Quote:I assume the above picture, etc, is from his own site.
No, Alan first posted it sometime ago, either here or on another board.
I didn't bookmark it, but it is easy enough to google up.
FWIW, I did not post it to embarrass Alan: far from it.
I think it's probably one of the coolest things any member of this forum has done to date.
Quote: MrVI think it's probably one of the coolest things any member of this forum has done to date.
I think that you guys are confusing honesty and endearment with the truth, whatever that is.
Add on: Should he be embarrassed, V? You seem to be skirting around it.
Question for the audience: What is the ratio of money made selling books, classes, private lessons, etc. on how to influence dice to money made actually doing it?
Infinity doesn't exist so how could it have meaning?Quote: DocSo is this going to be another one of those discussions about the meaning of infinity?
Quote: WizardMy opinion is that the topic runs out of steam every time Ahigh resigns from the forum.
Question for the audience: What is the ratio of money made selling books, classes, private lessons, etc. on how to influence dice to money made actually doing it?
Good question, that is very simple to answered. These on axis DI school make their money by selling their schools, they even go so low as charging for their students to go to the tables with them, so they get their buy-in from their students, no reason to risk the money they just made off their students.
They no longer call it a hook-up fee. They changed the name to an “After Glow” fee, no I'm not making this up. When I heard it I was laughing so hard I was crying!
Quote:
Looking for an “after-glow” live session with Heavy and Howard? We’ll play
one last live casino session Sunday afternoon at 5:00 PM. This sessions is
slated to last for approximately one hour. Cost of the session is $119 per
person. These sessions are ONLY available to students who sign on for one
of the Dealer School sessions. Again, we’re limiting the number of players
to 8 for this session. Once we have 8 players signed on we’ll be full up.
Money is to be made selling anything that these schools can can think up!
When you read the trip reports that the players give after they took a class, they all lost money. Their heroes even go out of their way to make sure that their students don't expect to win money when they pay them to participate in their “After Glow” session. But the only problem is that their students would have to look in a different thread to find that information.
It all boils down to one thing and that is the slow motions videos that we now have as the dice bounce, twist and roll all over the place when the dice hit the tables. No on axis craps school has ever produced a video in slow motion that shows their dice staying on axis!
If they were making all of the money they claim to make, they wouldn't waste their time teaching others to do the same thing.
So 99% of their money is made off of anything they can sell and maybe just maybe 1 % is made on the craps tables! Nobody can gain a advantage from their shooting on a craps table, the best looking shot I ever made was a seven-out! You can't change the house advantage when you are playing craps. It will always be a very constant edge, you may get lucky because of variance but if you continue to play you will give it back, if your shooting is the only thing you have in your bag of tricks.
If you don't know how to bet the game or when to leave, you give back what you won. The variance of the game never stays constant. You simply enter the game when it is on one side or the other.
These craps schools know that and that is why they need to charge a “After Glow” they know without it they would give back to the casinos what they just made on their class. For arguments sake some of you will say, look I once saw one of these instructors get on a fifty roll, and while that may be true, I would remind you that there are fifty rolls,..rolled by the so-called random rollers all the time, the only difference is they do not have craps board that they can write about it!
If you want to make money when one of these craps schools are in Vegas, just go to the same table and bet the don't. Once one of them has a PSO or a very short roll, they fall like bowling pins when someone makes a strike. Yes you can get lucky and win at craps but it's not like what you will read in some of these master pieces of fiction you read in some of the DI craps books and their craps boards.
I was at Bellagio when Dice Coach was playing, and he colored up ahead.
Quote: MrVThese guys don't always lose.
I was at Bellagio when Dice Coach was playing, and he colored up ahead.
I was there when a random roller had a 50 some roll, so what. I see random rollers winning everyday. Most craps players will get lucky at some time when they are throwing the dice! Did you ever think that he was getting lucky?
Quote: MrVNo, Alan first posted it sometime ago, either here or on another board.
I didn't bookmark it, but it is easy enough to google up.
FWIW, I did not post it to embarrass Alan: far from it.
I think it's probably one of the coolest things any member of this forum has done to date.
The photo came from Caesars Palace. There is also a video that Caesars shot. It was first published by Robin Leach in his column and website. Years later I put it on my own website after I left KCAL.
Norm in the Las Vegas Review Journal wrote about it as well.
To the best of my knowledge it is the only time a wedding took place at a craps table. And Caesars found the Rabbi.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat exactly?
A "soft bounce" isn't necessarily the roll of least energy, ie, of potential for least variance in a system (on its own w/o external variables). Ask, which requires more effort and agility, skipping a stone across a pond, or zinging it at the optimal angle? Just because some people can skip the stone a dozen times doesn't any more augur it's orientation, etc, when it comes to rest on the bottom.
Consistency is as meaningless. Like people can agree, love each other, and be honest and polite, to the nth degree, the truth is separate from any set of facts or the mundane.
Even the most optimized throws under laboratory conditions must encounter the threshold of randomness. Like shuffling a deck of cards. However you shuffle, at some point the deck becomes random. As paradoxically, at some point the cards begin to make sense again as dealt. Does it matter how much more shuffling after every possible means of mechanical card tracking has been exhausted, and the deck has been fairly randomized? Of course not. (Not a least, within the scope of the arguments in this forum.) At some point the games' dealers declare no more bets, etc, to well ensure the minimum of distraction.
You can't make your chances any worse either. Liken this to the old debate over which roulette ball is the most predictable. Eg, the heavy one, or the light one? The heavy one bounces less, but has a lot more momentum, ie, it takes longer to run its more-predictable course. Postulate new theorems in physics if you want. Because, after the threshold, you could shoot the dice from a gun, and into the back board, but it's not going to do what you want it to. The physics won't allow any thing to help you help you then.
People are afraid to admit that we don't reside in the realm of the absolute. But, such would be a "be careful what you wish for" world were we unable to let go of all the stuff so then forever strictly forced in front of us. Eg, there could be no sense of self as figuratively separately seeing oneself. One law follows another, regardless of the type of law. Even the universe would be a scramble were it to merely "just exist".
The mathematician Laplace of his era concluded that if a coin falls heads, then the chance of another head is GREATER THAN or equal to half the time. But, we now realize that one throw isn't statistically significant in any way. The various forms of variance are to be expected, even if the coin were heavily weighted heads. In fact, it takes millions of trials to so conclusively decide which of two very similar games is the better game. No in-between. It's gambler's fallacy, or quantifiably reproducible proof.
So... I would sum it up this way: give me a shooter who tries to influence the dice and if he has a good roll he will be my hero. And, there is no harm in trying to influence the dice so why not try?
And that is THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION: WHY NOT TRY?
If you don't try you don't stand a chance of beating a negative expectation game. If you don't try YOU SHOULD NOT PLAY.
Quote: AlanMendelsonIf you don't try YOU SHOULD NOT PLAY.
I'm ok with your post but don't agree with this last assertion, for a number of reasons; after reflection you could probably name those reasons yourself
but in particular: I just returned from The Greenbrier, playing at negative expectation totally ... the decision to gamble at this resort is a complicated consideration having much to do with a compromise with the spouse, something I am guessing you know a little about yourself.
in fact the stay couldn't illustrate better that the entertainment I seek from gambling is a much smaller chunk of our vacation dollar than the travel, hotel costs, dining, etc, represent. If we went by the EV of my gambling, it's laughable up against the other expenses. If you want to go by the EV out there at 3 standard deviations to the bad, it still is a modest fraction ... and unlikely to be lived out, as the trend towards that much bad luck would probably make me cut my losses before I played it out.
So, no, I don't accept that knowing I am expected to lose* on average means I can't indulge in this modest cost of entertainment.
THE GOAL OF CRAPS IS NOT TO LOSE. SO YOU MUST TRY TO INFLUENCE. And if you don't agree don't play.
So only dice setters should attempt to roll dem bones, eh?
Why should anybody try, when it has never been proven to be effective?
Oh yeah, you saw three guys with good throws and good results: how do you know what you saw them do wasn't just luck?
I don't roll dem bones much anymore, I almost always pass the dice; so by your logic I should not play craps?
Most of us gamble for fun, for entertainment; were it only about making some money I'd put in a few more hours in the office.
Life is short: try to enjoy it.
You need not roll the dice to win.
I bet on non dice setters but with restraint. I would rather bet on a shooter who tries to win.
I won't bet against a DP shooter because he wants a seven out. By the same token I bet with a shooter who wants and tries to make passes... whether he has any real, measureable ability or not.
And why should someone try when never shown to be effective? Because it doesn't hurt to try. It's not illegal and it is part of the game.
The absurdity is not trying when the casino gives you the dice.
Quote: AlanMendelsonMr V you are absurd if you go to casinos with the goal of losing money.
having a goal of losing money, definitely foolish, is not the same as knowing your expectation is negative
Quote: odiousgambithaving a goal of losing money, definitely foolish, is not the same as knowing your expectation is negative
Which is why I now rarely play craps (switched to video poker) and for the most part I won't play with shooters who don't TRY to influence the dice.
find that neighbor so my son and Andy trailed the deer onto that land without a gun. The deer was down when they found it and Andy
walked up to clean it . Andy weighs about 150 and it was not long before it appeared Andy was being cleaned... (laughing)
The moral of that story is you need to watch Clint Eastwood movies..... " a man needs to know his limitations"
Dicesitter
Now you know why I talk about deer hunting.
Last night was an example. Against my better judgement I agree to meet 3 other guys that have taken
classes on dice control for dinner at a small Tribal casino. I got there ahead to get a few rolls on my own
before there got to many at the table. I did not bet much and did not have any real long rolls. But one
other guy did have a nice roll. He has not had any classes and says he does not really believe in that
crap, ( but always wants to know when we are playing).
Anyway, he had a nice roll, the funny thing is he does not believe in influencing the dice, yet sets the
dice the same way, picks them up the same way, throws them the same way, lands them the same place and keeps
the bounce down.
I surely understand his point, this crap makes no difference...........he does exactly what he says makes
no difference....but he does not even know he is doing it.
dicesetter
Quote: AlanMendelson(switched to video poker)
you've been full of surprises this thread, Alan!
Quote: dicesitterAnyway, he had a nice roll, the funny thing is he does not believe in influencing the dice, yet sets the
dice the same way, picks them up the same way, throws them the same way, lands them the same place and keeps
the bounce down.
I surely understand his point, this crap makes no difference...........he does exactly what he says makes
no difference....but he does not even know he is doing it.
Have you been stalking me????
I spent Friday afternoon at a not-so-small tribal casino (Harrah's Cherokee). I played three sessions of craps, each an hour long or a little more, which is about all my back can take these days before I need a break. It was a $10-minimum table, which was the level that I played, and I played only 2x or 2.5x odds. I did have a couple of fairly-good shooting hands -- twice getting four to the Fire Bet.
As I have mentioned here a number of times, I set the dice the same way every time (regardless of situation) and try to throw them about the same. I'm just not silly enough to think that the way I handle the dice has much effect on the position in which they come to rest. They are probably spinning/tumbling while in the air, and they definitely go random when they hit the table and end wall, even though they usually don't bounce very far. Setting the dice (for me) is just a fun thing to do. I'm there for the entertainment anyway, so I just have additional fun when I am shooting. I sometimes quip that I might play roulette if they would let me spin the wheel and roll the ball, but they won't.
By the way, all three of those short sessions of craps had positive outcomes, with an overall win of $525 after tokes. A fun and profitable afternoon, with both of those factors being of interest to me.
Quote: odiousgambityou've been full of surprises this thread, Alan!
I cut back on craps more than two years ago. The "math" can't help you win at craps. The math only explains why you lost. The only way to win at craps is to have some influence on the dice.
All of you math guys should run -- don't walk -- from the craps pit.
Quote: AlanMendelsonAnd that is THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION: WHY NOT TRY?
Yeah. Goes hand in hand with stopping to think first. MacGyver style.
I'll add, why not find the most ridiculously hard thing to flirt around with while you're at it. Something at which even guessing the right answer isn't possible.
Which leaves us with two options. Try to intuitively devise, and perfect the simplest of strategies, which I think is what you're going on now; or, as in my world, to further unlock the mysteries of at least the known paradoxes of randomness in practical ways.
Nothing is perfect wrt us, not even randomness. People have already "opened up holes" in it, though not yet big enough to "drive a truck through".
Quote: AlanMendelsonAll of you math guys should run -- don't walk -- from the craps pit.
What you have to look for is someone who isn't interested in the outcomes. That look will tell you everything.
They already know the outcomes as far as it matters to them; not, in the shocked ways others try to take it all in at once on each and every turn of events.
It is Dice Influencer versus a golfer who does a hole in one each day while blindfolded, a hunter who fires a .22 into the woods and gets a grizzly right between the eyes, or a fisherman who tells you about the one that got away being a shark.
I once claimed to be a professional keno player .... and was shocked when some seemed to actually believe me.
Quote: AlanMendelson
THE GOAL OF CRAPS IS NOT TO LOSE. SO YOU MUST TRY TO INFLUENCE. And if you don't agree don't play.
Are you sure?
Let's assume craps is a skill game. I don't play craps, so I'll use a hockey analogy.
In hockey, we have "super shooters". We call them snipers. They can knock a quarter off the crossbar without touching the pipe, just insane skill. These would be your "surgeon" fellow.
Then there's guys like me. I'm a defender, just a dumb meat shield swinging lumber at everything close enough for me to hit. I can shoot, sure. I might even be able to pick a corner, and I'm damn good at judging angles for ditches off the boards.
But I'm not a sniper. Sure, I can dangle in practice. I can spin move between the legs and get a shot off, I can lift the puck and bounce it on my blade before whacking it out of the air towards the goal. I can do a bunch of fancy stuff to make the panties drop. But come game time, I don't got it. Too much going on, too much at risk. If I were to try it in a game, chances are I'd embarrass myself (7 out) and put my team (bankroll) in peril.
Wouldn't this apply to craps? Isn't it the same as a little knowledge (skill) is a dangerous thing? Snipers (DI) should absolutely use their skills to their advantage. But for those of us in the middle of the bell curve, don't we have just as much chance of influencing wrongly as we do pulling off a miracle?
I don't shoot to be a hero. I shoot because the sun shines on a dog's ass occasionally. And aren't us unskilled fellows deserving of a warm backside once in awhile?
Your newfound love for VP is interesting.
Consider: Why do most LV gamblers play VP as their main game?
Is it because it's theoretically beatable, or because it is so terribly addictive?
Reviewing your trip reports on your board, you still spend A LOT of time gambling, mostly at Rincon, which is fine: just don't preach to others about the "correct" way to play craps, or any other game: you lack the necessary qualifications: I believe you'd concede that you never got good at it, so you gave up.
That is the thing no one in the dice setting community will ever talk about..... influence the wrong way.
For me it has always made sense that dice influencing could be a double edged sword.... if you can
get good enough to throw more 6's or 8's than normal percentages dictate, there is no reason to assume
if you are off a tad you cant throw more 7's. In fact I think it is a certainty.
My reasoning is this... lets say your are an on access player, but that I mean you think you can keep dice
on access the entire throw ( we know that cant be done) but just assume you think an on axis finish is
the same. If you use a hard way set lets say 5/3 5/3 and your on a table where you have to throw 7 feet.
If one of your dice make a 1/4 turn back and the other 1/4 turn forward you have a 7, the other way a 7.
If you think that getting a hard 10 is then a perfect roll, the closer you are to perfect on
every roll, the closer to a 7 you are..... on every roll.
I think, and this is just my opinion, that a person that can influence the dice fairly well, can actually
throw more 7's than a random guy... if you are off a tad...
a random guy just throws and he is as close to a 7 on any roll as he is on any other roll.
If I try to throw a toss which I want to keep on access, I can tell you I can throw more 3/4 4/3
than you can believe, so I quit trying....I can be off a tad far more than I can get a perfect roll.
that is just my experience.
dicesetter
I am sure your teammates want you to aim for the goal or pass to another teammate for an assist.
It is similar in craps. If you are the shooter try your best to win. If you can't get a good shot -- pass.
MrV I have never claimed to be a DI but I try. It doesn't hurt to try.
Is there anyone who is not a DI who can claim to be a consistent winner at craps? If there isn't such a consistent winner why would you criticize snyone who tries to be a DI?
That's a silly comparison. It's proven VP & BJ's % is based on correct holds and strategy.Quote: AlanMendelsonIf you don't try to influence dice then you shouldn't bother with correct strategy in blackjack or video poker or any other hame because the goal of craps is to hit the numbers that make you win.
THE GOAL OF CRAPS IS NOT TO LOSE. SO YOU MUST TRY TO INFLUENCE. And if you don't agree don't play.
There's no different in a random roller and a DI. The best way to win in craps is by betting the best percentages.
If you believe you can influence the dice then I guess you should try. Just like if you believe in Singer's garbage you should try that as well. Singer is no more foolish than a DI.
Quote:Is there anyone who is not a DI who can claim to be a consistent winner at craps? If there isn't such a consistent winner why would you criticize snyone who tries to be a DI?
Guys can go on an epic tear in the short to medium run, like Archie Karas did at Binions, but in the long run the math favors the house.
I don't criticize you for your belief in bone arranging, just as I don't criticize a five year old for fervently believing in Santa Claus; after all, it is part of being human to employ superstition to try and quell the perceived boogeymen of this world.
I do however criticize you for saying that people who don't try DI should not play craps.
Who the heck are you to make such a sweeping, judgmental statement?
Quote: AxelWolfThat's a silly comparison. It's proven VP & BJ's % is based on correct holds and strategy.
There's no different in a random roller and a DI. The best way to win in craps is by betting the best percentages.
If you believe you can influence the dice then I guess you should try. Just like if you believe in Singer's garbage you should try that as well. Singer is no more foolish than a DI.
This is the same argument the "anti-DI" crowd always makes: there is no proof.
My point is there doesn't have to be proof and it doesn't hurt to try. You say craps is a random game and if a DI throw isonly random what's the harm?
SET ON!!!
Quote: AlanMendelsonThis is the same argument the "anti-DI" crowd always makes: there is no proof.
My point is there doesn't have to be proof and it doesn't hurt to try. You say craps is a random game and if a DI throw isonly random what's the harm?
SET ON!!!
So Alan you asked a very good question and maybe you can also answer it when you said whats the harm!
From your below quotes you evidently stopped playing craps, the harm is that you would lose money and the way we all can look at it,...is you had to stop and switched to video poker, because you were losing!
Quote: AlanMendelson
And that is THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION: WHY NOT TRY?
If you don't try you don't stand a chance of beating a negative expectation game. If you don't try YOU SHOULD NOT PLAY.
This below quote really got me, so you are now playing video poker, I'm sure Ahigh would love to know that one!
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhich is why I now rarely play craps (switched to video poker) and for the most part I won't play with shooters who don't TRY to influence the dice.
Please let us know how your video poker is going, why don't you take a class off of Bob Dancer I understand that there is a class for everything that has to do with gambling.
http://www.bobdancer.com/ and I'm sure there are plenty of books on video poker that you can buy. I took a different approach so my wife would not play the slot machines, I bought her a video poker machine so she would see that she didn't stand a chance of winning! Guess what it worked wonders and she stays out of the casinos here in Vegas, and she knows how to play the so-called perfect strategy. Her video poker machine proved to her she would still be a loser. Maybe you should take a lesson from her and just buy a video poker machine to see that you can't beat them!
Now see there is a sport, I have 40 people coming over xmas eve and have to feed them....stuffed beef tenderloin, stuffed
port tenderloin, hot turkey , 4 pounds of deep fried schrimp, mac and cheese and raspberry bread pudding with vamilla
sauce.
I made up raffle tickets 3 for $5 for all the guests, you cant win, but that is no different than most games in a casino and
it gets some of my cost back, I given the winner a box of home made cookies ( which I would have given them anyway.
Life is tuff, you need to look out for the bucks. I don't offer any classes yet on before dinner raffle games.... maybe
next year.
dicesetter
merry Christmas to all the seekers of craps secrets
So how, exactly, are we supposed to try to influence the dice when the casino hands them to us?
After all, they're inanimate objects, and like the mentally challenged, the weak, the lame, and the superstitious they are impervious to argument.
I can lecture dem bones til the cows come home: will that do it, Alan?
I can safely say that compared to most people I am a good influence, but that has meant nothing at the craps table; the dice never obey me.
How do YOU influence the disobedient dice?
Oh, that's right: you don't.
So what is more absurd: an atheist who says "I believe that there is no god, because there is no proof of god," or a priest who preaches "blessed are the influencers, for god has set the craps table for them in heaven?"
Quote: MrVHow do YOU influence the disobedient dice?
Don't fixate on them. Focus on what you can change.
On my last trip to Caesars for the Great Gift Wrap Up I cashed out $2100 ahead after throwing four fire bet points ($250) and made a pass on the 8 four times in a row with $125 odds.
For random shooters I bet pass with the fire bet in case lightning strikes.
I play a 99.2% game at video poker and had 11 royals this year.
Quote: KerkebetDon't fixate on them. Focus on what you can change.
"Spoon boy: Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Spoon boy: There is no spoon.
Neo: There is no spoon?
Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself."
But Im glad this topic is still debatable...
Quote: AlanMendelsonI play a 99.2% game at video poker and had 11 royals this year.
But Alan, have you tried to influence the cards at VP, via mind/card control, card setting, or zombie shuffling?
No?
Tsk tsk.
"If you don't try you don't stand a chance of beating a negative expectation game. If you don't try YOU SHOULD NOT PLAY."
Quote: MrVBut Alan, have you tried to influence the cards at VP, via mind/card control, card setting, or zombie shuffling?
No?
Tsk tsk.
"If you don't try you don't stand a chance of beating a negative expectation game. If you don't try YOU SHOULD NOT PLAY."
Here is what you are overlooking:
I use proper strategy in video poker. What is the proper strategy that you use at craps? If you aren't influencing the dice what gives you an edge? There is no betting scheme that will give you an edge. Even full odds has no player advantage.
I totally agree.Quote: AlanMendelsonThis is the same argument the "anti-DI" crowd always makes: there is no proof.
My point is there doesn't have to be proof and it doesn't hurt to try. You say craps is a random game and if a DI throw isonly random what's the harm?
SET ON!!!
I have nothing against people who try, God loves a triers. I have issues with the reality of DI(I had a friend get sucked in and go broke). But, if reasonable people want to believe that's fine.
Ill even set, and mimic a DI toss occasionally just for fun.
However not trying to influence the dice doesn't mean you're not playing win.
Quote: AlanMendelsonTell me: how do you try to win if you are not trying to influence the dice? Prayer? Voodoo? Having a pretty girl kiss the dice?
Tell me: how do you try to win if you ARE trying to influence the dice? Prayer? Voodoo? Having a pretty girl kiss the dice?
Quote: AlanMendelsonHere is what you are overlooking:
I use proper strategy in video poker.
So what?
I play proper strategy at craps, and reduce the house edge to 1.5%; you play VP using proper strategy yet the house edge is still against you.
Where do we differ?
Quote: MrVSo what?
I play proper strategy at craps, and reduce the house edge to 1.5%; you play VP using proper strategy yet the house edge is still against you.
Where do we differ?
the equivalent of what you are talking about is playing the max of five coins at video poker, i.e., 5X$1 rather than playing one coin at $5 for the same $5 played.
Making the best bet does not mean you will win.
the only way to win at craps is to change the random result of dice.
I never said I won at video poker but I do play by the correct strategy in video poker.
AGAIN I am asking you what is your strategy for winning at craps? Making bets with the lowest house edge is not a strategy to alter the results of the game (dice).
The same way I concede that holding the optimum cards at video poker does not mean the RNG will cooperate and complete my hand with a winning combination.
Quote: AlanMendelsonnever said I won at video poker
Could have fooled me, when you said "I had 11 royals this year."
Some folks never get 1 royal, and you get 11, in one year.
I guess when the amount you've lost exceeds the amount you won (including those "11 royals this year") then yes, you haven't won at VP.
As for my strategy at craps, I usually place six and eight, sometimes switch to a couple come bets, and if a good roll develops go to nonstop come bets (pretty rare, unfortunately).
I certainly don't play to lose, but I recognize that I more likely than not will lose, and that's okay.