pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 24th, 2012 at 7:30:27 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard's Oscar bets last year


In 2011 the Wizard:

Bet $21,635 on these three sure things to win $588.09
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Best actor -- Colin Firth

Bet $19,322.50 on these three almost sure things to win $2,250
Best actress -- Natalie Portman
Best Visual Effects - Inception
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale

Bet $8,055 on these two likely outcomes to win $1,850
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Picture - The King's Speech

Bet $1,837.50 on these four technical awards to win $300
Best Sound Editing - Inception
Best Sound Mixing - Inception
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Make Up - The Wolfman

Until finally missing on the Best Cinematographer Award and losing $275. It was the bet with the highest payback.



Odds were initial ones set in Britain

Best Picture
The Artist - Bet $7 to win $2
The Descendants - Bet $2 to win $7
all 8 other nominations are considered long shots

Best Actor
George Clooney - Bet $9 to win $4
Jean Dujardin - Bet $4 to win $7
others are long shots

Best Actress
Meryl Streep - Bet $15 to win $8
Heavy favorite: Second and Third place are 3:1
Meryl has not won in 28 years, this is her 13th nomination in a row without winning and 4th out of the last 5 years. It is also her 17th nomination overall.

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer - Bet $12 to win $1
Plummer is overwhelming favorite partly because he was ignored for over 50 years; partly because one 'gay' film must win a major award

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer - Bet $8 to win $1
heavily favored for her role in The Help




IMHO, the only questionable choice will be Meryl Streep. Bad feelings about the movie story and direction may accumulate and obscure her acting role. The movie received no other nominations except for "Best Makeup".


The Fall of a Dynasty The Pixar film "Cars 2" didn't even rate a nomination for Animated Feature Film. For the first time in years this category is questionable with two relatively unknown films and two sequels.
"A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots" Chris Miller
"Rango" Gore Verbinski
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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January 24th, 2012 at 10:41:05 AM permalink
Where does one place these bets? Just curious.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2012 at 11:44:48 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Where does one place these bets? Just curious.



I use Pinnacle and Bodog.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 25th, 2012 at 6:40:09 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I use Pinnacle and Bodog.



The betting odds at Pinnacle are similar to the British ones I gave above, but there are some additional bets. For animated feature it is simply a bet if Rango will win or lose.

Christopher Plummer is bet $16 to win $1 on Pinnacle. That seems to be this years sure winner.


I can't find them on Bovada. Maybe they aren't posted yet.
Nareed
Nareed
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January 25th, 2012 at 7:50:28 AM permalink
This year is different, for me. Not only did I not see any of those movies (last movie I saw in a theater was The Dark Knight), I wasn't even aware of most of them.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 25th, 2012 at 8:16:23 AM permalink
Here are the Pinnacle odds as of Jan 26:

Best Actor: George Clooney The Descendants -400
Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -190
Best Animated Feature: Rango -380
BEST DIRECTOR: Michel Hazanavicius -145
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449
Best Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER: -1600
Best Supporting Actress: OCTAVIA SPENCER -900
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 25th, 2012 at 8:44:57 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

This year is different, for me. Not only did I not see any of those movies (last movie I saw in a theater was The Dark Knight), I wasn't even aware of most of them.



The Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.

The top 30 movies account for roughly half the box office tickets sold for the year in the USA.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 25th, 2012 at 12:34:42 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

The Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.


The initial change from 5 to 10 was made last year.

This year, the rules were changed again - when someone makes their nominations for Best Picture, they list up to ten films in preference order, and if between five and ten films are ranked #1 by at least 5% of the voters (which is what happened this year), those are the nominees (which is why there are nine of them).
Nareed
Nareed
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January 25th, 2012 at 12:48:04 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

The Academy thought by increasing the number of nominations from 5 to 10 that they would get more mainstream movies nominated. But only 1 out of the 10 was in the top 40.



That doesn't change three things:

1) I haven't seen a new movie in years.

2) One you've seen the arrivals, the rest of the broadcast is superflous (unless, I suppose, you made bets and live near a bridge)

3) This is the same "Academy" that did NOT give an award for best movie to "Citizen Kane"

BTW: :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 25th, 2012 at 3:47:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Best Actress: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady -190
BEST PICTURE: The Artist -449



It will be interesting to see how much you wager on these two options.

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