Lion's Share
Quote: WizardI just played the game 378 times yesterday. Of those times, I got the lion on the center payline four times on reel 1 and once each on reels 2 and 3.
I'll post all my results shortly, but based on my sampling and the 153 spins culled by JB, at the current meter of $2,340,744, the game has a return of 94.5%. I show the break-even meter to be $7,281,005.
Dangit! And you didn't win the money! I was so hoping to see that machine in someone I knew's living room! Keep trying, please.
Sincerely,
Leo
Quote: beachbumbabsDangit! And you didn't win the money! I was so hoping to see that machine in someone I knew's living room! Keep trying, please.
I was hoping to win the machine too. The money would have been the icing on the cake too.
Based on initial results, it is costing me 16.5 cents a spin to play the game with a full $3 bet each time. It would cost about 8 cents to play one coin at a time. It is hard to justify the time and expense on what looks like a negative game.
I'd be happy to accept data from anybody else who cares to play it.
I'll die of old age before Lionshare gets to 7 million as will anyone born today I'm guessing. I don't even see how the machine can last that long and will need some kind of a machine super surgeon to keep it working.
I've never been to Vegas, but it's a little shocking seeing how rarely the second and third reels show up for lions. Prophecy still predicts I'll win it, but zero plans to even go to Vegas, so can't figure it out. :)
Quote: onenickelmiracleIt's still a better return than Megabucks at 86%. Will look forward to the report and wanting to know what the estimated return is excluding the jackpot.
Very true about Megabucks. The jackpot contributes only 2.6% to the return. The probability of hitting it is only about 1 in 30 million. By comparison, the probability of hitting Megabucks is on in 50 million (source).
Quote:I'll die of old age before Lionshare gets to 7 million as will anyone born today I'm guessing.
It will probably hit before getting there, but depending on your age now, you may not live to see it. Let's assume it get played 3,000 a day. That would mean it would take 10,000 days to hit, on average. That equates to 27.4 years.
Maybe this is nothing, but I had a 5:00 appointment at the MGM and showed up at 4:30 and played it until 5:00. After I returned to play some more there was an attendant getting ready to close down the game. I asked if I could play it and she radioed to somebody, "A guest wants to play it." She then said back to me, "We were going to do some maintenance on it, but hold on, maybe we can wait until you're done." So I waited about about five minutes later somebody else came up and said I could play it.
It strikes me as odd that I would be sitting there taking notes as I played and then they want to shut the machine down as soon as I leave.
By the way, do you think the sample size is adequate for the Lion symbols? For example, if the Lion symbol had shown up between your spins and JB's spins on the second reel once, but probabilistically, it should have showed up twice, then what would the return be? What if it should have shown up twice on both the second AND third reel? I'm just asking hypothetically, if seeing either of those symbols on either reel is a 1:250 event, per reel, then it wouldn't be too far outside of expectations to have slightly more than 500 spins and only see it once per reel...
I've never played this machine before; it's just an old-school 3-reel slot, right?
As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and especially corrections.
Quote: AcesAndEightsWiz, assuming someone else wanted to donate some data to you, what exactly do you need? Exact symbols from each spin, or just a number of spin and the number of Lion symbols?
I'd like a count of how often each symbol was seen on each reel. Like how I categorized the data in my page on the game (see link above). Such data should differentiate when the Lion is on or off the center payline.
Quote:I've never played this machine before; it's just an old-school 3-reel slot, right?
Yup.
Quote: AyecarumbaIf you win, you get to keep the machine. Does that include the chip? What is the value of the machine?
The mgmlionsshare.com web site says that, "Rumor has it that the winner may get to keep the machine as well as the small fortune displayed above its reels." I'm sure it would include the chip because the machine won't work without it. The value is about $500 wholesale.
Quote: DRichI would be surprised if their house average was above $200 a day per machine.
I would be surprised if it was below that.
Quote: WizardThe mgmlionsshare.com web site says that, "Rumor has it that the winner may get to keep the machine as well as the small fortune displayed above its reels." I'm sure it would include the chip because the machine won't work without it. The value is about $500 wholesale.
I've asked a slot host at MGM about this, and she told me that the winner would, in fact, get to keep the machine.
Quote: WizardI would be surprised if it was below that.
Using the December numbers for Borgata, the busiest casino in AC, each Slot Machine averaged $318.10 a day on average for the month. Since Nevada does not release individual casino numbers, there is no way to compare, but I would also believe the $200 number is low.
Just to compare, the slowest casino in AC, Trump Plaza averaged $65.81 a day for December, but I am not sure if anyone even knows if they are still open.
http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/MGR2013/201312revenue.pdf
Quote: BozUsing the December numbers for Borgata, the busiest casino in AC, each Slot Machine averaged $318.10 a day on average for the month. Since Nevada does not release individual casino numbers, there is no way to compare, but I would also believe the $200 number is low.
Just to compare, the slowest casino in AC, Trump Plaza averaged $65.81 a day for December, but I am not sure if anyone even knows if they are still open.
http://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/MGR2013/201312revenue.pdf
I don't know if Trump knows they're open. My daughter bought a coffee at the Starbucks there the other day and the pimply faced kid wouldn't give her the Wi-Fi password. She got it from another worker but geez. I know it's a separate company but it reflects badly on Trump and sends the message that they just don't care.
Quote: WizardI would be surprised if it was below that.
If we had a way to verify it, I would wager on the under.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI am just repeating what has been on the forums, but the machine is said to be constantly moved around to different locations on the slot floor. This may be what was going on. Thanks for the response and the work.
I've heard this as well, but I just don't think it's true. I go to the MGM grand a fair bit and I'm pretty sure it was in the same place for at least a year (I haven't been in the past few months though).
Quote: onenickelmiracleI am just repeating what has been on the forums, but the machine is said to be constantly moved around to different locations on the slot floor.
Somebody told me that just yesterday. For those who don't know, it is currently just outside the high limit slots.
Quote: DRichIf we had a way to verify it, I would wager on the under.
You could easily be right. My statement was not based on much.
Quote: DRichIf we had a way to verify it, I would wager on the under.
Since data is lumped, not exact proof, but I would guess Wiz is barely right since MGM Grand may be an above average large strip casino. But it's close. Definitely can't verify a bet over it.
For the last 12 months at Strip Casinos > $72M annual revenue:
All Electronic Gaming Devices: 23 locations...34,668 units...$202.15 per unit per day...7.39% win
$1 EGDs only (excluding megabucks): 23 locations...2909 units...$246.10 per unit per day...6.66% win
Megabucks: 22 locations...164 units...$407.70 per unit per day...10.48% win
Another comparison for data sake two casinos nearest to where I currently live (Ameristar St. Charles, Hollywood St. Louis; #1 and #3 in MO respectively) for Nov. 2013.
All EGDs:
Ameristar: $250.95 per unit day...9.48% win
Hollywood: $243.17 per unit day...9.49% win
Quote: tringlomane
All Electronic Gaming Devices: 23 locations...34,668 units...$202.15 per unit per day...7.39% win
The reason I would still bet under is because of the number of machines they have. I believe they have more than any other Nevada casino which would hurt the win per unit numbers. In either case, it sounds like $200 is probably a good guess.
Quote: DRichQuote: tringlomane
All Electronic Gaming Devices: 23 locations...34,668 units...$202.15 per unit per day...7.39% win
The reason I would still bet under is because of the number of machines they have. I believe they have more than any other Nevada casino which would hurt the win per unit numbers. In either case, it sounds like $200 is probably a good guess.
Good point. That place is quite huge. But if it's below $200, it wouldn't be by too much. I just wish NV was a bit more transparent with gaming stats like MO, IL, PA, OH, NJ, etc...
Quote: WizardI'd like a count of how often each symbol was seen on each reel. Like how I categorized the data in my page on the game (see link above). Such data should differentiate when the Lion is on or off the center payline.
Cool, maybe I'll run some cash through it next time I'm in Vegas. I can handle the -EV if it's in the name of math.
Does being off-payline mean anything for non-Lion symbols? I don't know much about slot machines. My guess is that for the rest of the symbols, the machine only pays if they are on the payline. Is that correct?
Quote: AcesAndEightsCool, maybe I'll run some cash through it next time I'm in Vegas. I can handle the -EV if it's in the name of math.
Does being off-payline mean anything for non-Lion symbols? I don't know much about slot machines. My guess is that for the rest of the symbols, the machine only pays if they are on the payline. Is that correct?
Right. You only need to count the lions that are one notch off the payline since those are considered winning combinations. Everything else must be on the payline.
I won't spell out all the new results but here are the results of just the lions:
Reel 1: 4 on payline, 5 off
Reel 2: 2 on payline, 3 off
Reel 3: 0 on payline, 4 off
The results now show the game to have a return of 110.8%. However, I tend to think I've seen more than my fair share of lions. With the new data the return for 1 and 2 coins jumped to 102.6%, and I'm very sure it would be negative EV without the jackpot.
My next date with the machine will likely be Saturday. I'll try to get 500 more spins that day, if I have time.
Please visit my just updated page on Lion's Share for more information.
why are you indicating how many are off the payline. Unless I didn't understand what you mean by off.Quote: WizardI just played 201 more spins of Lion's Share this evening and the lions came in pretty good. I just updated my Lion's Share page to include the new data. I'm now up to 735 spins in the survey.
I won't spell out all the new results but here are the results of just the lions:
Reel 1: 4 on payline, 5 off
Reel 2: 2 on payline, 3 off
Reel 3: 0 on payline, 4 off
The results now show the game to have a return of 110.8%. However, I tend to think I've seen more than my fair share of lions. With the new data the return for 1 and 2 coins jumped to 102.6%, and I'm very sure it would be negative EV without the jackpot.
My next date with the machine will likely be Saturday. I'll try to get 500 more spins that day, if I have time.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat's the estimate on this machine if you didn't include the jackpot. This may be a case where it doesn't matter if you had a good bet because you're screwd if you dont hit it.
He currently has the jackpot value at 2.85% on the page.
At this point I feel like the base return is a bit high if I had to guess.
Quote: AxelWolfwhy are you indicating how many are off the payline. Unless I didn't understand what you mean by off.
I think if you read my page on Lion's Share all your questions will be answered.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI'm curious about your actual thoughts when playing the slot. Do you like playing or do you have to tell yourself it's for science? Do you get greedy hoping for some nice hits to get more data and the big one? Is it fun or unenjoyable or Boring? What would change if you hit the jackpot?
It is kind of boring and I only do it for the science. It is hard to play more than three hours at once.
What troubles me is I've seen the lion on the payline on reel 3 once only so far. I'd like to see it at least three times to have some confidence in the results.
Quote: WizardI think if you read my page on Lion's Share all your questions will be answered.
There are a couple of things that I want to point out:
1. I think you are underestimating the value of the players club card. You get both 0.33% in express comps and 0.33% in free play. Also, slot players get treated pretty well. 1000 or so spins in a day ($3000 coin-in) will probably get you a free room if you talk to a host.
2. I seriously doubt that this game is positive EV. You do mention that the sample size is small and it's probably within 5% of the number you mention, but I think that this could be stressed more... I would hate to see people flock to the MGM Grand and start dumping their money into this machine because "the Wizard said it was +EV" (you didn't say that, of course, but I could see how someone who isn't reading carefully might get that idea)
Guess who spotted me playing? No other than long-lost Konceptum kenarman! We had a nice chat and he give gave permission for me to post this photo.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI think you are underestimating the value of the players club card. You get both 0.33% in express comps and 0.33% in free play. Also, slot players get treated pretty well. 1000 or so spins in a day ($3000 coin-in) will probably get you a free room if you talk to a host.
I wasn't sure how it works now and thought it was 0.33% cash back or comps. I have updated my page based on your correction. Thank you.
Quote:I seriously doubt that this game is positive EV. You do mention that the sample size is small and it's probably within 5% of the number you mention, but I think that this could be stressed more... I would hate to see people flock to the MGM Grand and start dumping their money into this machine because "the Wizard said it was +EV" (you didn't say that, of course, but I could see how someone who isn't reading carefully might get that idea)
With the new higher return I can more confidently say it is plus EV. However, your point is well taken that the sample size is still small. I will load down the page with caveats.
Quote: sodawaterI really hope someone from this forum wins the jackpot and the machine.
If that happens, may the winner know that I could use a new car.
Quote: WizardWith the new higher return I can more confidently say it is plus EV. However, your point is well taken that the sample size is still small. I will load down the page with caveats.
I note that, if we assume that the lions show up on the payline 1 time in 256 for each reel (which is what I'd assumed after my earlier analysis based on my own play -- not that there's any reason to assume that my data is more accurate than yours) you have gotten more than your fair share of Lions on the payline -- you got one per reel per 196.75 spins.
Reducing the probability of hitting the jackpot to 1/256^3 reduces the return by 5% (!!) I can't fairly compute the affect on return of anything else effectively, because, obviously, more lions on the payline means less of something else on the payline. But, the lion is the most valuable symbol no matter what, so I'm sure that this would further reduce your return to below 100%.
Note that, if the probability of getting a Lion on the payline is 1/256, the probability of getting 24 or more Lions in 1574 spins (4722 reel results) is about 12%. So, really, I'm not sure how confident we can be about this. Your results would not be THAT lucky.
The lions on the payline are rare events, but they contribute a huge amount to the payout. I think that a lot more trials are required before we can be confident about the probability of getting a lion on the payline, and being slightly off on this probability has a large effect on the payout.
Unfortunately when I did something similar I wasn't willing to sit there with a pencil and paper and make it obvious what I was doing (I wasn't sure that it would be allowed), so I only kept track of the lions on the payline on each reel in my head -- I didn't have any data for any of the other symbols.
Quote: WizardI hit Lion's Share again today and the lions came in pretty good over my 332 spins, especially on the elusive reel 3. In the 1,242 previous spins I got the lion on the center payline on reel 3 once only. In the 332 spins I played today I saw it five times! It is almost like they put in a different EPROM chip. Assuming it is the same chip, the new results reflect a return of 106.2%! As always, check on my Deconstructing Lion's Share page for the latest.
Guess who spotted me playing? No other than long-lost Konceptum! We had a nice chat and he give gave permission for me to post this photo.
I wasn't sure how it works now and thought it was 0.33% cash back or comps. I have updated my page based on your correction. Thank you.
With the new higher return I can more confidently say it is plus EV. However, your point is well taken that the sample size is still small. I will load down the page with caveats.
If we know the reset, then it would be easy to calculate how many cycles the machine has been through, conditional on a hit probability. We can back out the probability that the machine would last this long without hitting starting in 1994 or whenever.
Quote: randompersonIf we know the reset, then it would be easy to calculate how many cycles the machine has been through, conditional on a hit probability. We can back out the probability that the machine would last this long without hitting starting in 1994 or whenever.
Doesn't that ignore short-coin play though?
I've heard rumors that people have hit it with only 1 or 2 coins bet (just rumors, though, of course -- they could be wrong)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDoesn't that ignore short-coin play though?
I've heard rumors that people have hit it with only 1 or 2 coins bet (just rumors, though, of course -- they could be wrong)
Good point, but at approximate answer would still be informative. Its a possible sanity check for other numbers.
Quote: WizardIf that happens, may the winner know that I could use a new car.
Trivia for you Wizard: If I hit the jackpot and buy you a car, what kind of car (make and model) would it be?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI note that, if we assume that the lions show up on the payline 1 time in 256 for each reel (which is what I'd assumed after my earlier analysis based on my own play -- not that there's any reason to assume that my data is more accurate than yours) you have gotten more than your fair share of Lions on the payline -- you got one per reel per 196.75 spins.
Good suggestion. If we assuming a lion probability of 1 in 256 on each reel, and other wise go by the proportions I observed, then the return table looks like this:
| Win | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Three Lions -- On Payline | 2,342,270 | 0.0000000596 | 0.046537 |
| Three Lions -- Off Payline | 10,000 | 0.0000031266 | 0.010422 |
| Three sevens | 300 | 0.0001038815 | 0.010388 |
| Three 3-bar | 150 | 0.0005567510 | 0.027838 |
| Three 2-bar | 60 | 0.0031857462 | 0.063715 |
| Three 1-bar | 30 | 0.0164658805 | 0.164659 |
| Any three bar | 15 | 0.1223593580 | 0.611797 |
| Any two lions | 15 | 0.0002982456 | 0.001491 |
| Any one lion | 6 | 0.0320465130 | 0.064093 |
| Total | 0.1750195621 | 1.000939 |
In other words, 100.1% return.
Quote:Note that, if the probability of getting a Lion on the payline is 1/256, the probability of getting 24 or more Lions in 1574 spins (4722 reel results) is about 12%. So, really, I'm not sure how confident we can be about this. Your results would not be THAT lucky.
Good point and good math. To elaborate, under your hypothesis I should have seen 18.33 payline lions and I actually saw 24. The probability of seeing this many or more is 11.6%.
Quote:The lions on the payline are rare events, but they contribute a huge amount to the payout. I think that a lot more trials are required before we can be confident about the probability of getting a lion on the payline, and being slightly off on this probability has a large effect on the payout.
Agreed. What I may do to save time is start only tracking lions. I think I have a sufficient sample size on all the other symbols. That will allow me to collect data a lot faster. I can track total play based on points earned.
Quote: djatcTrivia for you Wizard: If I hit the jackpot and buy you a car, what kind of car (make and model) would it be?
How about a Volvo V-60.
Quote: WizardIn other words, 100.1% return.
So this makes it a better bet that 9/6 JoB?? It hardly seems possible.
Good God! Did I just make a gambling post???
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI note that, if we assume that the lions show up on the payline 1 time in 256 for each reel (which is what I'd assumed after my earlier analysis based on my own play ...
May I ask how many spins were in your data and how many lions did you get exactly?
In the mid 1990's my company worked with Sigma to put out a wide area progressive game to compete with Megabucks (it was called Cool Millions). Their platform was limited to 256 virtual positions before they changed it for us.
Quote: WizardMay I ask how many spins were in your data and how many lions did you get exactly?
I tried to find this information. I remembered that I hadn't wanted to take notes while playing the game, so I just kept a mental tally of the number of lions on each reel (ie, remembered 3 numbers) and then used the number of points earned during the sessions to know how many spins I had made (1 spin = $3 coin-in = 1 slot pt).
I do know that I emailed myself the data occasionally (from my phone) so I looked through my email -- and I couldn't find it. I'll keep looking.
Also, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but, if you play for a while, the card readers sometimes stop telling you how many points you have earned during that session (some kind of software bug). Instead they just keep displaying your total over and over again. But, if you hit the "yes" button, it will ask you to enter your pin. If you then hit "no", it will go back to normal and give you your total points for that session after each spin. This is a useful trick if you're using your slot points per session to keep track of your total number of spins. Be careful of just using your total point balance before and after, since once you pull your card and put it back in, any slot point multiplier that you get (due to your tier level) will be applied.
