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Wizard
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Wizard 
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kgb92
March 6th, 2019 at 8:39:45 AM permalink
Let me offer my apologies in advance to those who prefer I not bring up an active advantage play. In my defense, this cat has been out of the bag for a long time. I would file the play, in terms of public knowledge, in the same folder as Ultimate X. There is also a recent article about how some APs crushed this game for about $900,000 here: ONE WEEK, ONE MILLION DOLLARS: ADVANTAGE PLAYERS FIGHTING FOR THEIR WINNINGS AT NJ ONLINE CASINOS.

For those who aren't familiar with Ocean Magic, it is what I call a "variable state" slot machine. That means that the past outcomes can affect the next play, like Ultimate X. To be more specific, there are wild bubbles that randomly start at the bottom of four rows and bubble-up one row at a time the next three spins. Needless to say, these next spins the player must make a bet to get. Players have been known to abandon bubbles, leaving these lucrative wilds to the next player to play. Here is a video of the game:



Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDuZY9rUt5w.

To make matters more complicated, there are two modes to the game. The first I'll call the "normal" mode. The second I'll call the "Bubble Burst" mode. In Bubble Burst mode, randomly extra bubbles will burst onto the screen. As with regular bubbles, they bubble-up one row at a time. In the Atlantic City play, the games started with bubbles in reels 1 and 4 and were in Bubble Burst mode.

Another important rule is that if a bubble hits what I'll call the Logo symbol, it expands to every position on the screen next to it, including diagonally. So, if a bubble hits a Logo in the middle six positions, it will expand to nine bubbles. However, these extra expansion bubbles are temporary and don't rise on the next spin.

To add yet another twist, the pay table is different between normal and Bubble Burst mode. In fact, here they are:

Regular Mode

Symbol 5 in a row 4 in a row 3 in a row 2 in a row
OM 600 100 30 10
SK 200 60 20 0
JF 200 60 20 0
TF 150 40 20 0
ST 150 40 20 0
SH 150 40 20 0
YS 70 30 10 0
RS 70 30 10 0
GS 70 30 10 0


Bubble Burst Mode

Symbol 5 in a row 4 in a row 3 in a row 2 in a row
OM 500 100 30 10
SK 200 60 20 0
JF 200 60 20 0
TF 150 40 20 0
ST 150 40 20 0
SH 150 40 20 0
YS 70 30 0 0
RS 70 30 0 0
GS 70 30 0 0


There is no line item for all wild wins. If the player has wilds only on a payline, they will pay as the Logo symbol, what I call OM in the pay tables above.

Okay, the question I'd like to put forth to the forum is what is the value of a bubble in any given position. I have created a simulation of the game as best I can, based on industry norms and observation of the game. So far, I have it in regular mode only. This is a complicated game so my confidence level in my results thus far are not very high. My simulation is based on a 90% game. That means, that if I run it for millions of spins, it will average to a 90% return. All that said, here are some preliminary results on bubbles in any given reel. For multiple bubbles, you should not add the increases in return, as there is a strong interaction effect. The following tables is for the value of a bubble and total return for the next spin only. It doesn't factor that the positive state can last for multiple spins.

Bubble Reel Increase Total Return
None 0.00% 43.75%
1 51.11% 94.86%
2 55.07% 98.81%
3 49.69% 93.44%
4 9.78% 53.53%
5 2.35% 46.10%
1 and 4 80.93% 124.68%


I suspect some will say my values of bubbles are too low. That is fine, I welcome all comments at this point.

The question for the poll is what do you think the expected value of the next spin with a bubble on the next spin on reel 3 only in regular mode?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 8:57:12 AM permalink
Wizard,

I am very confused by your chart because the value of a bubble also depends on where on the Reel it is located.

For your example of a bubble on Reel 3 only, it is worth the most when it starts on either the bottom of the reel (but not below the reel) or on the second row from the bottom. The reason why is because this single bubble rises up to the second or third row from the bottom and expands to nine spots if an OM symbol connects. If the bubble starts on the third row from the bottom or starts below the reel, then it will go to either the first or fourth row and will only expand to six spots if it connects. These six spots are not only 2/3 of the Wild symbols as the nine spots, the nine spots would also encompass where the six spots go.

I also have a serious contention with the notion that multiple bubbles should not be considered an addition on a single reel. For one thing, the OM symbols will often come two or more together, and if two OM symbols hit on Rows 2 and 3 of Reel 3, for example, then everything on all Reels 2/3/4 becomes Wild. Clearly, that possibility must be at least somewhat better than one bubble. [EDITED TO ADD: Not only this, but some OM symbols travel by themselves, in pairs or as entire stacks, so the more bubbles you have on a single reel, the greater the probability that any OM symbol connects with at least one bubble]

For anyone who is wondering why Reel 1 is worth almost as much as Reel 2, given the points I made above, it is because OM symbols are significantly less likely on Reel 2 (and therefore less likely to hit a bubble) but are more valuable when they do hit.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Mar 7, 2019
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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March 6th, 2019 at 9:10:06 AM permalink
That is a good point that the value of the bubble depends on its row as well as reel. The closer to the middle, the better the effect of expanding. What you see in my table is an average for all rows. I agree that if you have two bubbles in the same row, you can estimate the value by adding the effects, although it would be a little less because an expansion might cover a permanent bubble. I should redo the table to show the value of a bubble in all 20 positions.

I didn't know that about there being fewer OM symbols on reel 2 than reel 1, thanks.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 9:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is a good point that the value of the bubble depends on its row as well as reel. The closer to the middle, the better the effect of expanding. What you see in my table is an average for all rows. I agree that if you have two bubbles in the same row, you can estimate the value by adding the effects, although it would be a little less because an expansion might cover a permanent bubble. I should redo the table to show the value of a bubble in all 20 positions.

I didn't know that about there being fewer OM symbols on reel 2 than reel 1, thanks.



I would definitely go with all twenty positions, but most importantly the different positions on Reels 2/3/4. It's a positional difference of three symbols on a single OM hit whereas Reels 1 & 5 are a positional difference of two wild symbols, depending where it is hit. Reel 5 almost doesn't matter at all. I can tell you that most of us vultures play or don't play without ever looking (or caring) about Reel 5.

You're welcome about the fewer OM on Reel 2 than Reel 1. As far as the fewer OM on Reel 1, I make no promises and that is just based on my empirical observations over, perhaps, 2,000 spins vulturing. Probably more than that, but I feel like I can say definitely at least 2,000. I didn't keep the numbers, though, wasn't important to me.

I did watch the video to which you linked, and for what it's worth, it backs up my claim over a limited sample size. Here are the results of the spins in that video:

Reel 1 Regular Spins-14 OM
Reel 1 Bonus Spins-18 OM
Reel 1 Total-32 OM

Reel 2 Regular Spins-7 OM
Reel 2 Bonus Spins-3 OM
Reel 2 Total-10 OM

That might be a more pronounced difference than I am accustomed to, but I think that there is almost certainly a difference. The OM symbols on Reel 1 tend to come stacked more often than they do on Reel 2. Here's a video of Free Games (51):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcKfei0-EG4

In which it goes 11 on the first reel v. 5 on the second.

Anyway, sorry about my lack of precise numbers, but anyone who vultures these routinely will almost certainly agree with me that the disparity is quite obvious.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 10:17:42 AM permalink
TWO ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS

1. I wonder if the chart above took Free Games into account. I don't even know that Free Games operates on the same bubble probabilities or reel assignments, WAY too limited a sample size (I think I've hit them three times) to even hazard a guess.

2. This game is really more like vulturing Ultimate X Bonus Streak than it is vulturing Ultimate X. There are a couple of different reasons for that:

A.) You will usually end up taking multiple spins.

B.) You're not necessarily only playing for the value of the immediate spin, but you're also playing for the potential value of future spins added if more bubbles end up coming up on your current spin. For example, if you have Bubbles on Reels 2 & 4 (unless they are top/bottom or bottom/top) then hitting an OM on your Reel 2 bubble will result in a few 4OaK (or 5OaK depending what Reel 5 is doing) Ocean Magic pays because of the bubble on Reel 4...even if an OM symbol does not necessarily connect on Reel 4.

Because of this, someone vulturing this game is really vulturing an inexact situation, in terms of knowledge, but based on enough experiences to believe that the starting configuration will result in a positive set of spins (read: play) overall.

C.) As has been alluded to, there is some overlap when it comes to one Bubble expanding to a spot where a, 'Permanent," bubble already exists, but multiple bubbles still give the player a greater overall probability of hitting an OM symbol on AT LEAST one bubble.

D.) Even with side-by-side bubbles, say Reels 2 & 3, not only is the likelihood of connecting on at least one bubble greater, but connecting on both results in a Wild expansion from Reel 1 all the way to Reel 4. It doesn't matter that there is overlap, it's still more 4OaKs and 5OaKs.

E.) Without the Bubble Boost feature, side-by-side bubbles (or close diagonally) on Reels 1 & 2 or especially Reels 2 & 3 are automatically 3OaK of something with exception to Treasure Chests. Any symbol that is not a treasure chest is a guaranteed win on the affected lines. With Bubble Boost, side-by-side OM symbols on Reels 1 & 2 (or diagonally close) are guaranteed to pay on 2OaK OM. Reels 2 & 3 is not a guaranteed pay, (certain 3OaKs do not pay with Bubble Boost on) but it is a highly likely pay.

F.) In any case, side-by-side bubbles on any two reels 1-4 make 4OaKs and 5OaKs more likely...fewer other symbols need to match on the Reels with no wilds.

---What all of this leads to is that vultures are not only playing for the value of the current spin, but also the added value that will come by way of future spins based on the potentiality for Bubbles to be added.

I'd say any analysis of a single bubble is going to be tough as would an overall analysis of the game. The goal is really to end up with bubbles that increase the probability of an OM expansion and/or are working together on your spins. I think it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to identify every single advantageous configuration with 100% certainty, ergo, some vultures are more aggressive than others.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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Mission146Chuckleberry
March 6th, 2019 at 3:47:17 PM permalink
1. This game was complicated enough without adding the bonus to it. What I did, for now at least, was I turned the bonus into a scatter pay, with a probability of getting 3 or more scatters of 1% and a return to player of 17.34%. This is consistent with the industry for a bonus.

2B. I absolutely agree that the player should be thinking of the total value of any given bubble configuration, not just the next spin. Once the player starts playing, he may be at it for 10 to 15 spins until the game is no longer positive. I plan to add figures on the total value by Bubble location later.

2C-F: My simulation would take all these rules into account. However, I still had to give it reel stripping and a Bubble probability, which were just educated guesses.

Quote:

I'd say any analysis of a single bubble is going to be tough as would an overall analysis of the game.



I fully agree. This is the kind of game that you pretty much have to analyze by simulation.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MaxPen
MaxPen
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March 6th, 2019 at 4:18:59 PM permalink
Are you working with an actual complete par sheet for the game?
#FREENATHAN
Wizard
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Wizard 
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March 6th, 2019 at 5:10:24 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Are you working with an actual complete par sheet for the game?



Nope. I'd like to say I didn't use one, so nobody can say I'm leaking confidential information. Besides, it may not help. Many par sheets are rather vague about and don't contain all the pertinent rules. They are more for the benefit of slot managers, just wanting to know the return and variance.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mamat
mamat
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March 6th, 2019 at 10:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me offer my apologies in advance to those who prefer I not bring up an active advantage play. In my defense, this cat has been out of the bag for a long time.

Ocean Magic was released Mar 2016 (or earlier in 2015?)... so it's a 3-to-4-yr-old play. Older than A3D, PVZ, and GE.

Quote: Mission146

For your example of a bubble on Reel 3 only, it is worth the most when it starts on either the bottom of the reel (but not below the reel) or on the second row from the bottom. The reason why is because this single bubble rises up to the second or third row from the bottom and expands to nine spots if an OM symbol connects. If the bubble starts on the [SECOND] row or starts below the reel, then it will go to either the first or fourth row and will only expand to six spots if it connects.

Most valuable bubbles (counting ONLY the next spin):
(A) C2R3 (Col 2 Row 3), C2R4, C3R3, C3R4 - Next spin, can expand to 9 bubbles
(B) C1R3, C1R4, C2R2, C2R5 (below 4th row), C3R2, C3R5 - Can expand to 6 bubbles
(C) C1R5 - Can expand to 4 bubbles
(D) C1R2 - Many people don't play this, can expand to 4 bubbles
(E) C4R3, C4R4 - Most people don't play these
(F) C4R2, C4R5 - Most people don't play these
(G) C5Rx - Most people don't play these
(H) CxR1 - Worthless

Haven't done a spin analysis to compare values of the A bubbles with each other (e.g. is row 2 or row 3 more valuable).
And also unsure of ranking of the B bubbles. C2R2 and C2R5 are probably worth more.

Quote: Wizard

I have created a simulation of the game as best I can, based on industry norms and observation of the game. So far, I have it in regular mode only. This is a complicated game so my confidence level in my results thus far are not very high. My simulation is based on a 90% game.

I have never seen a par sheet, and am unaware of the range of possible "overall return" settings at different casinos.
My guess at "overall return" would be 84-88% (with Harrahs at 84-85%, or the lowest available setting), like other recent novelty games.

Note: Par sheets exist for each software revision, and "overall return" can change with software updates.

-----
As mentioned by others, have to add values of all positive EV spins before quitting (could be 1 spin or 20+ spins).
So C2R4 is more valuable than C2R3 (when counting all future spins).

Enjoy the analysis.
The game was so obviously a money-maker in 2015-2016 (Hit jackpot very early at a super-tight Harrahs casino) that I never bothered to do any analysis (unlike A3D and PVZ, where it was less clear what was +EV), but also wasn't considering high-denomination plays.

For compactness of notation, you could use
(A) 23, 24, 33, 34
(B) 13, 14, 22, 25, 32, 35
(C) 15
(D) 12
(E) 43, 44
(F) 42, 45
(G) 5x
(H) x1
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 6, 2019
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146Hunterhill
March 7th, 2019 at 12:37:15 AM permalink
The cat is still in the bag to many people that play the other machines. After a few months they finally see catch me play, but not until then. You will do damage.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves

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