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Dalmatian
Dalmatian
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March 8th, 2022 at 11:29:21 PM permalink
So on my way home from a successful trip (+10,000$ from blackjack, sports sign up hustling, advantage slots (mostly low denom), and comp hustling) I passed through a casino with a 75$/spin Magic of Nile that had 2 reds/1 green/1 blue.



After debating for nearly 2 hours, I decided to not play it. I had approximately 14,000$ in cash (total bank 150k+), but I was too afraid to play that game bc I dont have a lot of high denom machines in my area and I was afraid playing a slight advantage at a high denomination was too risky.

How much could I have lost? I have played low denom Magic of Nile and never lost more than 50-150$ spinning denoms 75 cents through 3.00$/spin played as 4 gems total or better entry requirement (most of my games played have been with 4 gems, it's very rare to find 5 and 6 is basically a unicorn). Extrapolated to 75$/spin that's about 2500-5000$ loss worst case.

Thanks for any input.

Dalmatian
Last edited by: Dalmatian on Mar 9, 2022
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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March 9th, 2022 at 1:45:34 AM permalink
Not that you should play that game, but how much would you expect to regularly win, extrapolated to the $75/spin machine?
If you expect to lose $2.5K to $5K, would you find the upside near $18.75K-$37.5K (or $187.50-$375 on a 75 cents/spin machine) (250X JP or 500X JP)?
Dalmatian
Dalmatian
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March 9th, 2022 at 1:47:40 AM permalink
I forgot to mention that I have access to 1000$ freeplay I could use on this play
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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March 9th, 2022 at 1:52:18 AM permalink
Yeah well, with my luck $1,000 free play would go into 25 cent VP ($1.25/hand).
Dalmatian
Dalmatian
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March 9th, 2022 at 1:52:53 AM permalink
I havent kept any insightful data on my slot play. Just a general win/loss report that does not discern games played or at what state. Shame on me. In my defense, I'm a blackjack card counter mostly, I only recently discovered AP slots.

That being said, I have won approximately 1000$ from Magic of the Nile and probably played it about 40 times at low denom (0.75-3.00 a spin). That's 25$ average win per play attempt, or assuming an average denom of 2$, about 12.5× the denom. Let's round down to 10$. That means every time I play Magic of Nile at 4 gems at 75$/spin the EV is 750$. I know this is a very volatile play but passing on 750$ when your bank is six figures is a hard thing to do.

Dalmatian
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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March 9th, 2022 at 2:19:59 AM permalink
I don't know the game you speak of, but losing 60 spins in a row on a slot machine seems to be par for me. I'd go for the 800-1200 spins on a $1,000 free play to even things out and get a comparable payout without a tax form intervening. Other people who don't mind tax forms would play $1 VP ($5/spin) because the longer you play the more you lose so you'll get to the $1,000 threshold sooner on the dollar machine and you still will be likely to miss a hand pay. I don't believe other slots have a 100%+ payback rate, and VP might have 96%-99%. But with a short session, anything is possible.
teddys
teddys
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March 10th, 2022 at 11:41:56 AM permalink
I would have played it with the $1000 Freeplay. Perfect opportunity for that. I like to play MoN with three squares filled in as a freeplay churn at houses that don't allow it on video poker.

It was definitely a positive play, but I don't blame you for passing it up either. Sometimes walking by is the most powerful move we make. I feel like in hindsight if I am debating making a play for a long time, the usual right move is to pass it up.

Also you probably know this but the multiplier wilds and expanding reels feature pays way more than the random wilds feature. So depends on which tower is lit up.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Goodboy21
Goodboy21
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March 11th, 2022 at 7:09:39 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Also you probably know this but the multiplier wilds and expanding reels feature pays way more than the random wilds feature. So depends on which tower is lit up.
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That makes sense from my limited experience. Do you have an estimate on how much more Red and Blue beat Green?
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