and the crowd is silenced....
Quote: AxelWolfObviously there's a misunderstanding somewhere because I assumed we were talking about if someone could control the dice. If you pose the question like you did then it's obvious under normal random conditions then the math dictates the edge and it is what it is.
I dont think the subject has been about "controlling the dice" for more than ten pages.
The last time I looked we were talking about what is the "house edge" at craps and would the house edge be altered by someone who rolled more or less numbers than normal.
As BBB correctly pointed out, the house edge is fixed and whether or not a player can roll more or less of a certain number has no impact on the "house edge."
the house edge is fixed, and as BBB correctly pointed out, someone who is able to roll more or less of certain numbers just has a personal advantage or disadvantage when playing.
In other words, the term "house edge" is fixed by the combinations of two six sided dice. You have seen the pyramid of results of rolling two dice -- well that's the house edge. It doesnt change.
You might do better or worse -- but the house edge does not change.
If its random rolling and someone is getting lucky or unlucky then I agree with you, the edge doesn't change for anyone.Quote: AlanMendelsonI dont think the subject has been about "controlling the dice" for more than ten pages.
The last time I looked we were talking about what is the "house edge" at craps and would the house edge be altered by someone who rolled more or less numbers than normal.
As BBB correctly pointed out, the house edge is fixed and whether or not a player can roll more or less of a certain number has no impact on the "house edge."
the house edge is fixed, and as BBB correctly pointed out, someone who is able to roll more or less of certain numbers just has a personal advantage or disadvantage when playing.
In other words, the term "house edge" is fixed by the combinations of two six sided dice. You have seen the pyramid of results of rolling two dice -- well that's the house edge. It doesnt change.
You might do better or worse -- but the house edge does not change.
If someone can control the dice their edge changes, their odds of winning or losing changes as does the casinos.
When I think of the house edge, I like to use the simplest terms to myself since I'm a bit new to the hardcore math side of this. If I am wrong in any way please let me know.
Think of the house edge like an equation, which I guess it pretty much is. You have your bet "A" and the probable outcome based on randomness "B". If you add those together you get the house edge "C". Now sometimes there's variables depending on which game you play and what options you have, but let's ignore that now. Let's just say it's a Come Out Roll.
So A+B=C
Or. Your Bet "A"+ The Probable Outcome based on Randomness "B"= House Edge "C". Simplified even further 1+2=3
Now since we're assuming DI actually works in this scenario, B is now a completely different number. It can no longer be 1+2=3 because randomness has been eliminated. Now you have A+D= a new sum for the house Edge.
I hope this is correct and I hope it helps.
If anyone thinks I'm a bit off and can expound on this, please feel free to do so.
Quote: BoulderDamItAlan,
When I think of the house edge, I like to use the simplest terms to myself since I'm a bit new to the hardcore math side of this. If I am wrong in any way please let me know.
Think of the house edge like an equation, which I guess it pretty much is. You have your bet "A" and the probable outcome based on randomness "B". If you add those together you get the house edge "C". Now sometimes there's variables depending on which game you play and what options you have, but let's ignore that now. Let's just say it's a Come Out Roll.
So A+B=C
Or. Your Bet "A"+ The Probable Outcome based on Randomness "B"= House Edge "C". Simplified even further 1+2=3
Now since we're assuming DI actually works in this scenario, B is now a completely different number. It can no longer be 1+2=3 because randomness has been eliminated. Now you have A+D= a new sum for the house Edge.
I hope this is correct and I hope it helps.
If anyone thinks I'm a bit off and can expound on this, please feel free to do so.
Yeah, I think you're heading down the incorrect path. The House Edge is really just for the casino to calculate their total exposure and assumes a pure randomness of the mechanism. In the end, all the money the casino spends on surveillance and electronic protection is to protect the randomness of the HE and their predictive percentage of a win. They set their budgets on expected win/loss per game, populate their offerings with a mix that meets their needs, and take the long view. If they catch you manipulating "B", from card counting to daubing to hole-carding to DI to whatever, you're gone, whether you're operating legally or illegally with regard to jurisdictional law.
They're willing to live with the variance that makes some players winners (in part because it's good advertising), but they have to have the overall HE as a constant to make money and offer the games, pay the bills and the labor, continue as a business. Their risk tolerance is almost zero (the idea that they're even in the risk business is largely untrue but it's a useful fiction to bring in optimistic players), which is why they examine individual stats, watching for patterns of unusual losses or ultra-high variance. And removing or changing game procedures, payoffs, whatever, when the game doesn't provide an overall acceptable return.
So, the HE is a set value for the casino. You can gain an advantage over it, but that doesn't change it FOR THE CASINO (long term over many players - a billion or more deals). It changes it FOR YOU (individual short-term within the casino's definition of long term), at the casino's expense, for the time you're able to get away with it.
Quote: AxelWolf
If someone can control the dice their edge changes, their odds of winning or losing changes as does the casinos.
This is your error: you are using the word "edge". The edge is not anything linked to player results. The edge is a strict mathematical calculation of the odds of a distribution of numbers -- in this case the dice.
There are 6 ways to make a 7, five ways to make a 6, and so forth. That is the edge.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI dont think the subject has been about "controlling the dice" for more than ten pages.
That is EXACTLY what was being discussed -- if someone who can control/influence the dice can change the house edge. I mention this in just about every post I've written in this thread regarding that topic.
It is impossible to play craps and lose exactly what you expect to for any given roll. With $100 pass line, do you lose $1.41 every time the bet is resolved? I really hope this isn't the point you were arguing....LOL.
Quote: RSThat is EXACTLY what was being discussed -- if someone who can control/influence the dice can change the house edge.
Sorry, yiou still haven't a clue. The house edge NEVER changes. Can you read?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhich is why I have been asking the Wizard himself to comment. If there is anyone who knows the definition of house edge it would be the Wizard. As I mentioned, what he has written before about the edge of various bets in craps does not include any mention, footnotes or variables based on whether or not a shooter rolls more or less of any number.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4/
He gives the edge/player advantage for various bets and rolls-to-seven ratios for specific dice sets.
Notice how as the skill/RSR goes up, the "edge" changes from negative to positive, indicating player "advantage"
Quote: AlanMendelsonSorry, yiou still haven't a clue. The house edge NEVER changes. Can you read?
Just because you or BBB say something does not make it so.
Quote: AlanMendelsonThe edge is a strict mathematical calculation of the odds of a distribution of numbers
And by changing the distribution of numbers (through dice control/influence) the house edge changes.
Quote: beachbumbabs
So, the HE is a set value for the casino. You can gain an advantage over it, but that doesn't change it FOR THE CASINO (long term over many players - a billion or more deals). It changes it FOR YOU (individual short-term within the casino's definition of long term), at the casino's expense, for the time you're able to get away with it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonSorry, yiou still haven't a clue. The house edge NEVER changes. Can you read?
Can you math? Can you read?
BBB says the long-term expectation of the game dwarfs any advantage a short-term single player may have. But at that particular moment, the casino would in fact have a negative edge (on specific bets, and a larger than normal edge on others.)
Quote: AlanMendelsonLook and try to let this soak in:
And what she wrote is not true. As long as the numbers are being distributed in a non-random fashion, the HE is no longer what it would be with random tosses (1.41% PL). If a DI is rolling the dice, whatever distribution of numbers he is likely to roll (ie: 5.5/36 7's, 5.2/36 6's, 5.1/36 8's, 0.8/36 12's, etc.), then you have to recalculate the HE for each bet. As long as the DI is in possession of the dice, this new HE will be in effect for all players at the table.
The edge is the same in the short term as it is in the long term.
Of course, there's going to be variance. You can't always lose 1.41% of your action.
Do you know how to calculate the House Edge using random tosses? It is fairly simple. Now try calculating the HE using non-random tosses (5.5/36 7's, 5.2/36 6's, 5.1/36 8's, or whatever numbers you wanna plug in). See if that HE number changes.
Let me repeat: Just because BBB said something does not mean it's true.
Quote: AlanMendelsonthe problem is you are not describing the house edge. house edge has a particular definition and you are not properly discussing what the house edge is. you fail.
1) What is it that you think I'm describing?
2) What is the particular definition to the house edge you're referring to?
House Edge - "The ratio of the expected player loss to the initial amount bet."
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/glossary/#house_edge
Expected Loss (Value) - "Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet."
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/glossary/#expected_value
"the expected value of a discrete random variable is the probability-weighted average of all possible values"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
The premise of DI is to change the probability, which changes the expected value/loss, which changes the house edge.
Someone needs to first come up with exact definitions of things like HA, HE, EV. HA and HE are oftentimes described as the same thing.Quote: AlanMendelsonthe problem is you are not describing the house edge. house edge has a particular definition and you are not properly discussing what the house edge is. you fail.
Quote: AxelWolfSomeone needs to first come up with exact definitions of things like HA, HE, EV. HA and HE are oftentimes described as the same thing.
Probably one of the smartest things written. These definitions already exist. They should be used properly.
Quote: wudgedJesus, this is worse than arguing with a system bettor.
House Edge - "The ratio of the expected player loss to the initial amount bet."
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/glossary/#house_edge
Expected Loss (Value) - "Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet."
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/glossary/#expected_value
"the expected value of a discrete random variable is the probability-weighted average of all possible values"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
The premise of DI is to change the probability, which changes the expected value/loss, which changes the house edge.
NO. The definition has been set. You can't change it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNO. The definition has been set. You can't change it.
Nobody's changing any definition. The actual numbers used in the calculation are what is changing, not the definition or the formulas.
Experts uses both at times, I have seen where they have said HA is also known as HE.Quote: AlanMendelsonProbably one of the smartest things written. These definitions already exist. They should be used properly.
Quote: RSJust because you or BBB say something does not make it so.
And by changing the distribution of numbers (through dice control/influence) the house edge changes.
Please note that I am NOT claiming to be an expert on this, and that was the first thing I said coming in. I just read what folks have been writing, and still think people are talking past each other about definitions. Calculation of a House Edge depends on a random mechanism. Whether you're using shaved dice, weighted dice, DI, or the magic lighter flick from Ocean's 13, the House Edge doesn't change, but your expectation does.
I disagree with your second statement; the house edge remains for everyone else as it was unless they're "in on it" with you. For all they know, your throws are just variance. If you're throwing 7's, the right siders are getting killed. If you're not, the dark siders are getting killed. Hopefully for you, that's all the casino knows as well. The other players might well see you winning (unless they're your buddies and know to bet with you from the start) and ride along for a bit; but how long are you going to be left to throw without being 86'd if it's so obvious to the others at the table? (All assuming you can actually DI.) Part of the cost of doing business is watching for guys who seem to be doing something that's making them win above expectation and getting rid of them. But that session with you was just one frame in a 10 hour movie for the casino, and didn't change their expectation.
Quote: wudgedNobody's changing any definition. The actual numbers used in the calculation are what is changing, not the definition or the formulas.
If you follow the definition, the actual numbers don't change. Given two fair dice, there are 6 ways to make a 7, five ways to make a 6, and so forth. those numbers do not change in calculating the house edge.
Really, is it that tough to understand?
Quote: beachbumbabsCalculation of a House Edge depends on a random mechanism.
That's just flat out incorrect. The house edge is a calculation based on the probability of an event occurring, the amount paid out on a win, and the amount wagered.
The "default" house edge is calculated with probabilities assuming the dice are fair and all faces come up equally. A DI is attempting to change how frequently certain combinations come up, ie change the probabilities.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIf you follow the definition, the actual numbers don't change. Given two fair dice, there are 6 ways to make a 7, five ways to make a 6, and so forth. those numbers do not change in calculating the house edge.
Really, is it that tough to understand?
That's the point you're missing. The dice are no longer "fair" if somebody is influencing them to come up with different numbers. They are fair in the sense they are sill weighted the same and all sides are the same size, and that a "random" shooter will get the 1/36 chance for each combination. But, if a DI is actually influencing them, the probabilities are no longer equal/fair for all combinations.
Quote: wudgedThat's just flat out incorrect. The house edge is a calculation based on the probability of an event occurring, the amount paid out on a win, and the amount wagered.
The "default" house edge is calculated with probabilities assuming the dice are fair and all faces come up equally. A DI is attempting to change how frequently certain combinations come up, ie change the probabilities.
Well, we're just going to disagree, wudged. The probability is determined by how many times a particular result could occur in 1 full cycle, yes. The amount paid on a win, yes. The amount wagered, no; HE is calculated using 1 unit, then multiplying by the odds paid. The amount bet is a multiple of that, but doesn't affect the HE calculation.
What you call the "default" house edge is, by definition, the House Edge; no qualifier needed. If you mess with the randomness, you're not creating a new House Edge, you're changing YOUR probabilities by manipulating the randomness of the event.
Quote: beachbumbabsWell, we're just going to disagree, wudged.
You and the Wizard also then, I suppose.
Quote: beachbumbabsThe amount wagered, no; HE is calculated using 1 unit, then multiplying by the odds paid. The amount bet is a multiple of that, but doesn't affect the HE calculation.
What? Do you know how ridiculous this sounds? 1 unit is an amount wagered. The actual amount bet being a multiple of that changes no math, as the amount won would then be a multiple as well.
What you are saying is that 1/2 <> 2/4.
Quote: wudgedYou and the Wizard also then, I suppose.
What? Do you know how ridiculous this sounds? 1 unit is an amount wagered. The actual amount bet being a multiple of that changes no math, as the amount won would then be a multiple as well.
What you are saying is that 1/2 <> 2/4.
I'm saying that the amount wagered isn't part of the HE calculation when the game is built and the math is done.
If you have a reliable manipulation that gives you a PA, then, yeah, you're betting all the traffic will bear. But it doesn't affect the HE, it just affects how much YOU win in absolute dollars.
If you bet 5 dollars on the PL and win, you win 5 dollars. If you bet 500, you win 500. The HE for both bets is the same.
Quote: beachbumbabsWhether you're using shaved dice, weighted dice, DI, or the magic lighter flick from Ocean's 13, the House Edge doesn't change, but your expectation does.
The House Edge is a percentage reflection of expectation, that's the definition of House Edge. The expectation can't change without the House Edge changing, because the House Edge is a derivative of the expectation and the expectation is based on the payouts for x possible results.
From a purely theoretical standpoint, if someone could influence the dice to effectuate a probability of rolling a six to be 5.5/36 and the probability of rolling a seven to also be 5.5/36, then the player makes a $60 Place Bet to win $70:
(5/11 * 70) - (6/11 * 60) = 5
That means the player is expected to profit $5.00 on his $60 bet, which makes the PLAYER Edge 5/60 = 8.333333% rather than the typical HOUSE Edge of 1.52%, which is reflected as -0.0152 and an expected loss of about $0.912 for the player on a $60 bet.
This means that you can't separate expectation and House Edge from each other because they are interrelated, and in fact, one number dictates the other.
If we move on from that towards this idea of a game of Craps where the House Edge is based on a 1/6 probability of rolling a seven and a 5/36 probability of rolling a six, and we accept that the probabilities of 5.5/36 and 5.5/36 are fixed for our dice setter, then he's playing a different game than the standard game of Craps. The standard game of Craps (and House Edge associated therewith) relies on the probabilities of random dice, so if the dice COULD be meaningfully and consistently influenced...they'd still be random results...but the long-term results would pan out more for the 5.5/36 to roll a six and 5.5/36 to roll a seven in my example.
Quote:I disagree with your second statement; the house edge remains for everyone else as it was unless they're "in on it" with you.
The House Edge depends on what they are betting, not whether they know it or not. If we use the example of my theoretical shooter above and a player makes a Don't Pass bet and the established point is a six and he lays $60 to win $50, then:
(5.5/36 * 50) - (5.5/36 * 60) = -1.52777777778
Which represents a HE of 2.546% against that player on the FREE ODDS, while anyone with a Pass Line bet that takes FREE ODDS on the six has an advantage.
Let's look at Blackjack as an example, card counters acquire a certain Player Edge via their bet spreads and by using Index plays that improve their expectation, however, expectation is improved (somewhat) simply by betting more when the count is good and betting less when the count is bad. We're all familiar with the concept of, "Wonging-In," which means entering the game only when there is a good count. Let's say a Basic Strategy player inadvertently Wongs-In when the True Count is +5...he may not have been back-counting...but he's playing at an advantage.
Furthermore, many people who play the game of Craps, with random dice, are not, "In on," the House Edge in the sense that they don't know what the House Edges are or probabilities/expectations associated therewith. That doesn't mean they don't apply to them.
The advantages/disadvantages are and will always be predicated upon how much is being bet and the probability of the event occurring v. the event not occurring, whether someone knows what the probabilities are or not.
Or did I just get confused by your post?
Quote: AlanMendelsonMission, I take this to mean you disagree with beachbumbabs? If so should there be an asterisk in "the books" that the house edge in craps is theoretically variable dependent on variance at the tables?
Or did I just get confused by your post?
The edge has nothing to do with variance. Variance is just how far from expectation you are. Expectation is based on probability of an event happening.
If a random shooter throws the dice 36 times and six 6s are rolled, that is variance from the expected 5.
If a DI who can throw an extra 6 in place of an 8 for every 36 shots (meaning 6 becomes 6/36 and 8 becomes 4/36), throws the dice and there are six 6s there as well, that is no variance from the expected 6.
Quote: AlanMendelsonMission, I take this to mean you disagree with beachbumbabs? If so should there be an asterisk in "the books" that the house edge in craps is theoretically variable dependent on variance at the tables?
Or did I just get confused by your post?
I'm going to say you got confused, I'm not talking about theoretically variable dependent on variance at the tables. Actual outcomes based on a random set of dice have no effect whatsoever on the House Edge and Variance is such that a person can lose in excess of the house edge, or win, in general, at any given time.
My theoretical point concerns a theoretical dice setter who can meaningfully and consistently throw 5.5/36 6's v. 5.5/36 7's, over the long-term which is when any house edge will see itself eventually manifest. That doesn't mean he always wins, just like card-counters don't always win when they play a session of Blackjack, even though they bet higher when they have the edge.
This conversation is also largely meaningless because I don't know that it has been proven, to any great level of satisfaction, that the dice can be meaningfully and consistently influenced to enough of an extent to yield a player edge. Even if it had, you'd also need some specifics on what numbers the person is more likely (than expected from random) to hit and to exactly what extent he's more likely to hit them.
It differs from Blackjack (even if dice influencing is effectual) in that Blackjack has a certain deck composition at any given time, and most players don't know, to the card, exactly what that composition is, but there is one. The House Edge (or Player Edge) in the case of a Blackjack game that had been dealt down is based on that composition combined with the Rules of the game, so with every given deal, the House Edge (or Player Edge) is going to change a little bit.
If you want to see an example of this in action, you should try the Wizard's Baccarat game:
https://wizardofodds.com/play/baccarat/new/
Prior to dealing anything, it shows the House Edge on the Banker Bet at 1.0579%, Player at 1.2351% and Tie at 14.3596%.
After playing a hand, PLAYER ended up with 10d, Ac for 1 and Banker ended up with Js, 9c for 9 and Banker won with 9-1. Now, when I look at stats:
The House Edge for Banker is 1.0521%, the House Edge for Player is 1.2405% and the House Edge for Tie is 14.2013%.
As you can see, the House Edge changed because, based on the deck composition, Banker just became infinitesimally more likely to win, Player became infinitesimally more likely to lose, and Tie became infinitesimally more likely to win.
I finished playing out the shoe, even though I'm not going to type all the results. For the better part of the shoe, Player was a better bet than Banker, even though they were still both -EV. Towards the end of the shoe, the HE on a Banker bet was less than 1%, though.
Anyway, the composition changes the House Edge of any given coup, at least, it can. It doesn't matter if a player can track that or not, it's there.
Thus, you might look at the ability to influence dice meaningfully and consistently (if it exists) similarly to being able to insert a deck of cards composed such that it is slightly in the Player's favor at the start of the game. The deck is in the player's favor, but the order in which the cards come out is still random. The Banker/Player probabilities change throughout the shoe because of deck composition, and the change in probabilities changes the House Edge. Thus, IF the dice influencer can change the probabilities, then he too changes the house edge.
In short, my post had nothing to do with short-term Variance.
You're thinking about variance.
Quote: Mission146If you want to see an example of this in action, you should try the Wizard's Baccarat game:
Mission, thank you for taking the time to post all this. It's good to see somebody in green who knows the answers.
While you clearly lay it all out, the blackjack analogy has been brought up before and somehow that is "different" because it's a series of dependent events, while craps is a series of independent events.
What is failing to be seen is that it doesn't matter whether events are dependent or not, changing the probability changes the edge.
Quote: wudgedMission, thank you for taking the time to post all this. It's good to see somebody in green who knows the answers.
While you clearly lay it all out, the blackjack analogy has been brought up before and somehow that is "different" because it's a series of dependent events, while craps is a series of independent events.
What is failing to be seen is that it doesn't matter whether events are dependent or not, changing the probability changes the edge.
You're welcome, and while I tend to disagree with BBB's explanation, I understand where she's coming from. I think the premise that causes her overall line of reasoning to differ from mine is her position that a player essentially cannot play with an edge unless he/she knows he/she is playing with an edge.
Changing the probability changes the edge, but if we assume the possible existence of my theoretical DI, then Craps is also a series of dependent events. Simply put, the House Edge varies based on how well the DI influences the dice and I guess table conditions, shooting position, whether or not he's shooting well, in general, that day...and what have you. So, even if we find a DI with an overall advantage, he might be better one day than he is the next day, but overall, everything is going to average out consistently with his skill level.
It's like that Blackjack Deck Composition of a TC +5, you could have five total hands being played (including the dealer's) and the hands end up being, 19, 20, Natural, 20, Natural, all in two cards...now the deck composition isn't as good. Alternatively, more low cards could come out that make the deck composition better. Thus, the player advantage is either increased, reduced or eliminated based on what comes out and the DI's advantage can do the same based on conditions as well as other factors. That's why I spoke of a 5.5/36 on 6's and 5.5/36 on 7's over the long-term.
Quote: RSThe # of ways to roll a combination is not what is used to calculate the house edge. The probabilities of each number is used.
Depending on the bet, those can be the same thing. If you hop 5-4, then there are two ways to roll that and 34 ways not to, so the HE is based on:
(2/36 * PAYS) - (34/36 * UNIT) = Expected Loss
Expected Loss/Amount Bet = House Edge
The Wizard states that the House Edge on the passline bet is 1.41%. Are you suggesting that if someone were able to influence the dice the House Edge on the passline would no longer be 1.41-percent?? Are you saying that the House Edge on the passline bet is not "in stone" at 1.41-percent should there be someone who can influence the dice?
Quote: Mission146Depending on the bet, those can be the same thing. If you hop 5-4, then there are two ways to roll that and 34 ways not to, so the HE is based on:
(2/36 * PAYS) - (34/36 * UNIT) = Expected Loss
Expected Loss/Amount Bet = House Edge
For randomness, essentially the same thing.
It's the probability though. If a 5-4 has a 2.1/36 probability of being rolled, you use 2.1/36 in the equation, not 2/36.
Quote: AlanMendelsonMission let me ask you this:
The Wizard states that the House Edge on the passline bet is 1.41%. Are you suggesting that if someone were able to influence the dice the House Edge on the passline would no longer be 1.41-percent?? Are you saying that the House Edge on the passline bet is not "in stone" at 1.41-percent should there be someone who can influence the dice?
First of all, as has already been pointed out, Wizard already made an entire page based upon the House Edge for a player who can theoretically control the dice...though his is based on RSR and my theoretical just pitted 6's against 7's. Not to appeal to authority too much, but Wizard clearly agrees with my theoretical position, or he wouldn't waste his time making a page on that...it certainly wasn't because he believes in the efficacy of DI.
I am, in fact, saying that if there were such a theoretical shooter who could meaningfully, consistently, predictably and intentionally alter the probabilities of two standard dice from what we expect from, "Random dice," in the LONG-TERM, then yes, the Pass Line bet would have a different edge than the accepted 1.41% House Edge and a myriad of other bets on the table would likely be altered, as well.
But I have not been lucky at craps. In fact, I've never had a winning year playing craps -- never in my life. And so, I wonder if the opposite is true:
If a dice influencer can change the house edge in his favor, forcing the house to alter pays, shouldn't the house change the house edge for the rest of us schlubbs who lose and change the pays to keep the game fair?
After all, if a DI can theoretically change the House Edge and the pays, shouldn't the House Edge and the pays also be changed for the rest of us schlamiels?
I can imagine a computer at each table keeping track of each roll and computing a "rolling house edge" for the tables. After all, what's fair is fair -- and if the House Edge is not fixed, let's make sure it varies with the success or failure of shooters.
Quote: AlanMendelsonthanks Mission. And I guess this means that all of the books must be rewritten, or an asterisk must be placed next to the "house edge" for various bets indicating that it is based only on a random shooter?
But I have not been lucky at craps. In fact, I've never had a winning year playing craps -- never in my life. And so, I wonder if the opposite is true:
If a dice influencer can change the house edge in his favor, forcing the house to alter pays, shouldn't the house change the house edge for the rest of us schlubbs who lose and change the pays to keep the game fair?
After all, if a DI can theoretically change the House Edge and the pays, shouldn't the House Edge and the pays also be changed for the rest of us schlamiels?
I can imagine a computer at each table keeping track of each roll and computing a "rolling house edge" for the tables. After all, what's fair is fair -- and if the House Edge is not fixed, let's make sure it varies with the success or failure of shooters.
Yet dice influence/control can't be done. You're starting to sound like a troll with your straw man argument.
Quote: RSYet dice influence/control can't be done. You're starting to sound like a troll with your straw man argument.
You're missing my point:
House Edge is a factor for making the pays in the game of craps. So...
If the house edge theoretically can be changed with DI to hit certain numbers, and therefore the pays, shouldn't the house edge and the pays be changed for when tables run especially cold?
Just trying to keep the game "fair."
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou're missing my point:
House Edge is a factor for making the pays in the game of craps. So...
If the house edge theoretically can be changed with DI to hit certain numbers, and therefore the pays, shouldn't the house edge and the pays be changed for when tables run especially cold?
Just trying to keep the game "fair."
No. That is variance....and poor logic.
It seems you either do not understand variance/expectation or you are trolling. Re-read what you've written. Seriously.
My point is, if you are going to argue that the House Edge is variable then it has to be variable for "both sides."
The supposed DI, or loaded dice, etc, affects the frequency of occurance of each number on the die.
Distribution of numbers different = different house edge
In these cases, the house edge IS variable for both sides - right side, dark side, player, and house.
If you have changed the even distribution of the numbers rolled, you have changed every house edge in the game, but not necessarily in the same direction.
