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Wizard
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March 6th, 2019 at 8:39:45 AM permalink
Let me offer my apologies in advance to those who prefer I not bring up an active advantage play. In my defense, this cat has been out of the bag for a long time. I would file the play, in terms of public knowledge, in the same folder as Ultimate X. There is also a recent article about how some APs crushed this game for about $900,000 here: ONE WEEK, ONE MILLION DOLLARS: ADVANTAGE PLAYERS FIGHTING FOR THEIR WINNINGS AT NJ ONLINE CASINOS.

For those who aren't familiar with Ocean Magic, it is what I call a "variable state" slot machine. That means that the past outcomes can affect the next play, like Ultimate X. To be more specific, there are wild bubbles that randomly start at the bottom of four rows and bubble-up one row at a time the next three spins. Needless to say, these next spins the player must make a bet to get. Players have been known to abandon bubbles, leaving these lucrative wilds to the next player to play. Here is a video of the game:



Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDuZY9rUt5w.

To make matters more complicated, there are two modes to the game. The first I'll call the "normal" mode. The second I'll call the "Bubble Burst" mode. In Bubble Burst mode, randomly extra bubbles will burst onto the screen. As with regular bubbles, they bubble-up one row at a time. In the Atlantic City play, the games started with bubbles in reels 1 and 4 and were in Bubble Burst mode.

Another important rule is that if a bubble hits what I'll call the Logo symbol, it expands to every position on the screen next to it, including diagonally. So, if a bubble hits a Logo in the middle six positions, it will expand to nine bubbles. However, these extra expansion bubbles are temporary and don't rise on the next spin.

To add yet another twist, the pay table is different between normal and Bubble Burst mode. In fact, here they are:

Regular Mode

Symbol 5 in a row 4 in a row 3 in a row 2 in a row
OM 600 100 30 10
SK 200 60 20 0
JF 200 60 20 0
TF 150 40 20 0
ST 150 40 20 0
SH 150 40 20 0
YS 70 30 10 0
RS 70 30 10 0
GS 70 30 10 0


Bubble Burst Mode

Symbol 5 in a row 4 in a row 3 in a row 2 in a row
OM 500 100 30 10
SK 200 60 20 0
JF 200 60 20 0
TF 150 40 20 0
ST 150 40 20 0
SH 150 40 20 0
YS 70 30 0 0
RS 70 30 0 0
GS 70 30 0 0


There is no line item for all wild wins. If the player has wilds only on a payline, they will pay as the Logo symbol, what I call OM in the pay tables above.

Okay, the question I'd like to put forth to the forum is what is the value of a bubble in any given position. I have created a simulation of the game as best I can, based on industry norms and observation of the game. So far, I have it in regular mode only. This is a complicated game so my confidence level in my results thus far are not very high. My simulation is based on a 90% game. That means, that if I run it for millions of spins, it will average to a 90% return. All that said, here are some preliminary results on bubbles in any given reel. For multiple bubbles, you should not add the increases in return, as there is a strong interaction effect. The following tables is for the value of a bubble and total return for the next spin only. It doesn't factor that the positive state can last for multiple spins.

Bubble Reel Increase Total Return
None 0.00% 43.75%
1 51.11% 94.86%
2 55.07% 98.81%
3 49.69% 93.44%
4 9.78% 53.53%
5 2.35% 46.10%
1 and 4 80.93% 124.68%


I suspect some will say my values of bubbles are too low. That is fine, I welcome all comments at this point.

The question for the poll is what do you think the expected value of the next spin with a bubble on the next spin on reel 3 only in regular mode?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 8:57:12 AM permalink
Wizard,

I am very confused by your chart because the value of a bubble also depends on where on the Reel it is located.

For your example of a bubble on Reel 3 only, it is worth the most when it starts on either the bottom of the reel (but not below the reel) or on the second row from the bottom. The reason why is because this single bubble rises up to the second or third row from the bottom and expands to nine spots if an OM symbol connects. If the bubble starts on the third row from the bottom or starts below the reel, then it will go to either the first or fourth row and will only expand to six spots if it connects. These six spots are not only 2/3 of the Wild symbols as the nine spots, the nine spots would also encompass where the six spots go.

I also have a serious contention with the notion that multiple bubbles should not be considered an addition on a single reel. For one thing, the OM symbols will often come two or more together, and if two OM symbols hit on Rows 2 and 3 of Reel 3, for example, then everything on all Reels 2/3/4 becomes Wild. Clearly, that possibility must be at least somewhat better than one bubble. [EDITED TO ADD: Not only this, but some OM symbols travel by themselves, in pairs or as entire stacks, so the more bubbles you have on a single reel, the greater the probability that any OM symbol connects with at least one bubble]

For anyone who is wondering why Reel 1 is worth almost as much as Reel 2, given the points I made above, it is because OM symbols are significantly less likely on Reel 2 (and therefore less likely to hit a bubble) but are more valuable when they do hit.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Mar 7, 2019
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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March 6th, 2019 at 9:10:06 AM permalink
That is a good point that the value of the bubble depends on its row as well as reel. The closer to the middle, the better the effect of expanding. What you see in my table is an average for all rows. I agree that if you have two bubbles in the same row, you can estimate the value by adding the effects, although it would be a little less because an expansion might cover a permanent bubble. I should redo the table to show the value of a bubble in all 20 positions.

I didn't know that about there being fewer OM symbols on reel 2 than reel 1, thanks.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 9:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is a good point that the value of the bubble depends on its row as well as reel. The closer to the middle, the better the effect of expanding. What you see in my table is an average for all rows. I agree that if you have two bubbles in the same row, you can estimate the value by adding the effects, although it would be a little less because an expansion might cover a permanent bubble. I should redo the table to show the value of a bubble in all 20 positions.

I didn't know that about there being fewer OM symbols on reel 2 than reel 1, thanks.



I would definitely go with all twenty positions, but most importantly the different positions on Reels 2/3/4. It's a positional difference of three symbols on a single OM hit whereas Reels 1 & 5 are a positional difference of two wild symbols, depending where it is hit. Reel 5 almost doesn't matter at all. I can tell you that most of us vultures play or don't play without ever looking (or caring) about Reel 5.

You're welcome about the fewer OM on Reel 2 than Reel 1. As far as the fewer OM on Reel 1, I make no promises and that is just based on my empirical observations over, perhaps, 2,000 spins vulturing. Probably more than that, but I feel like I can say definitely at least 2,000. I didn't keep the numbers, though, wasn't important to me.

I did watch the video to which you linked, and for what it's worth, it backs up my claim over a limited sample size. Here are the results of the spins in that video:

Reel 1 Regular Spins-14 OM
Reel 1 Bonus Spins-18 OM
Reel 1 Total-32 OM

Reel 2 Regular Spins-7 OM
Reel 2 Bonus Spins-3 OM
Reel 2 Total-10 OM

That might be a more pronounced difference than I am accustomed to, but I think that there is almost certainly a difference. The OM symbols on Reel 1 tend to come stacked more often than they do on Reel 2. Here's a video of Free Games (51):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcKfei0-EG4

In which it goes 11 on the first reel v. 5 on the second.

Anyway, sorry about my lack of precise numbers, but anyone who vultures these routinely will almost certainly agree with me that the disparity is quite obvious.
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Mission146
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March 6th, 2019 at 10:17:42 AM permalink
TWO ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS

1. I wonder if the chart above took Free Games into account. I don't even know that Free Games operates on the same bubble probabilities or reel assignments, WAY too limited a sample size (I think I've hit them three times) to even hazard a guess.

2. This game is really more like vulturing Ultimate X Bonus Streak than it is vulturing Ultimate X. There are a couple of different reasons for that:

A.) You will usually end up taking multiple spins.

B.) You're not necessarily only playing for the value of the immediate spin, but you're also playing for the potential value of future spins added if more bubbles end up coming up on your current spin. For example, if you have Bubbles on Reels 2 & 4 (unless they are top/bottom or bottom/top) then hitting an OM on your Reel 2 bubble will result in a few 4OaK (or 5OaK depending what Reel 5 is doing) Ocean Magic pays because of the bubble on Reel 4...even if an OM symbol does not necessarily connect on Reel 4.

Because of this, someone vulturing this game is really vulturing an inexact situation, in terms of knowledge, but based on enough experiences to believe that the starting configuration will result in a positive set of spins (read: play) overall.

C.) As has been alluded to, there is some overlap when it comes to one Bubble expanding to a spot where a, 'Permanent," bubble already exists, but multiple bubbles still give the player a greater overall probability of hitting an OM symbol on AT LEAST one bubble.

D.) Even with side-by-side bubbles, say Reels 2 & 3, not only is the likelihood of connecting on at least one bubble greater, but connecting on both results in a Wild expansion from Reel 1 all the way to Reel 4. It doesn't matter that there is overlap, it's still more 4OaKs and 5OaKs.

E.) Without the Bubble Boost feature, side-by-side bubbles (or close diagonally) on Reels 1 & 2 or especially Reels 2 & 3 are automatically 3OaK of something with exception to Treasure Chests. Any symbol that is not a treasure chest is a guaranteed win on the affected lines. With Bubble Boost, side-by-side OM symbols on Reels 1 & 2 (or diagonally close) are guaranteed to pay on 2OaK OM. Reels 2 & 3 is not a guaranteed pay, (certain 3OaKs do not pay with Bubble Boost on) but it is a highly likely pay.

F.) In any case, side-by-side bubbles on any two reels 1-4 make 4OaKs and 5OaKs more likely...fewer other symbols need to match on the Reels with no wilds.

---What all of this leads to is that vultures are not only playing for the value of the current spin, but also the added value that will come by way of future spins based on the potentiality for Bubbles to be added.

I'd say any analysis of a single bubble is going to be tough as would an overall analysis of the game. The goal is really to end up with bubbles that increase the probability of an OM expansion and/or are working together on your spins. I think it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to identify every single advantageous configuration with 100% certainty, ergo, some vultures are more aggressive than others.
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Wizard
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March 6th, 2019 at 3:47:17 PM permalink
1. This game was complicated enough without adding the bonus to it. What I did, for now at least, was I turned the bonus into a scatter pay, with a probability of getting 3 or more scatters of 1% and a return to player of 17.34%. This is consistent with the industry for a bonus.

2B. I absolutely agree that the player should be thinking of the total value of any given bubble configuration, not just the next spin. Once the player starts playing, he may be at it for 10 to 15 spins until the game is no longer positive. I plan to add figures on the total value by Bubble location later.

2C-F: My simulation would take all these rules into account. However, I still had to give it reel stripping and a Bubble probability, which were just educated guesses.

Quote:

I'd say any analysis of a single bubble is going to be tough as would an overall analysis of the game.



I fully agree. This is the kind of game that you pretty much have to analyze by simulation.
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MaxPen
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March 6th, 2019 at 4:18:59 PM permalink
Are you working with an actual complete par sheet for the game?
Wizard
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March 6th, 2019 at 5:10:24 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Are you working with an actual complete par sheet for the game?



Nope. I'd like to say I didn't use one, so nobody can say I'm leaking confidential information. Besides, it may not help. Many par sheets are rather vague about and don't contain all the pertinent rules. They are more for the benefit of slot managers, just wanting to know the return and variance.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mamat
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March 6th, 2019 at 10:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me offer my apologies in advance to those who prefer I not bring up an active advantage play. In my defense, this cat has been out of the bag for a long time.

Ocean Magic was released Mar 2016 (or earlier in 2015?)... so it's a 3-to-4-yr-old play. Older than A3D, PVZ, and GE.

Quote: Mission146

For your example of a bubble on Reel 3 only, it is worth the most when it starts on either the bottom of the reel (but not below the reel) or on the second row from the bottom. The reason why is because this single bubble rises up to the second or third row from the bottom and expands to nine spots if an OM symbol connects. If the bubble starts on the [SECOND] row or starts below the reel, then it will go to either the first or fourth row and will only expand to six spots if it connects.

Most valuable bubbles (counting ONLY the next spin):
(A) C2R3 (Col 2 Row 3), C2R4, C3R3, C3R4 - Next spin, can expand to 9 bubbles
(B) C1R3, C1R4, C2R2, C2R5 (below 4th row), C3R2, C3R5 - Can expand to 6 bubbles
(C) C1R5 - Can expand to 4 bubbles
(D) C1R2 - Many people don't play this, can expand to 4 bubbles
(E) C4R3, C4R4 - Most people don't play these
(F) C4R2, C4R5 - Most people don't play these
(G) C5Rx - Most people don't play these
(H) CxR1 - Worthless

Haven't done a spin analysis to compare values of the A bubbles with each other (e.g. is row 2 or row 3 more valuable).
And also unsure of ranking of the B bubbles. C2R2 and C2R5 are probably worth more.

Quote: Wizard

I have created a simulation of the game as best I can, based on industry norms and observation of the game. So far, I have it in regular mode only. This is a complicated game so my confidence level in my results thus far are not very high. My simulation is based on a 90% game.

I have never seen a par sheet, and am unaware of the range of possible "overall return" settings at different casinos.
My guess at "overall return" would be 84-88% (with Harrahs at 84-85%, or the lowest available setting), like other recent novelty games.

Note: Par sheets exist for each software revision, and "overall return" can change with software updates.

-----
As mentioned by others, have to add values of all positive EV spins before quitting (could be 1 spin or 20+ spins).
So C2R4 is more valuable than C2R3 (when counting all future spins).

Enjoy the analysis.
The game was so obviously a money-maker in 2015-2016 (Hit jackpot very early at a super-tight Harrahs casino) that I never bothered to do any analysis (unlike A3D and PVZ, where it was less clear what was +EV), but also wasn't considering high-denomination plays.

For compactness of notation, you could use
(A) 23, 24, 33, 34
(B) 13, 14, 22, 25, 32, 35
(C) 15
(D) 12
(E) 43, 44
(F) 42, 45
(G) 5x
(H) x1
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 6, 2019
onenickelmiracle
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March 7th, 2019 at 12:37:15 AM permalink
The cat is still in the bag to many people that play the other machines. After a few months they finally see catch me play, but not until then. You will do damage.
I am a robot.
Wizard
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March 7th, 2019 at 5:28:37 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

Most valuable bubbles (counting ONLY the next spin):
(A) C2R3 (Col 2 Row 3), C2R4, C3R3, C3R4 - Next spin, can expand to 9 bubbles
(B) C1R3, C1R4, C2R2, C2R5 (below 4th row), C3R2, C3R5 - Can expand to 6 bubbles
(C) C1R5 - Can expand to 4 bubbles
(D) C1R2 - Many people don't play this, can expand to 4 bubbles
(E) C4R3, C4R4 - Most people don't play these
(F) C4R2, C4R5 - Most people don't play these
(G) C5Rx - Most people don't play these
(H) CxR1 - Worthless



Thank you for all your comments, including these.

My next step is to make some tweaks to the reel stripping, to have fewer logo symbols in the middle of the screen and more on the edges. I'll also estimate the value of a bubble in all 20 positions.
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Wizard
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March 7th, 2019 at 7:25:59 AM permalink
Here are some new results, after tweaking the reel strips to have fewer Ocean Magic symbols in reels 2 to 4, compared to 1 and 5. The following table show the return according to where the wild will be on the NEXT spin. I might remind you that bubbles can be seed below row 4, ready to bubble-up to row 4 on the next spin. This is based on an overall 90% game in normal mode (as opposed to Bubble Burst).

103% 102% 93% 55% 47%
164% 125% 163% 71% 51%
162% 126% 162% 72% 53%
110% 75% 91% 55% 48%


The return for no bubbles is 43%.

I think I'm going to have to do some sampling on symbol frequency per reel. Fortunately, there are plenty of YouTube videos of people playing, but most seems to be in Bubble Burst mode. Do the OM players feel there is different reel stripping between regular and Bubble Burst modes? The rule screens mention that separate reel stripping is used in free spins, but no mention about Bubble Burst mode. By omission, I assume the reels are the same.
Last edited by: Wizard on Mar 7, 2019
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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March 7th, 2019 at 7:55:23 AM permalink
Why fewer OM symbols on Reels 2-4? Iíll go through and watch those two videos and count again, but Reel 2 is the only one Iíve noticed to be fewer. Reel 3 might even have a few more than Reel 1.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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March 7th, 2019 at 9:20:39 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

THE AUDACITY OF YOU TO LIKE ONM POST!!!

Just busting your balls a bit.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
LeonardShelby
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March 7th, 2019 at 3:38:23 PM permalink
Why are you getting a higher return in reel 1 than reel 3?
kuma
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March 7th, 2019 at 3:51:34 PM permalink
I do not have any firm evidence of this, but I believe there are at least as many, if not more, OM symbols on Reel 3 than other reels. They are stacked together, and go by like a high-speed Japanese passenger train when missing your wild bubble. The dreaded drive-by. I also have not noticed a difference in OM symbols between Bubble Boost and non-Bubble Boost, but again, have no studies to confirm this. I would have guessed Reel 3 was the most valuable reel.
Wizard
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March 7th, 2019 at 4:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: LeonardShelby

Why are you getting a higher return in reel 1 than reel 3?



More Ocean Magic symbols on reel 1, as least based on my hypothetical reels. However, I should have another good update in a couple days, when I have some actual data on symbol frequency by reel.
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:13:26 PM permalink
I hired someone (not sure I'm allowed to say who) to record the symbol frequency on 206 spins. For situation where there was a bubble, the symbol under the bubble was recorded. Here are the raw results.

Symbol Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
Logo 47 18 95 43 46
Shark 144 121 53 69 65
Jelly fish 83 69 87 58 81
Tiger fish 49 92 128 69 98
Sea turtle 124 81 39 78 78
Sea Horse 80 125 45 104 102
Yellow star 91 77 173 95 85
Red star 99 121 102 146 133
Green star 91 100 95 149 123
Scatter 16 20 7 13 13
Total 824 824 824 824 824


I reduced them to a shorter reel, as follows:

Symbol Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
Logo 5 2 9 4 5
Shark 15 12 5 7 7
Jelly fish 8 7 9 6 8
Tiger fish 5 9 13 7 10
Sea turtle 13 9 5 8 8
Sea Horse 8 13 5 10 10
Yellow star 9 8 17 10 9
Red star 10 12 10 16 14
Green star 9 10 10 15 12
Scatter 2 2 1 1 1
Total 84 84 84 84 84


This set of reels has many more logo (Ocean Magic) symbols than before. To bring the overall game to a 90% return, I lowered the new bubble frequency per reel to 2.1%. This means that on average there will be 0.42 bubbles on the screen. Again, these are for spins that are NOT in Bubble Burst mode.

All that said, here is my new return table for the next spin according to where a bubble will be for that spin.

Return Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 111% 105% 252% 57% 30%
2 176% 199% 540% 92% 34%
3 174% 197% 534% 92% 34%
4 107% 101% 245% 55% 30%


The return when there are no bubbles on the screen is 25.70%.

Based on this, a simple basic strategy would be to play with any bubble in reels 1 to 3.

Comments?
Last edited by: Wizard on Mar 10, 2019
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:29:59 PM permalink
That looks much closer to correct to me. I donít know that Iíd have guessed 500% for a Reel 3 Bubble, but I suppose thatís possible.

Going in with experience vulturing this game, these results at least reflect what I would play pretty closely. I would say they also reflect what I would roughly expect, with exception to the fact that I wouldnít have guessed Reel 3 to be quite THAT powerful.

Iím not surprised to see the return without bubbles so low. From your data set in the table, it looks like the reels are specifically designed to screw the player without OM symbols and a bubble. Wonít see too many natural sea turtles, sea horses and shark 3OaK-5OaK, thatís for sure.
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March 10th, 2019 at 7:39:50 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That looks much closer to correct to me. I donít know that Iíd have guessed 500% for a Reel 3 Bubble, but I suppose thatís possible.



You can see from the data I presented that there are a LOT of logo symbols on reel 3. A bubble to be in row 2 or 3 on reel 3 would have a very good chance to expand the next spin.
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mcallister3200
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March 10th, 2019 at 8:00:29 PM permalink
I donít believe only 1 bubble in column one without help elsewhere on the board is positive, column two one without help questionable.
Mission146
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March 10th, 2019 at 8:36:01 PM permalink
Iíd say itís pretty borderline, which this seems to represent. I think another thing worth keeping in mind is that Wizardís reel set is designed to return 90%, and I would be shocked and astounded if the Ocean Magic Games I vulture have that high a base return. That could turn something from a borderline positive into a borderline negative.

I think Reel 1 going to the top is extremely borderline. I havenít tracked every single play, but Reel 1 Row 2 or Row 3, I think, has had positive results for me as a starting point.
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smurgerburger
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March 11th, 2019 at 12:12:07 AM permalink
I observed a slot tech either installing or calibrating the software on an IGT multigame machine at a locals casino in LV that is known for having loose slots. The Ocean Magic RTP that he went with was 86.x% if I remember correctly. (I actually recorded a video but I can't quite read the numbers off it without any enhancement.)

All of the games (including Golden Egypt) had the same RTP except for one game I had not heard of called something Riches or something like that which was around 95% RTP.

Anyway independently of this evidence I've always assumed 15% RTP as a slightly conservative figure for penny slots.
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March 11th, 2019 at 6:53:57 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I think another thing worth keeping in mind is that Wizardís reel set is designed to return 90%, and I would be shocked and astounded if the Ocean Magic Games I vulture have that high a base return.



I've heard this comment before. The reason I set it to 90% is the Nevada Gaming Revenue Report for the 12-month period ending 1/31/19 says the win percent on 1-cent slots is 9.98%. Thus, a return of 90.02%.

One might argue that this 9.98% figure mixed in penny video poker, which is a valid point, but I think the vast majority, like 99% of penny games are reeled slots.
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March 11th, 2019 at 9:20:12 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've heard this comment before. The reason I set it to 90% is the Nevada Gaming Revenue Report for the 12-month period ending 1/31/19 says the win percent on 1-cent slots is 9.98%. Thus, a return of 90.02%.

One might argue that this 9.98% figure mixed in penny video poker, which is a valid point, but I think the vast majority, like 99% of penny games are reeled slots.



In Las Vegas it is safe to assume that any new video penny slots on the strip will be 85%-88%. Usually the locals casinos are about 2% better.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
MaxPen
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March 11th, 2019 at 9:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hired someone (not sure I'm allowed to say who) to record the symbol frequency on 206 spins. For situation where there was a bubble, the symbol under the bubble was recorded. Here are the raw results.

Symbol Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
Logo 47 18 95 43 46
Shark 144 121 53 69 65
Jelly fish 83 69 87 58 81
Tiger fish 49 92 128 69 98
Sea turtle 124 81 39 78 78
Sea Horse 80 125 45 104 102
Yellow star 91 77 173 95 85
Red star 99 121 102 146 133
Green star 91 100 95 149 123
Scatter 16 20 7 13 13
Total 824 824 824 824 824


I reduced them to a shorter reel, as follows:

Symbol Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
Logo 5 2 9 4 5
Shark 15 12 5 7 7
Jelly fish 8 7 9 6 8
Tiger fish 5 9 13 7 10
Sea turtle 13 9 5 8 8
Sea Horse 8 13 5 10 10
Yellow star 9 8 17 10 9
Red star 10 12 10 16 14
Green star 9 10 10 15 12
Scatter 2 2 1 1 1
Total 84 84 84 84 84


This set of reels has many more logo (Ocean Magic) symbols than before. To bring the overall game to a 90% return, I lowered the new bubble frequency per reel to 2.1%. This means that on average there will be 0.42 bubbles on the screen. Again, these are for spins that are NOT in Bubble Burst mode.

All that said, here is my new return table for the next spin according to where a bubble will be for that spin.

Return Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 111% 105% 252% 57% 30%
2 176% 199% 540% 92% 34%
3 174% 197% 534% 92% 34%
4 107% 101% 245% 55% 30%


The return when there are no bubbles on the screen is 25.70%.

Based on this, a simple basic strategy would be to play with any bubble in reels 1 to 3.

Comments?



What is your consideration for the payback percentage tied up in the bonus round for the game?
Wizard
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March 11th, 2019 at 10:41:52 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

In Las Vegas it is safe to assume that any new video penny slots on the strip will be 85%-88%. Usually the locals casinos are about 2% better.



I greatly respect your opinion, but can you elaborate on why you believe this?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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March 11th, 2019 at 10:43:14 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

What is your consideration for the payback percentage tied up in the bonus round for the game?



I assume the return from that is 16.5%. This seems in line with other IGT games.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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March 11th, 2019 at 1:13:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I greatly respect your opinion, but can you elaborate on why you believe this?



Experience as both a game designer and as someone that has configured slot floors for casinos. As with most small companies, I have usually been involved with all aspects of Gaming. I have delivered and configured slot machines that our companies have designed to casinos all over the country through the years.

One of the two major gaming companies on the strip was always asking us to make available tighter percentages because our lowest was an 86% game. We then started creating paytables as low as 83% for them.

The newer titles have such a high turnover rate now that the casinos just seem to be gouging the customers because in a year that game will probably not be on the floor anymore. I would be absolutely shocked if you found a game like Ocean Magic at a big casino on the strip at better than 88%.

Another consideration is that many of the new machines are leased with a revenue split and not purchased. The typical split is the casino keeps 80% and gives 20% of the revenue to the manufacturer. With the casino giving 20% of their win away they tighten the machines so their win amount is higher. This scenario also leads to the high turnover in game titles as the casino hasn't purchased it and can usually swap it out with another title from that manufacturer at little to no charge.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
smurgerburger
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March 11th, 2019 at 4:13:51 PM permalink
Wiz, would you consider posting a second EV table consistent with 85% RTP?
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March 11th, 2019 at 6:37:24 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

One of the two major gaming companies on the strip was always asking us to make available tighter percentages because our lowest was an 86% game.



Thanks Dave -- great answer! As to this, I have a feeling I know which one you're referring to.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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March 11th, 2019 at 6:51:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Dave -- great answer! As to this, I have a feeling I know which one you're referring to.



Canít imagine both MGM & CZR wouldnít both be looking for higher holds, although with the current MGM2020 initiatives, they could be the leader.
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March 11th, 2019 at 10:15:12 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Dave -- great answer! As to this, I have a feeling I know which one you're referring to.

I would speculate the place that has $5 6/5 JOB.

Not even the convince stores have pay-tables that bad on higher denominations.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mcallister3200
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March 11th, 2019 at 10:23:13 PM permalink
mamat has mentioned in the past that most harrahs penny slots are 84.x% iirc.
mamat
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March 12th, 2019 at 6:00:28 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

mamat has mentioned in the past that most harrahs penny slots are 84.x% iirc.

I saw one bank of six Harrah's 5K Ainsworth progressives installed with 84.52%, 84.53%, 84.5x%

Some games don't have any settings that low, so they might be 85-89%. Some may be set below 84%.
Personally I have not seen 99.99%+ of Harrahs' penny machines, so there's no way I would say "MOST"
...but those that I have seen have been on the low end (e.g. Harrahs 10K $ can be set from 90-94%, typically 90-92% even though 88-89% settings exist).
---
At a non-Harrah's casino, I saw a penny machine set 80-81%. Scary low!
I was going to play it fun (to generate some play on non-AP machines), but decided not to after seeing the setting. Whoa...

---
Another casino likes to set penny machines at 92% or 93%.
And some games don't have any settings that high, so there might be some with 88-91% settings.
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 12, 2019
mamat
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March 12th, 2019 at 6:07:38 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Wizard

I've heard this comment before. The reason I set it to 90% is the Nevada Gaming Revenue Report for the 12-month period ending 1/31/19 says the win percent on 1-cent slots is 9.98%. Thus, a return of 90.02%.

One might argue that this 9.98% figure mixed in penny video poker, which is a valid point, but I think the vast majority, like 99% of penny games are reeled slots.

In Las Vegas it is safe to assume that any new video penny slots on the strip will be 85%-88%. Usually the locals casinos are about 2% better.

Seeing a few novelty game settings downtown Nov 2017 - Feb 2018, I would NOT assume that downtown is any better than the strip.

Quote: DRich

One of the two major gaming companies on the strip was always asking us to make available tighter percentages because our lowest was an 86% game. We then started creating paytables as low as 83% for them.

The newer titles have such a high turnover rate now that the casinos just seem to be gouging the customers because in a year that game will probably not be on the floor anymore. I would be absolutely shocked if you found a game like Ocean Magic at a big casino on the strip at better than 88%.

I would agree about the novelty titles having tight settings. Do NOT use official average settings (which include video poker, reel slots, and regular video slots).

To be safe, I would guess 84-87% for an unknown strip casino penny slot. 84% for Harrahs.
If you have Vegas casino experience, you might be able to rank the strip casinos in terms of tightness/looseness.

Typical Indian casino 88-89%. Tight Indian casino 86-87%. Loose Indian casino 90-93%.

----
For a game which doesn't require much money, I wouldn't care too much about the exact setting.
If I play at 115% @88%, the game will still probably still be +EV @86%.

If $10K-50K is required to play, I prefer to see the actual machine setting & do detailed analysis.
If no exact info, maybe assume I could be wrong by +/- 2%.
There are known cases where a casino has shifted a 97% to 91%, or 91% to 95%. But it's too difficult to play with that wide a range under competition.

I stay away from games which require $50K-500K.
Last edited by: mamat on Mar 12, 2019
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March 12th, 2019 at 6:57:04 AM permalink
Since everybody is telling me 90% is too high, I reconfigured my simulation to pay 85%. I also made some adjustments with the bonus. That said, here are the new expected values on the next spin in non-bubble burst mode.

Reel Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
0 125% 120% 265% 71% 45%
1 188% 212% 554% 106% 47%
2 188% 211% 549% 105% 47%
3 121% 114% 258% 69% 44%


Overall return = 85.35%
No bubble return = 39.24%
New bubble probability per reel = 1.56%
Return from bonus = 17.38%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Romes
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March 12th, 2019 at 9:57:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Since everybody is telling me 90% is too high, I reconfigured my simulation to pay 85%. I also made some adjustments with the bonus. That said, here are the new expected values on the next spin in non-bubble burst mode.

Reel Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
0 125% 120% 265% 71% 45%
1 188% 212% 554% 106% 47%
2 188% 211% 549% 105% 47%
3 121% 114% 258% 69% 44%


Overall return = 85.35%
No bubble return = 39.24%
New bubble probability per reel = 1.56%
Return from bonus = 17.38%

Just to clarify... In Reel 4, Position 3, it shows 69% return if the bubble will be there NEXT ROUND while playing. Does this mean it ADDS 69% to the overall 85.35% return? Or does this mean "in this state" the return of the game is only 69%? I think it's the latter, but I'm confusing myself... my apologies =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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March 12th, 2019 at 10:15:00 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Just to clarify... In Reel 4, Position 3, it shows 69% return if the bubble will be there NEXT ROUND while playing. Does this mean it ADDS 69% to the overall 85.35% return? Or does this mean "in this state" the return of the game is only 69%? I think it's the latter, but I'm confusing myself... my apologies =).



That means that on the NEXT spin the bubble will be in that position. The 69% is the total return, as opposed to the additional return.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
prozema
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March 12th, 2019 at 11:58:02 AM permalink
If a single bubble on reel 3 is ever worth 500% rtp, I'm running cold.
MaxPen
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March 12th, 2019 at 11:58:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Since everybody is telling me 90% is too high, I reconfigured my simulation to pay 85%. I also made some adjustments with the bonus. That said, here are the new expected values on the next spin in non-bubble burst mode.

Reel Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
0 125% 120% 265% 71% 45%
1 188% 212% 554% 106% 47%
2 188% 211% 549% 105% 47%
3 121% 114% 258% 69% 44%


Overall return = 85.35%
No bubble return = 39.24%
New bubble probability per reel = 1.56%
Return from bonus = 17.38%



That's looking a whole lot closer to correct. Column 3 looks inflated.
Mission146
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March 12th, 2019 at 12:20:56 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

If a single bubble on reel 3 is ever worth 500% rtp, I'm running cold.



Could be, a not insignifiant percentage of that percentage comes from 4OaK OM symbols and 5OaK OM. Almost all of it relies on nailing an OM symbol on your bubble, so thereís a ton of Variance there vulturing.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
smurgerburger
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March 12th, 2019 at 1:23:48 PM permalink
One way of verifying this is to consider the frequency of Big Wins vs Massive Wins vs Huge Wins vs Spectacular Wins etc. for OM compared to say GE.

GE is heavily skewed toward Big Wins that at least for the vulture are commonplace. OM comparatively speaking generates a lot of Amazing and Spectacular wins that almost require multiple bubbles working together with something covering the middle. But of course these larger wins are offset by more dud sessions.
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March 12th, 2019 at 7:16:50 PM permalink
I'm about to post some results in Bubble Burst mode, which do not have the huge advantages as in normal mode.

Also, I just uploaded a video of some play I did yesterday. Warning, boring video.



Direct: https://youtu.be/pU29EoVpPE8
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March 12th, 2019 at 7:28:48 PM permalink
Here are the results for Bubble Burst mode. As expected, a guaranteed bubble is not worth as much, because the wins are halved compared to the total amount bet.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 75% 72% 149% 51% 34%
2 109% 121% 301% 74% 37%
3 109% 119% 297% 74% 36%
4 73% 69% 145% 49% 33%


Overall return = 85.26%
No guaranteed bubble return = 30.57%

I'm still double checking this, so don't take it to the bank.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
prozema
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March 12th, 2019 at 8:44:06 PM permalink
I guess as it turns out all I have to do is question the return on reel three and the game makes me a liar. I take it all back. Thank you variance gods.
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March 12th, 2019 at 9:12:05 PM permalink
Let me run this strategy up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

This is for Bubble Burst mode only. For a guaranteed bubble, count the number of points in the following table, by the bubble's position on the NEXT spin.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 1 1 2 0 0
2 2 2 2 1 0
3 2 2 2 1 0
4 1 2 2 0 0


With two or more points, bet. It should be noted that playing reel 2 row 4 is negative for the next spin, but it more than made up for on the next two spins, when it will be in rows 2 and 3. Thoughts?
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MaxPen
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March 12th, 2019 at 9:36:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me run this strategy up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

This is for Bubble Burst mode only. For a guaranteed bubble, count the number of points in the following table, by the bubble's position on the NEXT spin.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 1 1 2 0 0
2 2 2 2 1 0
3 2 2 2 1 0
4 1 2 2 0 0


With two or more points, bet. It should be noted that playing reel 2 row 4 is negative for the next spin, but it more than made up for on the next two spins, when it will be in rows 2 and 3. Thoughts?



That seems to fall inline with how alot of vultures have been playing it since it came out. Not sure why reel 1 row 4 would only have a 1 value though.
kuma
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March 12th, 2019 at 9:53:13 PM permalink
I have only been playing Reels 1 and 4 if bubbles line up in the same row at the same time (assuming no other bubbles on Reels 2 and 3). It looks like here you are suggesting a bubble on Reel 4 doesnít necessarily have to be on the same row as one on Reel 1, which is interesting.
prozema
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March 12th, 2019 at 10:15:13 PM permalink
Let me make an attempt at a simple strategy, for dummies (like me)... Any bubble in the first three columns is a "go" and you've got a positive game (although notability, not maximized)... Maybe on column 4 on non-bubble boost mode depending on your personal RTP requirements...

PS: I just learned something about bubble boost vs non bubble boost.
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