Odds of Hitting a Flush in Open Face Chinese?

jadklfj

The correct formula is explained in this 2+2 thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/need-some-chinese-poker-odds-help-paypal-monies-1285859/

Chances of completing a flush with 3 suited starters is:
1 - P(hit 0 outs) - P(hit one out)

There are 10 outs and 8 chances to hit:
1 - C(37,8)/C(47,8) - 10*C(37,7)/C(47,8) =~ 0.5498

And yeah, you can adjust this if you see your opponents first five cards. If all your outs are still there, then the chances of hitting would become:

1 - C(32,8)/C(42,8) - 10*C(32,7)/C(42,8) =~ 0.6257

If two outs are dead, then it becomes:

1 - C(34,8)/C(42,8) - 8*C(34,7)/C(42,8) =~ 0.4815

So generally hitting a flush in open-face Chinese with 3 suited starters:
1 - C(cards unknown - outs,8)/C(cards unknown,8) - outs*C(cards unknown - outs,7)/C(cards unknown,8)