Poll

1 vote (3.44%)
2 votes (6.89%)
3 votes (10.34%)
4 votes (13.79%)
2 votes (6.89%)
6 votes (20.68%)
5 votes (17.24%)
1 vote (3.44%)
16 votes (55.17%)
3 votes (10.34%)

29 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 1:32:33 PM permalink


Yesterday I played Keno Explosion to gather information for an analysis. Here are is an executive summary of the rules.

1. The game selects three numbers to place with bombs among those not chosen by the player.
2. If the ball draw hits a bomb, then it will explode into 1 to 3 fragments.
3. Fragments may only hit the 57 numbers that were not in the ball draw nor marked by a bomb.
4. If a number picked by the player is hit by a fragment, it shall count as a catch.

In a small sampling, I determined the average number of fragments per bomb is about 1.85.

However, the interesting thing is bombs seemed to be going off an unusually high number of games. In particular all three bombs. In 55 games I recorded, 7 resulted in all three bombs exploding. If the game followed natural odds, the probability of catching all three bombs would be 1.39%. The expected number of games to catch all three bombs in 55 games played would be 0.763. The probability of catching all 3 bombs 7 or more times in 55 games is 1 in 89,202.

I'd like to emphasize that if this game is gaffed, it is done so in the player's favor. A simulation shows that if the game followed natural odds, the return would be only 82.5%. On the same machine and denom, other keno games were set to 89.5%.

I document all this more carefully in a new page on Keno Explosion. Before I announce this page officially, I welcome all comments.

The question for the poll is do you think the game is gaffed and does it bother you?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DRich
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 2:16:36 PM permalink
I hate that you use the word gaffed. Without knowing the algorithm and the rules is it really gaffed which I interpret as cheating ? My guess is that it is not statistically probable based on your assumptions which may or may not be correct.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Wizard
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 2:25:33 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I hate that you use the word gaffed. Without knowing the algorithm and the rules is it really gaffed which I interpret as cheating ? My guess is that it is not statistically probable based on your assumptions which may or may not be correct.



If I wanted a stronger word, I would have said "cheat." I mean it in the same way an electronic or digital prize wheel might not land on the jackpot slice as much as slices with a lower prize. In other words, something that is technically legal, but still deceptive.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
billryan
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 3:55:35 PM permalink
Is 55 games enough to even begin to analyze a new game?
billryan
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May 1st, 2021 at 3:57:39 PM permalink
Is 55 games enough to even begin to analyze a new game?
Mission146
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May 1st, 2021 at 3:58:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Is 55 games enough to even begin to analyze a new game?



Sure. Zero games is enough to analyze most keno games that operate by way of a draw that corresponds to the random probabilities. You just need to know the paytable and free games rules. It used to be you could take for granted that all numbers picked are random.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 4:05:51 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Is 55 games enough to even begin to analyze a new game?



If you flipped a coin 55 times and it was tails for all of them, would you be suspicious or would you need to flip it more?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 4:50:43 PM permalink
Is MultiStrike Poker considered "gaffed" since the Free Ride card shows up more than 1/53 of the time? I would consider Keno Explosion the same way.

There is a YouTube video of someone playing it at Wynn: 38 plays has 19 0s, 3 1s, 9 2s, and 7 3s.

Perhaps hidden somewhere in the help screens is the probability of getting particular numbers of bombs hit? (Don't MultiStrike Poker machines usually say what the probability of a Free Ride is in their help screens?)
onenickelmiracle
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 4:54:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If I wanted a stronger word, I would have said "cheat." I mean it in the same way an electronic or digital prize wheel might not land on the jackpot slice as much as slices with a lower prize. In other words, something that is technically legal, but still deceptive.

Most people call it rigged. Look in slots forum, I posted about a rigged slot. Either I'm the unluckiest and luckiest or it is rigged. If you're playing pool with someone and they let you win for $10, then hustle you down the line $1000, being rigged is another word for hustled. Of course maybe your keno game is rigged in your favor, but what if there was another version rigged the other way, or one people can't predict so easily.
billryan
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Mission146
May 1st, 2021 at 4:59:50 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

If you flipped a coin 55 times and it was tails for all of them, would you be suspicious or would you need to flip it more?



If someone came on and said they played 55 hands of BJ and didn't get a single BJ, would you say the game was gaffed or tell them they needed a few thousand more hands to decide? How is this any different?

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