The never-ending horse thread

Yeah i know SISSY is a personal insult, even when true . But on my way out anyway. Love ya Babs, sorry alimony check will be late this month

Hell, I dont agree with Babs suspension of Nathan but I would NEVER question her integrity as a moderaor... NEVER

GSIYH APIDOYE

Was some other result expected? For some reason this time when using banned identity #12,687 or whatever it is now? Is there eventually some number of repetitions when it ever dawns on the person doing it that something is seriously wrong with someone doing that?

Duly noted that [teal - EDIT] real men should deal with things by threatening to beat each other up, or perhaps by doing so. Unfortunately I never was taught or learned to aspire to that, and I'm getting a bit too old to start getting that way now.

Personally I'm not at all interested in how many times someone clicks on this thread, the creation of which was a stupid mistake, obviously put in the wrong place by someone who has no real interest in the subject in a section where it will not usually be found by someone who is looking for the subject. IMO it's unfortunate, but here it is, so be it.

EDIT: Hmmm. "Teal men." There should be some kind of a joke on me lurking in that typo somewhere, but I dunno exactly what.

Off topic, purely personal note. I'm going to take a totally self-indulgent little tangential diversion for a moment here, and am not looking to get any response. Most folk should not read past this spot; it won't be interesting or useful --> X. But I think it might not be a bad idea for me to do this at this time, especially right here, just in the interests of honest disclosure to provide a few interested individuals with a little personal context, to those connected to this topic who might have some degree of ongoing interest.

Apart from this particular nonsense on the last few pages... I've been getting asked (oddly enough), mostly offline from some chronic lurkers & occasionally also online, why I don't post much especially on my few specialized subject areas here, especially lately. Realizing there will surely be someone else who thinks that's a good thing who isn't about to ask that, I usually choose to just zip up about that because the real answer is something that gets just plain distasteful.

The truthful answer that I give only rarely, even though it is similar to what I've heard A LOT from most people I know who've ever taken a look at this forum, is that while there are some individuals who I'm certainly quite happy to exchange posts with anytime, and the place does get simultaneously used for multiple different purposes to some degree, the most highly visible aspects amount to providing a little social clubhouse for some folks who are not at all well emotionally or cognitively, in some cases helping them feel better about their dysfunction in the world, seeking & finding a virtual place for social reinforcement for staying sick and getting sicker.

Simply put, I agree with most folks who see it and quickly just say "yuck, no thanks." The site is often fairly creepy-sleazy, and if anything just seems to get more and more so, and I often have misgivings about contributing content to it at all. So I'm certainly not at all motivated by wanting to make any effort to gin-up traffic for it. And when I'm into taking any deeper dives into these few subject areas where I'm able & interested, this is just not where I want to do it. But I also feel I owe the courtesy of not steering people from here to touting any other "there" so if asked I just politely ignore the question.

FWIW

I hope I haven’t bothered you DD.

Nope. Surely not. At least not lately that I can think of. And if you did bother me, it prolly wouldn't really bother me past the bottom of this cuppa coffee. And I wasn't soliciting folks to join in any agreement with me, so it also won't be bugging me if you don't happen to agree with part or all of the above.

Cheers, and good luck at Oaklawn.

[By the way, I'm not the "one star" rating. Dunno what that's about.]

Raintree has been entered for Saturday.

She drew post 6 of 7, facing 6 other 3 year old Fillies for a 100k purse.

She fits in this group, and if she fires, there’s no reason to think she can’t win.

I know not many people read this thread, but for any casual viewers, the odds that a horse that was available for anyone to own at $150 for 1%, could race in a race like this, is very very low.

I can’t wait for Saturday. I’m going to be a wreck all day.

A primer for those of us that haven't paid attention to horse racing in years.... Does the winner get like 60% of the purse? With 10% of that going directly to the jockey? With 15% also going to the trainer? And sometimes there is an entry fee? So best case you win, and 60k becomes 45k to split? So you get $450? Minus the expenses of feeding, veterinarian, transport?
Don't get me wrong, for a $150 investment it sounds like you are doing well, but am I off base?

You are for the most part correct. The trainer fee is a little less. I think 10% on average.

I own more than 1% of her so that is helpful too (in this case).

It’s typically a terrible investment. But when you lose a little, it’s still fun. When you make a little it’s a lot of fun.

I try to buy more Fillies than colts, because they typically have some residual value.

Yes a bigger share would be great until it involves getting a few who 'run' like mules, of course, as I'm sure you already know. I think the real hard part for the middle of the market & below comes mostly from the fixed/recurring costs that don't really scale up & down fully proportional to the size of purses they're competing for, and the pedigree's residual value in the breeding market or absence thereof. I've been told that some of them continue to occupy a stall & want to eat every day whether they are in training for a share of a $50,000 purse or a $5,000 purse or the presentation of a prestigious winner's brick of cheese by Miss Oregon Dairy Farms at the Tillamook County Fair.

I recently heard about this PBS 2 part special (released Jan19): Equus "Story of the Horse“.
I look forward to watching it. Here is one preview:

Here are the PPs for Fins horse's stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn.
his horse, Raintree Starlet the # 6 could be a great bet IMHO if the odds follow the morning line and she actually goes off at 6/1 or even if she goes off a little lower than that

the morning line favorite, the #1, Unholy Alliance, looks to me to be potentially overrated, if she goes off at 2/1. the public will probably see her as being of higher class because she just finished 3rd in a low level stakes event - she's no big deal, IMO. on the plus side for her she's a closer and it's a small field so she's not likely to run into trouble.

🇧🇹🇼 🇮🇫 🇮'🇲 🇼🇷🇴🇳🇬 🇦🇧🇴🇺🇹 🇦🇳🇾 🇴🇫 🇹🇭🇮🇸 🇮 🇼🇴🇳'🇹 🇧🇪 🇵🇷🇴🇻🇮🇩🇮🇳🇬 🇲🇾 🇭🇴🇲🇪 🇦🇩🇩🇷🇪🇸🇸 🇦🇳🇩 🇮 🇼🇴🇳'🇹 🇧🇪 🇷🇪🇨🇪🇮🇻🇮🇳🇬 🇻🇮🇸🇮🇹🇴🇷🇸

GLTA especially Fin

sorry about the small print but that's the best my limited computer skills could provide on short notice
on my PC I can finger stretch the images so it's acceptable

Thanks

Click on Unholy Alliance (Sat 2/16/19) for pps of Raintree Starlet's race:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/BradHCox/COX+BRAD+H/9999/summary.html

I just checked. Raintree looks impressive.

I just put $4 WP on Raintree. Go FIN Go

𝑩𝑹𝑬𝑨𝑲 𝑶𝑼𝑻 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑪𝑯𝑨𝑴𝑷𝑨𝑮𝑵𝑬 𝑫𝑼𝑫𝑬 - 𝑩𝑹𝑬𝑬𝑫𝑬𝑹𝑺 𝑪𝑼𝑷 𝑺𝑷𝑹𝑰𝑵𝑻 𝑪𝑯𝑨𝑴𝑷𝑰𝑶𝑵𝑺𝑯𝑰𝑷 𝑪𝑶𝑴𝑰𝑵𝑮 𝑼𝑷



𝕥𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕚𝕤 𝕠𝕟𝕖 𝕟𝕚𝕚𝕚𝕚𝕚𝕚𝕔𝕙𝕖 𝕙𝕠𝕣𝕤𝕖 𝕕𝕦𝕕𝕖




I checked her out warming up and she really looked like she was having fun

Raintree just WON. Easy money. Go FIN Go. Congrat FIN.

I really have no opinion on what odds I''d want to call fair value for betting her here, and I don't plan to get one, so it's just a rooting interest for me. But that said, that #1 does look like a highly vulnerable overbet favorite to me. Races comprised of 7 horse fields sprinting at Oaklawn are not usually kind to those who lack tactical speed, her last at FG in a minor stakes was on a surface that would tend to suit her way of going more, and this OP course is not generally known as a 'golden rail' type of track either. .

ADD result chart: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/OP021619USA8.pdf

So, looks like soon we'll all be considered too poor for Fin to be hanging out with us.

A decade of Dixie Belle Stakes finish times:

• Median: 1:11.85
• Average: 1:12.06


• 2019: 1:10.82
  
  
• 2018: 1:10.61
• 2017: 1:11.85
• 2016: did not run
• 2015: 1:11.45
• 2014: 1:14.25
• 2013: 1:11.66
• 2012: 1:10.85
• 2011: 1:13.67
• 2010: 1:13.35

I just watched the replay. Raintree has potential.

Quote: speedycrap

Raintree just WON. Easy money. Go FIN Go. Congrat FIN.

Wow! How exciting. Go, Fin!

Quote: DrawingDead

So, looks like soon we'll all be too poor for Fin to be hanging out with us.

if we're really lucky he might give us his autograph

In spite of the comparison I made to prior years' running times for the event, I think the race might not get a sparkling figure at all for a stakes race. Given the comps to the other 6f times from some quite undistinguished fields in other races on the card.

But $13.40 is a nice figure, as is x% of $100k. And a breeding rights share of a potential broodmare that has already got "black type" on her mommy resume now from taking down a "Listed" stakes.

The Beyer number will probably be out tomorrow morning.

I’ll have more to say later, but what an experience!

I’m still in shock, and the party is still going strong.

Thanks for all the support guys!

Or tonight. Beyer's shop just posted a figure of 75.

Quote: DrawingDead

Or tonight. Beyer's shop just posted a figure of 75.

Beyer's figures are probably better, granted, but still, Equibase gave her her highest figure ever, 95.
her previous Equibase high was 83.

Equibase had the Derby hopeful War of Will at 97 yesterday, not much difference.
yes, War of Will's race was longer


also, she won pretty easily and might have more in the tank when asked

Quote: lilredrooster

Beyer's figures are probably better, granted, but still, Equibase gave her her highest figure ever, 95.
her previous Equibase high was 83.

Equibase had the Derby hopeful War of Will at 97 yesterday, not much difference.
yes, War of Will's race was longer


also, she won pretty easily and might have more in the tank when asked

I thought she had a beautiful efficiently fluid looking stride, and I agree that visually she seemed to imply to me there might have been somewhat “more in the tank” yesterday. In fact, while I'm not sure of this & could easily be completely mistaken, at one point in about mid stretch I thought I saw her cock her head toward the outside rail somewhat and start to gawk at the grandstand, possibly becoming bored/distracted briefly for maybe 10-15 yards or so before getting refocussed on finishing her task of showing who's boss of that group.

One thing I really want to mention is that I thought she got an excellent very tactically intelligent ride from her human partner Canchari, gate to wire.

And in the way I like to evaluate pedigrees, at an AWD of 7.0f hers suggests to me a fairly decent probability of a physique that includes enough of the 'slow-twitch' type of muscle fibers & cardiovascular potential that's likely to carry her tactical speed enough to get any of the one turn distances effectively, including elongated 7f chute sprints & one turn miles, possibly up to some middle distances at the edge of the most likely range. And remembering that she's really an adolescent, for the most likely shape of her development curve that AWD also tends to suggest to me a pretty good chance of some degree of continued improvement from race to race & month to month well beyond this earliest part of her 3y/o season, unlike some of her more precociously bred peers.

On the other hand... well I'm tempeted to try to make myself one handed around this girl, because I've seen before that many folks at this point naturally feel a real relationship with their majestic foor footed professional athlete family member after she performs gloriously for them. And well they should; I know I would. And so remarking out loud on any less complentary cautionary aspects can feel a bit like saying to a just married fellow that his bride has a bit of a moustache, or noting that someone's baby has a distinctively large & slightly crooked nose.

But. I did think that I was seeing a reason to warn that the number that was published might be “not sparkling” so I don't think Beyer's staff just pulled that speed figure out of the lint in their britches. I do see justification for that somewhat feeble looking number when looking at some of the times for some pretty cheap races on the card for some oat-burning plodders with a well established allergy to running fast & winning. I DON'T think that necessarily means the figure they brewed is The Truth, just that it is at least an arguably reasonable quantitative interpretation of the performance, when considered in the context of all eight [oops] six of the six-furlong sprints that were run Saturday at Oaklawn.

1:10.11 Maiden Claiming $12.5k, 3y/o+
1:10.97 Maiden Claiming $12.5k, Fillies & Mares, 3y/o+
1:11.56 Claiming $8k, for non-winners of a race since October, 4y/o+
1:10.84 Allowance non-winners of two or optional Claiming $50k, 4y/o+
1:10.82 The Dixie Belle, Listed Stks @ $100k guaranteed, 3y/o Fillies
1:11.68 Maiden Special Weight, 3y/o+

What to make of those data points becomes a matter of interpretive judgement of course, not a straightforwad math equation. But the raw number of the running time of the stakes race doesn't exactly jump out & grab ya by the throat & announce an obvious superiority to all its mediocre neighbors in the way one might've expected with such a big difference in class level.

CliffsNotes: A bunch of opinions from someone who isn't writing any of the checks, or depositing them. I really like her too; looking forward to more. Just some other pesky little stuff about silly timers & whatnot.

Nice article. Woo-hoo FINS!!

http://www.oaklawn.com/news/2019/feb/16/raintree-starlet-wins-saturdays-dixie-belle/

Question for those in the know. Fins has made mention of betting on his horse here. If this was the stock market there are specific rules about buying and selling your 'horse'. Are you allowed to bet on other horses in the race a horse you own is racing in? You get my gist....

Quote: SOOPOO

Question for those in the know. Fins has made mention of betting on his horse here. If this was the stock market there are specific rules about buying and selling your 'horse'. Are you allowed to bet on other horses in the race a horse you own is racing in? You get my gist....

this is your answer for California racing. I believe this rule applies everywhere. if I'm wrong Dead will correct me.

"No owner (or his/her representative) with a horse in a race can place any form of wager on any other horse TO WIN in that race (this rule even extends to all permutations of “exotic wagers”)."

this means that he can bet his own horse to win or on top in the exotics, just not other horses

I believe they can bet any horse that they do not own to finish in any spot other than first - i.e. place or show or underneath in the exotics

there would be no horse racing without betting so the rules in place are not meant to discourage betting as long as no chicanery is evident

by representative they are referring to jockeys and trainers.

as far as others working on the backstretch such as grooms or hot walkers - I don't know the answer re them - but I would guess they can make any bet they want


http://www.toconline.com/racingownership/owner-handbook/the-ins-and-outs/

Quote: lilredrooster

this is your answer for California racing

Here is the specific rule from the California Horse Racing Board rulebook:
(although "representative" is not specifically defined, it almost certainly refers to someone placing a bet on an owner's or trainer's behalf - not necessarily a trainer or jockey)

1970. Wagering on Competing Horse.
No owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional."
No employee or representative of an owner, authorized agent or trainer having a horse entered in a race shall wager on, or include in any wager, any other horse competing in such races to finish first regardless of whether such wager is "exotic" or "conventional."
(a) When an owner, authorized agent, trainer, jockey, or driver submits a winning parimutuel ticket for cash redemption it shall be prima facie evidence that the person submitting the ticket made the wager shown on the winning ticket.

1971. Wagering by Jockey or Driver.
No jockeys or drivers shall make any wagers, or have any wagers made in their behalf, in any race in which they participate, except through the owners or trainers on the horses which they ride or drive.
Any owners or trainers wagering for such jockeys or drivers shall maintain records of all such wagers and all other presents or other gratuities given any jockeys or drivers.
Such records will be furnished to the stewards or the Board or its investigators upon demand.

I've got almost nothing to add to the replies.

The only thing I'd want to mention is to emphasize that most regulation of this game is very specific to a lot of different individual jurisdictions. So while I believe language similar to that above from the CHRB is commonplace, if there are some locations that haven't got that then I wouldn't want to assume I'd be sure know it, and I'd be skeptical about whether anyone could for sure with no local exceptions nationally.

There are a lot of individual State Racing Commissions, some states with even further fragmentation delegating some significant regulation of the game to some designated local track officials and recognized private associations of stakeholders... so I don't want to assume I'm totally sure about it in say, some of the pop-up Cajun race "meets" with a portable tote board towed hither & yon by a pickup truck down in the bayou country between Thibodaux and Crocodile, Louisiana. If someone in a suit went down there to make them get all officially upright like most other places I'm pretty sure there would be some kind of 'accidental' feast for some of the gators.

But mostly, about 99.385%, pretty much what they said. I was about to quote the same CHRB Reg. language that's repeated from the TOC (Thoroughbred Owners of California) handbook called "THE INS AND OUTS - DID YOU KNOW…" that they give to their members.

http://www.toconline.com/racingownership/owner-handbook/the-ins-and-outs/

I saw her win via TVG. What an exciting feeling for the connections. Great job of getting her into the race. Congrats.
I like this short FB video of her winning:
https://www.facebook.com/OaklawnRacingAndGaming/videos/309772186348866/

Quote: Keeneone

I saw her win via TVG. What an exciting feeling for the connections. Great job of getting her into the race. Congrats.
I like this short FB video of her winning:
https://www.facebook.com/OaklawnRacingAndGaming/videos/309772186348866/

I can watch that video over and over.

I follow the California rules when it comes to wagering on my horses.

Raintree was nominated for the Grade III Honeybee on 3/9 at Oaklawn.

It’s 8.5 furlongs, the purse is 200K, and it’s a prep for the Kentucky Oaks.

My expectations are low, but my hopes are high. I’m going to try to enjoy it as much as I can. Having a horse that could compete in the Kentucky Oaks is literally a once in a lifetime opportunity (probably) for me.

We will see if she likes two turns.

Any suggestions that she likes the distance?

She gallops out well and her dad was probably best going 9 furlongs.

There’s probably more reason to think she’s best going around one turn though.

I think on the turf she might be able to carry her speed longer.

Oh, the race will be on Fox Sports 2 next week. I don’t have it, but apparently 50% of people do.

Quote: FinsRule

Raintree was nominated for the Grade III Honeybee on 3/9 at Oaklawn.

It’s 8.5 furlongs, the purse is 200K, and it’s a prep for the Kentucky Oaks.

My expectations are low, but my hopes are high. I’m going to try to enjoy it as much as I can. Having a horse that could compete in the Kentucky Oaks is literally a once in a lifetime opportunity (probably) for me.

We will see if she likes two turns.

Awesome stuff. She is dragging you into bigger events. She is hot, in form, and certainly likes Oaklawn. 6F to 8.5F is a big jump, but if you never try, you will never know. Hopefully she will make the gate and race in a Graded Stakes...

So $5 across again.

do you know her Tomlinson number for 8.5.......visually she didn't look like she wanted to go any further.

Quote: ontariodealer

do you know her Tomlinson number for 8.5.......visually she didn't look like she wanted to go any further.

regardless of that number I think they feel it is necessary to try her on a route because there are so many more opportunities for big purses on routes compared to sprints

Quote: lilredrooster

regardless of that number I think they feel it is necessary to try her on a route because there are so many more opportunities for big purses on routes compared to sprints

I think so too. I also think it’s hard to tell if a horse wants to go further after watching them sprint. She will be traveling the first 6 furlongs of her next race in around 112-113. That’s 10-15 lengths slower than her sprint race. That should give her more energy to keep running.

But I agree it’s a big question.

incredible - Santa Anita has been shut down
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/03/06/something-is-drastically-wrong-after-horse-die-storied-california-track-shuts-down-racing/?utm_term=.8cb407069dae

This whole thing is hard to comprehend.

In the couple of weeks since I first started hearing of this possibly bubbling up as an issue at Santa Anita, there hasn't been any obvious commonality among the catastrophic injuries as far as I can tell from the public reports. The incidents that have caused gradually escalating concerns in the community of horsemen and finally led to the current state of extreme alarm with racetrack management have involved stock from the Santa Anita stables of a diverse set of trainers, occurring over a period of about two months. That fact alone certainly doesn't eliminate the possibility of multiple stables at the same track doing something problematic all at once, such as a "supplement" *ahem*cough*cough* becoming a popular "health" potion on the backstretch that caused or contributed to these injuries. But the number of different barns does reduce the probability of something like that being the culprit. Maybe the necropsy reports (horse autopsies) will help provide some clues to define what kind of issue(s) are really involved. But, maybe not, and that will take some time.

Speculating on the recent wet weather this winter in California having some unique effect on the Santa Anita main track surface, and acting accordingly, seems to be simply the best default position available when nobody really knows what might be going on, if anything is. In the same relatively wet (for SoCal) climate conditions the Friday through Sunday night mixed quarterhorse & thoroughbred racing that's been held continuously at Los Alamitos down in Cypress throughout this same period has NOT been having similar issues. But no two running surfaces are completely identical, including even the SA training track & their main track located on the very same grounds in Arcadia.

The most difficult thing may be if there really is no particular common contributing problem or few identifiable related issues to fix. And whatever it is, the safest bet in the San Gabriel Valley is that the rabid mindless PETA numbskulls who've heard "something or other" and have now started pimping this with photo-op stunts at Santa Anita will, if anything, only "help" by making it worse, not better. Then in coming months look for a breathless & extremely sloppy ill-informed three part feature series implying mass slaughter & vicious torture trumpeted under profoundly ignorant purple screaming headlines in the NY Times. They've done it before, and seemed to really like the rabble they roused in their audience.

Raintree Starlet draws the 7 post in a field of 10 for the Grade III Honeybee Saturday at Oaklawn.

I’d say 8-1 would be a good morning line, maybe 4th choice?

So $5 across, ok?

I am stunned, not that there are 20 horse deaths this year, but that in the past few years they averaged around 10 deaths!!!! At ONE track!! These are prime athletes, obviously being abused in some fashion that there are that many deaths among them. Imagine if there were 10 deaths NATIONWIDE amongst elite human runners!!!

If 20 is the numerator for dead horses at Santa Anita, what is the denominator? (all horses that ran at the track)

Their bodies have been bred for speed not durability. They are extremely fragile animals.

They honestly aren’t being abused. At least not in the sense you’re referring to.