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ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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November 6th, 2021 at 11:47:13 AM permalink
NBC Sports Network was just discussing that BC Juvenile Turf incident - and how a significant number of bettors were burned by the 1 being scratched, so their Pick 3/4/5 bets were transferred to the opening line favorite. A couple of the talking heads suggested changing the rules for this sort of thing, but to what? I vaguely remember when the Pick 6 started in California, there was a separate betting pool for situations where a horse was scratched, although this was before carryovers (every day's Pick Six pool went 75% to whoever picked the most winners and 25% to the second-most).

BTW, the closest thing I could find to this situation in the California Horse Racing Board rules, which are in effect at Del Mar, is rule 1974(b):
"If a horse is removed from the wagering pool due to a totalizator error, or due to any other error, and neither the trainer nor the owner is at fault, the horse shall start in the race as a non-wagering interest for the purse only and shall be disregarded for pari-mutuel purposes."
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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November 6th, 2021 at 2:04:50 PM permalink
I first heard about this on the live coverage on UK (from NBC) this evening and then saw the article: https://www.racingpost.com/news/breeders-cup-juvenile-turf-1-2-paid-out-as-winners-after-pre-race-debacle/520526
UK bookies realise the goodwill that can be got from doing the right thing, even if it costs them money; so many paid out on both results, some even didn't apply Rule4 (a rule that applies to pay-outs on board or SP prices when horse(s) are withdrawn before a new market is formed).
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 6th, 2021 at 2:53:22 PM permalink
__________


just became aware of an astonishing stat

favorites across all of thoroughbred racing win just about 33% of the time

but the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies favorites, with the win yesterday, have now won 19 of 38 times___________50%

that's really remarkable - especially considering that you would expect 2 year olds to be less predictable than the older horses


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"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 7th, 2021 at 1:23:12 PM permalink
___________


𝑬𝑿𝑨𝑪𝑻𝑨 𝑶𝑽𝑬𝑹𝑳𝑨𝒀


it's been my admittedly unscientific but nonetheless compelling (to me) observation/speculation that exacta payouts on the low odds horses are often very generous

the accepted way to calculate a fair exacta payout after the takeout is considered is this:

(odds on the winning horse) times (odds on the 2nd place finisher + 1)______this will give you a fair payout on a $1.00 bet after the takeout

throughout racing, in the long run, the first or 2nd fave wins about 55% of all races

here is a look at some $2.00 exacta payouts at Churchill from yesterday:

please note that as far as I know all tracks will allow a $1.00 exacta bet as long as it is a box or wheel - unlike win bets

.


Race 2_________2.50/1.40__________fair payout__________12.00__________actual payout_________23.40

Race 4_________2.00/2.30__________fair payout__________13.20__________actual payout_________20.60

Race 10________3.70/2.60__________fair payout__________ 26.64__________actual payout_________37.60


.
why does this happen?
because typical horseplayers are longshot lovers
they overbet the shots causing them to get less than a fair payout on them_________and underbet the low odds horses causing them to get more than a fair payout


here are 2 payouts from Churchill where longshots came in the 1st and 2nd positions
.


11/6____Race 5__________7.40/14.10___________fair payout___________217.44___________actual payout__________125.00

11/5____Race 8__________21.10/7.70___________fair payout___________367.14___________actual payout__________288.20


actually, horses priced at 7.40 and 7.70 are not true longshots
generally longshots are considered to be horses priced at 10/1 or more

I didn't want to spend a lot of time looking for that - it doesn't happen too often
but in those instances when it does happen - the payouts are usually even worse than shown


of course, when a longshot lover gets a $288 payout for a $2.00 bet he's hardly going to care if it's short of what would be fair

but he's never ever going to be a long run winner playing that way

all of this is considering that no handicapping at all is done

if a player is an excellent handicapper than these longshot payouts may be more than fair

if he's a poor handicapper - which is often the case - he's really going to get creamed in the long run


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 7th, 2021 at 2:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________


just became aware of an astonishing stat

favorites across all of thoroughbred racing win just about 33% of the time

but the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies favorites, with the win yesterday, have now won 19 of 38 times___________50%

that's really remarkable - especially considering that you would expect 2 year olds to be less predictable than the older horses


.
link to original post



There might be SOMETHING there, but a sample size of 38 is going to have an awful lot of noise.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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November 7th, 2021 at 2:57:57 PM permalink
___________


a further observation/speculation on the exacta pools re the big tracks only
I don't trust the little tracks

those that bet NYRA (Belmont, Saratoga and Aqueduct) are sharper than those that bet in the Midwest/South pools - Churchill and Keeneland

although anyone can bet anywhere due to technology - still I believe there are different characters to the different locales

I couldn't find anything this extreme at Belmont - but I could easily find it at Churchill

I believe that NYRA bettors don't fall for the longshot sucker bets anywhere near as much as they do at Churchill and Keeneland

CA (Santa Anita & Del Mar) seems to me to be in between the 2 - but IMHO the NYRA pools are the hardest to beat

I don't consider the Gulfstream bettors to be as sharp as NYRA bettors - but their pools are hard to beat too


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 27th, 2021 at 3:01:47 AM permalink
__________


on another forum there is a guy who has been crunching tons of racing data for almost 20 years
something like 95% of his crunches show a loss
maybe 3% show breaking even
there is one where he recently posted results of 500 races that shows around a 14.5% profit

these types of bets don't happen often
they are win bets on horses going off at less than 1/2 - if it was a money line NFL bet that would mean less than -200

this happens because the long shot lovers get excited when a horse is bet down that low - the odds on all of the others rise tremendously

I play to scan the races and whenever I see a fave bet way down below 1/2 I will make a win bet doing no handicapping at all

this guy is kind of weird - he doesn't bet - he just crunches data - but I trust him - his data seems realistic - I've read this before about horses bet way down - but I never before seen a post of data such as this

a bet that pays so little is a kind of bet many gamblers, including me, hate
but I will hold my nose and make it anyway


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 7th, 2021 at 2:45:34 AM permalink
____________


Medina Spirit, the disputed KY Derby winner died suddenly Monday after a workout

a cardiac event is the suspected cause of death

a full necropsy will be conducted - there is a great deal of suspicion surrounding this horse

he was a tough, game horse - it wasn't his fault that his trainer messed with him

he finished 1st or 2nd in in 9 out of 10 races - all but one was a high grade stakes race


.

.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/12/06/medina-spirit-horse-death/


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 2nd, 2022 at 1:51:42 AM permalink
_____________


a new movie about racing - "Jockey" - is getting rave reviews

the lead actor, Clifton Collins, worked as a grunt at the track to get the respect of riders involved in the moviemaking

.



.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 4th, 2022 at 8:41:35 AM permalink
____________


Bob Baffert, the disgraced trainer of the Derby winner found with illegal drugs in his system is now saying 𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙤𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 to whoever put illegal drugs into the horses under his care

sounds like he wants to blame a groom for it - or something like that

the link details some of the illegal drugs associated with this bad actor who needs to be kicked out of racing completely

the guy is totally disgusting - makes me want to puke
.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/nyra-adds-to-baffert-files-trainer-said-someone-gave-bute-to-his-horses-would-offer-reward-to-solve-case/


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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