Election Betting Odds
Quote: DRichQuote: ChumpChangeWe should ask the Wizard if he believes the 2020 election was stolen like Trump and an entire political party believes.
Why would we care about any one individuals opinion?
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Because he's the one dishing out suspensions for even mentioning the orange man is bad's name for several years running.
Quote: BillHasRetiredI also know I am relatively new. WTH is "DT"? I thought I saw a Free Speech Zone a couple of months ago, but I can't find it
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DT is http://diversitytomorrow.com/ , a website forum.
I believe it was specifically created as a place to send the controversial stuff deemed "Too HOT for WoV!" when the Free Speech Zone was getting imploded.
All other rules will be strictly enforced. This especially includes the rules against personal insults and hate speech.
This may not be the best decision I ever made, but go ahead, say nicely what you have to say about the mid-term elections.
I also bet 2024 sees a Republican President, especially if Biden runs again (which I guess he's already confirmed??). I'm thinking Desantis; basically Trump-lite, and without as much baggage. Then again, I'm not a Republican, so I don't know what the feeling is towards him. The GOP would be incredibly foolish to try and run Trump again.
Inflation and the recession will ease mostly by 2024-25, and whoever the next President is (Dem or Rep) and their party will probably take credit for it, even if it was obviously just a natural resolution.
I think the only way we'll have a chance at a Democratic President in 2024, though, is if inflation and any recession have cleared up considerably by election season.
Quote: JackSpadeI'm surprised VA governor Glenn Youngkin isn't even registering in the odds.
After the election next month, there may be some new plausible candidates. JD Vance in Ohio has a lot of rural and populist appeal. Adam Laxalt and/or Joe Lombardo in Nevada could become rising stars in a state the GOP hopes to turn red.
I'm also curiously awaiting Tulsi Gabbard's next move. She ran as a Democrat last time around but has now ditched the party. Gabbard seems to be cultivating a base of support among Tucker Carlson's viewers by calling out the left's anti-white racism and push for kids to get transgender surgeries. I don't know if she'd run as a Republican, Independent, or possibly even Libertarian. I think many Republican voters would embrace her despite being a former Democrat (Trump was too - or at least he often supported Democrats).
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So glad I can actually respond to this!
JD Vance a national candidate? That’s funny. He’s struggling to lock down his senate race in bright red Ohio, a Trump +8 state. Meanwhile Gov DeWine is cruising to re-election and is polling at like +20. Vance is just an awful candidate.
As for Tulsi, she’s just an attention whore. Always has been. The Dems caught on ages ago so she switched parties. She will never be the nominee for President of either party.
Youngkin and DeSantis are the most palatable future nominees. Assuming Trump doesn’t run and sabotage their chances.
Quote: WizardAfter consulting with the other two active moderators, I have decided to lift the rule against political speech for this thread only and only until the dust has settled from the November 8 election.
All other rules will be strictly enforced. This especially includes the rules against personal insults and hate speech.
This may not be the best decision I ever made, but go ahead, say nicely what you have to say about the mid-term elections.
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I'm glad that you guys came to this decision. I don't know that I'll actually (further) comment in this thread, but it's very difficult to say that you think something will be a good bet without attempting to justify that position, which in the world of politics betting, does involve some level of making statements about what you believe the applicable voters think.
Quote: WizardAfter consulting with the other two active moderators, I have decided to lift the rule against political speech for this thread only and only until the dust has settled from the November 8 election.
All other rules will be strictly enforced. This especially includes the rules against personal insults and hate speech.
This may not be the best decision I ever made, but go ahead, say nicely what you have to say about the mid-term elections.
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LOL
Quote: ams288
So glad I can actually respond to this!
JD Vance a national candidate? That’s funny. He’s struggling to lock down his senate race in bright red Ohio, a Trump +8 state. Meanwhile Gov DeWine is cruising to re-election and is polling at like +20. Vance is just an awful candidate.
As for Tulsi, she’s just an attention whore. Always has been. The Dems caught on ages ago so she switched parties. She will never be the nominee for President of either party.
Youngkin and DeSantis are the most palatable future nominees. Assuming Trump doesn’t run and sabotage their chances.
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A candidate doesn't need to be an actual nominee in order to be a good bet. Riding a candidate's rise from obscurity to a peak of 25% in the odds could be quite profitable. I don't know whether Vance would have national appeal. Obama didn't...until suddenly after being a Senator for a few months he did.
Tulsi is campaigning for Republicans across the country, trying to build up her political capital for something big she must have in mind. If the GOP establishment tries to push Nikki Haley or some other neocon, I could see Tulsi being a big foil in the debates. Remember, Trump's campaign was almost universally dismissed as a publicity stunt in 2016 until he started winning (in his own way) debates.
Quote: WizardAfter consulting with the other two active moderators, I have decided to lift the rule against political speech for this thread only and only until the dust has settled from the November 8 election.
All other rules will be strictly enforced. This especially includes the rules against personal insults and hate speech.
This may not be the best decision I ever made, but go ahead, say nicely what you have to say about the mid-term elections.
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It's an experiment. I intend to stay out of any partisan political discussions or make any partisan statements, and I think dieter will be doing the same. We will be playing bop-a-mole if people start getting angry and make insulting comments about other posters, or break other rules (hate speech, cursing, posting the same message nine consecutive times, etc.)
This feels like a political speech version of that film, The Purge.
Far-right groups are planning online to monitor polling sites on Election Day, some of them armed, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times.
Stewart Rhodes, the leader of a far-right group called Oath Keepers, said his members would draw their weapons if needed.
Rhodes said he wanted to prevent "the radical left" from intimidating voters. Experts say the presence of groups like his would probably make things worse.
A QAnon-affiliated group has also been talking on Telegram, describing "heavily armed MAGA patriots" preparing for Election Day, according to the Times. The Times in turned cited the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks extremists online.
Laws differ by state when it comes to whether you can bring a weapon to a polling site — concealed, unconcealed, or at all.
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A federal judge blocks Texas from limiting voters to one ballot drop-off site per county and forcing them to travel long distances to cast ballots. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is expected to appeal the decision. - Oct. 10, 2022
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UPDATE: In the Arizona drop box voter intimidation case, the Arizona federal court will hold a hearing TOMORROW (Wednesday) at 1pm AZ time on the motion for a temporary restraining order.
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Trump will be the election denier in chief for 2022, so expect endless lawsuits after the polls close.
Down the road, if Trump were to be elected, highly speculative mind you, not really a good thing, IMO, because he would immediately become a lame duck, and the media firestorm to follow would take up all the oxygen in the media air regardless of intentions or accomplishments.
tuttigym
Asked directly by co-moderator Marisa Lagos if he would commit to serving all four years if he’s reelected, Newsom said “yes.”
https://www.kcra.com/article/newsom-vows-finish-four-year-term-reelected-governor-during-debate-dahle/41746765#
Why do politicians feel the need to lie about their presidential ambitions? Newsom is going to be re-elected governor regardless. He could have given some wishy-washy statement about how right now he's focused on governing California. Instead he specifically committed himself to finishing out a four-year term.
How do we know he's lying? Because the odds don't lie:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination
Meanwhile:
DeSantis Dodges Question on Running for President
https://www.newsweek.com/desantis-dodges-question-running-president-governing-florida-1754384
Quote: ChumpChangeI haven't seen The Purge, but have you seen the armed militias intimidating people at the polls?
Cosplaytriots
Gravy Seals
Meal Team Six
Y'all Qaeda
I think there's a few more I've forgotten...
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7544/Who-will-be-Senate-majority-leader-on-Feb-1,-2023
Seems like McConnell is overpriced here. Even if Republicans gain control of the Senate, is "Leader McConnell" inevitable?
Trump and MAGA types loathe him. To the average American, he's just another 80-year old face of Washington, D.C.'s gerontocracy alongside Biden and Pelosi.
How many times is power going to flip back and forth between Schumer and McConnell before either party figures out that voters are sick of this same old/same old routine? Apparently one more time at least. But if Trump makes a series of public demands joined by conservative talk radio hosts, Tucker Carlson, etc. to ditch Mitch, I think there are better than currently reflected odds that McConnell won't be Majority Leader.
Probably in 2023 alone.
Quote: EvenBobI find it odd Nancy Pelosi keeps saying the Congress, both the House and Senate Igoing to remain Democrat when she knows better than anybody that in an off-year election they almost always switch parties and why would this year be any different especially with whose in office being such a low popularity president and we're going thru a huge recession and there is inflation in every industry. What does she know that we don't know about this election. Could be 2020 all over again, could be a done deal. You get away with something once it emboldens you to do it again. There's a reason Al Gore could scream that the election was stolen from him in 2000, and Hillary Clinton to this day claims that it was stolen from her in 2016, Stacey Abrams claims every other day that the gubernatorial election was stolen from her in Georgia, yet if you mention 2020 being anything but the most straightforward election in the history of the world you're canceled. Very very odd. Somebody is hiding something and they don't want it to get out. My bet is not on anybody.
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Nancy Pelosi also said Donny would never be president all throughout 2016, so maybe don’t listen to her?
Quote: EvenBobI find it odd Nancy Pelosi keeps saying the Congress, both the House and Senate Igoing to remain Democrat when she knows better than anybody that in an off-year election they almost always switch parties and why would this year be any different especially with whose in office being such a low popularity president and we're going thru a huge recession and there is inflation in every industry. What does she know that we don't know about this election. Could be 2020 all over again, could be a done deal. You get away with something once it emboldens you to do it again. There's a reason Al Gore could scream that the election was stolen from him in 2000, and Hillary Clinton to this day claims that it was stolen from her in 2016, Stacey Abrams claims every other day that the gubernatorial election was stolen from her in Georgia, yet if you mention 2020 being anything but the most straightforward election in the history of the world you're canceled. Very very odd. Somebody is hiding something and they don't want it to get out. My bet is not on anybody.
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Wait, are conspiracy theories allowed in this thread now?
Because I think some good Lizard People chat would lighten the mood....
Quote: ChumpChangeDo these MAGA politicians even care about how the Senate works? It will be chaos and lawlessness. Might have to lock the doors and shut down DC for good.
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If McConnell isn't coronated Leader again, there will be chaos and lawlessness? There are no alternatives who could both satisfy Trump and keep the Senate in order?
'Woke' Businesses, Meet The New Republican Congress | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/woke-businesses-meet-new-republican-congress
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobI find it odd Nancy Pelosi keeps saying the Congress, both the House and Senate Igoing to remain Democrat when she knows better than anybody that in an off-year election they almost always switch parties and why would this year be any different especially with whose in office being such a low popularity president and we're going thru a huge recession and there is inflation in every industry. What does she know that we don't know about this election. Could be 2020 all over again, could be a done deal. You get away with something once it emboldens you to do it again. There's a reason Al Gore could scream that the election was stolen from him in 2000, and Hillary Clinton to this day claims that it was stolen from her in 2016, Stacey Abrams claims every other day that the gubernatorial election was stolen from her in Georgia, yet if you mention 2020 being anything but the most straightforward election in the history of the world you're canceled. Very very odd. Somebody is hiding something and they don't want it to get out. My bet is not on anybody.
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Wait, are conspiracy theories allowed in this thread now?
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You think it's a theory that if you mention the 2020 election on a social media platform as being anything but the most honest straightforward election in human history that you won't be cancelled? Ever listen to any of the YouTube commentators? They can never mention it or YouTube will cancel them. Yet Hillary can still say to this day that it was stolen from her in 2016.
Quote: EvenBobYet Hillary can still say to this day that it was stolen from her in 2016.
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Can you provide a source, please?
Quote: WizardQuote: EvenBobYet Hillary can still say to this day that it was stolen from her in 2016.
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Can you provide a source, please?
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This is just one of many many many many times she has claimed this on the record that it was stolen in 2016.
RT: zerohedge @zerohedge 4h - Will all TWTR employees resign at midnight on Friday?
$TWTR Company fundamentals are deteriorating as the most active users leave the platform
Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/
These "heavy tweeters" account for less than 10% of monthly overall users but generate 90% of all tweets and half of global revenue.
If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?
Think carefully
Quote: EvenBobThis is just one of many many many many times she has claimed this on the record that it was stolen in 2016.
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That seems like a creative edit there. I would be interested to hear what she said immediately afterward.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888I would be willing to support such an experiment but I am fearful it might go off the rails quickly.
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It will be over very quickly unless you lift all restrictions in the thread on political talk. You cannot have a discussion about the sausage without talking about how the sausage is made. Not possible.
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Isn't that the exact concept of your roulette method thread?
(Bolding mine)
Yes, Philadelphia, Nov 2008. Two people from a black nationalist group showed up outside a majority-minority polling location, waving AR-15 style long guns around. They were eventually arrested. Eric Holder's DOJ withdrew the charges with prejudice before conviction.Quote: ChumpChangeI haven't seen The Purge, but have you seen the armed militias intimidating people at the polls?
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Voter intimidation isn't all on one side or the other, and neither are armed domestic agitators, either. Also, there is a significant distinction between bringing concealed carried weapons into a polling place and brandishing weapons outside a polling place. Both can be defined as "armed", but there's massive differences in the details.
Although it shouldn't need to be said (but this WoV, after all), someone brandishing a firearm outside (or inside!) a polling place should be arrested and prosecuted, whereas concealed-carry should be allowed as per the Bruen decision. I feel poll workers, especially, should be allowed to be armed.
An armed society is a polite society, for one is required to back up their manners with their life.
Two men, who traveled in a Hummer bearing a QAnon logo, were convicted of gun charges and not guilty on three election-related charges.
The pair had faced three election-related charges: interference with primaries/elections, hindering performance of duty and conspiracy-interference with primaries/elections.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-supporters-convicted-bringing-guns-philadelphia-2020-election-rcna51983
LaMotta, as NBC News has reported, was arrested on separate charges in August after online sleuths spotted him in video that showed him inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Macias, who has not been charged in connection with the Capitol attack, was at a meeting between Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and Proud Boys head Enrique Tarrio in a Washington, D.C., parking garage the night of Jan. 5.
The pair, who traveled to Philadelphia in a silver Hummer bearing a QAnon sticker, were found to be carrying a Beretta 9 mm pistol and a concealed Beretta .40-caliber handgun while storing an AR-15-style weapon inside their truck, along with around 160 rounds of ammunition.
Quote: GialmereI'll take a stab at staying on the straight and narrow...
If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?
Think carefully
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RealClearPolitics numbers at this moment are House—R+29.5. Senate—R+3.
BTW, RCP is trying to clean up the pollsters' act by introducing a factor on oversampling, then correcting the poll's results using that factor and using that corrected result in coming up with these numbers.
Fascinating re: Tweeter departure. What platform are they headed off to? Or are they changing their posting to 'long-form' posting, like Substack? If you want to monetize one's maunderings, that's the place to go. Maybe they got tired of being free content creators.Quote: ChumpChangeMusk Tells Bankers He Plans To Close Twitter Deal On Friday
RT: zerohedge @zerohedge 4h - Will all TWTR employees resign at midnight on Friday?
$TWTR Company fundamentals are deteriorating as the most active users leave the platform
Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/
These "heavy tweeters" account for less than 10% of monthly overall users but generate 90% of all tweets and half of global revenue.
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ETA: did you see the demand letter that Twitter employees sent to "Staff, Current and Future Management", where they demanded (!) no layoffs, retention of all employment benefits, and a whole host of other things? Knowing how takeover folks work, it's exactly like signing up to be laid off.
Quote: BillHasRetiredQuote: GialmereI'll take a stab at staying on the straight and narrow...
If the over/under for the House was Republicans gain 16.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If the over/under for the Senate was Republicans gain 0.5 seats, would you take over or under?
If you think these numbers are crazy, what would you set the over/under at?
Think carefully
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RealClearPolitics numbers at this moment are House—R+29.5. Senate—R+3.
BTW, RCP is trying to clean up the pollsters' act by introducing a factor on oversampling, then correcting the poll's results using that factor and using that corrected result in coming up with these numbers.
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RCP is a joke.
They have the GOP picking up the Michigan governorship.
Probably some money to be made there if you believe them and not every single poll released in the past few months!
This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.
Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
Quote: Gandlerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3QXA0b81PU
This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.
Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
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I don’t really want to watch the video, but didn’t the betting markets think Hillary would win in 2016 and Donny would win in 2020?
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I believe the lefty tweeters are migrating to Tribel as we post. I think righties will be banned at Tribel quickly. I don't think Tribel has more users than Parler at this moment, they may be even, but things could change quickly.
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Kornacki has a board he's explaining right now.
He's got 5 Democrat Senate seats and 5 GOP seats with the closest races.
Nevada could be overturned to GOP (Laxalt +0.8%) and PA could be overturned to Democrat (Fetterman +1.3%).
Next closest 4 Dems seats are Georgia (Warnock +0.5%), Arizona (Kelly +2.5%), New Hampshire (Hassan +3.6%), & Colorado (Bennet +7.5%)
Next closest 4 GOP seats are Ohio (Vance +2.0%), Wisconsin (Johnson +2.7%), North Carolina (Budd +3.7%), & Florida (Rubio +6.4%).
This is why betting markets are starting to supplant sites like RCP, 538, Cooks, Sabato, etc, etc. Betting markets are where people back up their data & opinions with money.Quote: ams288{snip for clarity}
RCP is a joke.
They have the GOP picking up the Michigan governorship.
Probably some money to be made there if you believe them and not every single poll released in the past few months!
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Interesting ethical question: do any of these markets deter pollsters from participating in a betting market? I can see a legal case to be made if a poll is skewed so as to affect betting odds, allowing the pollster to clean up. Or one of the staff knowing what the poll shows, and betting before the release of said poll. I'm sure the SEC doesn't have jurisdiction. Who would?
Quote: ams288Quote: Gandlerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3QXA0b81PU
This is an excellent video on election betting and how its significantly more accurate than polls and forecast groups.
Apparently, it illegal to bet on elections in the U.S. in the sense that no State will allow it (West Virginia briefly did for less than an hour, but only one legal bet was placed in that time). Some States even bar somebody who has bet on elections from holding or running for certain offices (something to consider).
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I don’t really want to watch the video, but didn’t the betting markets think Hillary would win in 2016 and Donny would win in 2020?
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Oh yes, he mentioned that and other mistakes. Betting markets do get it wrong. But, they get it wrong less than forecasters and polls.
It's never going to be 100% (if it was 100% it would not be worth taking bets). However, looking at all elections across the Nation (not just presidential) betting markets are a far superior indicator. Of course, the larger the election, the more curveballs can affect it (which is probably why Presidential elections are the most challenging to predict).
Quote: billryanThere are thousands of places to discuss politics. I'd prefer this didn't become one, but I'm just one voice in the wilderness.
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I agree.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022
This isn't a partisan talking point. Obviously, some Democrats are sharp on the debate stage. But tonight I think the GOP picked up PA's Senate seat.
Quote: BillHasRetiredYes, Philadelphia, Nov 2008. Two people from a black nationalist group showed up outside a majority-minority polling location, waving AR-15 style long guns around. They were eventually arrested. Eric Holder's DOJ withdrew the charges with prejudice before conviction.Quote: ChumpChangeI haven't seen The Purge, but have you seen the armed militias intimidating people at the polls?
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Voter intimidation isn't all on one side or the other, and neither are armed domestic agitators, either. Also, there is a significant distinction between bringing concealed carried weapons into a polling place and brandishing weapons outside a polling place. Both can be defined as "armed", but there's massive differences in the details.
Although it shouldn't need to be said (but this WoV, after all), someone brandishing a firearm outside (or inside!) a polling place should be arrested and prosecuted, whereas concealed-carry should be allowed as per the Bruen decision. I feel poll workers, especially, should be allowed to be armed.
An armed society is a polite society, for one is required to back up their manners with their life.
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I'd be willing to bet at any odds someone wishes, that perpetration of voter intimidation occurs by the supporters of one party much more than the supporters of the other party. It isn't close to equivocal. As well, we are seeing alleged armed voter intimidation at drop boxes in Arizona.
I also point out that the individuals in question in 2008 were not armed with firearms-only 1 person was armed and that was with a billy club. This armed individual was forced to leave by the police due his billy club, Furthermore, no person was arrested, and the DOJ only filed a civil suit. The suit was dismissed by the DOJ against all but 1 defendant, against which the DOJ obtained an injunction forbidding him from displaying a weapon within 100 feet of a Philadelphia polling location.
Gene
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7634/Which-2022-Senate-race-will-be-the-closest
Just placed a small bet on AZ being the closest race. Kelly has continued to hold onto a small lead, but it has been narrowing. If Masters' recent momentum is underestimated, the race may essentially be a coin flip on election day.
Getting a better price on AZ than GA, which also looks like a dead heat. I expect the GOP to win in PA and NV by about 4 points each and lose in NH by about 4 points. All other races should have wider margins.
Quote: WizardQuote: GandlerThis thread may as well be transferred to DT given the restrictions (or maybe the "Free Speech Zone" here with the understanding that more can be posted there within reason).
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I have never had much success with the "take it to DT" suggestion. The Free Speech Zone ended a long time ago.
However, what do you think of a lifting of the "no politics" rule during an election season? Said lifting would be limited to just ONE thread about betting the election.
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Open it up 30 days before midterms, and 30 days before Presidential. That's only 30 days of trouble. And maybe 3 days post-election analysis and gripes.
Quote: WizardQuote: EvenBobYet Hillary can still say to this day that it was stolen from her in 2016.
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Can you provide a source, please?
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Tucker Carlson Show tonite has the video.
tuttigym
I had to place a bet on Fetterman losing, though, since he now seems clearly to be toast whereas that wasn't so clear before tonight.
I bet on the GOP winning the OR governorship because the odds in that race do match the polling (+1% GOP) and I'm therefore getting a pretty good price.
I also bet on the Republican losing in WA because Republicans always lose in WA to Democrat incumbents - but surprisingly, a 15% chance of a GOP win was still being priced in. I won't make much on this bet, but it's a near certainty I'll win it.
My biggest payout will be if AZ is the closest Senate race.
Quote: tuttigymTucker Carlson Show tonite has the video.
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EB already provided it.
I have a feeling Hilary was probably referring to the Electoral College, which Fox News, conveniently, clipped out. To that, assuming I'm right, I would say it was putting it too strongly to say the election was "stolen." However, it can't be compared to what Trump did. Clinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
Quote: WizardClinton at least conceded the morning of the election and never called for an armed insurrection.
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When did Trump call for an armed insurrection. Could you provide where Trump said that. In point of fact, the only people armed on July 6th were the police. No arms were confiscated because there were none, it was the first totally unarmed Insurrection in the history of the world. Which is ridiculous because you cannot have an insurrection without weapons.
