2014 Academy Awards Predictions
Quote: WizardIt was just to be consistent to my strategy of always betting the big favorites on the Oscars. Laying 215 to 1 seemed kind of ridiculous so I bet to only win a buck.
Got it. Makes sense.
Hopefully you could have had a good hearty laugh if The Lone Ranger surprised us all.
Amount bet = $8,037.50
Net win = $746.00
Net win (pct) = 9.28%
This despite the big upset on Best Animated Short Film.
I can't think of anything else in the world of gambling where I consistently and easily win year after year. Say it with me -- Silver Platter.
Regarding the Martingale, it is no better nor worse than any other betting system. If you enjoy using it, then use it. I would never compare it to betting a sure thing like Gravity to win Best Visual Effects.
Ummm...welcome back?Quote: LonesomeGamblerThose aren't the bet amounts.
Quote: pacomartinThat's not really the layman's argument against Martingale. The layman's argument should be that sooner or later the bet will get huge, and you are just as likely to lose as to win.
The odds of losing the $215 were almost miniscule. There is nothing mathematically unsound.
I couldn't do it. I'm afraid to play 35 different numbers on single zero roulette, risking $35 to win $1. :)
American Hustle
Columbia Pictures and Annapurna Pictures Production (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Best Picture
Christian Bale - Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper - Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams - Actress in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence - Actress in a Supporting Role
Costume Design
Directing
Film Editing
Production Design
Original Screenplay
Captain Phillips
Columbia Pictures Production (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Best Picture
Barkhad Abdi - Actor in a Supporting Role
Film Editing
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Adapted Screenplay
Nebraska
Paramount Vantage Production (Paramount)
Best Picture
Bruce Dern - Actor in a Leading Role
June Squibb - Actress in a Supporting Role
Cinematography
Directing
Original Screenplay
The Wolf of Wall Street
Red Granite Production (Paramount)
Best Picture
Leonardo DiCaprio - Actor in a Leading Role
Jonah Hill - Actor in a Supporting Role
Directing
Adapted Screenplay
Quote: WizardHere is the post-mortem:
Amount bet = $8,037.50
Net win = $746.00
Net win (pct) = 9.28%
This despite the big upset on Best Animated Short Film.
I can't think of anything else in the world of gambling where I consistently and easily win year after year. Say it with me -- Silver Platter.
Regarding the Martingale, it is no better nor worse than any other betting system. If you enjoy using it, then use it. I would never compare it to betting a sure thing like Gravity to win Best Visual Effects.
Cheers Wiz, I made a tidy 11% profit as well following (some of) your advice. Net win amount was nothing like as high :)
Quote: WizardJust lost Best Animated Short Film where I laid 785 on Get a Horse, which was upset by Mr. Hublot. This sets a new record for the biggest upset I have ever seen. The previous record was when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture, which was running around -400. In this case I bet $392.50 to win $50, so no worry about me jumping off a bridge. Yet. Let's see what happens with the other awards.
DeGeneres declared two possible scenarios for the final outcome of the Oscar race: "Possibility No. 1, '12 Years a Slave' wins best picture. Possibility No. 2, you're all racists."
So Crash's racism beat Brokeback Mountain's "The love that dare not speak its name". And the Academy voters chose to give relative unknowns "Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares" international fame instead of giving both the short and feature length animation to Walt Disney studios.
But you won the riskier proposition bets.
What is your advice to your future self next year?
Quote: pacomartinDeGeneres declared two possible scenarios for the final outcome of the Oscar race: "Possibility No. 1, '12 Years a Slave' wins best picture. Possibility No. 2, you're all racists."
I liked that joke. I thought it was a jab at the fact that everyone there knew it was going to win.
Quote:What is your advice to your future self next year?
Pretty much keep doing the same thing. However, don't overlook the props on over/under total wins per movie. I'll write more about those next year.
Looking back, I shouldn't have tied up $250 on Best Visual Effects when there were greater advantages to be had. I had only so much money in my account, and bet all of it. I maintain it was a good bet, but there were better bets.
Quote: pacomartinThe odds of losing the $215 were almost miniscule.
No, not "almost miniscule". Think of it this way: would you bet $20,000 to win $100?
Quote: renoNo, not "almost miniscule". Think of it this way: would you bet $20,000 to win $100?
If it wouldn't bother me to lose the 20K, I would. However, after Cyprus and three consecutive Super Bowl safeties, it would.
Quote: renoNo, not "almost miniscule". Think of it this way: would you bet $20,000 to win $100?
It's all relative. The odds were hugely in favor of Mickey Mouse winning the Oscar. So you might bet $20,000 to win $2500 thinking that was a smart bet, but then you would have lost the 20 grand.
The Wizard bet $8,037.50, he was hoping to win $1188.50 but because of the Mickey Mouse upset he won $746.
If you were going to bet the whole amount on a single bet, tell me where the risk/reward ratio would have been acceptable.
| $8,037.50 | Bet |
|---|---|
| $37 | 2251 Gravity - Best Visual Effects -21500* vs Field wins Best Visual Effects |
| $155 | 1151 Frozen - Best Animated Feature Film -5200* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film |
| $212 | 1191 Gravity - Best Cinematography -3800* vs Field wins Best Cinematography |
| $282 | 1071 Cate Blanchett - Best Actress -2850* vs Field wins Best Actress |
| $328 | 2121 Dallas Buyers Club - Best Makeup -2450* vs Field wins Best Makeup |
| $459 | 2211 Gravity - Best Sound Editing -1750* vs Field wins Best Sound Editing |
| $459 | 2231 Gravity - Best Sound Mixing -1750* vs FIeld wins Best Sound Mixing |
| $574 | 1031 Alfonso Cuaron - Best Director -1400* vs Field wins Best Director |
| $574 | 1091 Jared Leto - Best Supporting Actor -1400* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor |
| $1,024 | 1171 Get a Horse! - Best Animated Short Film -785* vs Field wins Best Animated Short Film |
| $1,132 | 1131 12 Years a Slave - Adapted Screenplay -710* vs Field wins Best Adapted Screenplay |
| $1,806 | 2141 Gravity - Best Original Score -445* vs Field wins Best Original Score |
| $1,827 | 1051 Matthew McConaughey - Best Actor -440* vs Field wins Best Actor |
| $2,115 | 2181 Let It Go - Best Original Song -380* vs Field wins Best Original Song |
The odds don't change just because the amont of the bet is significantly larger.Quote: renoNo, not "almost miniscule". Think of it this way: would you bet $20,000 to win $100?
Touché! I suppose I could've held out for a moment where I had something useful to say.Quote: teddysUmmm...welcome back?
Anyway, I enjoyed the show last night.
Quote: pacomartinIf you were going to bet the whole amount on a single bet, tell me where the risk/reward ratio would have been acceptable.
Not counting the props on over/under total wins by a single movie, I think -300 to -1,000 is the sweet spot.
Among online casinos, Boyhood is the landslide favorite for Best Picture. As I write this, Selma is a 20-1 underdog. I wonder if the casinos will move the odds on Selma in the coming weeks. Hollywood is self-consciously hypersensitive to political image, and I could see the Academy voting for Selma to avoid embarrassment.
Quote: renoHollywood is self-consciously hypersensitive to political image, and I could see the Academy voting for Selma to avoid embarrassment.
Why not? They gave the talentless Whoopsie
Goldberg a token Oscar for Ghost. Anything
can happen. I challenge anybody to watch
that movie and think she deserved any kind
of award, let alone an Oscar.
I like your thinking but if Selma wins then people will say it's for just that reason.Quote: renoSearch Google News for "whitest Oscars" and Google informs me that there are over 3,000 news stories about how caucasian the nominations are in 2015. The hashtag #OscarsSoWhite quickly trended on Twitter after the nominations were announced on Thursday morning and logged over 17,000 impressions.
Among online casinos, Boyhood is the landslide favorite for Best Picture. As I write this, Selma is a 20-1 underdog. I wonder if the casinos will move the odds on Selma in the coming weeks. Hollywood is self-consciously hypersensitive to political image, and I could see the Academy voting for Selma to avoid embarrassment.
P.S. Boyhood was a fair movie, but it wasn't that great. Movies have been pretty weak lately. TV series seem to be far better than movies. I can't remember the last movie I thought was worth telling anyone to watch.
Quote: renoSearch Google News for "whitest Oscars" and Google informs me that there are over 3,000 news stories about how caucasian the nominations are in 2015. The hashtag #OscarsSoWhite quickly trended on Twitter after the nominations were announced on Thursday morning and logged over 17,000 impressions.
Among online casinos, Boyhood is the landslide favorite for Best Picture. As I write this, Selma is a 20-1 underdog. I wonder if the casinos will move the odds on Selma in the coming weeks. Hollywood is self-consciously hypersensitive to political image, and I could see the Academy voting for Selma to avoid embarrassment.
I don't. If the Academy wants to give Selma a "consolation prize" Oscar, it will be for its other nomination, in Original Song. Even there, there are two "competing stories"; Glen Campbell is nominated in this category, for a song from his documentary, and the Academy might also treat it as a consolation prize for The LEGO Movie, which was not nominated for Animated Feature Film.
http://www.businessinsider.com/al-sharpton-blasts-appalling-oscars-2015-1
Quote: AxelWolfTV series seem to be far better than movies. I can't remember the last movie I thought was worth telling anyone to watch.
I'm watching all 7 seasons of Burn
Notice on Netflix, not bad. Just
finished Sons of Anarchy.
As long as you are not watching the new HBO series Looking.Quote: EvenBobI'm watching all 7 seasons of Burn
Notice on Netflix, not bad. Just
finished Sons of Anarchy.
I had no clue what it was, The first scene of the first episode was more shocking than Opie's death.
Quote: AxelWolfI like your thinking but if Selma wins then people will say it's for just that reason.
Well that is inevitable. It was the same way last year. But Selma won't win.
Crash won the Best Picture Oscar at the 78th Academy Awards, controversially beating the critically favored Brokeback Mountain and making it only the second film ever (the other being The Sting) to win the Academy Award for Best Picture without having been nominated for any of the three Golden Globe Awards for Best Motion Picture (Best Drama, Best Comedy/Musical and Best Foreign Film).
But Crash and Brokeback Mountain were both very uncomfortable films. Crash for displaying racism as firmly embedded in the culture with little or no progress made in the past 5 decades. BM was designed to make people uncomfortable.
I don't see that this year. I didn't see boyhood, but it doesn't sound uncomfortable.
Quote: pacomartinWell that is inevitable. It was the same way last year. But Selma won't win.
Crash won the Best Picture Oscar at the 78th Academy Awards, controversially beating the critically favored Brokeback Mountain and making it only the second film ever (the other being The Sting) to win the Academy Award for Best Picture without having been nominated for any of the three Golden Globe Awards for Best Motion Picture (Best Drama, Best Comedy/Musical and Best Foreign Film).
But Crash and Brokeback Mountain were both very uncomfortable films. Crash for displaying racism as firmly embedded in the culture with little or no progress made in the past 5 decades. BM was designed to make people uncomfortable.
I don't see that this year. I didn't see boyhood, but it doesn't sound uncomfortable.
I liked Crash, a very enjoyable movie.
Here is how $cientology views Crash.
Director Paul Hagis in scientology
$cientology views Crash as the greatest film to ever win best picture. They glow about it in their publications.
Director Paul Hagis leaves scientology and speaks out.
$cientology views Crash as the worst film to ever win best picture and smears Hagis in their publications. LOL
Best Actress is a complete lock for Julianne Moore. Best Supporting Actor is a lock for JK Simmons. Best Supporting Actress will most likely be Patrcia Arquette. Best Actor? Either Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton. That one is closer.
Boyhood is front runner for Best Picture. But Birdman could easily upset.
Best Director is a toss up between Boyhood and Birdman.
(I'm pulling this all out of my butt, BTW. I'm a big movie nerd and I follow this stuff. I haven't looked at any of the official odds on any betting sites or anything yet).
Quote: ams288Best Actor? Either Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton. That one is closer.
Quote: WizardNot counting the props on over/under total wins by a single movie, I think -300 to -1,000 is the sweet spot.
Michael Keaton is the frontrunner with -120 . When the Wizard posts his bets it will be interesting to see if he passed on this category.
Julian Moore is the frontrunner with the best odds at -900. It will be interesting to see if the Wizard skips this category as well.
EDDIE REDMAYNE -- BEST ACTOR? -326
JULIANNE MOORE -- BEST ACTRESS? -3425
JK SIMMONS -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR? -3333
PATRICIA ARQUETTE -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -3000
I haven't seen the lines on the minor awards yet. Best picture and best director are not locks so I'd stay away from those.
Quote: WizardUnfortunately, I don't have any money in any accounts that take Academy Award bets. However, here is what I would bet if I did, based on Pinnacle odds:
EDDIE REDMAYNE -- BEST ACTOR? -326
JULIANNE MOORE -- BEST ACTRESS? -3425
JK SIMMONS -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR? -3333
PATRICIA ARQUETTE -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -3000
I haven't seen the lines on the minor awards yet. Best picture and best director are not locks so I'd stay away from those.
I feel good about Redmayne's chances. Hollywood loves actor's portraying disabiliites.
Quote: WizardHere is the post-mortem (for 2013):
Amount bet = $8,037.50
Net win = $746.00
Net win (pct) = 9.28%
This despite the big upset on Best Animated Short Film.
Quote: WizardUnfortunately, I don't have any money in any accounts that take Academy Award bets. However, here is what I would bet if I did, based on Pinnacle odds:
EDDIE REDMAYNE -- BEST ACTOR? -326
JULIANNE MOORE -- BEST ACTRESS? -3425
JK SIMMONS -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR? -3333
PATRICIA ARQUETTE -- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -3000
So if you were betting this year, you would lay $326+$3425+$3333+$3000=$10,084 to win $400 or 4%. Or would you put more money on Eddie?
Seems pretty small win compared to your 2011/2012 bets
Quote: WizardIf The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.
Bet Amount Odds Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639 Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565 Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002 Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152 Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365 Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317
Quote: Wizard's Oscar bets last year
In 2011 the Wizard:
Bet $21,635 on these three sure things to win $588.09
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 3
Best actor -- Colin Firth
Bet $19,322.50 on these three almost sure things to win $2,250
Best actress -- Natalie Portman
Best Visual Effects - Inception
Best supporiting actor -- Christian Bale
Bet $8,055 on these two likely outcomes to win $1,850
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Bet $1,837.50 on these four technical awards to win $300
Best Sound Editing - Inception
Best Sound Mixing - Inception
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Make Up - The Wolfman
Until finally missing on the Best Cinematographer Award and losing $275. It was the bet with the highest payback.
| Description | Amt. bet | To win |
|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore - Best Actress -3600* vs Field wins Best Actress | $216.00 | $6.00 |
| J.K. Simmons - Best Supporting Actor -3600* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor | $216.00 | $6.00 |
| Patricia Arquette - Best Sup Actress -4000* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actress | $240.00 | $6.00 |
| Birdman - Best Cinematography -900* vs Field wins Best Cinematography | $90.00 | $10.00 |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design -1100* vs Field wins Best Production Design | $110.00 | $10.00 |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume -900* vs Field wins Best Costume Design | $90.00 | $10.00 |
| Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat. -530* vs Field wins Best Documentary Feature | $53.00 | $10.00 |
| Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short -425* vs Field wins Best Documentary Short | $42.50 | $10.00 |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. -510* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film | $51.00 | $10.00 |
| Total | $1,108.50 | $78.00 |
http://www.gocomics.com/pearlsbeforeswine/2015/02/21
Quote: WizardI couldn't stand to not be in action so I funded my 5dimes account with $999, which already had a small amount in it before, and then made the following bets.
Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat. -530* vs Field wins Best Documentary Feature $53.00 $10.00 Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short -425* vs Field wins Best Documentary Short $42.50 $10.00 How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. -510* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film $51.00 $10.00
Going by AMPAS politics, I think Citizenfour is even more of a lock than Moore. However, Crisis Hotline doesn't seem to have the hype going for it, and HTTYD2 is going up against Disney and Big Hero 6. Yes, I know Get a Horse! lost last year, but that was "2D" animation, which seems to be a negative now for some reason.
Also remember that the rules for betting on the documentaries require that the voters actually watch all of the nominated films, so there's always room for shenanigans. Remember the time that one movie was shown in Los Angeles only once per day, at something like 10 AM, for the required seven consecutive days, so that most of the people who didn't support this film wouldn't be allowed to vote against it unless they noticed when and where it was being shown?
Quote: ThatDonGuyAlso remember that the rules for betting on the documentaries require that the voters actually watch all of the nominated films, so there's always room for shenanigans. Remember the time that one movie was shown in Los Angeles only once per day, at something like 10 AM, for the required seven consecutive days, so that most of the people who didn't support this film wouldn't be allowed to vote against it unless they noticed when and where it was being shown?
I thought they gave video tapes, or I guess DVDs these days, to every voting member of every film. When I lived in Orange County you sometimes came across these academy award copies of movies at yard sales and swap meets.
I still suspect some voters don't watch everything, but that is getting off topic.
Quote: WizardI thought they gave video tapes, or I guess DVDs these days, to every voting member of every film. When I lived in Orange County you sometimes came across these academy award copies of movies at yard sales and swap meets.
I'm pretty sure those are sent out by the studios - sending out screeners is stated by a number of people as the reason Crash beat Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture, so now it's pretty much an industry standard for the major awards - but most documentary filmmakers don't have that sort of money.
I just wonder how many voters claim they watch all of the documentary feature (for example) films, but didn't. There was a time when you had to sign a form at the theater where the film was shown. Up until a few years ago (and in part because of the incident I mentioned), the Academy had screenings of all of the films in the "you have to see all of the films in order to be eligible to vote" categories, and you had to attend those in order to vote.
Birdman - Best Picture (62.55%)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman) - Best Director (53.43%)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - Best Actor (74.36%)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - Best Actress (98.36%)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) - Best Supporting Actor (98.59%)
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - Best Sup Actress (98.59%)
Birdman - Best Cinematography (87.5%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design (88.89%)
Boyhood - Best Film Editing (71.43%)
Interstellar - Best Visual Effects (78.49%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume (91.3%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Makeup (76.34%)
Grand Budapest Hotel - Orig. Screenplay (68.75%)
The Imitation Game - Adapted Screenplay (69.23%)
Glory - Best Original Song (81.82%)
The Theory of Everything - Orig. Score (62.96%)
American Sniper - Best Sound Editing (71.01%)
Best Sound Mixing -- No opinion
Feast - Best Animated Short (71.01%)
The Phone Call - Best Live Action Short (67.74%)
Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat (83.61%)
Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short (76.47%)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. (77.01%)
Ida - Best Foreign Language Film (71.01%)
Quote: WizardI couldn't stand to not be in action so I funded my 5dimes account with $999, which already had a small amount in it before, and then made the following bets.
Description Amt. bet To win Julianne Moore - Best Actress -3600* vs Field wins Best Actress $216.00 $6.00 J.K. Simmons - Best Supporting Actor -3600* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor $216.00 $6.00 Patricia Arquette - Best Sup Actress -4000* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actress $240.00 $6.00 Birdman - Best Cinematography -900* vs Field wins Best Cinematography $90.00 $10.00 The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design -1100* vs Field wins Best Production Design $110.00 $10.00 The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume -900* vs Field wins Best Costume Design $90.00 $10.00 Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat. -530* vs Field wins Best Documentary Feature $53.00 $10.00 Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short -425* vs Field wins Best Documentary Short $42.50 $10.00 How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. -510* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film $51.00 $10.00 Total $1,108.50 $78.00
I made these bets on Saturday at 4:37 PM, here are how those lines moved as of 2:20 PM Sunday:
Julianne Moore - Best Actress -3600 to -6000
J.K. Simmons - Best Supporting Actor -3600 to -7000
Patricia Arquette - Best Sup Actress -4000 to -7000
Birdman - Best Cinematography -900 to -700
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design -1100 to -800
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume -900 to -1050
Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat. -530 to -510
Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short -425 to -325
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. -510 to -335
I guess the lesson to be learned is to bet the enormous favorites (-3600 or longer) early and the lesser favorites, or maybe lesser awards, late.
Quote: ThatDonGuyHTTYD2 is going up against Disney and Big Hero 6. Yes, I know Get a Horse! lost last year, but that was "2D" animation, which seems to be a negative now for some reason.
I think that "Get a Horse!" lost simply because they had to give the academy award to FROZEN, and voters simply didn't want to give both prizes to Disney. I don't think 2D had anything to do with it.
It seems like the Academy awards success when it comes to animated films. HTTYD2 was more successful worldwide, but Big Hero 6 was a slightly bigger hit domestically.
I agree that there is a potential upset here (although I haven't seen any of the films).
Animated film title = Worldwide gross in $milion, ($foreign ticket sales)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 $618.9 (71.4% foreign)
Big Hero 6 $546.2 59.7%
Rio 2 $500.2 73.7%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) $483.8 60.5%
The LEGO Movie $468.8 45.0%
Penguins of Madagascar $357.8 76.9%
Mr. Peabody & Sherman $272.9 59.1%
Planes: Fire & Rescue $151.2 60.9%
The Nut Job $113.3 43.3%
The Boxtrolls $108.3 53.0%
Quote: ams288Big Hero 6 beat How To Train Your Dragon 2. The first upset of the night.
Winnings down to $17
Big Hero 6 Best Animated Feature Film · Chris Williams, Don Hall, Roy Conli
J.K. Simmons Best Supporting Actor · Whiplash
Patricia Arquette Best Supporting Actress · Boyhood
Anna Pinnock Best Production Design · The Grand Budapest Hotel
Adam Stockhausen Best Production Design · The Grand Budapest Hotel
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 Best Documentary Short Subject · Dana Heinz Perry, Ellen Goosenberg Kent
Milena Canonero Best Costume Design · The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida Best Foreign Language Film · Paweł Pawlikowski
Interstellar Best Visual Effects · Paul J. Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, ...
Mark Coulier Best Makeup · The Grand Budapest Hotel
Frances Hannon Best Makeup · The Grand Budapest Hotel
Feast Best Animated Short Film · Kristina Reed, Patrick Osborne
The Phone Call Best Live Action Short Film · Mat Kirkby, James Lucas
Bub Asman Best Sound Editing · American Sniper
Alan Robert Murray Best Sound Editing · American Sniper
Craig Mann Best Sound Mixing · Whiplash
Ben Wilkins Best Sound Mixing · Whiplash
Thomas Curley Best Sound Mixing · Whiplash
Boyhood was the favorite.... Should have been a shoe-in really.
To add insult to injury, they honored poet Maya Angelou, but not Joan Rivers! Wow. Angelou was in Medea's Family Reunion. It's what she's famous for.
Quote: renoNevertheless, I think's weird that the Oscars didn't honor Joan Rivers' death during the In Memorium segment.
IMDB Joan Rivers: Before Melissa Pulls the Plug (TV Movie) 2006 -- some foresight there.
Quote: WizardI couldn't stand to not be in action so I funded my 5dimes account with $999, which already had a small amount in it before, and then made the following bets.
Description Amt. bet To win Julianne Moore - Best Actress -3600* vs Field wins Best Actress $216.00 $6.00 J.K. Simmons - Best Supporting Actor -3600* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor $216.00 $6.00 Patricia Arquette - Best Sup Actress -4000* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actress $240.00 $6.00 Birdman - Best Cinematography -900* vs Field wins Best Cinematography $90.00 $10.00 The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design -1100* vs Field wins Best Production Design $110.00 $10.00 The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume -900* vs Field wins Best Costume Design $90.00 $10.00 Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat. -530* vs Field wins Best Documentary Feature $53.00 $10.00 Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short -425* vs Field wins Best Documentary Short $42.50 $10.00 How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. -510* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film $51.00 $10.00 Total $1,108.50 $78.00
Vexed by a cartoon again! You may recall that last year I had a perfect record except for laying 785 on Get a Horse! for Best Animated Short Film. This year picking How to Train Your Dragon 2 ruined my shut out, and also caused my win to drop from $78 to $17. Net profit for the 2015 Oscars $17/$1108.50 = 1.53%.
Quote: WizardHere are my full predictions. The number in parenthesis is the probability of winning, assuming the odds on the favorites are exactly fair at 5 Dimes.
Birdman - Best Picture (62.55%)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman) - Best Director (53.43%)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) - Best Actor (74.36%)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) - Best Actress (98.36%)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) - Best Supporting Actor (98.59%)
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) - Best Sup Actress (98.59%)
Birdman - Best Cinematography (87.5%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Prod Design (88.89%)
Boyhood - Best Film Editing (71.43%)
Interstellar - Best Visual Effects (78.49%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Costume (91.3%)
The Grand Budapest Hotel - Best Makeup (76.34%)
Grand Budapest Hotel - Orig. Screenplay (68.75%)
The Imitation Game - Adapted Screenplay (69.23%)
Glory - Best Original Song (81.82%)
The Theory of Everything - Orig. Score (62.96%)
American Sniper - Best Sound Editing (71.01%)
Best Sound Mixing -- No opinion
Feast - Best Animated Short (71.01%)
The Phone Call - Best Live Action Short (67.74%)
Citizenfour wins Best Documentary Feat (83.61%)
Crisis Hotline - Best Documentary Short (76.47%)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 - Animated F. (77.01%)
Ida - Best Foreign Language Film (71.01%)
Let the record show I went 19-4 on my overall predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Spotlight 10/11
The Revenant 7/4
The BIg Short 10
The Martian 10
Mad Max: Fury Road 25
Carol 33
Bridge of Spies 40
Room 40
Brooklyn 66
BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant 4/6
Thomas McCarthy - Spotlight 11/4
Adam McKay - The Big Short 6
George Miller - Mad Max Fury Road 8
Lenny Abrahamson - Room 25
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant 1/7
Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 7
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 10
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 33
Matt Damon - The Martian 28
BEST ACTRESS
Brie Larson - Room 3/10
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn 11/2
Cate Blanchett - Carol 9
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy 9
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years 28
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sylvester Stallone - Creed 10/11
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies 6/4
Tom Hardy - The Revenant 10
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight 12
Christian Bale - The Big Short 16
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rooney Mara - Carol 1/2
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl 4
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs 4
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight 16
Rachel McAdams - Spotlight 33
Source?Quote: pacomartinPretty overwhelming favorite in all acting categories. Strange case again where favorite for BEST PICTURE may not win any other major awards, but still a bit of a toss up for BEST PICTURE/DIRECTOR.
Quote: teliotSource?
http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture
I just basically took the odds from bet365. They will change dramatically, but the rank won't change much.
There have been a few films that won best picture with no acting awards.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) eleven Oscar nominations and won all of them, but no acting nominations received
The Last Emperor(1987) nine Oscar nominations and won all of them, but no acting nominations received
