System for Holdem?

Could there be any kind of betting system or strategy for holdem to guarantee an edge?

The moniker "Holdem" could apply to a lot of different games but the short answer is "no". Because if such a system existed, we'd all be playing it, thereby nullifying its usefulness.

Know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em :)

The fact that there are bots playing online and winning money shows there is a profitable basic strategy in poker, at least at the lower minimum tables. However, one would need to interpret thousands of lines of computer code to understand it. I'm sure programmers could explain the gist of of its strategy, but they are probably are very tight-lipped about it.

Good poker strategy also requires the ability to randomize well, which human beings are notoriously bad at. For example, with a crappy hand you should bluff at least some of the time, but how do you make that decision on a hand by hand basis? That gives me a business idea, create a watch with a random number generator, for use at the tables.

Quote: Wizard

That gives me a business idea, create a watch with a random number generator, for use at the tables.

Already done.

It just has seconds alternately colored red and black, though, but your second hand is the ultimate randomizer.

Let me try and recall the exact brand and model. It's not a big brand, but a designer guy who does various slightly crazy watch face ideas, quartz inside, and costs a couple hundred.

Dan Harrington wrote about using your watch as a random number generator in his books. For example, in a situation where you would bluff 25% of the time, such as opening on the button, you would do so if the second hand was between 0 and 15 when you happen to look at it. You don't need a specially made watch for that.

Quote: Wizard

The fact that there are bots playing online and winning money shows there is a profitable basic strategy in poker, at least at the lower minimum tables. However, one would need to interpret thousands of lines of computer code to understand it. I'm sure programmers could explain the gist of of its strategy, but they are probably are very tight-lipped about it.

I'm not sure about how confidential that is -- there's a whole academic department at U of Alberta publishing papers on the topic, and several other universities are studying AI in the context of games. Here are just two:
Computer Poker Research Group at University of Alberta
Game AI Group at University of Auckland

I understand that a good poker strategy can be very complex. What I was more or less asking about was a "simple," or as much as could be expected, system that would mathematically yield even a small profit. An exaggerated example would be only playing AA and moving all-in every time. This would be impractical because the money won would not make up for the amount paid in blinds.

Although, that's actually pretty close to another example that comes from an old article in BLUFF Magazine:



Tell us about this system you’ve come up with.

I worked on this game theory, just for kicks. I worked out a guaranteed way to win $28 an hour in Vegas, which is a decent living for a lot of people, but it doesn’t really interest me much. But I needed to see if it would work.

There are so many maniacs at the casino. A lot of people watch TV and think they have figured out poker because they’ve watched it for an hour. They don’t realize it’s 12 hours of shooting and they’ve edited it down to an hour. All you see is bluffs gone bad and maniac moves that go well – and that’s not real poker.

So I worked it out with millions of simulations on the computer and then went and did it for a seven month period, five days a week, and it came out at $28.64 an hour. Here’s how it works. You play the low blind games. I would say the best ones to play are the $2/$5 games. In a low blind game, a bunch of chips is not strength, it’s vulnerability – unless you’re one of the best players around (and if you’re one of the best players around you wouldn’t be playing the $2/$5 games!). Too many people want to look at a flop and anybody playing the $2/$5 has only a certain level of ability. That means that their big chip stack in front of them, if they stay there long enough, is gonna get sucked out from under them.

What is the only move a pro would make if he was on a short stack? He would go all-in if he had A-A, K-K, Q-Q or A-K. So I’ve simplified the game down to one move, because that is the move the best pro in the world would make.

So, you buy in for $140 – let everyone else have the big stacks. You sit there and wait for one of those four hands. If you’ve got a maniac to your left, you limp in and let him raise it and go all-in when it comes back to you. You’re going to see one of those combos on average once in about 43 or 44 hands. So, say you’ve blinded down to about $120. If no one calls you when you go all in, you’ll have probably picked up about forty dollars. So now you’re at $160. Then you’ll blind down another $20 or so (your original buy-in), before you get a shot at it again. If someone does call you the first time, and you win, you’re at about $240 and you’re $100 ahead, so you cash out and put your name back on the list, or walk across the street to another casino and do the same thing.

It’s just money management. You cash out and buy back in for $140 and do the same thing again. It’s foolproof. It’s chump bait, because if you’re down to $140 and there are all these big stacks, and there’s already $60 in the pot, someone’s going to call you with a KJ suited or whatever.

Chris “Jesus” Ferguson – who’s a good friend of mine – took a dollar and turned it into $20,000 over a five-month period using my system – just for a lark in his spare time. Isn’t that funny? They’re a little tighter online than they are in Vegas, so what you want to do is play four screens at the same time, each with sixty dollars. Doing that will actually make you more money. That comes to $37 per hour and some change.

As the Wiz notes, there are bots that are quite variable in wagering regardless of the 2-card hand.

Outside of that play the top 4 dozen ranked pocket hands and fold the others, given the number of opponents. Even this is quite complex, as the Top 48 with 9 opponents is different than with 5 opponents.

GL n GG

Really an interesting thing to read here. Having a system for a holdem game would sure is kinda technical and it would really make things work out pretty well and it would be good. I just hoped that things would work out in this one for the long run.
____________________________
Pacific Poker

Quote: Wizard

The fact that there are bots playing online and winning money shows there is a profitable basic strategy in poker, at least at the lower minimum tables. However, one would need to interpret thousands of lines of computer code to understand it. I'm sure programmers could explain the gist of of its strategy, but they are probably are very tight-lipped about it.

Good poker strategy also requires the ability to randomize well, which human beings are notoriously bad at. For example, with a crappy hand you should bluff at least some of the time, but how do you make that decision on a hand by hand basis? That gives me a business idea, create a watch with a random number generator, for use at the tables.

I have a friend who always uses the 3 of Spades as his random bluff signal.

And what happens when your pocket aces is beat by someone who flops a set or 2 ride out a two pair hand.. though pocket aces is a very strong started hand... the probability of it winning everytime you go all in is got to be less than half. i cant count how many times my pocket aces been snaggled by someone holding a lower pair and makes his set... or pocket kings being sliced by a player holding an Ace and he pairs up...

Hell, ive had it wheremy Ace high flush got slammed on the river to a boat. so i dont really see a guarenteed $28 hour payout when loosing just once will take 5 hours to break even again

Quote: kauboj

And what happens when your pocket aces is beat by someone who flops a set or 2 ride out a two pair hand.. though pocket aces is a very strong started hand... the probability of it winning everytime you go all in is got to be less than half. i cant count how many times my pocket aces been snaggled by someone holding a lower pair and makes his set... or pocket kings being sliced by a player holding an Ace and he pairs up...

Hell, ive had it wheremy Ace high flush got slammed on the river to a boat. so i dont really see a guarenteed $28 hour payout when loosing just once will take 5 hours to break even again

Pocket Aces wins about 40% of the time on a ten hand table assuming all hands play to the river.

It's still a very safe play to shove pre-flop with rockets. If no one calls, you pick up the blinds. If someone calls, you are a massive favorite to win - 85/15 in head-to-head, or +0.7 EV. On a 10-hand table 40% win is EV of +3 (or 300% edge).

The problem is that you only get AA once in 221 hands, and that's 22 rounds of blinds, or 33 BB. Your win on a folded table ranges between 1.5 BB and 8.5 BB. Only a call will get you anything real.

Ok so 22 rounds of blind before you get pocket aces in a 2/5 game its thats 7*22 = 154 so you would need 294 buy in just to survive those blinds assuming you folded out on all them.

Lets say 25 hands an hour thats 9 hours.

lets assume your on the BB when you get AA and everyone calls in a 10 handed game so thats $50 in the pot when you go all in for an additional $130. pot is now $180, 1 person calls pot is 280. if you win you are at a net loss of $14 at $1.55 an hour

lets say you do this for 90 hours.. assuming you win 40% of the time loose 60% thats 6 losses at 294 each = $1764 and win the other 40% of the time gives you 4 wins at net loss of $64 for total loss of $1828 gives you a loss of $20.31 per hour

You didn't consider the other 3 all-in hands. The right analysis involves the probability of those hands winning -- granted less than for AA -- and the average pot size for those winners as well. Also, as described you'll need to play money management because part of the game is getting the calls with a shorter stack and then cashing out. A player with $500 is more likely to call a pre-flop all-in of $100 than a player with $100 is going to call a $500 all-in.

Quote:

lets assume your on the BB when you get AA and everyone calls in a 10 handed game so thats $50 in the pot when you go all in for an additional $130. pot is now $180, 1 person calls pot is 280.

What you put into the pot yourself doesn't count as net winnings. So the win is only $45 plus whatever is called.

If you get even one caller with a full stack, it's a net win. But the probability of getting called is small. It's pretty much zero if you've been playing dead-tight on a 2/5 table. Online $2/$5 tables are tight, the only hands that would call are aces and kings; the former will split the pot (barring a flush), the latter is as rare as your hand.
Jumping tables on each round will keep you without a table image, but there's an extra big blind you pay for each table jump on most sites.

FWIW I have shoved with aces at times only to be beaten by kings that caught a set. And with kings to be beaten by aces, it's not even rare, but you don't have a choice.

How did you come up with the figure that you win 40% of the time going all in with pocket aces against other 9 players (which are calling) ?

There are tables for this sort of thing.
Although actually it's not 40% for a full 10-hand. You only win 31% of the time with AA on a 10-hand table, and 50% on 6-hand.

And it implies that the opponents have random 2 cards. But if someone is going to call you, i dont think it will be any garbage hand.

Maybe everybody should write a list of hands , with which they would go all in(i mean in this thread)
Actually i dont think everybody should list the starting cards, the majority will think at the same cards as I would (i guess)

Quote: edward

And it implies that the opponents have random 2 cards. But if someone is going to call you, i dont think it will be any garbage hand.

Maybe everybody should write a list of hands , with which they would go all in(i mean in this thread)

The beauty of poker is that you do not have such an exact list. It will depend on your bankroll, your read on the other players, and whether you are choosing to use this hand as a 'bluff'. If you do the exact same thing every time with a defined hand, YOU will be the one other players get a read on and take advantage of. Knowing when not to go all in, and slow play instead, is one of the hallmarks of a good player.

Quote: SOOPOO

The beauty of poker is that you do not have such an exact list. It will depend on your bankroll, your read on the other players, and whether you are choosing to use this hand as a 'bluff'. If you do the exact same thing every time with a defined hand, YOU will be the one other players get a read on and take advantage of. Knowing when not to go all in, and slow play instead, is one of the hallmarks of a good player.

Of course, what i was writing was strictly related to the system presented. I didnt write it was good.

I think I read somewhere that you are a good poker player if you can read your opponents cards correctly.

Quote: edward

I think I read somewhere that you are a good poker player if you can read your opponents cards correctly.

Nope. It's being able to read your opponent. The cards are irrelevant.

By "read" I mean being able to accurately determine what he will do based upon your choice of actions.

For example, if you're in early position, and are planning on a check-raise, your read better be correctly stating that the other guy is going to bet.

---

To answer the question, there are NO two cards that I'm always going to go all-in with.

There are way too many factors involved.

Quote: SOOPOO

Knowing when not to go all in, and slow play instead, is one of the hallmarks of a good player.

Not to dispute the point, but the phrasing is somewhat misleading. Slowplay is an even more dangerous move than all-in.
With an all-in you are actually only risking, averaged over multiple occasions, no more than 1/4 of your stack - everyone folds the rest of the time.

With slowplay you are taking at least 2-3 times as much risk, more like 3/4 of your stack, because your reraise comes much later. You slowplay AK on KK9 flop, someone who wasn't even about to draw checks instead of folding, backdoors a double gutshot straight, you reraise him as planned and get burned. There are only a few hands you have to slowplay (as opposed to might slowplay to vary your game), like a made flush on the flop, as it's just too visible to play normally.