2012 Kentucky Derby
April 7th, 2012 at 10:27:36 PM
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Who else is excited? I'm headed to Vegas for my first trip sans wife. Happen to have a futures ticket from January where I got 220:1 on I'll Have Another. After the Santa Anita today, I feel really great about that ticket. I also have 20:1 on Creative Cause, whom IHA beat by a nose. CC had the blinkers off for the first time, so I expect a stronger race from him on Cinco de Mayo. Really liked Gemologist in the Wood Memorial. I think I'll probably play these three quite a bit. I really stumbled onto that futures bet for I'll Have Another, and I'm so glad I did.
April 8th, 2012 at 5:28:13 PM
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Ill be in Vegas for the Friday and Saturday cards. Have gone the last 3 years, usually end up watching the big race in the room. Creative Cause is my horse right now, but Take Charge Indy seems to be getting it together and has gotten my attention.
April 8th, 2012 at 5:46:04 PM
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I will pass on Creative Cause as I had the winner in the Santa Anita Derby yesterday. The winner did not impress me either. I mean both those horses were game, and dueled from 1/8 pole to the wire. Nobody could be sure who won, even after the slo-mo replay.
What bothers me is a 42 to 1 shot had a 1/2 length lead at head of the stretch and it took the whole stretch for these 2 horse to finish a half- length ahead of the longshot.
I do not judge horses solely by the odds board, but do not think I saw 3 great thoroughbreds in that race.
Have not really handicapped the Derby yet, too early. But so far, do not see anybody beating Hansen.
What bothers me is a 42 to 1 shot had a 1/2 length lead at head of the stretch and it took the whole stretch for these 2 horse to finish a half- length ahead of the longshot.
I do not judge horses solely by the odds board, but do not think I saw 3 great thoroughbreds in that race.
Have not really handicapped the Derby yet, too early. But so far, do not see anybody beating Hansen.
April 9th, 2012 at 6:50:40 AM
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I'm not as excited about wins on California tracks, since they're all Polyturf, and from what I have seen, that does seem to make a difference.
April 9th, 2012 at 5:09:21 PM
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Don that is mostly true, that the California tracks are poly, except for one. Santa Anita is no longer poly, it went back to dirt in 2010.
As for it making a difference it is a different surface, and there are different types of "poly" track a more acurate way to say it is "synthetic" surface, but I too use the term poly all the time. There is the polytrack, tapeta, cushion track and the pro-ride those are all the types I know of. They all have different biases, and biases that can and will change. For instance when hollywood park first went to a synthetic track it was a stone closers paradise. It now plays almost as fair as dirt.
Now for a difference last years derby winner Animal Kingdom was a synthetic specialist never had run on dirt, then look what he did in the mud on the dirt. I threw him out because it is hard for horses to go synthetic to dirt. Its like going turf to dirt as the synthetic is more like turf than it is dirt, especially the tepeta.
Anyway just my thoughts on that.
Thanks for the opinion though!
As for it making a difference it is a different surface, and there are different types of "poly" track a more acurate way to say it is "synthetic" surface, but I too use the term poly all the time. There is the polytrack, tapeta, cushion track and the pro-ride those are all the types I know of. They all have different biases, and biases that can and will change. For instance when hollywood park first went to a synthetic track it was a stone closers paradise. It now plays almost as fair as dirt.
Now for a difference last years derby winner Animal Kingdom was a synthetic specialist never had run on dirt, then look what he did in the mud on the dirt. I threw him out because it is hard for horses to go synthetic to dirt. Its like going turf to dirt as the synthetic is more like turf than it is dirt, especially the tepeta.
Anyway just my thoughts on that.
Thanks for the opinion though!
April 9th, 2012 at 5:29:36 PM
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When we having it. It is never anything that I ever really plan for, however I usually always end up watching it on t.v. And I have picked at least the first second and third 5 times out of 12 and the forth and fifth more often actually. WOuld nice to finally start betting them ponys.
April 9th, 2012 at 7:09:20 PM
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If anyone wants to meet up for the race Im game. Ill be there. I will tell you this, you will be able to find me about 8 am Friday at the back of the Mirage book smoking a cigar waiting for the races to start.
April 10th, 2012 at 7:29:29 AM
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While I'll Have Another might not have what it takes at 1 1/4 with an entire field of good talent, I still fell really good about getting him at 220:1 in January...
April 10th, 2012 at 8:17:53 AM
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Anytime you can get those odds and you horse even starts in the Derby, damn right, you should really feel good.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:53:04 PM
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For those interested and have an IPad. They updated the Kentucky Derby App. Nice app.
Also I remember a few years back I had the Pamplemouse on a future at a big number, then Julio Canani blew him up.
220-1 ill be rooting for you come May 5th
Also I remember a few years back I had the Pamplemouse on a future at a big number, then Julio Canani blew him up.
220-1 ill be rooting for you come May 5th
April 10th, 2012 at 1:44:26 PM
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Thanks buzz and JW. I'm trying to decide where I want to play and watch the Derby. I'll be staying downtown at the Golden Gate. I know they don't have a sports book beyond maybe a kiosk of some kind. Any suggestions? If any of my futures tickets win, I'll have to head to the strip to collect, but I don't plan to go to the strip otherwise. I'll likely play the ponies a bit on Friday, at least on the Oaks.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:36:25 PM
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I dont really go downtown so I cant help you. BUT if you can find a small book Im guessing it will be fine, the big books seem to get the crowds. Thats why I start at the Mirage, when that gets too packed I head over to the Ellis Island to finish any plays I need to make. Plus it puts me real close to home in case I over do it on the Bud Lights.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:53:56 PM
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Quote: StingMeWhile I'll Have Another might not have what it takes at 1 1/4 with an entire field of good talent, I still fell really good about getting him at 220:1 in January...
You might dutch a few horses as will. Probably have to bet Hansen and a longshot like
Done Talking made a powerful argument in Saturday's Grade II $500,000 Illinois Derby.
Barging between horses down the Hawthorne Race Course stretch, his body talk convinced trainer Hamilton Smith that he belongs in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
April 10th, 2012 at 5:26:53 PM
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I watch horse racing constantly, and have been studying this hard for 3 months. There is no pick. Any horse starting can win. Except probably liasion, sabercat, done talking.
My pick that day (I'll be at the race!) will be completely dependant on odds. So many horses have a legitimate claim, so grab one at a good price and put it in some exotics. I'll have another at 220-1? I'd love that...
My pick that day (I'll be at the race!) will be completely dependant on odds. So many horses have a legitimate claim, so grab one at a good price and put it in some exotics. I'll have another at 220-1? I'd love that...
April 10th, 2012 at 5:39:54 PM
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Have you read Tom Ainslie and Betty Ledbetter's BODY LANGUAGE OF HORSES ? Would be invaluable on Derby Day, when so many horses leave their race in the paddock. I have a copy laying around somewhere, I can mail it to you if have not read it.
April 15th, 2012 at 8:57:49 AM
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Bodemeaister looked really good yesterday. Hanson doesnt look like he is going to make the 1 1/4. And Dullahan is a great close but will he find his way through all the derby traffic? Yesterday answered nothing for me.
April 26th, 2012 at 8:54:06 AM
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The Derby looks to be tough to figure this year. I think there really is no clear favorite. I do like Bodemeister, Dullahan, Gemologist, Creative Cause, and of course I'll Have Another. I'm not real big on Hansen at this point, but I wouldn't put it past him to rebound for the roses. Decisions, decisions!
April 26th, 2012 at 10:31:33 AM
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Still waiting till post positions and drawn, workouts, etc. But it is a tuff field with no standout. Hansen will not get a chance to relax, so he's out.
I can not say the same for Gemologist. He's undefeated, rated well in the Wood, and dud in when challenged at the end.
I can not say the same for Gemologist. He's undefeated, rated well in the Wood, and dud in when challenged at the end.
April 26th, 2012 at 10:43:47 AM
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Gemologist beat Alpha, and that's it in the Wood. And Alpha has beat no one. Gemologist is probably the big wildcard in the race. I'm probably most worried about him beating me.
My 3 picks as of now are:
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best
Went the Day Well
If one of them has a bad post position, I might move Gemologist into one of those spots.
My 3 picks as of now are:
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best
Went the Day Well
If one of them has a bad post position, I might move Gemologist into one of those spots.
April 26th, 2012 at 5:16:36 PM
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Daddy Nose Best, I cannot get away from this horse. I do not like him AT ALL. But everyone I ask "who you got in the Derby?" Gives me him. Granted everyone I have asked does not follow horses, instead they "like" the name. Fins I imagine you play the ponies and like the horse. I might play $100 across because he is the name I hear all day long.
BUT I am with you, LOVE Creative Cause.
Im taking my lady to Carnevino on the 4th. Where should I take her after Creative Cause walks in the Derby? Probably wont matter as I will be walking 3 inches taller ala Trotter from Let it Ride LOL.
BUT I am with you, LOVE Creative Cause.
Im taking my lady to Carnevino on the 4th. Where should I take her after Creative Cause walks in the Derby? Probably wont matter as I will be walking 3 inches taller ala Trotter from Let it Ride LOL.
April 26th, 2012 at 5:25:17 PM
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How can you be in love with a horse who took the last eight of a mile to make up a half length on the runner up. ?
To say nothing of the fact that it took the 1st and 2nd place horses the entire stretch to finish a length ahead of
a 42 to 1 ,who had only a half-length lead entering the stretch. I will take even money Creative Cause does not finish
1, 2, 3 .....
To say nothing of the fact that it took the 1st and 2nd place horses the entire stretch to finish a length ahead of
a 42 to 1 ,who had only a half-length lead entering the stretch. I will take even money Creative Cause does not finish
1, 2, 3 .....
April 26th, 2012 at 5:25:29 PM
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How can you be in love with a horse who took the last eight of a mile to make up a half length on the runner up. ?
To say nothing of the fact that it took the 1st and 2nd place horses the entire stretch to finish a length ahead of
a 42 to 1 ,who had only a half-length lead entering the stretch. I will take even money Creative Cause does not finish
1, 2, 3 .....
To say nothing of the fact that it took the 1st and 2nd place horses the entire stretch to finish a length ahead of
a 42 to 1 ,who had only a half-length lead entering the stretch. I will take even money Creative Cause does not finish
1, 2, 3 .....
April 26th, 2012 at 5:32:07 PM
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Buzz, I respect you opinion.
First of all Creative Cause has finished in the money every start he has ever had.
Second please go look at all of the starters in the BC Juvinile race, remember he finished 3rd in that race, and Hanson wont get the distance, and Union Rags hasnt improved SO much as a 3 year old.
3rd, I believe that Creative Cause LOVES compitition, and is bread for the distance, he will have plenty of horses to pass in the stretch run, and he has the experience to get it done.
Of course, IMO
First of all Creative Cause has finished in the money every start he has ever had.
Second please go look at all of the starters in the BC Juvinile race, remember he finished 3rd in that race, and Hanson wont get the distance, and Union Rags hasnt improved SO much as a 3 year old.
3rd, I believe that Creative Cause LOVES compitition, and is bread for the distance, he will have plenty of horses to pass in the stretch run, and he has the experience to get it done.
Of course, IMO
April 26th, 2012 at 5:36:09 PM
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" Gemologist beat Alpha, and that's it in the Wood. And Alpha has beat no one. Gemologist is probably the big wildcard in the race. I'm probably most worried about him beating me. "
Apha won both the Count Fleet and Withers. Gemologist won the Woof after a 4 and 1/2 Month layoff. Gemologist's race before that ,he won a G! Kentucky Jockey Club race at some little track called Churchill Downs.
A fresh horse, a GI win at Churchill, might just be the ticket this year !
Apha won both the Count Fleet and Withers. Gemologist won the Woof after a 4 and 1/2 Month layoff. Gemologist's race before that ,he won a G! Kentucky Jockey Club race at some little track called Churchill Downs.
A fresh horse, a GI win at Churchill, might just be the ticket this year !
April 26th, 2012 at 5:45:06 PM
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So I take it you like Gemologist?
He is good, but he wont win, I would make a wager that CC finishes in front of Gem
He is good, but he wont win, I would make a wager that CC finishes in front of Gem
April 26th, 2012 at 5:46:39 PM
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Name it ! CC is just another California horse with no real edge, even there !
April 26th, 2012 at 5:54:11 PM
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"CC is just another California horse with no real edge"
Most years I would agree with you, BUT CC has ran on the churchill dirt, been running on the dirt at SA. He likes the dirt and can get the distance.
2 real wild cards with me as follows, just worked at "pollywood" could mean nothing, but still Poly. Harrington, he is a fabulous sprint trainer, this distance not so much. BUTthis horse is too good.
As for "Name it!" Im not sure if wagers are allowed and do not want to break any rules, but how about a nice bottle of wine/scotch/box of cigars. Or a plain old beer my friend.
Me im a beer and cigar type of guy.
Most years I would agree with you, BUT CC has ran on the churchill dirt, been running on the dirt at SA. He likes the dirt and can get the distance.
2 real wild cards with me as follows, just worked at "pollywood" could mean nothing, but still Poly. Harrington, he is a fabulous sprint trainer, this distance not so much. BUTthis horse is too good.
As for "Name it!" Im not sure if wagers are allowed and do not want to break any rules, but how about a nice bottle of wine/scotch/box of cigars. Or a plain old beer my friend.
Me im a beer and cigar type of guy.
April 26th, 2012 at 5:54:23 PM
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"CC is just another California horse with no real edge"
Most years I would agree with you, BUT CC has ran on the churchill dirt, been running on the dirt at SA. He likes the dirt and can get the distance.
2 real wild cards with me as follows, just worked at "pollywood" could mean nothing, but still Poly. Harrington, he is a fabulous sprint trainer, this distance not so much. BUTthis horse is too good.
As for "Name it!" Im not sure if wagers are allowed and do not want to break any rules, but how about a nice bottle of wine/scotch/box of cigars. Or a plain old beer my friend.
Me im a beer and cigar type of guy.
Most years I would agree with you, BUT CC has ran on the churchill dirt, been running on the dirt at SA. He likes the dirt and can get the distance.
2 real wild cards with me as follows, just worked at "pollywood" could mean nothing, but still Poly. Harrington, he is a fabulous sprint trainer, this distance not so much. BUTthis horse is too good.
As for "Name it!" Im not sure if wagers are allowed and do not want to break any rules, but how about a nice bottle of wine/scotch/box of cigars. Or a plain old beer my friend.
Me im a beer and cigar type of guy.
April 26th, 2012 at 6:14:23 PM
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A beer and a cigar it is. I am a WC Fields sort of guy .
W. C. Fields I never smoked a cigar in my life until I was nine.
W. C. Fields I never smoked a cigar in my life until I was nine.
April 26th, 2012 at 6:48:53 PM
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Ill PM you when the race is over to get your address if needed.
BTW Im a Colorado boy myself, grew up in Colorado Springs. Now Im an Arizona boy, being retired, it looks like this is where you should be.
BTW Im a Colorado boy myself, grew up in Colorado Springs. Now Im an Arizona boy, being retired, it looks like this is where you should be.
April 26th, 2012 at 6:50:52 PM
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8 grand-daughters here in Grand junction. I am so trapped. LOL
April 26th, 2012 at 6:53:13 PM
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Well at least online horse playing is legal there!, It is a felony in AZ, what a joke, stupid natives and the law makers afraid of losing there casino money. Its a joke, but a whole different topic.
April 26th, 2012 at 6:59:02 PM
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As a kid I often went to the races with my Dad, Loved the half mile circuit in Maryland. Timonium, Havre De grace, Belair, and Hagerstown. Bowie is gone and so is Laurel. And the International Race. Only time I bet on a horse just because how he looked in post parade was Bald Eagle. He just looked so superior to all the other horses.
April 30th, 2012 at 10:56:05 AM
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So I've decided to add Gemologist to my Top 4:
Creative Cause
Went the Day Well
Daddy Nose Best
Gemologist
My Next 4 are:
Bodemeister
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
Mark Valeski
We'll see how the post position draw shakes out.
Creative Cause
Went the Day Well
Daddy Nose Best
Gemologist
My Next 4 are:
Bodemeister
Dullahan
Take Charge Indy
Mark Valeski
We'll see how the post position draw shakes out.
April 30th, 2012 at 9:05:27 PM
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Less than a week away. Been looking at video which may have been a mistake as now I am even MORE confused.
Buzz watched the Sunland, not impressed by Daddy Nose Best. Super hot fractions, just got up at the wire..
Buzz watched the Sunland, not impressed by Daddy Nose Best. Super hot fractions, just got up at the wire..
May 2nd, 2012 at 4:12:28 PM
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Post positions are up, any changes for anyone? Take Charge Indy is looking good close to the rail like Borel Likes to ride.
Im still keying the 8 Creative Cause, going to work on building my ticket tonight.
Im still keying the 8 Creative Cause, going to work on building my ticket tonight.
May 2nd, 2012 at 8:09:40 PM
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My plane to Vegas leaves in less than 24 hours. I'm very excited about the trip and the race. I'm disappointed my 225-1 futures colt drew the 19 spot. After studying this thing quite a bit, I'm going to play 3, 4, 6 over 3, 4, 6, 8, over 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 15. I'll probably play a few exactas as well.
May 2nd, 2012 at 8:15:33 PM
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In almost exactly 24 hours I will be pulling up to valet at the Platinum Hotel and Spa. I am pumped. first ticket for me is 8/3,5,10/3,4,5,6,7,10,15.
May 3rd, 2012 at 1:30:15 PM
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Quote: JW17In almost exactly 24 hours I will be pulling up to valet at the Platinum Hotel and Spa. I am pumped. first ticket for me is 8/3,5,10/3,4,5,6,7,10,15.
I hope you remember to check to see that they don't charge you for 8/3/3, 8/5/5, and 8/10/10. Or am I reading this wrong?
(Speaking of 3/3, is the "no coupled horses in the Derby" (i.e. 1/1A) rule a good thing or not?)
Current weather forecast: 40-50% chance of showers/thunderstorms starting about noon Friday and ending around post time.
May 3rd, 2012 at 2:05:22 PM
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The trifecta will be Place) Valentine, Show) Epitaph, Win) Paul Revere
I got the haws right heeeeea!
I got the haws right heeeeea!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
May 3rd, 2012 at 5:28:46 PM
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I am taking Creative Cause and Gemologist on top of several others for my exacta. Of course, I have never picked a derby winner and have been betting it since 1979, so feel free to toss my picks hehe
May 5th, 2012 at 9:43:59 AM
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Not knowing a horse from a pig.............my crystal balls say Union Rags.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 5th, 2012 at 11:20:30 AM
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Since I can barely tolerate Mint Juleps, I'll be having the Rachel Maddow recommended Stinger instead. And after I have the first, them I'll Have Another.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
May 5th, 2012 at 1:49:49 PM
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Creative Cause was 1/2 length behind a 42-1 pace setter in the SA Derby at the stretch call. He finished 1/2 length ahead of the
pace setter. Sure not my kind of horse for a Mile and 1/4. Taking a shot on Gemologist. He has reached the wire first every time so far.
I know I know, who has he beat? Not his fault nobody showed up for the Wood Memorial.
pace setter. Sure not my kind of horse for a Mile and 1/4. Taking a shot on Gemologist. He has reached the wire first every time so far.
I know I know, who has he beat? Not his fault nobody showed up for the Wood Memorial.
May 5th, 2012 at 2:45:28 PM
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If I had to pick....3-4-15. Good as anything else I guess. I always like Borel in big races....not that it matters what I think.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
May 5th, 2012 at 3:35:40 PM
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I'll Have Another!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
May 5th, 2012 at 3:42:40 PM
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Quote: DeMangoI'll Have Another!
Mario Gutierrez, the 25-year-old native of Veracruz, Mexico is the jockey in his first KD race.
May 5th, 2012 at 4:17:57 PM
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Quote: StingMeWhile I'll Have Another might not have what it takes at 1 1/4 with an entire field of good talent, I still fell really good about getting him at 220:1 in January...
My long lost cousin StingMe! You don't know me...and I have a feeling you're going to keep it that way.
May 5th, 2012 at 4:53:42 PM
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I freaking win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Best day EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????
May 5th, 2012 at 5:33:59 PM
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Congrats StingMe! Thats incredible. I can't pick a horse on the day of the race let alone 5 months ahead of time. Congratulations!
