Election Betting
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/28/robinhood-launches-presidential-election-betting-market-allowing-users-to-wager-on-harris-and-trump/
Quote: SOOPOOPolymarket now 66-33 in favor of Trump. With him winning by over 65 EC votes surging as well. The market for the regular ‘to win the Presidency’ has exceeded $2.5 billion!!!
If the dollars bet were a small fraction of that, I could see political forces dumping money in as a campaign ad. But at $2.5 billion I think it’s mostly real gamblers using whatever info they have.
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I read this morning that 95% of the money being bet in all the betting markets in the last week has been on Trump and almost none on Kamala. I think it was Betfair in 2016 that closed its Market early because too many people were betting on Hillary and so they paid off all the Hillary bets and closed it down. If people keep dumping this much money on Trump the same thing might happen.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: SOOPOOPolymarket now 66-33 in favor of Trump. With him winning by over 65 EC votes surging as well. The market for the regular ‘to win the Presidency’ has exceeded $2.5 billion!!!
If the dollars bet were a small fraction of that, I could see political forces dumping money in as a campaign ad. But at $2.5 billion I think it’s mostly real gamblers using whatever info they have.
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I read this morning that 95% of the money being bet in all the betting markets in the last week has been on Trump and almost none on Kamala. I think it was Betfair in 2016 that closed its Market early because too many people were betting on Hillary and so they paid off all the Hillary bets and closed it down. If people keep dumping this much money on Trump the same thing might happen.
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The same thing might happen? They’re gonna pay out on the losing candidate before the results are in?
Weird.
Quote: AZDuffmanStory made by "The Atlantic" a rag that has been proven to not use any standards of journalism. Thus it should not be believed.
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Political statement. Three days.
Quote: gordonm888I have observed the following members making posts that may be considered to be excessively political: AutomaticMonkey, AZDuffman, AxelWolf, MDawg. Any moderator may come after me and suspend one or more of you. Please rein in the partisan argumentation.
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Thank you. I will for some on that list. See the suspension list for whom (or is that who?). Warnings stand for the rest.
Rep pop/Rep Prez. 41
Dem pop/Dem Prez. 32
Rep pop/Dem Prez. 3
Dem pop/Rep Prez. 26
You can actually bet against Rep pop/Dem Prez laying around 40-1. Seems like free money.
I think there is GREAT value in both bets that start with ‘Dem pop’.
My offer still stands that I will give you an extra MILLION votes if you want to take Trump over Harris in the popular vote. Cashier is open.
Quote: WizardThank you. I will for some on that list. See the suspension list for whom (or is that who?)?. Warnings stand for the rest.
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Per the suspension list
slotenthusiast
AZDuffman
AutomaticMonkey
show as suspended but looks like Wizard forgot to pull the actual trigger on the Monkey as he still shows as a regular member. This happened once before, with D.Oz.
Quote: MDawglooks like Wizard forgot to pull the actual trigger on the Monkey as he still shows as a regular member. This happened once before, with D.Oz.
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Thank you. I shall start his time with today.
Quote: WizardQuote: MDawglooks like Wizard forgot to pull the actual trigger on the Monkey as he still shows as a regular member. This happened once before, with D.Oz.
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Thank you. I shall start his time with today.
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If you announced he was suspended yesterday, and he thought he was suspended yesterday, is it fair to extend his suspension for your error?
Quote:Harris Aides Quietly Grow More Bullish on Defeating Trump
Officials within the Harris campaign and people with whom they have shared candid assessments believe she remains in a solid position in the Northern “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, saying internal polling shows her slightly ahead in all three — though by as little as half a percentage point.
They think she remains competitive across the four Sun Belt battleground states. Arizona and North Carolina appear to be the toughest swing states for Ms. Harris, these Democrats said, and they feel better about Georgia and Nevada
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/us/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.V04.kly0.SbLHrX7gJek-&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Interesting to hear what the campaigns are seeing vs. what the betting markets are thinking.
a) The race is close. D'oh.
b) There are all sorts of uncertainties, including an element of untrustworthiness in the way that certain polls model the electorate as they weigh and interpret their raw polling data as they transform it into reported numbers..
c) However, I personally see quite a bit of evidence indicating a late shift in the electorate. I think land is beginning to slide. However, there are already 44 million early votes that have been locked in.
I personally would not bet money on Harris winning the popular vote but I am too cautious to bet on Trump winning it either.
Quote: HunterhillLatest NH poll shows Trump leading. Kamala for the first time. Not sure how this will affect the betting markets
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Yes. He's also showing strength in New Mexico, and will hold a rally in Albuquerque on Halloween.
It's stuff like this that explains the disconnect between the polls and the betting pools. Punters see the front line shifting to New Hampshire and New Mexico. Some even think New York is in play. It all seems far-fetched, but NH + NM = a path to victory without a rust belt state, so it's obviously worth it to them to make a campaign stop.
Harris wins: CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, NE (one vote), WI, MI, IL, MN, VA, DE, MD, NY, CT, RI, VT, NJ, NH, MA, ME (except one vote), HI, DC. Finally, the biggy -- PA.
Trump wins: Everything else.
Another way to look at it is states that will flip from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
If my math is right, the result will be:
Trump: 259
Harris: 279
Flips: AZ, NV, GA, PA, WI
Trump: 297
Harris: 241
Both are on the FL ballot
If the polls show tied, trump is way way way ahead.
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
I’ve made money the last three elections by going with the stats people.
So my bets are going to be split between a Harris win and a narrow Trump win.
It could be a Trump blowout and I’ll lose everything. But there’s no money to be made on that because that’s what the bettors are going with.
Quote: FinsRuleThe race is being bet like it’s 65-35. The political stats people say it’s more like 53-47.
I’ve made money the last three elections by going with the stats people.
So my bets are going to be split between a Harris win and a narrow Trump win.
It could be a Trump blowout and I’ll lose everything. But there’s no money to be made on that because that’s what the bettors are going with.
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I find that when the herd is going one way, the smart money goes the opposite.
Traders seem to be taking their cues from Trump’s rising odds in betting markets. But betting odds are completely different from polls, which show a dead heat. Betting markets show a probability of winning, which is different from the marginal lead in a poll. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research points out that in betting markets, anything less than 66% odds for Trump is the equivalent of a toss-up. Trump would only be clearly favored if his odds in better markets were above 66%, and they’re not.
Analysts at Citi noticed this disparity during a recent conference on international finance in Washington, D.C. “Investors are almost uniformly expecting a Trump victory,” Citi explained in an Oct. 28 analysis. “Political analysts, on the other hand, still see the race as very tough, and biased to Trump, but close enough to 50-50.”
The reason for that possible bias toward Trump is polling inaccuracy. In 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated support for Trump. His actual vote tallies outperformed polls by about 1 to 3 percentage points. With this year’s polls basically tied, Trump would be the obvious winner if he once again outperformed by a couple of percentage points.
But pollsters have been trying to fix those inaccuracies, and this year’s polls might be more or less correct.
Trump seems to have a ceiling of about 47% of the vote nationwide. He can still win the Electoral College by winning key swing states, even if he stays below his nationwide ceiling. But Trump’s upper limit could limit his tally in swing states too.
It's a warning that markets may be overstating the odds of a Trump win, with Trump trades unwinding rapidly if he ends up losing. If Harris does prevail, that could trigger a quick drop in interest rates, a perceived decline in inflation risks, and the possible collapse of DJT’s share price, which my opinion on that is that DJT's stock price is going to drop rapidly after the election no matter which side wins, due to a sell off.
Quote: FinsRuleThe race is being bet like it’s 65-35. The political stats people say it’s more like 53-47.
I’ve made money the last three elections by going with the stats people.
So my bets are going to be split between a Harris win and a narrow Trump win.
It could be a Trump blowout and I’ll lose everything. But there’s no money to be made on that because that’s what the bettors are going with.
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Just an observation relating to betting, the “political stats people” portion exists in almost the identical form it did in prior 3 elections, while the amount/type or people of gambling on elections has not been as static static, certainly more betting being done now.
Just saying i don’t believe arms length comparisons are really possible.
Quote: MDawgTrump traders could be courting some big losses
Traders seem to be taking their cues from Trump’s rising odds in betting markets. But betting odds are completely different from polls, which show a dead heat. Betting markets show a probability of winning, which is different from the marginal lead in a poll. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research points out that in betting markets, anything less than 66% odds for Trump is the equivalent of a toss-up. Trump would only be clearly favored if his odds in better markets were above 66%, and they’re not.
Analysts at Citi noticed this disparity during a recent conference on international finance in Washington, D.C. “Investors are almost uniformly expecting a Trump victory,” Citi explained in an Oct. 28 analysis. “Political analysts, on the other hand, still see the race as very tough, and biased to Trump, but close enough to 50-50.”
The reason for that possible bias toward Trump is polling inaccuracy. In 2016 and 2020, polls underestimated support for Trump. His actual vote tallies outperformed polls by about 1 to 3 percentage points. With this year’s polls basically tied, Trump would be the obvious winner if he once again outperformed by a couple of percentage points.
But pollsters have been trying to fix those inaccuracies, and this year’s polls might be more or less correct.
Trump seems to have a ceiling of about 47% of the vote nationwide. He can still win the Electoral College by winning key swing states, even if he stays below his nationwide ceiling. But Trump’s upper limit could limit his tally in swing states too.
It's a warning that markets may be overstating the odds of a Trump win, with Trump trades unwinding rapidly if he ends up losing. If Harris does prevail, that could trigger a quick drop in interest rates, a perceived decline in inflation risks, and the possible collapse of DJT’s share price, which my opinion on that is that DJT's stock price is going to drop rapidly after the election no matter which side wins, due to a sell off.
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I agree with you that the major uncertainty seems to be whether pollsters have fixed the inaccuracies that caused them to underestimate Trump's vote by as much as 7% in individual states (like Pennsylvania) in 2016.
I don't agree that Trump's ceiling is 47%. The RCP National Average currently has Trump at 48.4%.and the latest poll (10/25 to 10/29, 3036 respondents) is Atlas Intel and they have Trump at 50%. So your 47% ceiling is "so 5 minutes ago."
The question really is whether the polls are buggered.
Quote: HunterhillI think you missed Massachusetts, you can’t really think that Trump will win Mass
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Thanks, you're right.
Quote: WizardLast year I posted my state by state predictions. I got 49 out of 50 right, missing only Georgia. Likewise, I present my 2024 predictions now. I invite others to hazard their guesses too. The winner goes to the one picks the most states correctly. In the event that results in a tie, then the electoral college count will break it. The winner shall win pride and a beer from yours truly.
Harris wins: CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, NE (one vote), WI, MI, IL, MN, VA, DE, MD, NY, CT, RI, VT, NJ, NH, MA, ME (except one vote), HI. Finally, the biggy -- PA.
Trump wins: Everything else.
Another way to look at it is states that will flip from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
If my math is right, the result will be:
Trump: 259
Harris: 279
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I think you meant to include DC with 3 electoral votes. Even with that I get 276 - 262 using the interactive map at 270towin. Maybe I’m missing something.
Quote: JimRockfordQuote: WizardLast year I posted my state by state predictions. I got 49 out of 50 right, missing only Georgia. Likewise, I present my 2024 predictions now. I invite others to hazard their guesses too. The winner goes to the one picks the most states correctly. In the event that results in a tie, then the electoral college count will break it. The winner shall win pride and a beer from yours truly.
Harris wins: CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, NE (one vote), WI, MI, IL, MN, VA, DE, MD, NY, CT, RI, VT, NJ, NH, MA, ME (except one vote), HI. Finally, the biggy -- PA.
Trump wins: Everything else.
Another way to look at it is states that will flip from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
If my math is right, the result will be:
Trump: 259
Harris: 279
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I think you meant to include DC with 3 electoral votes. Even with that I get 276 - 262 using the interactive map at 270towin. Maybe I’m missing something.
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You are correct. It’s a 276-262 scenario.
I think this is a likely outcome. That is, Trump wins all the 7 swing states except MI.Quote: GialmereI'll play...
Flips: AZ, NV, GA, PA, WI
Trump: 297
Harris: 241
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If Harris hangs onto MI *and* WI, then it's 251 to 287, which is what the polling average on 270toWin currently shows (as presented in my dynamically updating table.
Nate Silver's article today has a ton of evidence (his style) about why early voting demographics are a *horrible* predictor of actual results.Quote: ams288Make of this what you will:
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
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Quote: MichaelBluejayNate Silver's article today has a ton of evidence (his style) about why early voting demographics are a *horrible* predictor of actual results.Quote: ams288Make of this what you will:
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
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"And yet we get the same frankly amateurish analysis of the early vote in every election." Nate silver
Yep.
Quote: MichaelBluejayNate Silver's article today has a ton of evidence (his style) about why early voting demographics are a *horrible* predictor of actual results.Quote: ams288Make of this what you will:
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
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I’d guess they’re a better indicator than betting markets or RCP’s biased averages.
Allan Lichtman has been consistently picking Harris and is rarely wrong
Harris, Republican Senate, Republican House - +1600
Trump wins by 35-64 - +600
I bet a decent chunk of change on the first one. It would be my biggest win on a single event. Bigger than my win 4 years ago on Biden. Trump 35-64 would be a fine consolation prize.
It’s weird that I can’t root for my bets on this forum. Maybe I can ask the mods. Is there a way I can express happiness or dissatisfaction with polls or vote total without being banned as political speech? Probably not…
Harris around 60-40 in popular vote.
I’m still offering Trump + 1,000,000 in the popular vote. Can’t see NY, Mass, Cali, Illinois not putting Harris over by that 1,000,000.
Lake was at 20% last week. Now up to 30%. I thought that race was over. Guess not.
Quote: ams288Quote: MichaelBluejayNate Silver's article today has a ton of evidence (his style) about why early voting demographics are a *horrible* predictor of actual results.Quote: ams288Make of this what you will:
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
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I’d guess they’re a better indicator than betting markets or RCP’s biased averages.
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I see you didn’t read Silver’s article, which demolishes that guess with data.
Quote: WizardLast year I posted my state by state predictions. I got 49 out of 50 right, missing only Georgia. Likewise, I present my 2024 predictions now. I invite others to hazard their guesses too. The winner goes to the one picks the most states correctly. In the event that results in a tie, then the electoral college count will break it. The winner shall win pride and a beer from yours truly.
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(1) I am very bad at these sorts of things and will likely be wrong on multiple states.
(2) Despite (1) above, I’ll take a freeroll on a free beer
I predict Harris wins: HI, WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, 1 vote in NE, MN, WI, MI, IL, VA, NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VT, NH, ME (except for 1)
Trump wins the rest (including the 1 vote in ME and the rest of the votes in NE.)
Total: Harris 251; Trump 287
Quote: SOOPOO
I’m still offering Trump + 1,000,000 in the popular vote. Can’t see NY, Mass, Cali, Illinois not putting Harris over by that 1,000,000.
If that is a moneyline I'll take some action there.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
I’m still offering Trump + 1,000,000 in the popular vote. Can’t see NY, Mass, Cali, Illinois not putting Harris over by that 1,000,000.
If that is a moneyline I'll take some action there.
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Even money. I’ll go as high as $100. How much you want?
If you don’t want the 1,000,000 vote head start I’ll give you 2-1. My max risk is $100 against your $50. According to the betting odds that’s +EV for you.
Quote: WizardLast year I posted my state by state predictions. I got 49 out of 50 right, missing only Georgia. Likewise, I present my 2024 predictions now. I invite others to hazard their guesses too. The winner goes to the one picks the most states correctly. In the event that results in a tie, then the electoral college count will break it. The winner shall win pride and a beer from yours truly.
Harris wins: CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, NE (one vote), WI, MI, IL, MN, VA, DE, MD, NY, CT, RI, VT, NJ, NH, MA, ME (except one vote), HI, DC. Finally, the biggy -- PA.
Trump wins: Everything else.
Another way to look at it is states that will flip from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
If my math is right, the result will be:
Trump: 259
Harris: 279
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I’ll go same as you except….. add Arizona to the Harris camp. She may benefit from ‘opposite coattails’ from the Senate race.
I would also not be shocked if Harris flips North Carolina as well. The Republicans floating the ‘we’ll take the electors regardless’ trial balloon is indicative of how close that state actually is.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: WizardLast year I posted my state by state predictions. I got 49 out of 50 right, missing only Georgia. Likewise, I present my 2024 predictions now. I invite others to hazard their guesses too. The winner goes to the one picks the most states correctly. In the event that results in a tie, then the electoral college count will break it. The winner shall win pride and a beer from yours truly.
Harris wins: CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO, NE (one vote), WI, MI, IL, MN, VA, DE, MD, NY, CT, RI, VT, NJ, NH, MA, ME (except one vote), HI, DC. Finally, the biggy -- PA.
Trump wins: Everything else.
Another way to look at it is states that will flip from 2020 will be Arizona and Georgia.
If my math is right, the result will be:
Trump: 259
Harris: 279
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I’ll go same as you except….. add Arizona to the Harris camp. She may benefit from ‘opposite coattails’ from the Senate race.
I would also not be shocked if Harris flips North Carolina as well. The Republicans floating the ‘we’ll take the electors regardless’ trial balloon is indicative of how close that state actually is.
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News reports indicate Kamala has pulled out of North Carolina to focus on VA. Not political statement just news.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AZDuffmanQuote: SOOPOO
I’m still offering Trump + 1,000,000 in the popular vote. Can’t see NY, Mass, Cali, Illinois not putting Harris over by that 1,000,000.
If that is a moneyline I'll take some action there.
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Even money. I’ll go as high as $100. How much you want?
If you don’t want the 1,000,000 vote head start I’ll give you 2-1. My max risk is $100 against your $50. According to the betting odds that’s +EV for you.
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I thought it was a moneyline not a point spread. Let me consider.
Quote: unJonQuote: ams288Quote: MichaelBluejayNate Silver's article today has a ton of evidence (his style) about why early voting demographics are a *horrible* predictor of actual results.Quote: ams288Make of this what you will:
Quote:12.8 million have voted early in the 7 swing states. 1,286,048 more women have voted than men, 55.1-44.9%. The gender gap grew by 80,964 from Monday. Gender turnout gap is F+13%-pts in PA, F+12 in MI and GA, F+11 in NC, F+8 in WI, F+4 in AZ, F+0 in NV.
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I’d guess they’re a better indicator than betting markets or RCP’s biased averages.
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I see you didn’t read Silver’s article, which demolishes that guess with data.
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Correct.
I lost any respect for Silver years ago. (Can’t explain why without getting into political speech).
P.S. Welcome to the board Imthefish.
Quote: EvenBobPolyMarket is back where it was, Trump ahead by 30 in the betting market. And Trump goes up in National polls on RNC by 1/10 of a point every day. It's probably more than that because a lot of those polls are more than a week old.
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I think “RNC” was a Freudian slip on your part. I’m assuming you mean RCP.
Quote: FinsRuleMy lock for this election is that most people will say afterwards “The polls were wrong.”
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For Trump the polls are always wrong because they tremendously over sampled the Democrats in 2016 and in 2020. You can bet they are doing the same thing this time. So yes the polls will be wrong just like they were wrong in 1980 when Carter was in a dead heat with Reagan four days before the election and Carter lost in one of the biggest landslides in American history. But not according to the polls.
