Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 25th, 2014 at 9:17:05 PM permalink
Here are the big favorites for this year's Academy Awards. The lines in parenthesis are from 5 Dimes.

Best Motion Picture -- 12 Years a Slave (-375)
Best Director -- Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity (-2000)
Best Actor -- Matthew McConaughey - The Dallas Buyers Club (-550)
Best Actress -- Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine (-2500)
Best Supporting Actor -- Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club (-1400)
Best Adapted Screenplay -- 12 Years a Slave (-600)
Best Animated Feature Film -- Frozen (-3300)
Best Animated Short Film -- Get a Horse (-1200)
Best Cinematography -- Gravity (-3300)
Best Costume Design -- The Great Gatsby (-350)
Best Foreign Language Film -- The Great Beauty (-450)
Best Makeup -- Dallas Buyers Club (-5000)
Best Original Score -- Gravity (-650)
Best Original Song -- Let it Go (-460)
Best Visual Effects -- Gravity (-10000)

The only major award that isn't a lock is Best Supporting Actress. Lupita Nyongo ( 12 Years a Slave) is a slight favorite at -150.

Sorry to ruin the suspense.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 9:41:58 PM permalink
This is a really dry board for me.......

I have only seen 2 of the movies (TWOWS and American Hustle). I loved TWOWS and I thought Leo did a very good job specifically depicting Jordan Belfort. I have watched several of his scenes on Youtube and Leo nailed him according to me.

My best bet..........Will have to go with best Animated feature, but not much value there :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
February 25th, 2014 at 11:14:56 PM permalink
5dimes letting you lend them $10,000 for a free $100 in the best visual effects category is pretty generous of them.
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
February 26th, 2014 at 2:34:38 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The only major award that isn't a lock is Best Supporting Actress. Lupita Nyongo ( 12 Years a Slave) is a slight favorite at -150.



I am surprised that these odds are so close. The only reason is that giving Jennifer Lawrence back to back acting Oscars at her age would be unprecedented. It's been done three times in the past, but I think that the Academy will believe that it is time to honor someone new.


Luise Rainer
The Great Ziegfeld (1936)
The Good Earth (1937)

Spencer Tracy
Captains Courageous (1937)
Boys Town (1938)

Tom Hanks
Philadelphia (1993)
Forrest Gump (1994)


Quote: Wizard

Best Actor -- Matthew McConaughey - The Dallas Buyers Club (-550)



I think some lucky people put money down on McConaughey just after the nominations were announced. He was originally a positive bet since it took a while to determine that he would win the Oscar.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 26th, 2014 at 4:57:57 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I think some lucky people put money down on McConaughey just after the nominations were announced. He was originally a positive bet since it took a while to determine that he would win the Oscar.



I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
endermike
endermike
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 584
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
February 26th, 2014 at 6:01:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.



I'm pretty sure it is a combination of straw poling experts and wisdom of crowds.
gpac1377
gpac1377
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 676
Joined: Apr 7, 2013
February 26th, 2014 at 6:23:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.


Same here, but the certainty this year is especially interesting because the projected results are out of historical character. Did you notice that the big 4 (picture/director/actor/actress) are all from different films?

It happened last year ([Argo]/Ang Lee [Life of Pi]/Daniel Day-Lewis [Lincoln]/Jennifer Lawrence [Silver Linings Playbook]).

Before that, it happened in 2005 ([Crash]/Ang Lee [Brokeback Mountain]/Philip Seymour Hoffman [Capote]/Reese Witherspoon [Walk the Line]).

But from there, you have to go all the way back to 1956 to find the previous occurrence ([Around the World in 80 Days]/George Stevens [Giant]/Yul Brynner [The King and I]/Ingrid Bergman [Anastasia]).

According to my search, it also happened in 1952, 51, 40 and 37, plus also in three of the first five years of awards, when they may have been intentionally trying to spread the wealth.

Voting procedures don't appear to have changed much over the years. The nominating rules are a little screwy, but final voting is very straightforward, with the same pool of voters for each major award. (Documentaries and foreign-language film are handled differently.)

I'm not sure how any of that translates into +EV betting, but if I do place a wager, it will probably be on the No Safety.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 26th, 2014 at 6:56:58 AM permalink
Quote: endermike

I'm pretty sure it is a combination of straw poling experts and wisdom of crowds.



I'd be interested to know more about the "wisdom of crowds."

If I were an Academy voter I wouldn't want to throw my vote away on a movie that had no hope. Much like I'm sure a lot of people liked Perot, but didn't want to waste their vote on somebody with no chance. However, there must be something more reliable than just gossip on who the other members are supporting.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ams288
ams288
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 6573
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
February 26th, 2014 at 6:59:03 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.



The biggest reason is because all of the various guilds (SAG = actors, DGA = directors, PGA= producers, etc) give out their awards prior to the Academy Awards and there's a lot of overlap between the members of the various guilds and the Academy members.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
1arrowheaddr
1arrowheaddr
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 297
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
February 26th, 2014 at 1:49:31 PM permalink
Best Actor Matthew McConaughey -400
Best Actress Cate Blanchett -1025
Best Director Cuaron (Gravity) -511
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave -323
Costume Design The Great Gatsby -350
Supporting Actor Jared Leto -467

This is what I have bet so far and at what price. I think the best "values" right now are Leto -1000, McConaughey -500, and The Great Gatsby -350.
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 1573
Joined: May 5, 2010
February 26th, 2014 at 5:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.



I have gained a lot of knowledge on this topic since I'm seeing someone who is obsessed with movies and specifically the Academy Awards...

First off, the above list is pretty much on, except you didn't place the odds for Best Original Screenplay, which is almost a lock for "Her." As far as Supporting Actress, it might be the year to place a bet on all 3 of the non-favorites, since there's a feeling that Lupita and Jennifer might cancel each other out.

Voting for the Oscars is done by a rating process. You don't place a vote for one, you rank them. Most Oscars go to the Award season favorites, which is why it costs so much. However, there are a few surprises that could be lurking, and Supporting Actress is one of the categories.

The other you might want to try is Gravity. The main awards guild that mimics the Oscar had 12 Years and Gravity at a tie. It's most likely that 12 Years wins, but don't be surprised if Gravity picks up the win in the end.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
February 26th, 2014 at 8:45:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I still don't get how the results are pretty much known in advance most of the time.



I think it is partly people wanting to be in on the buzz. All the preliminary awards like SAG and Golden Globes makes people want to pile on. The studios are pretty coordinated about promoting the contenders. The 20 acting awards are all from 10 movies, and 9 of those were released in the final quarter. The actual pool of films is pretty small.

26. Jul. 2013 Blue Jasmine
4. Oct. 2013 Gravity
11. Oct. 2013 Captain Phillips
18. Oct. 2013 12 Years a Slave
1. Nov. 2013 Dallas Buyers Club
15. Nov. 2013 Nebraska
22. Nov. 2013 Philomena
13. Dec. 2013 American Hustle
25. Dec. 2013 The Wolf of Wall Street
27. Dec. 2013 August: Osage County

They have only given two best actors in 85 years to someone who was not between the age of 30 and 62. Adrian Brody was only 3 weeks short of his 30th birthday, and Henry Fonda was near death when he got his first Best Actor.

The median age for Best Actress is 33.5, so the younger women are heavily favored. Only two women older than 63 have won
Katharine Hepburn On Golden Pond
Jessica Tandy Driving Miss Daisy

I think a lot of the voters like to keep some kind of a perceived balance. They are very unlikely to give both Chiwetel Ejiofor and Lupita Nyong'o an acting win. Chiwetel was an early favorite, but his star pretty much dropped like a rock when Lupita started getting more media attention.

Cate Blanchett has won 34 Best Actress awards for Blue Jasmine and lost 4 times. That's a lot of momentum that tells you how actors think.

Meryl Streep at age 64 is the most nominated actress of all time, but given the normal fear of actually giving the award to an older actress, and that she was already given one for Iron Lady, most people feel it is sufficient to simply give her a nomination.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
February 26th, 2014 at 8:51:41 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

26. Jul. 2013 Blue Jasmine
4. Oct. 2013 Gravity
11. Oct. 2013 Captain Phillips
18. Oct. 2013 12 Years a Slave
1. Nov. 2013 Dallas Buyers Club
15. Nov. 2013 Nebraska
22. Nov. 2013 Philomena
13. Dec. 2013 American Hustle
25. Dec. 2013 The Wolf of Wall Street
27. Dec. 2013 August: Osage County



I don't really care about the awards, but I am interested in watching good films.

The only one of these I have seen was Blue Jasmine, which I really enjoyed. Are the others all good movies?
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
February 26th, 2014 at 8:57:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I don't really care about the awards, but I am interested in watching good films.

The only one of these I have seen was Blue Jasmine, which I really enjoyed. Are the others all good movies?



American Hustle is light entertainment with some good acting, especially Jennifer Lawrence, I think she stole the show.
TWOWS is excellent although a little long and can be quite graphic. If you don't like gratuitous scenes of sex, drug use and foul language then perhaps this one isn't for you. Still, I found it very good and enjoyed it immensely!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
aceofspades
aceofspades
  • Threads: 366
  • Posts: 6506
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
February 26th, 2014 at 9:23:47 PM permalink
I have seen Captain Philips and Gravity
(even though I watched Gravity on a small airplane seat television, I did not think it lived up to the hype)

Loved Captain Philips
Boz
Boz
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
February 26th, 2014 at 11:36:43 PM permalink
More interesting to me is the Razzies, which are awarded to bad movies people actually watched. Winners announced this Saturday with Adam Sandler in line to win worst Actor 3 years in a row.

http://www.razzies.com/history/34thNoms.asp
Tomspur
Tomspur
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
February 27th, 2014 at 12:30:36 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

More interesting to me is the Razzies, which are awarded to bad movies people actually watched. Winners announced this Saturday with Adam Sandler in line to win worst Actor 3 years in a row.

http://www.razzies.com/history/34thNoms.asp



It's amazing still that he is one of the highest paid actors in Hollywood.

A year or two ago they did a survey by which they listed the highest paid actors in Hollywood whose movies return the least.

Highest on the list was Will Ferrel
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
February 27th, 2014 at 3:37:01 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Are the others all good movies?



This is getting off topic but I really liked Captain Phillips and Nebraska. The only others I saw were Gravity and American Hustle, which were good but not great.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 1573
Joined: May 5, 2010
February 27th, 2014 at 3:55:16 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This is getting off topic but I really liked Captain Phillips and Nebraska. The only others I saw were Gravity and American Hustle, which were good but not great.



As a non-movie goer, I have seen three movies this year: Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, and Her.

I thoroughly enjoyed Nebraska; I'm originally from Omaha and I think Alexander Payne captures that life very well in all his films. It's not for everybody though. Perhaps the most overlooked performance was Will Forte, but he was much more of a lead than supporting role, and Bruce Dern had a much more difficult character to capture.

I loved Her, but the movie is disturbing on a different level. It's set in a parallel universe where computer/human relationships are not terrible, and where human/human relationships are not important. I found the scenes that most people were crying at were hilarious, and the scenes that were making most of the audience laugh made me very sad and uncomfortable. I love Charlie Kauffman, and Spike Jonze has done a lot of work with Kauffman, so I recommend it.

You can skip Saving Mr. Banks. The framing device is terrible, and while a fascinating story, it also rewrote a lot of history by eliminating smoking from the picture, which makes it less relevant.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
February 27th, 2014 at 5:53:09 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

More interesting to me is the Razzies, which are awarded to bad movies people actually watched. Winners announced this Saturday with Adam Sandler in line to win worst Actor 3 years in a row.

http://www.razzies.com/history/34thNoms.asp



In Best Actor/Actress categories only 3 people have shown up to accept award in person

Halle Berry for Catwoman and
Sandra Bullock for All About Steve
Tom Green for Freddy Got Fingered

Hale Berry won Best Actress for Monster's Ball, and Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, which she won the night after the Razzies.

The sad thing is that Grown Ups #2 actually was so profitable that it almost certainly means that Grown Ups #3 will be made.

Hotel Transylvania was Adam Sandler's biggest movie from the perspective of worldwide revenue, and he will certainly be churning out films for decades.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
February 27th, 2014 at 6:17:29 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
kubikulann
kubikulann
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 905
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
February 27th, 2014 at 6:29:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd be interested to know more about the "wisdom of crowds."

If I were an Academy voter I wouldn't want to throw my vote away on a movie that had no hope. Much like I'm sure a lot of people liked Perot, but didn't want to waste their vote on somebody with no chance. However, there must be something more reliable than just gossip on who the other members are supporting.

See Keynes beauty contest and Guess 2/3 of the average Game
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
gpac1377
gpac1377
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 676
Joined: Apr 7, 2013
February 27th, 2014 at 6:32:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

These people don't deserve anything, including more than minimum wage.


If someone voluntarily pays them big money, then they deserve it, IMO.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
endermike
endermike
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 584
Joined: Dec 10, 2013
February 27th, 2014 at 6:44:16 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

See Keynes beauty contest and Guess 2/3 of the average Game


In particular, I was referring to betting markets being very accurate predictors, ESPECIALLY close to the resolution date.

Quote: Tiltpoul

IVoting for the Oscars is done by a rating process. You don't place a vote for one, you rank them.


However, finding out that this is done by rankings makes this more interesting. Do votes get published? If not it opens the door for strategic voting in a HUGE way.
ams288
ams288
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 6573
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
February 27th, 2014 at 8:03:39 AM permalink
The ranking process is just for Best Picture, all the other categories are just a straight forward vote.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:48:53 AM permalink
Here are my bets on the Awards.

 1031 Alfonso Cuaron - Best Director -1400* vs Field wins Best Director 
 1051 Matthew McConaughey - Best Actor -440* vs Field wins Best Actor 
 1071 Cate Blanchett - Best Actress -2850* vs Field wins Best Actress 
 1091 Jared Leto - Best Supporting Actor -1400* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor 
1131 12 Years a Slave - Adapted Screenplay -710* vs Field wins Best Adapted Screenplay 
 1151 Frozen - Best Animated Feature Film -5200* vs Field wins Best Animated Feature Film 
 1171 Get a Horse! - Best Animated Short Film -785* vs Field wins Best Animated Short Film 
 1191 Gravity - Best Cinematography -3800* vs Field wins Best Cinematography 
 2121 Dallas Buyers Club - Best Makeup -2450* vs Field wins Best Makeup 
 2141 Gravity - Best Original Score -445* vs Field wins Best Original Score 
 2181 Let It Go - Best Original Song -380* vs Field wins Best Original Song 
 2211 Gravity - Best Sound Editing -1750* vs Field wins Best Sound Editing 
 2231 Gravity - Best Sound Mixing -1750* vs FIeld wins Best Sound Mixing 
 2251 Gravity - Best Visual Effects -21500* vs Field wins Best Visual Effects 

Plus another two based on multiple outcomes:

 1125 12Years/Alfonso/Matt/Cate/Jared/Lupita +230* vs Any other winner in Big Six Categories 

This will win if the favorite wins in all six major categories. It pretty much hinges on Lupita Nyong'o winning Best Supporting Actress (current odds -142)

 3001 Gravity wins all 7 listed categories +155* vs Gravity wont win all 7 listed categories 

They listed 7 technical categories and Gravity has to win all of them. The toughest to win will be Film Editing (current odds -167)

By the way, that bet on visual effects is the most I've ever laid on a bet in my life, in terms of odds. I bet $215 to win $1. After the Super Bowl safety, I didn't want to put myself in a position of jumping off the Hoover Dam bridge if it lost. Losing $215 won't be a life changing event.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
1arrowheaddr
1arrowheaddr
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 297
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
March 2nd, 2014 at 11:20:19 AM permalink
Bovada has Gravity's total wins at 6.5 Over -110, but the limit was only $25.
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 11:25:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are my bets on the Awards.



Quote: Wizard

So, consider this one of my hot tips. If The Artist doesn't win for Best Picture, then look for me at the Hoover Dam bridge.

Bet Amount Odds
Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639
Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565
Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002
Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152
Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365
Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317


Last year you bet $18,602.5 and won $2,750 since you got all seven bets correct.

The amounts of your bet amounts seem funny this year. Why does each amount end in $1? Last year you bet 2.5X or 5X the odds.
LonesomeGambler
LonesomeGambler
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 241
Joined: Aug 19, 2011
March 2nd, 2014 at 12:03:19 PM permalink
Those aren't the bet amounts.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 12:18:33 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Bet Amount Odds
Best Animated Feature -- Rango 1598 -639
Will Michel Hazanavicius Win Best Director? -- YES 2825 -565
Will The Artist Win Best Picture? -- YES 5010 -1002
Best Supporting Actress -- Octavia Spencer 5760 -1152
Adapted Screenplay -- The Descendants 1825 -365
Original Screenplay -- Midnight in Paris 1585 -317



I made these bets in 2011 at PinnacleSports.com. Since then they quit offering bets on the Oscars and since the latest round of arrests, it has been even harder for Americans to get an account there. Back then I bet a lot more because the odds were better. The bets I made tonight were at 5dimes and for much smaller amounts.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 2:25:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Back then I bet a lot more because the odds were better. The bets I made tonight were at 5dimes and for much smaller amounts.



I suppose the days of betting $50K on the Oscars have passed.

Quote: Wizard

February 27th, 2011 at 10:41:07 PM
As I wrote before, never listen to your gut when it comes to the Oscars, just bet every big favorite. Somebody please quote that back to me next year.



As per your request, I am quoting back to you your own advice (from 3 years ago).
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 5:00:32 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I suppose the days of betting $50K on the Oscars have passed.



They will come back when the US legalizes online "sports" betting.

Quote:

As per your request, I am quoting back to you your own advice (from 3 years ago).



You're two years late, but thank you. I stand by what I wrote then. Where I'm deviating this year is going for these prop bets based on multiple awards. In fact, I just bet two more.

The props are how many awards will American Hustle win between these categories:

Best Picture, Costume Design, Director, Film Editing, Leading Actor, Leading Actress, Orignial Screenplay, Production Design, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

I bet under 2.5 at -475 and under 1.5 at -175.

Based on the individual award categories I show American Hustle will win a mean of about 1.1 awards. To be specific:

0.28 awards for Costume Design
0.45 awards for Original Screenplay
0.37 awards for Supporting actress
No hope in the other categories
Total = 1.10
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
March 2nd, 2014 at 5:48:19 PM permalink
I don't even get why you risked $215 to win $1. If you are going to bridge jump on the oscars, you have to go for an amount worth winning. I bet you wouldn't cross the street to pick up a dollar bill.
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:01:45 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I don't even get why you risked $215 to win $1. If you are going to bridge jump on the oscars, you have to go for an amount worth winning. I bet you wouldn't cross the street to pick up a dollar bill.


I imagine he did it to say it was a personal extreme.

Quote: Wizard

1091 Jared Leto - Best Supporting Actor -1400* vs Field wins Best Supporting Actor
2121 Dallas Buyers Club - Best Makeup -2450* vs Field wins Best Makeup
Best Animated Feature Film -- Frozen (-3300)
X Best Animated Short Film -- Get a Horse (-1200)



Good start!
sodawater
sodawater
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 3321
Joined: May 14, 2012
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:24:15 PM permalink
GRAVITY WINS VISUAL EFFECTS. Wiz is $1 richer!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:24:43 PM permalink
Just lost Best Animated Short Film where I laid 785 on Get a Horse, which was upset by Mr. Hublot. This sets a new record for the biggest upset I have ever seen. The previous record was when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture, which was running around -400. In this case I bet $392.50 to win $50, so no worry about me jumping off a bridge. Yet. Let's see what happens with the other awards.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 6:58:24 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Any idea on odds for Mr. Hublot?



No. Wish I had saved that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:12:32 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

GRAVITY WINS VISUAL EFFECTS. Wiz is $1 richer!



Still on track, Wiz!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


 1125 12Years/Alfonso/Matt/Cate/Jared/Lupita +230* vs Any other winner in Big Six Categories 

This will win if the favorite wins in all six major categories. It pretty much hinges on Lupita Nyong'o winning Best Supporting Actress (current odds -142)



YEA
Lupita Nyong’o, "12 Years a Slave"
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:24:40 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

YEA
Lupita Nyong’o, "12 Years a Slave"



Jared Leto and Lupita's speeches were both among the best ever IMO. We'll see what else comes.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Boz
Boz
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:28:44 PM permalink
Ramis will look better in 3 months than Bill Murray does tonight.
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 7:57:01 PM permalink
Best Production Design went to "The Great Gatsby" instead of Gravity. Was that one of the 7 listed categories?
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 213
  • Posts: 12334
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:14:25 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Ramis will look better in 3 months than Bill Murray does tonight.



He looks like he could play the role of your average old homeless guy. Of course, he would be a very funny homeless guy.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:18:00 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Best Production Design went to "The Great Gatsby" instead of Gravity. Was that one of the 7 listed categories?



Fortunately, not. I think GG was favored to win that one. Gravity was +235.

I now need only best director for Gravity to sweep the "Gravity parlay."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 3259
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:19:25 PM permalink
Bono needs to give up his glasses from the '80s
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:38:07 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Fortunately, not. I think GG was favored to win that one. Gravity was +235.

I now need only best director for Gravity to sweep the "Gravity parlay."


DING DING

It looks like American Hustle is going to get no wins out of 10 nominations.
reno
reno
  • Threads: 124
  • Posts: 721
Joined: Jan 20, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:38:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

By the way, that bet on visual effects is the most I've ever laid on a bet in my life, in terms of odds. I bet $215 to win $1.



I'm curious what was going through your mind when you placed the wager. Was it just for fun? Bragging rights? A joke to laugh about, win or lose? Hopefully you weren't chasing comps.

The layman's argument against Martingale is that it's unwise to gamble hundreds of dollars to win $1. And yet here's a serious mathematician risking $215 to win a buck.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26626
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:41:13 PM permalink
Quote: reno

I'm curious what was going through your mind when you placed the wager. Was it just for fun? Bragging rights? A joke to laugh about, win or lose?



It was just to be consistent to my strategy of always betting the big favorites on the Oscars. Laying 215 to 1 seemed kind of ridiculous so I bet to only win a buck.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
pacomartin
pacomartin
  • Threads: 649
  • Posts: 7895
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:44:50 PM permalink
Quote: reno

The layman's argument against Martingale is that it's unwise to gamble hundreds of dollars to win $1. And yet here's a serious mathematician risking $215 to win a buck.



That's not really the layman's argument against Martingale. The layman's argument should be that sooner or later the bet will get huge, and you are just as likely to lose as to win.

The odds of losing the $215 were almost miniscule. There is nothing mathematically unsound.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 101
  • Posts: 14268
Joined: May 21, 2013
March 2nd, 2014 at 8:59:54 PM permalink
It would appear you rocked it, Wiz! Nice job.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
  • Jump to: