Tough beat on the Detroit game. If you had $$ on that one, I hope you found a +4 somewhere.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Mission146

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November 22nd, 2012 at 7:24:43 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 12 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post198449

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

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November 23rd, 2012 at 2:45:40 PM permalink

Just to be clear..... with vendman at 40 -19, and an eliminated player at 4 -5, if the contest was over that eliminated player would owe vendman $22?
If I have misinterpretted the rules let me and the forum know. It is my hunch that eliminated players are unaware of how much money they are on the hook
for.

ten2win

ten2win

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November 24th, 2012 at 2:10:39 PM permalink

Is the Vikings @ Bears line missing from the week 12 picks?

Not that I would have played it.

Just asking.

I don't know everything but I know a lot.

Buzzard

Buzzard

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November 24th, 2012 at 3:42:59 PM permalink

I do not like the Wiz's pick of Kansas City +10.5. That team has quit. Their season is over, but it's too early to play for next year's salaries. Look for a lot of arm tackling by KC defense. they are just going thru the motions !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

EdgeLooker

EdgeLooker

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November 24th, 2012 at 6:19:00 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
This has been an absolutely crazy Week with the group going 57-30, or 61-31 if you include me. In fact, the only player with a losing record this week (2-4) was our former leader, The Wiz, who has been replaced by Vendman1. In the meantime, we have Six Weeks and Fifteen Players left, and nine players above .500, so this thing is very close to wide open again, at this point.

With a current issue of a player taking advantage of and winning on a bad line/odds going around some forums, it made me think about this thread where the Wiz didn't take advantage of an obvious bad line, which resulted in him dropping to 2nd place. He could of went 4-2, instead of 2-4. Why didn't the Wiz take the Over 27 as his confidence pick as well?

Vendman1
CHI/SF OVER 27 (confidence pick)---TWO WINS

Wizard
DET +3.5 (Confidence Pick)---TWO LOSSES
KC +3.5---LOSS
NO -4.5---WIN
PIT +3.5---WIN
CHI +7---LOSS
Week 11 Record: 2-4

AyeCarumba
CHI/SF - Over 27 (confidence pick)---TWO WINS
Miplet
CHI/SF OVER 27 (Confidence Pick)---TWO WINS
ChickenMan
CHI/SF OVER 27 (Confidence Pick)---TWO WINS
JohnZimbo
CHI/SF OVER 27 (Confidence Pick)---TWO WINS
RStrata
CHI/SF OVER 27 CONFIDENCE PICK---TWO WINS
Mission146
CHI/SF OVER 27---WIN

STANDINGS:
Vendman1: 40-19---.678
Wizard: 37-18---.673---Skipped Week 9
MidwestAP: 32-20---.615---Skipped Week 9
AyeCarumba: 38-28---.576
MWalz9: 31-23---.574---Skipped Week 6
Miplet: 30-23---.566---Skipped Week 9
SOOPOO: 35-30---.538
BigPete88: 34-31---.523
Ten2Win: 30-29---.508---Skipped Week 10
MakingBook: 24-26---.480---Skipped Week 8
ChickenMan: 31-34---.477
StrictlyAP: 27-31---.466
Steeldco: 27-33---.450
JohnZimbo: 28-35---.444
RStrata: 28-35---.444

Buzzard

Buzzard

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November 24th, 2012 at 6:42:33 PM permalink

Hindsight is always 20-20. DUH !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Wizard
Administrator

Wizard

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November 24th, 2012 at 6:46:39 PM permalink

Quote: EdgeLooker
Why didn't the Wiz take the Over 27 as his confidence pick as well?

Dang! I never even bother looking at the over/unders. That was practially a free two points for those who did.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Mission146

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November 24th, 2012 at 8:57:48 PM permalink

Quote: SOOPOO
Just to be clear..... with vendman at 40 -19, and an eliminated player at 4 -5, if the contest was over that eliminated player would owe vendman $22?
If I have misinterpretted the rules let me and the forum know. It is my hunch that eliminated players are unaware of how much money they are on the hook
for.

Quote: Mission146
1.) If you finish with a record of .600 or lower AND are not the winner, you will pay the winner(s) $1.00 for every game you fell below .600, or $5.00, whichever is greater.

2.) If you finish with a record of .601 or better and are not the winner, you will pay the lesser of $5.00 OR $1.00 for every pick you were away from having the winner(s) winning percentage.

3.) If the winner finishes with a record of .600 or lower, every loser will pay the winner the lesser of $5.00 or $1.00 for every pick they were away from having the winner(s) winning percentage.

4.) I will not be handling any money. Everyone participating is on the honor system. I am not responsible for non-payment or under-payment. The winner(s) and loser(s) will be responsible for determining privately and amongst themselves how the transaction is to be handled. The winner(s) may post the name(s) of any loser(s) who has AGREED on a method of payment yet failed to pay the winner within sixty (60) days of said agreement being established.

5.) Just to give this thing +EV, I will be paying the winner $25 within thirty days of the SB being played. I will pay by sending a Money Order.

I suppose I could have explained this more clearly.

Basically, if the winner finishes with a record of .601+, then we are done looking at the winner's winning percentage to determine payment, at least as far as concerns players who finished below .600.

In the case of your example, SOOPOO, you have a player at 4-5, so then you ask, "How many wins would it take for him to be at .600?" In his case, given that he has five losses, it would take four more wins (8-5 for .615) to put him at .600, so he would owe $4.00. Except, it is the greater of $5.00 and the number of wins a person would need to be at $5.00, so since $4.00 is less than $5.00, this player would just owe $5.00.

More relevantly, right now JohnZimbo and RStrata are 28-35, so if this thing ended right now, you ask, "How many wins would put them at .600?" In this case, based on 35 losses, they would need 53 total wins (53-35 for .602) to be at .600 which is a wins difference of 25 or $25.00 owed.

The winner's specific winning percentage is relevant only if a particular individual finishes above .600 and loses, or if the winner finishes below .600.

In this case, the loser(s) would pay the lesser of $5.00 or $1.00 for every pick they were away from the winner's winning percentage. In effect, if only one more win would have given you the winner's winning percentage (or better) then you would only owe $1.00.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 24th, 2012 at 9:01:46 PM permalink

Quote: ten2win
Is the Vikings @ Bears line missing from the week 12 picks?

Not that I would have played it.

Just asking.

That's right, because at the time that I posted the Lines, none of the oddsmakers at www.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/odds had anything for it. If they had, then I would have used a replacement line as I did for PIT/CLE. I probably shuld have mentioned that in-thread, though.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 25th, 2012 at 6:12:29 AM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 12 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/7/#post198730

All favorites for me this week.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

bigpete88

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November 25th, 2012 at 7:05:20 PM permalink

Tenn. lost so that puts me at 3-3 for the week again. A rested fav like Tenn is suppose to win more than lose. 64% to be exact.

Buzz, send me 5 games for next week and I will not tell anyone :-). I am firing myself for being close to 50%. Need someone with more talent for NFL than I myself.

MakingBook

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November 25th, 2012 at 7:13:26 PM permalink

Hey, hold on. I was going to ask Buzz for picks. I need them more- below .500

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

bigpete88

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November 25th, 2012 at 7:21:55 PM permalink

Quote: MakingBook
Hey, hold on. I was going to ask Buzz for picks. I need them more- below .500

Let's flip a coin. You flip and be honest. I call heads. One flip with a two headed coin. Heads I win.

None of that heads I win and tails you lose stuff :-)

Mission146

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November 25th, 2012 at 8:39:45 PM permalink

The friggin' Steelers cost me $25!!!

If it makes you guys feel better, I was pretty close to having a 1-4 Week, but BAL pulled it out in overtime and SF finally decided to play as SF should and the two combined brought me to 3-2 and saved my week.

I can't believe the Steelers lost to Cleveland. Everything that I thought I knew about football and a fundamentally sound offense remaining fundamentally sound with/without its starting QB was a lie...

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

vendman1

vendman1

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November 26th, 2012 at 3:01:50 AM permalink

Mission, the thing about the Steelers is, not only were they without their starting QB, they were without 2 QB's...and their starting saftey, and a bunch of other guys. Plus they were playing a division rival on the road. If you watched the week before against BAL, they didn't look good at home, with Leftwich. After Leftwich went down I figured they were in trouble, the road in the NFL is tough. Frankly I'm surprised it was close. Only Clevelands relative ineptitude kept it so. If it makes you feel better, I had the over in that game. Thought Cleveland might score 30...but CLE starting QB got knocked out too and the bet pushed...damn.

MakingBook

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November 26th, 2012 at 4:04:20 AM permalink

Quote: bigpete88
Let's flip a coin. You flip and be honest. I call heads. One flip with a two headed coin. Heads I win.

None of that heads I win and tails you lose stuff :-)

Just flipped a quarter......TAILS.

Damn. Lost that too!

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

mwalz9

mwalz9

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November 26th, 2012 at 12:52:38 PM permalink

That's quite funny Mission, because I thought Cleveland was one of the best picks this week! I almost confidenced them, but liked San Fran just a little bit better.

Mission146

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November 27th, 2012 at 8:09:14 PM permalink

Quote: vendman1
Mission, the thing about the Steelers is, not only were they without their starting QB, they were without 2 QB's...and their starting saftey, and a bunch of other guys. Plus they were playing a division rival on the road. If you watched the week before against BAL, they didn't look good at home, with Leftwich. After Leftwich went down I figured they were in trouble, the road in the NFL is tough. Frankly I'm surprised it was close. Only Clevelands relative ineptitude kept it so. If it makes you feel better, I had the over in that game. Thought Cleveland might score 30...but CLE starting QB got knocked out too and the bet pushed...damn.

I'm sorry, just noticed this!

On my play, I was banking on a combination of the Steelers rushing attack and strong defense. The defense (especially given that PIT had 8 turnovers) clearly held up for me and gave the Browns everything they wanted, but with seventeen points still off of turnovers, the defense wasn't enough. I also didn't expect Batch to have that poor of a game, he's usually reliable enough to manage a game and not hurt the team too badly. Without the plethora of turnovers, PIT wins a low-scoring game, so overall I don't think my pick there sucked too bad...but bad enough when my other pick would have been CAR...but CAR is so damn unpredictable....

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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November 27th, 2012 at 8:26:13 PM permalink

Greetings!

The Week 12 Results have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/2/#post199115

The group had a fairly decent week at 47-37 for .560 or 50-39 for .562 if you include my Picks. Actually, I suppose that's a pretty good week, as opposed to fairly decent, but it's still a tough pill to swallow compared to the prognostication gold that was the collective WoV Week 11 Picks.

The group improves from 516-433 for .544 to 563-470 for .545, but going up is always better than down, even if only slightly up, so we'll take it. If I am included, my 3-2 Record for Week 12 puts me to 34-25 for .576 and the group goes to 597-495 for .547.

If my presence in the game were official, I went from being tied for fifth to being in sixth by -.001.

The Wiz has traded places with Vendman1 to reclaim the lead, though both of them had winning weeks. The two of them are basically seperated by only slightly more than 1/2 of a decision, though, so that's going to be interesting next week. The most wins theoretically available to anyone, including Confidence Picks, is 30, so nobody is mathematically eliminated from contention at this point.

Nine of the participants in the game were above .500 after last week, and there are still nine above .500.

My Post on Page 25 after Week 5 kind of set my unofficial goal for the group to finish at .550, or better, and we are slowly making our way there. It's going to take a few more pretty good weeks, though.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

SOOPOO

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Joined: Aug 8, 2010

November 27th, 2012 at 8:36:07 PM permalink

This is why I don't trust statistics from people you do not know. Included in these stats are two games that had ridiculous odds, not real odds, but you keep presenting the data as if we are beating 'the odds'. So if you really want to show how the group is doing against 'the odds', not the erroneous odds we used for two games, please eliminate those games from our overall tally.

Mission146