Election Betting
That said, as of this post, on Feb 12, 2020, one may lay -150 on Trump to win the general election at 5dimes. I personally bet this. The line moved to -160 and I bet it again. The most that may be bet is $250 or to win $250, whichever is more. If any forum members I personally know wish to take the other side (betting against Trump), please PM me.
Here are the lines on the Democratic Primary winner. Wins are are a "to one" basis.
| Name | Pays | Adj. Prob |
|---|---|---|
| Sanders | 1.35 | 39.4% |
| Bloomberg | 2.4 | 27.2% |
| Buttigieg | 5.5 | 14.3% |
| Biden | 12 | 7.1% |
| Klobuchar | 14 | 6.2% |
| Clinton | 25 | 3.6% |
| Warren | 50 | 1.8% |
| Steyer | 450 | 0.2% |
| Gabbard | 500 | 0.2% |
| Total | 100.0% |
Note: Table corrected
I would like to end the thread by again stating that political statements are not allowed and forum administrators will be policing this thread carefully for that.
I win.
Quote: EvenBobIf I bet $100 on Trump, how much would
I win.
If you had bet before me at 5dimes, then $66.67.
Quote: Wizard(snip) Here are the lines on the Democratic Primary winner. Wins are are a "to one" basis.
Name Pays Adj. Prob Sanders 1.35 47.5% Bloomberg 2.4 26.7% Buttigieg 5.5 11.7% Biden 12 5.3% Klobuchar 14 4.6% Clinton 25 2.6% Warren 50 1.3% Steyer 450 0.1% Gabbard 500 0.1% Total 100.0%
(snip)
How did you get the "Adj. Prob" figures?
Does this table mean you think Sanders is good value for the "Democratic Primary winner" (about +11.6% EV if I am reading it correctly) ?
Quote: WizardIf you had bet before me at 5dimes, then $66.67.
So I would get my $100 back, plus
$66? Isn't this what happened with
that Irish betting place in 2016?
Hillary was such a lock that they
stopped taking bets on her a
month before the election
and paid everybody off so
they wouldn't lose any more
money. Will they do that with
Trump this year? It looks like
the same situation.
101 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election -165
102 Field wins Presidential Election +145
171 Republican wins Presidential Election -155
172 Democrat wins Presidential Election +135
173 Republican wins Presidential Election -151
174 Field wins Presidential Election +131
175 Democrat wins Presidential Election +138
176 Field wins Presidential Election -158
Is it as close to a certainty as you can get that Trump will be Republican Party's nominee for president of the United States ?
If yes, then surely "prop 173" is currently the best value at -151
----
Update:
If you think a "third party candidate" has a greater than about 1.1% chance of winning the election, then "prop 176" @ -158 is probably the best one to choose (if you are betting against a Democrat winning the election).
Quote: ksdjdjHow did you get the "Adj. Prob" figures?
By posting when I'm too tired and making mistakes. Here is a corrected table.
| Name | Pays | Adj. Prob |
|---|---|---|
| Sanders | 1.35 | 39.4% |
| Bloomberg | 2.4 | 27.2% |
| Buttigieg | 5.5 | 14.3% |
| Biden | 12 | 7.1% |
| Klobuchar | 14 | 6.2% |
| Clinton | 25 | 3.6% |
| Warren | 50 | 1.8% |
| Steyer | 450 | 0.2% |
| Gabbard | 500 | 0.2% |
| Total | 100.0% |
Quote:Does this table mean you think Sanders is good value for the "Democratic Primary winner" (about +11.6% EV if I am reading it correctly) ?
Based on the corrected table, a bet on Bernie would return 0.394*2.35 =92.59%, for a house edge of 7.41%.
Quote: EvenBobSo I would get my $100 back, plus
$66? Isn't this what happened with
that Irish betting place in 2016?
Hillary was such a lock that they
stopped taking bets on her a
month before the election
and paid everybody off so
they wouldn't lose any more
money. Will they do that with
Trump this year? It looks like
the same situation.
As I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.
Quote: WizardAs I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.
After a quick search of "sports books pay early on Hillary 2016", i found the links below:
The bookie was Paddy Power (see links below, if you want more info about it).
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/after-paying-out-early-on-a-clinton-win-trump-victory-costs-irish-bookmaker-5-million.html
https://www.smh.com.au/business/election-2016-bookmakers-pay-dearly-for-unexpected-donald-trump-win-20161110-gsm0we.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/irish-bookie-already-paying-out-on-hillary-clinton-victory-bets-2016-10-18
---
I may have mentioned this in a different thread, but the odds for Trump got out to about $20 in the "live-betting" on betfair, in the last election.
Quote: WizardAs I recall, at 5dimes as the election was days away you had to lay about 10 to 1 on Hilary. Some sports book, I don't recall which, did quit taking bets and paid bets on Clinton early.
I forget which as well, but they did the same with Obama in 2008. Trump -150 is probably a fair bet.
As to the table, There is probably value on Bernie at the moment. I'd say take Bernie and Bloomberg as a hedge. At the moment the rest seem impossible, After next two weeks Bernie may require you to lay money.
The dark horse issue is do they play games with readding supers or some other way to railroad him at the convention. But I think that will be all talk and no action. In the end they will decide to win or go down with who is picked and get a better system in 2024.
Quote: WizardBy posting when I'm too tired and making mistakes. Here is a corrected table.
Name Pays Adj. Prob Sanders 1.35 39.4% Bloomberg 2.4 27.2% Buttigieg 5.5 14.3% Biden 12 7.1% Klobuchar 14 6.2% Clinton 25 3.6% Warren 50 1.8% Steyer 450 0.2% Gabbard 500 0.2% Total 100.0%
Based on the corrected table, a bet on Bernie would return 0.394*2.35 =92.59%, for a house edge of 7.41%.
Odds on the Dems will really come into focus after Nevada and South Carolina. With Pete's strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, it remains to be seen if he can garner any support in more diverse states. That seems to be the only reason right now Bernie isn't chalk. If Pete really performs as badly in Nevada and South Carolina as he's polling amongst Latino's and African Americans, then Bernie will be chalk pretty quickly.
I see 5Dimes offering the field against Bloomberg at -280, that appears to be an incredible bet to me.
Quote: SM777
I see 5Dimes offering the field against Bloomberg at -280, that appears to be an incredible bet to me.
If it wasn't illegal to bet on the election I'd put down whatever they would allow me on that bet!
Quote: SOOPOOIf it wasn't illegal to bet on the election I'd put down whatever they would allow me on that bet!
I would argue making the bet isn't illegal, just using US banks to facilitate the bet. That is a nice benefit to Bitcoin. However, my last Bitcoin transaction took 22 hours to clear.
You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).
Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.
Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.
Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.
67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.
If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.
Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.
Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.
Quote: beachbumbabsBernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee. Trump wants to run against him, so the Rs are putting their thumb on the scale a bit.
You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).
Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.
Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.
Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.
67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.
If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.
Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.
Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.
I’ll bet $100 against your $50 that Bloomberg is NOT the Democrat nominee for President! Interested?
Quote: beachbumbabsBernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee. Trump wants to run against him, so the Rs are putting their thumb on the scale a bit.
You have to look at both Iowa and NH results as subgroups to see what's going on. Put all votes for Sanders and Warren in one group. Put all the others except Bloomberg in the other (because he wasn't on the ballot).
Bernie /Warren got roughly 35% of the party support. The others roughly 65%. That's holding roughly true in national polls as well.
Then you add in the Bloomberg effect. He is specifically running against the Sanders/Warren revolutionary policies. He's also unhappy with Biden, but what got him in it a few months ago was the trend toward socialistic support.
Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against, as a direct contrast. Has governed 10M people (more than the governors of most states), has actual provable billionaire wealth, not afraid to hit back or call out the truth.
67% of Dems say it's more important to beat Trump than to care about a particular issue. Of those issue-bent, 80% are Sanders/Warren supporters.
If you want to know who the candidate will be, watch the African-American and minority poll breakouts. They are finding reasons to switch from Biden to Bloomberg in a hurry in the last 2 weeks. For example, as they navigated their distaste for stop and frisk this last week, theur support for Biden has dropped 22 points, and Bloomberg has gone up 17 points, in one poll from yesterday. For them, it's an existential thing, several steps above a preference. And they're 35-40% of activist voters in the party.
Anyway, for candidate, Bloomberg straight up is the bet, or against the field, or outright for President. Bloomberg, in the general, will pull from the full spectrum, including a decent share of current Trump support.
Not my guy. Not an ad for him. Just following closely, and that's how it's playing out.
This isn't it.
Quote: SOOPOOI’ll bet $100 against your $50 that Bloomberg is NOT the Democrat nominee for President! Interested?
No, because I don't want him to be President either. I don't like taking bets in favor of an outcome I don't want to see. Ploppy attitude, but how I roll. Thanks for the offer, though.
Quote: beachbumbabsNo, because I don't want him to be President either. I don't like taking bets in favor of an outcome I don't want to see. Ploppy attitude, but how I roll. Thanks for the offer, though.
I'm almost the exact opposite! I figure if I liked Bloomberg (I don't) I'd bet against him. So I either win money or my candidate wins. Kind of like hedging....
Quote: beachbumbabs
Bloomberg is the most likely candidate at this point, given that he's the meanest guy up there, and the best equipped, so most embarrassing, guy for Trump to have to run against,
Reasons to bet against Bloomberg:
Too short, even he himself says that.
No name recognition outside of NY.
Wayyy too old, 79 his first year in office.'
Looks like that mean uncle you avoid at Tgiving.
Totally unlikable personality
Bernie has a huge base, packs them is at
rallies. He will be very hard to stop from
being the nominee. Safe bet.
Quote: EvenBob
Bernie has a huge base, packs them is at
rallies. He will be very hard to stop from
being the nominee. Safe bet.
Exactly. Plus this is his second rodeo.
Now if someone can explain what is meant by the GOP having their thumbs in the scales means or how such a comment is not a blatant violation of no politics that would be great.
Meanwhile, the former mayor of South Bend is an interesting wild card. Can Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling? And what states does he appeal to?
Quote: GialmereCan Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling?
Look at just one criteria. Bernie packs
stadiums, Buttigieg packs Jr High
lunch rooms. These are the things
horse bettors look for, is the track
dry or wet.
Quote: beachbumbabsBernie is a bad bet to actually be the nominee.
Here are the going lines on Bernie to the the Dem nominee:
Yes +135
No -155
How about we split the the difference, you bet the no against me at -145 odds?
This is a non-trivial probability factor with Bernie, Bloomberg and even with Elizabeth Warren (age 70.).
Running for President is high stress and campaigning involves a lot of physical wear and tear. And these are elderly people who are at higher risk anyway.
That had to have been the most positive EV wager of my life. Regardless of what the polls/news said, many of us knew that it was a 50/50 race...no way was Trump a 1 in 6 long shot.
Quote: GialmereHmm... You have to figure Sanders will win California while Bloomberg will win New York and probably New Jersey. What about Texas and Florida?
Meanwhile, the former mayor of South Bend is an interesting wild card. Can Buttigieg get a bandwagon effect rolling? And what states does he appeal to?
Buttigeg is gay, that's a huge risk. Enough people don't want a first gentleman.
Quote: Wizard
That said, as of this post, on Feb 12, 2020, one may lay -150 on Trump to win the general election at 5dimes. I personally bet this. The line moved to -160 and I bet it again. The most that may be bet is $250 or to win $250, whichever is more. If any forum members I personally know wish to take the other side (betting against Trump), please PM me.
You can buy shares of Trump right now at PredictIt for 0.55 = -122. The limit is $850. There is a 10 percent commission on any profits (and only profits) and a 5 percent withdrawal fee. The latter can be postponed (and minimized) by never withdrawing until you are ready to retire on political markets completely.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
Quote: Ace2Mid- October 2016 I bet £100 on Trump at +500. I had a friend in London make the bet for me, it was at Betfair or Ladbrokes, I don’t recall which.
That had to have been the most positive EV wager of my life. Regardless of what the polls/news said, many of us knew that it was a 50/50 race...no way was Trump a 1 in 6 long shot.
That is the effect of outsiders setting the odds I think. I might have taken some of that had I been in London. Except for my rule of not betting what you care about.
What kind of odds can I get that Donald loses the popular vote by 3+ million but wins the EC?
Quote: ams288
What kind of odds can I get that Donald loses the popular vote by 3+ million but wins the EC?
I think fair odds you should get at least 2-1.
Easy to see him lose....
Easy to see him win but lose popular by less than 3 million.
I wonder what the odds are on DJT winning the popular vote? 20%?
Quote: onenickelmiracleButtigeg is gay, that's a huge risk. Enough people don't want a first gentleman.
While I agree it would be an issue in the general election, would his sexual orientation be a liability in the Democrat primary? So far, based on his showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the answer would seem to be no.
It has to be,.The Democrats won't try it again after gambling with Hillary. 😎Quote: GialmereIt seems Bloomberg is leading in Florida (which makes sense with all the New York retirees living there), while Sanders has a substantial lead in Texas. Is there a line for a brokered convention?
While I agree it would be an issue in the general election, would his sexual orientation be a liability in the Democrat primary? So far, based on his showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the answer would seem to be no.
Who is betting on her?
Yes. It's dead easy to wager on the US election, here and we don't pay tax on any winnings.
https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV10187652/2020-us-presidential-election
In case that's firewalled by geolocation...
UK Notation for the odds.
donald trump 8/15
Michael Bloomberg 7/2
Bernie Sanders 9/2
Pete Buttigieg 20/1
Amy Klobuchar 25/1
Joe Biden 25/1
Hillary Clinton 50/1
Mike Pence 100/1
Elizabeth Warren 100/1
Michelle Obama 125/1
Nikki Haley 150/1
Tulsi Gabbard 150/1
Mitt Romney, Tom Steyer, Ivanka Trump, Bill Weld, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, 200/1
Quote: OnceDearI was asked if it's easy for UK folk to bet on your election.
Yes. It's dead easy to wager on the US election, here and we don't pay tax on any winnings.
https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/OB_EV10187652/2020-us-presidential-election
I'm quite sure they wouldn't take a bet from the US. They have lots of sports books here in Vegas and are motivated to not jeopardize that.
In other news, Trump dropped to -150 at 5dimes so popped it again.
I am thinking about betting on Bernie to be the Dem nominee. I plan to attend on of his rallies this Friday. Any Vegas locals want to join me?
Meanwhile, although Buttigieg currently has a narrow delegate lead, Sanders has opened up a 10-point lead in a new national poll of registered Democrat voters.
Delegate Count
Buttigieg: 23
Sanders: 21
Warren: 8
Klobuchar: 7
Biden: 6
Bloomberg: 0 (yet to appear on a ballot)
All others: 0
Morning Consult Poll
Sanders: 29%
Biden: 19%
Bloomberg: 18%
Buttigieg: 11%
Warren: 10%
Klobuchar: 5%
[margin of error +/- 2%]
Quote: beachbumbabs
I'm not sure how that rumor got started, but Hillary would be nearly useless in any traditional VP scenario.
She wouldn't be VP for long.
Bloomberg has no desire or
energy to be president, he
just wants to get Trump. He
would step down after 3
months for health reasons
and Hillary would finally
have what she wants. Good
plan, but don't bet on it.
They're both too old and have
too many skeletons. Mostly
they're too old. Hillary had no
energy 4 years ago, she has
zero now. All bets are on Trump.
Quote: EvenBobShe wouldn't be VP for long.
Bloomberg has no desire or
energy to be president, he
just wants to get Trump. He
would step down after 3
months for health reasons
and Hillary would finally
have what she wants. Good
plan, but don't bet on it.
They're both too old and have
too many skeletons. Mostly
they're too old. Hillary had no
energy 4 years ago, she has
zero now. All bets are on Trump.
So are we done discussing election betting and just back onto politics now?
Quote: ams288So are we done discussing election betting and just back onto politics now?
Correct. Read BBBs last post. Discussing Val Demmings. And Abrams. I'm happy we are no longer constrained by silly no politics rule. Obviously!
Quote: ams288So are we done discussing election betting and just back onto politics now?
As far as I am concerned it was made fair game when a moderator complained about the GOP having their thumbs on the scale of the Democrat Party primary. Or something like that.
Back to the topic, Bloomberg is as tricky a bet as the XFL. Historically candidates who skip the early primaries and just throw money at the middle do not last. Bloomberg is not doing much if any retail politics. He is building a ground game. I read about how his campaign could build a house out of iPhones and tablets.
But we really do not know how the primary voter will react. This one really comes down to "Democrats" vs. "likely primary voters." The later probably do not appreciate a latecomer Daddy Warbucks trying to buy the thing.
Trump was in the primary from the start. He was not just in but the center of all the debates. He *convinced* the GOP Primary voter over time to vote for him. Bloomberg is all but saying "I want to buy your vote!" He right now is like some kid who's dad bought him the best car and team for the Daytona 500, including having an experience driver make sure the car qualifies. Can the kid do well in the pack? How will he react when Bernie rubs him? Will voters accept it?
That is what makes Bloomberg a tricky bet. Like you could look at an XFL roster and make some kind of calculated decision, it will all be different on game/election day.
Quote: EvenBobShe wouldn't be VP for long.
Bloomberg has no desire or
energy to be president, he
just wants to get Trump. He
would step down after 3
months for health reasons
and Hillary would finally
have what she wants. Good
plan, but don't bet on it.
They're both too old and have
too many skeletons. Mostly
they're too old. Hillary had no
energy 4 years ago, she has
zero now. All bets are on Trump.
Warning issued for making a political statement. I don't see anything to do with a bet in your post, except for that toss-out at the end.
Quote: WizardWarning issued for making a political statement. I don't see anything to do with a bet in your post, except for that toss-out at the end.
How do you talk about political
betting without talking about
politics. That's like banning the
discussion of the horse, the track
and the jockey from a racing forum.
Nevada Poll Averages
Sanders: 24.2%
Biden: 15.9%
Warren: 11.1%
Buttigieg: 10.4%
Bloomberg: 8.4% (did not file for Nevada caucus)
Steyer: 8.0%
Klobuchar: 5.1%
Gabbard: 1.2%
There will be a debate in Las Vegas this Wednesday. Do any WOV locals plan on attending?
Quote: rxwineAll of EBs posts are why whichever Democrat he’s talking about are bad, rather than some sort of actual balanced assessment you could actually wager on.
So you think a 'balanced assessment'
is arrived at without discussing
faults? Really?
