Influencing the Outcome of the Roll

Quote: waltomeal

Mobbing has made the forum uninhabitable. Smell ya later.

Hey, Instead lets smell Wong himself, well his words.

His "Wong on Dice" book is for sale.
IMO,
It will make the world a better place.

Wong on Dice
"Wong on Dice is about throwing dice in a manner that achieves outcomes that differ from random.
If the dice are tossed in a manner acceptable to the casino, the differences from random will be small."

How small? Buy his book!

Is not the Craps game the casinos' and not the players'? Casinos set the house rules.
"acceptable to the casino".
Wong has more to say after this in his text. It looks to be free to read.

it seems to me if someone claims they can influence results throwing two dice, it should be easy to influence the results throwing one.
and yet there has never been an independently verified test that proves this ability. neither for two dice nor one die.
why not? if you have the ability wouldn't you want to be able to advertise using a proven result?
why do all the purveyors of dice seminars use each other as reference?
why not use an independent testing facility as a reference?
notarized proof or it doesn't exist.
next!

Next!
Out of 1 million gorillas (they are smarter than chimps) throwing dice at Craps for 36 rolls, about 430,000 of them will end up with a 7.2 or higher SRR.
I bet on their throws.
Should be real easy to spot the DIs in that group.

They only want bananas in return!

don't forget to qualify them by watching them roll five times before you bet.
you wouldn't want to bet on a 'random roller'.
i hate it when that happens

Here's why I think it is possible.

Let's say I throw the dice 12 times, but I only exhibit control 1 of those 12 times. And by control, let's say I use the hardway set, and I either throw a hardway, a single pitch or one off axis. Thus I'm reducing the seven, two and twelve, and the other numbers are filling in as probability would indicate. That really isn't a huge amount of control in my mind. But even with that small of control you could get an advantage. So I crunched some numbers and came up with these easy ones to work with:


Rolls: 3024


02: 77
03: 172
04: 258
05: 344
06: 430

07: 462

08: 430
09: 344
10: 258
11: 172
12: 77

SRR: 6.54
BSR: 4.47



So with these numbers, I'll have an advantage on all the inside numbers. 3.4% for the 4/10 buys, 2.4% on the 5/9 and 4.4% on the 6/8.

I also don't think tiny vibrations from people walking around or air temperature is going to have a noticable effect on someone's control. Chips in the way would though, so having a crowded table is probably the biggest detriment to dice control.

And if you look at Put bets for the inside numbers with 10X odds, your advantage is even better. If I'm making Put bets 5 with 50 odds on the inside numbers, I'll make 9,200 of profit based on these numbers. It'll take at least 6 months of play to get that many rolls, so 20K a year certainly isn't a living, and with all the other expenses that come with it, you're making even less.

Anything is possible.
Good work, but ANY size of a roll distribution has advantages on certain numbers due to simple variance.
sqrt(N*P*Q)

462 7s in 3024 dice rolls is well within the normal ranges of outcomes to be expected using any random dice rolls.

Now, do your math over 10 million sets of 3024 rolls and see what you get.
I bet you it is a normal multinomial distribution

Money $$$ is in the videos and selling books and seminars! Period.
Too much risk at the Craps tables.

Quote: ewjones080

Here's why I think it is possible.

Let's say I throw the dice 12 times, but I only exhibit control 1 of those 12 times. And by control, let's say I use the hardway set, and I either throw a hardway, a single pitch or one off axis. Thus I'm reducing the seven, two and twelve, and the other numbers are filling in as probability would indicate. That really isn't a huge amount of control in my mind.

Really? It's an enormous amount of control in my estimation. You're saying that one time in 12, you can produce a dice distribution that contains:
hard
4, 6, 8, 10
easy
3, 5, 6, 8 (2-1, 2-3, 2-4, 2-6)
4, 5, 8, 9 (3-1, 3-2, 3-5, 3-6)
5, 6, 9, 10 (4-1, 4-2, 4-5, 4-6)
6, 8, 9, 11 (5-1, 5-3, 5-4, 5-6)

You've completely eliminated 16 of the 36 combinations from appearing, including all the 7s, on that roll. Do you actually think you can do that at all, let alone one time in 12?

I've played Craps and thrown the dice a few times. Had a good roll the second time.
I can throw the dice way better and easier than I can throw a baseball.

Watching a few shooters really take their time and set the dice and toss them to hit the center of the wall and lightly come back seems to me to be the easiest way to keep them rolling the way you would want.

If this happens just a small percentage of the time I would just guess that one can bet on the numbers that are rolling more than the numbers that are not.
Is this what DI is really all about?

If yes, a woman should be able to do this way better than a man.
We have the softest touch!
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

If yes, a woman should be able to do this way better than a man.
We have the softest touch!

great selling point, i think i am ready to start a seminar!
maybe hire some models as instructors, this could be a win!

Would the seminars be held at Mustang ranch ?/ LOL

Quote: buzzpaff

Would the seminars be held at Mustang ranch ?/ LOL

even better,
learn how to bang out hard sixes, hard eights, and hard tens.
hard fours need not apply

Quote: MathExtremist

Really? It's an enormous amount of control in my estimation. You're saying that one time in 12, you can produce a dice distribution that contains:
hard
4, 6, 8, 10
easy
3, 5, 6, 8 (2-1, 2-3, 2-4, 2-6)
4, 5, 8, 9 (3-1, 3-2, 3-5, 3-6)
5, 6, 9, 10 (4-1, 4-2, 4-5, 4-6)
6, 8, 9, 11 (5-1, 5-3, 5-4, 5-6)

You've completely eliminated 16 of the 36 combinations from appearing, including all the 7s, on that roll. Do you actually think you can do that at all, let alone one time in 12?

"At all" how many times in how many times? :)

I think people over estimate how easy it for the dice to tumble chaotically on landing. But whoever suggested a single dice throw would be a good starting experiment. Can you throw a casino dice 8 foot and get it to land on a single number (or even on-axis, for the entire flight/roll). Can you do it with "touching' the back wall each time? etc. etc.

I think you'd find it much harder. Pitching a baseball accurately is hard. Pitching it so it always has the logo front and centre and the right way up as it cross the plate each time, even harder. With a baseball, you can help the flight stabilize with spin. Look at knuckle ballers... they are trying to pitch without spin so the final destination is unknown.

Quote: MathExtremist

Really? It's an enormous amount of control in my estimation. You're saying that one time in 12, you can produce a dice distribution that contains:
hard
4, 6, 8, 10
easy
3, 5, 6, 8 (2-1, 2-3, 2-4, 2-6)
4, 5, 8, 9 (3-1, 3-2, 3-5, 3-6)
5, 6, 9, 10 (4-1, 4-2, 4-5, 4-6)
6, 8, 9, 11 (5-1, 5-3, 5-4, 5-6)

You've completely eliminated 16 of the 36 combinations from appearing, including all the 7s, on that roll. Do you actually think you can do that at all, let alone one time in 12?

Wait did I not calculate something right, because I filled in 3-11 (excluding 7) as probability would indicate, thus using ALL combinations of those numbers and only eliminating 8 of the 36 combinations. I guess you would still think that's highly unlikely and that's why this argument exists. I think it is possible and you and others don't.

But since I'm only eliminating those combinations 1/12 of the time, it's really like I'm only eliminating 8/432 combinations.

Quote: thecesspit

I think people over estimate how easy it for the dice to tumble chaotically on landing. But whoever suggested a single dice throw would be a good starting experiment. Can you throw a casino dice 8 foot and get it to land on a single number (or even on-axis, for the entire flight/roll).

I can, on a carpet. I don't think I can on a felt dice table, and I definitely don't think I can if I am required to have the dice bounce off the back wall. Everyone keeps forgetting that most casinos will require you not just to touch the back wall with both dice but to have both dice bounce off...

Quote: WongBo

great selling point, i think i am ready to start a seminar!
maybe hire some models as instructors, this could be a win!

OMG!!!
They charge that much for dice rolling classes!
$1,000 to $4000 for the works! (includes a pen!)

Way more than a high priced escort!

OMG!
This is a business for women!
"Craps can be beaten! It isn't easy and not everyone can do it, but then again, not everyone can be successful in business and life."

This is a perfect business for women.
We are so good at this already.
Say anything but promise NOTHING!

I love it!

All these dice roll school guy teachers are UGLY IMOH and they want my money?
No way I say.
How about the cutie redhead in the Wizard's Craps videos.
Yeah, you know what I'm talkin about.

Mustang Sally's Dice Control classes coming soon! (My classes will have CLASS!)
Don't come any sooner unless u just can't wait

Sally

I know who would be a perfect dice controller... one of them Kanamits. He would stand stick right 1 or stick left 1, reach out and simply drop the dice at the back wall.

You can look up the Kanamits on Google.

But I once came close to seeing that happen at the Bellagio when Shaq and some of the Lakers were playing craps. They only had to reach out to touch the back wall.

Now here is a movie plot: ex-NBA star gets down on his finances and has to get some money real fast. Card counting is out of the question because a concussion ended his career... and he didn't have much luck in college either.

So he enrolls in a dice controling school which advertised "Pilot your future with DC." He thought he was going to pilot DC-8 or other passenger jets.

Instead he found himself throwing dice, and discovered he didn't have to throw at all... he just reached out and dropped the winning numbers.

Yep. And no need for a practice rig at $79.99 either.

He becomes the star pupil, the celebrity spokesperson for the DI school. Unfortunately, puts me out of work, and Im left asking for UNLV to build a dice influencing machine as the credits roll....

Didn't I see a preview of this on FOX last night ?

Quote: MathExtremist

Dart throwing is not sensitively dependent on initial conditions (i.e. chaotic). If a pro misses a 180, he is likely hitting a 140 or 100. Moreover, it is immediately obvious that a dart player is skilled simply by correlating the results with the intentions. One can measure how far away a dart went from its intended target. Professional level dart throwers are those whose distance between intention and actual results is minimized. A dart throwing machine (a gun of some sort) could do far better. Robotic guns are well known.

What if the dart thrower were an expert and he was able to hit the same exact spot on the dart board every single time. On the floor below the dart board are four quadrants. Instead of cork, make the dart board out of granite and the darts are dulled at the point. Do you think that the dart thrower could hit the same spot on the dart board and have the dart bounce off and then land in one of the quadrants on the floor more than any of the others with any consistency?

When I worked at AT&T ,I came to believe that the decision makers threw a dart against the wall, then drew a bulls-eye around it.

Quote: s2dbaker

Do you think that the dart thrower could hit the same spot on the dart board and have the dart bounce off and then land in one of the quadrants on the floor more than any of the others with any consistency?

I have noticed that from a few Craps dice shooters.
Hitting the same spot each time and trying to hit the center of the wall.
They have even asked a few players to move their chips over, and they did.

I see there is a lot more to this dice control skill.
Maybe more than meets the eye.

Quote: s2dbaker

What if the dart thrower were an expert and he was able to hit the same exact spot on the dart board every single time. On the floor below the dart board are four quadrants. Instead of cork, make the dart board out of granite and the darts are dulled at the point. Do you think that the dart thrower could hit the same spot on the dart board and have the dart bounce off and then land in one of the quadrants on the floor more than any of the others with any consistency?

I think a machine could do this, yes. It would be harder for a human, but people can do crazy things. But what if, instead of the floor being divided into large contiguous quadrants, the floor is tessellated with 3/4" squares numbered randomly 1 through 6? And what if the granite isn't flat but is instead also tessellated with square pyramids? I'd be surprised if a perfect-aiming machine would have a floor-number distribution significantly different than uniform. I think that's a closer analogy to what needs to be done at a dice table.

The critics of dice influencing make such a big fuss of it. But do you also make a big fuss over the claims of the "advantage players" in video poker who claim they win year after year? Why is it that I buy their books and programs and strategies but I can't seem to win year after year? Are the purveyors of "expert play" just as guilty as those selling dice control?

there is a difference between teaching someone a mathematical strategy
which can be proven to be the most likely to yield success
and making claims that are unproven in any way.
most so-called dice controllers are unwilling to be tested independently.
buying a video poker strategy book for $20 is a lot different
than buying a dice control seminar for hundreds of dollars.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The critics of dice influencing make such a big fuss of it.

So do the believers. And the ones that sell, sell, and sell and say practice, practice, practice and pay me, not the other guys, more money to make you better.
I saw and still see many DIs that really slow the game down with the time it takes once they get the dice.
That is one thing a casino really hates. (The mob did not let this happen)
And the other, that is the only way a DI can have any control over their rolls is to "not hit the wall". They are great at it.
They do it the most.
They do not want to follow the rules of the house, they want their own rules

Quote: AlanMendelson

But do you also make a big fuss over the claims of the "advantage players" in video poker who claim they win year after year? Why is it that I buy their books and programs and strategies but I can't seem to win year after year? Are the purveyors of "expert play" just as guilty as those selling dice control?

I never bought into that VP AP play.
I say it is NOT ALL about perfect play.
perfect play without the "perfect distribution" IMO is useless. No one has the time in their lifetime to play the number of hands to see the returns of perfect play. My opinion only.
One may correct me in another thread with some math proof if they wish.

Quote: WongBo

than buying a dice control seminar for hundreds of dollars.

Excellent!
And... That is a discounted price. Try over $1,000 for the best teachers and methods.

Well, I am delighted that my humble couple of posts have stirred so much interest. It seems there's hope for this group yet. Or maybe not.

As I have stated previously, I am not opposed to having a third party track my rolls in the casino. However, those of you who know enough to understand the math of the game must surely understand that it's highly unlikely that you would be able to track enough rolls to be statistically significant. Unless, of course, those results varied so far from statistical norm that it would be essentially a mathematical impossibility for that event to occur without some outside influence. I could give you more anecdotal evidence at this point, just for giggles. Like the time I tossed six consecutive 12's at the table, then the following weekend toss aces four times back to back. Or I could talk about the night at the Golden Nugget with my friend Dice Chick (who loves to bet the horn) tossed thirteen consecutive horn numbers on the Come Out. Or I could talk about . . . but no. I'm not going to do that. Instead I'll give you some more numbers to crunch.

I think I'll post another book of rolls from one of my students. This fellow is a postal worker (scary, huh?) whose hands are almost perfect for influencing the dice. I'm referring to the fact that his fingers are slender and his hand is configured in such a way that his thumb is easily positioned straight up and down the back faces of the dice. Most players thumb comes across the back of the dice at an angle, requiring some fairly tedious trial and error practice to find the perfect alignment. Anyway, this book of rolls was recorded at one of my Crapsfest get togethers in Vegas a few years back.

The worst part about this guys casino sessions that weekend? I wasn't there for the big one. I was on a flight back to Dallas when this guy tossed a 96 number hand at The Palm. No pun intended. Here are his numbers leading up to that:

Toss Count 720

Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR) 6.79

Box Number to Sevens Ration(BSR) 4.86


Both Die On Axis 347 48.19%

Primary-Face hits 91 12.64%

Single-Pitch hits 188 26.11%

Double-Pitch hits 68 9.44%

One-Die Off Axis
L: 157
R: 152
T: 309 42.92%

Both Die Off Axis 64 8.89%

Hopefully by now you guys have gotten the idea as to how the numbers stack up as opposed to random tossed. The thing that impresses me about this guy - (1) the number of on-axis tosses, (2) the decrease in double pitch hits, (3) the near even distribution of left die and right die off axis - which demonstrates just how good this guy's dice grip is.

And now - it's way past my bed time.

Quote: heavy

Well, I am delighted that my humble couple of posts have stirred so much interest. It seems there's hope for this group yet. Or maybe not.

As I have stated previously, I am not opposed to having a third party track my rolls in the casino. However, those of you who know enough to understand the math of the game must surely understand that it's highly unlikely that you would be able to track enough rolls to be statistically significant.

I've already shown that 720 rolls would be enough to show there's a major something going on for a SRR of 7.5 or above. I could probably work out a 1% boundary for the BSR and other rolls as well.

If from all your books you believe you do have a SRR above 7.5, you should take SooPoo's bet. You would be a huge favourite to win, and that's what you are trying to be when you roll the bones with influence, so I don't understand why you wouldn't at least start talking numbers. Even if you can make 7.5, you'd still be a decent favourite to win (and quite clearly, if you knew the Math of the thing and understood the challenge better, there's ways to limit your exposure).

I'm voting that any coach who won't put HIS money where his posts are isn't worth the fees, why should I pay $600 to a guy who won't put his claims to the test?

Heavy I made the same offer when there was a challenge involving a certain controversial video poker player:

If you can get a casino to allow me to bring my TV camera in to record your performance, I will report it on my website, on YouTube and here, and if you make "news" I'll even put it on my TV show.

What's that expression down there in the Lone Star State?

Oh yeah: "He's all hat and no cattle."

Quote: thecesspit

I've already shown that 720 rolls would be enough to show there's a major something going on for a SRR of 7.5 or above. I could probably work out a 1% boundary for the BSR and other rolls as well.

If from all your books you believe you do have a SRR above 7.5, you should take SooPoo's bet. You would be a huge favourite to win, and that's what you are trying to be when you roll the bones with influence, so I don't understand why you wouldn't at least start talking numbers.

For the 7.5 SRR or higher would require 96 or less 7s.
-2.4SD from the 120 mean
probability: 0.0080684 or 1 in 123.9

DIs may not have the best grasp of probability and statistics.
They do not have to. Just the skill and the tools are required.

ME is right. It matters not what the actual roll distributions are.
If you do not bet for them and document each bet and result with each roll, seems a big waste of time.

Go for it!
and Enjoy the ride.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Heavy I made the same offer when there was a challenge involving a certain controversial video poker player:

If you can get a casino to allow me to bring my TV camera in to record your performance, I will report it on my website, on YouTube and here, and if you make "news" I'll even put it on my TV show.

Perfect. It should be at a casino. Rolls, sets, bets, everything documented that can be documented.

prediction: will never happen

Quote: heavy

Now, I am particularly amused when someone says "if I had an SRR of 7.8 (or whatever) I'd spend all day every day in the casino until I cleaned them out" or something to that effect. Come on, son. Reach in the bag and grab yourself a clue!

There's a reason why I tell players who are attempting to influence the roll to "get in, get up, and get gone."

It's because DI skills are fleeting as the day wears on. When I'm playing on a daily basis my average session is well under two hours. In most cases I am in and out of the casino in just over an hour.

LOL. We are all amused.
Anyone can print any numbers from any source and claim they are the real deal. Who cares!

What were the bets on the rolls you made? A few care.

ME and Guido are right. If you do not show what you bet and when, it is just all talk to sell your wares.

BTW, that is the best DI weasel clause "because DI skills are fleeting as the day wears on"
Now I can make that new tee shirt.

>because DI skills are fleeting as the day wears on

I don't believe in this stuff but usually set the dice for grins. I can confirm that it becomes exhausting, especially if it is just you or maybe one other player shooting.

guys... anyone who knows how to set dice can do it in a second. in fact, with a little practice you know how to turn the dice even as the stickman is pushing them to you. setting dice by anyone who knows what they're doing does not delay the game.

what delays the game are the random shooters and the average shooters who are ordering drinks, kissing their girlfriend, calling out what number they want to hit, throwing in late bets, shaking the dice in their hand... and those long rolls as the dice bounce out of the bowl and the other long rolls because the shooter threw the dice so hard that they bounce around the felt and end up in the stack and cause a no roll. THOSE are the guys who delay the game. It's not the practiced dice setters.

So please, drop the complaints that dice setters delay the game. Dice setters (at least the ones who know what they're doing) probably keep the game going at a faster pace.

Now... once we accept that dice setting does not slow the game, let's get back to the question of whether or not a controlled throw makes a difference?

Quote: AlanMendelson

So please, drop the complaints that dice setters delay the game. Dice setters (at least the ones who know what they're doing) probably keep the game going at a faster pace.

Dice setters DO delay the game.

Most dice setters do, anyway; I'm talking about the fleas who play with the dice, move them around superstitiously, and "fix them just so," as part of their moronic ritual.

I agree that savvy setters can and do quickly set the dice: but that ain't how most dice setters do it.

Quote: AlanMendelson

guys... anyone who knows how to set dice can do it in a second. in fact, with a little practice you know how to turn the dice even as the stickman is pushing them to you. setting dice by anyone who knows what they're doing does not delay the game.

what delays the game are the random shooters and the average shooters who are ordering drinks, kissing their girlfriend, calling out what number they want to hit, throwing in late bets, shaking the dice in their hand... and those long rolls as the dice bounce out of the bowl and the other long rolls because the shooter threw the dice so hard that they bounce around the felt and end up in the stack and cause a no roll. THOSE are the guys who delay the game. It's not the practiced dice setters.

So please, drop the complaints that dice setters delay the game. Dice setters (at least the ones who know what they're doing) probably keep the game going at a faster pace.

Now... once we accept that dice setting does not slow the game, let's get back to the question of whether or not a controlled throw makes a difference?

You're spot on. Drunk college kids can be the worse. Or the copycatters, that throw in center bets. They don't know what they want, they just want what HE bet.


Quite frankly I think a DI has nothing to gain and everything to lose by making a bet. If it's a relatively small sample, he could experience some negative variance, and lose, and lose business. If he wins, gamblers flood him with phone calls trying to take classes, but within a few months casinos across the US could change some rule about their craps tables to make DI impossible, cause they heard it's been proven and then he goes out of business anyway.

If I knew with 99% certainty that I could influence the dice, I probably wouldn't want to teach a bunch of people or be proven right because then they'd make it harder on dice controllers in the casino.

Quote: MrV

Dice setters DO delay the game.

Most dice setters do, anyway; I'm talking about the fleas who play with the dice, move them around superstitiously, and "fix them just so," as part of their moronic ritual.

I agree that savvy setters can and do quickly set the dice: but that ain't how most dice setters do it.

Well then let's separate the guys who know what they're doing from the superstitious fleas and wannabes who haven't a clue. If someone sets the dice quickly and knows what they're doing they should not be penalized.

Let's have a clock at each table. If you can throw the dice within a certain time period it shouldnt matter if you set them or not. That is really the issue here -- the time taken. Oh, and let's be sure that the stick passes the dice to the shooter just as quickly and the dealers don't delay the game to gawk at the natural and artificial wonders who walk by.

Quote: ewjones080

If I knew with 99% certainty that I could influence the dice, I probably wouldn't want to teach a bunch of people or be proven right because then they'd make it harder on dice controllers in the casino.

Youre right. The guys who really can don't want any publicity.

I know two really good DIs, and neither of them want any publicity. I played with them on separate trips. One is a surgeon, the other one wouldn't talk to me and I have no idea who he is. Both played at 5 in the morning when no one was around. Played for about twenty minutes, took the proceeds of their roll (they made about $3K each in twenty minutes) and left.

The surgeon and I happened to have struck up a friendship so I know his story.

This is why I believe in it, even though I can't do it. I've seen it. Ive seen controlled throws with inside numbers hit one after another, with nice soft, controlled throws that gently hit the back wall and stop dead.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Youre right. The guys who really can don't want any publicity.

I know two really good DIs, and neither of them want any publicity. I played with them on separate trips. One is a surgeon, the other one wouldn't talk to me and I have no idea who he is. Both played at 5 in the morning when no one was around. Played for about twenty minutes, took the proceeds of their roll (they made about $3K each in twenty minutes) and left.

The surgeon and I happened to have struck up a friendship so I know his story.

This is why I believe in it, even though I can't do it. I've seen it. Ive seen controlled throws with inside numbers hit one after another, with nice soft, controlled throws that gently hit the back wall and stop dead.

Interesting. Did they throw the same way the DI teachers teach, using hardway or 3V set, careful overhand grip, slow backswing and release, dice staying together, parallel to back wall, with slow backspin? Cause that's what I try to do.

And were they only making good bets, staying away from the Prop Box, taking max odds, and placing 6/8 or buying 4/10?

Quote: ewjones080

Interesting. Did they throw the same way the DI teachers teach, using hardway or 3V set, careful overhand grip, slow backswing and release, dice staying together, parallel to back wall, with slow backspin? Cause that's what I try to do.

And were they only making good bets, staying away from the Prop Box, taking max odds, and placing 6/8 or buying 4/10?

They gently tossed the dice right out of the book. Both happened to use the flying wedge or 3V set. Betting the inside only.

Quote: heavy

Like the time I tossed six consecutive 12's at the table

You must have done better than your $160 win goal that day. How much? Did you parlay those rolls?

I was about to post my figures that are much greater than those of HEAVY. But I just turned the paper over. There on the back
is a map of the Lost Dutchman Mine. So I am going outside now to saddle my mule. Will blog about my results after I return a
rich man !

ed43139

Quote: guido111

For the 7.5 SRR or higher would require 96 or less 7s.
-2.4SD from the 120 mean
probability: 0.0080684 or 1 in 123.9

Yep, I got that using a binomial distribution. Which is my point. SooPoo is on a excellent bet if heavy can't roll 7.5 SRR. Heavy is on an excellent bet if he can.

Hell, make it 103 or less (7.0 SRR), and there's a 4% chance of making it on normal dice, and 80% chance of making if you can roll 7.5 SRR. Both sides whould think they have a big fat advantage.

Ive seen two real expert shooters at work. I'm willing to give Heavy a chance to show the world too. I will put him on TV and YouTube and on any forum that wants the video if he will clear this to be done at a casino.

I do know that the two guys who really can do it will not do it on TV.

I don't doubt that some people have the skill. I do doubt that it can be taught in a series of lessons. I do believe that with practice it can work. Tiger Woods, Dan Marino, Sandy Koufax are a few of the experts who, with practice, got there. So how many Tigers, Dans and Sandys can there be in this world?

If Heavy can do what he says -- and I don't doubt he can do it -- let's show the stuff.

Everyone who believes in telekinesis, raise my hand.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ive seen two real expert shooters at work. I'm willing to give Heavy a chance to show the world too. I will put him on TV and YouTube and on any forum that wants the video if he will clear this to be done at a casino.

Heavy only wants easy money. We all can see that.
easy $$$.

You, Alan are going to have to pay him a lot of easy money.

But he will not bite.

Too high of a risk of losing when on TV.
That could ruin him.
Unless you two make a reality TV series.
Craps with the Stars
Next week... "Heavy Action in Vegas"

Quote: heavy

In any case, here are the results of those rolls. Hopefully the format will hold on the bulletin board.

Toss Count 720
Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR) 7.83
Box Number to Sevens Ration(BSR) 5.62

Both Die On Axis 333 46.25%
Primary-Face hits 86 11.94%
Single-Pitch hits 182 25.28%
Double-Pitch hits 65 9.03%
One-Die Off Axis
L: 153 R: 145
T: 298 41.39%
Both Die Off Axis 89 12.36%

Okay, now let's look at totally random results based on a 36 number distribution:

Toss Count 36
Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR) 6.00
Box Number to Sevens Ration(BSR) 4.00

Both Die On Axis 16 44.44%
Primary-Face hits 4 11.11%
Single-Pitch hits 8 22.22%
Double-Pitch hits 4 11.11%

One-Die Off Axis L: 8 44.44%
R: 8
T: 16
Both Die Off Axis 4 11.11%

Okay, a couple of cut and paste glitches but close enough. That last set of number gives you the percentages for purely random results.

The things I like about my numbers: Roughly a 2% point reduction in the number of double pitches with a 3% increase in single pitch results and about a one and a half point increase in tossing both dice on axis.

I read to about page 4 and couldn't take it - then jumped to reply - sorry if this is redundant to what somewhat else has said.

First of Heavy, I think that it is quit possible someone can be talented enough to be very skilled at throwing objects in a certain way to get a desired result. I doubt it is worth most of us to try and do it. People make millions being able to bounce a ball and put it through a small hoop while others try to stop them - not sure why this is much different.

HOWEVER, I think you should really prove it. The above means nothing to me. It isn't science.

Design a study. Pick an alpha (typically 0.05), pick a p value (probably 0.01) and do a power analysis based on your expected results (pick your beta) to determine your needed sample size, then run the trial to try and disprove the null hypothesis. Based on the results and your power anaylsis, people can decided if the results are clinically (or in this case - real world-) useful. Film it in front of people so it can be verified.

What's the point of us doing this 'he said, she said'? Just do the study with a good study design. If the design is good, and you end up with a p value of less than 0.01, or 0.05, or whatever you pick - it doesn't matter what people say.

It's simple really.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ive seen two real expert shooters at work.

Yes, so you've said.

My question: how do you KNOW, i.e. what PROVED to you that the results you observed were attributable to anything other than variance, aka luck?