How I Bet Craps Wrong
September 5th, 2022 at 8:30:55 AM
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Odiousgambit the only hedge is on the initial comeout where there is a passline bet, horn, ATS and a big red bet that onebok makes.
There is no hedge on the place bets and those bets need not be made.
There is no hedge on the place bets and those bets need not be made.
September 5th, 2022 at 10:46:42 AM
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Wrong again. The $25 flat bettor will lose 2.5x as much as the $10 flat bettor over the long run...regardless of odds. We are talking about the long run (the OP was about someone's results over 19 years). We should always be thinking of the long term since none of us are going to make one more bet and then quit the game forever.Quote: AlanMendelson
I never said it affected the math of the game. But if the point of 8 loses and you bet $10 flat with 10X odds ($110 bet) and I bet $25 flat with $10 odds ($35 bet) I'm going to lose less money than you.
By your logic, a $25 bet on Big Red is better than both aforementioned options because if it loses, it's only a $25 loss. Less than $35 and $110. Who cares that it has a 16.7% edge
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 10:57:31 AM
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Ace2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
I care about my $300 buy in.
September 5th, 2022 at 11:04:44 AM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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Therein lies the root of your problem, Alan: ignoring the math in favor of magical thinking.
But we've tried to pound this fundamental truth into your noggin for decades without success.
You want to win at negative expectation games (as a non-AP)?
Your best chance is by making bets with the lowest house advantage and hoping for favorable variance.
But if what you crave is stimulation as opposed to grinding out a small win over time, go for it: no doubt you've experienced a wide variety of emotions playing the way you do.
"What, me worry?"
September 5th, 2022 at 11:11:14 AM
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Quote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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Therein lies the root of your problem, Alan: ignoring the math in favor of magical thinking.
But we've tried to pound this fundamental truth into your noggin for decades without success.
You want to win at negative expectation games (as a non-AP)?
Your best chance is by making bets with the lowest house advantage and hoping for favorable variance.
But if what you crave is stimulation as opposed to grinding out a small win over time, go for it: no doubt you've experienced a wide variety of emotions playing the way you do.
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But my actual play in the here and now is not magical thinking.
On the contrary, thinking that your bet results will mimic the long term is what's magical and fanciful.
Quote: MrVI am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.
September 5th, 2022 at 11:33:53 AM
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I’d like to remind everyone that, other than APs, we play for fun, entertainment, and the chance to win.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 5th, 2022 at 11:46:13 AM
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Well said.Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't give a damn about the long term.
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Those of us who understand basic math realize that what happens in the next hour is just noise. But after just one week of play, the superstitious guy making 15% edge bets will lose a ton more money than the sharp guy making low edge bets. For sucker bets, "long term" isn't very long at all
I get it though...you don't think beyond the next five minutes. And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 12:05:11 PM
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Two questions MrV:
1. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAY" in craps.
2. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" in craps.
tuttigym
1. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAY" in craps.
2. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" in craps.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 12:10:23 PM
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Quote: Ace2Well said.Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't give a damn about the long term.
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Those of us who understand basic math realize that what happens in the next hour is just noise. But after just one week of play, the superstitious guy making 15% edge bets will lose a ton more money than the sharp guy making low edge bets. For sucker bets, "long term" isn't very long at all
I get it though...you don't think beyond the next five minutes. And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
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"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 12:15:49 PM
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Quote: Ace2And you believe you can somehow control the outcome by making weird bet combinations and "hedges"
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This is another of your bad jokes, right?
You don't seriously mean this, right?
You're just kidding when you indicate that laying a point when you have a passline bet isn't a valid hedge, right?
Or are you finally admitting you really don't play craps?
September 5th, 2022 at 12:25:18 PM
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delete - bad post
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 5th, 2022 at 12:25:58 PM
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Yes, we do play for fun, but why pay 10x or 20x more in house edge if you don't have to? Someone playing a low edge game is going to win a lot more (nearly half of his gambling trips) than someone playing high edge games, Rough calculation: someone playing a 6% edge game can expect to lose nine out of ten weekends in Vegas! I would never continue playing anything that I lost 90% of the time.Quote: DJTeddyBearI’d like to remind everyone that, other than APs, we play for fun, entertainment, and the chance to win.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
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My average cost for a weekend playing craps is only about $400 (though the standard deviation is over ten times that, meaning I can easily go up or down $5,000). The edge is so low that, in 20 trips, I'll probably win 9 and lose 11. If that average cost was going to be 15x higher then I would never even enter a casino. I see $400 as a reasonable cost of entertainment for a weekend but $6000...no way. Not to mention I would almost always lose against that high edge. Craps is fun but not that much fun
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 12:32:26 PM
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Quote: Ace2
I
Yes, we do play for fun, but why pay 10x or 20x more in house edge if you don't have to? Someone playing a low edge game is going to win a lot more (nearly half of his gambling trips) than someone playing high edge games, Rough calculation: someone playing a 6% edge game can expect to lose nine out of ten weekends in Vegas! I would never continue playing anything that I lost 90% of the time.
My average cost for a weekend playing craps is only about $400 (though the standard deviation is over ten times that, meaning I can easily go up or down $5,000). The edge is so low that, in 20 trips, I'll probably win 9 and lose 11. If that average cost was going to be 15x higher then I would never even enter a casino. I see $400 as a reasonable cost of entertainment for a weekend but $6000...no way. Not to mention I would almost always lose with that high edge. Craps is fun but not that much fun
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yes , that's 100% correct
another way to look at it is that the casinos probably could not survive at all if even just a very high % of their patrons only made very low edge bets
players like you can have enjoyment at the casino because of the players that don't play that way
because of them the casino has much greater resources to offer comps too
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 5th, 2022 at 12:33:41 PM
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Quote: tuttigymTwo questions MrV:
1. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAY" in craps.
2. Define an "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" in craps.
i can only think of two, both of which require the aid of another at the talbe.
1. If a player makes a PL bet w/o odds, ask him if he'll let you put down an odds bet for yourself behind his PL bet; and
2. It a DP player has six or eight as a point and doesn't like it (too close to seven) offer to buy it off him for the price of his original bet.
All other stuff, including DI is "magical thinking."
"What, me worry?"
September 5th, 2022 at 12:35:00 PM
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Quote: Ace2
My average cost for a weekend playing craps is only about $400 (though the standard deviation is over ten times that, meaning I can easily go up or down $5,000).
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You know what I do when I lose my buy in? I leave.
I must be a stupid person who knows nothing about math.
September 5th, 2022 at 12:37:03 PM
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Actually, when I feel a seven is coming, I just throw a black chip on Big Red (I press it up to $500). Plus I place bet all numbers and I also bet the horn as a hedge against the seven not showing up. That's how you hedge a $100 PL bet plus $5 in oddsQuote: AlanMendelson
You're just kidding when you indicate that laying a point when you have a passline bet isn't a valid hedge, right?
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It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 12:39:24 PM
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If you keep the house edge down to less than 1% overall, as I think you have indicated you do, you must be making some large bets. To lose $400 against a 0.5% HE would mean you wagered $80,000Quote: Ace2Yes, we do play for fun, but why pay 10x or 20x more in house edge if you don't have to? Someone playing a low edge game is going to win a lot more (nearly half of his gambling trips) than someone playing high edge games, Rough calculation: someone playing a 6% edge game can expect to lose nine out of ten weekends in Vegas! I would never continue playing anything that I lost 90% of the time.Quote: DJTeddyBearI’d like to remind everyone that, other than APs, we play for fun, entertainment, and the chance to win.
If it were exclusively about the math and long term, we would never even enter a casino.
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My average cost for a weekend playing craps is only about $400 (though the standard deviation is over ten times that, meaning I can easily go up or down $5,000). The edge is so low that, in 20 trips, I'll probably win 9 and lose 11. If that average cost was going to be 15x higher then I would never even enter a casino. I see $400 as a reasonable cost of entertainment for a weekend but $6000...no way. Not to mention I would almost always lose against that high edge. Craps is fun but not that much fun
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For comparison, I am currently trying to keep my total action down to $2000 per 2 hr session. At 0.5% that's $10 per session, and I might do 4-5 sessions over 2 days .. at most
but then there's the tipping
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 5th, 2022 at 12:52:34 PM
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When you play 3-point molly/dolly with max odds, you can and will have up to 21x your PL/DP flat bet out on the table. It adds up. That's part of what makes 3pm/d fun: lots of variance, especially of total amount betQuote: odiousgambitIf you keep the house edge down to less than 1% overall, as I think you have indicated you do, you must be making some large bets. To lose $400 against a 0.5% HE would mean you wagered $80,000
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 12:55:36 PM
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And I bet that's what almost always happensQuote: AlanMendelson
You know what I do when I lose my buy in?
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 1:04:14 PM
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Quote: Ace2
My average cost for a weekend playing craps is only about $400 (though the standard deviation is over ten times that, meaning I can easily go up or down $5,000). The edge is so low that, in 20 trips, I'll probably win 9 and lose 11.
Win only 9 of 20 trips? You need to change your approach or take up something you could be good at like shuffleboard.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 1:07:45 PM
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Quote: Ace2Actually, when I feel a seven is coming, I just throw a black chip on Big Red (I press it up to $500). Plus I place bet all numbers and I also bet the horn as a hedge against the seven not showing up. That's how you hedge a $100 PL bet plus $5 in oddsQuote: AlanMendelson
You're just kidding when you indicate that laying a point when you have a passline bet isn't a valid hedge, right?
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A black chip on Big Red. What's the house edge on that?
I no longer take any of your comments as serious.
September 5th, 2022 at 1:36:46 PM
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If the house has an advantage of 16%, the long run is going to catch up with you fairly fast. Some People tend to think the long run is millions of trials, and that may be true when you are talking about that exact 16.7% or whatever. But, one must understand that with such a substantial house edge, you're going to see a significant losing chunk of that 16% fairly quickly.Quote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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(After future reading, I see ACE mentioned something similar.)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 5th, 2022 at 1:45:16 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfIf the house has an advantage of 16%, the long run is going to catch up with you fairly fast. Some People tend to think the long run is millions of trials, and that may be true when you are talking about that exact 16.7% or whatever. But, one must understand that with such a substantial house edge, you're going to see a significant losing chunk of that 16% fairly quickly.Quote: AlanMendelsonAce2 when I go to the casino with my buy in, I don't give a damn about the long term.
I care about my $300 buy in.
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(After future reading, I see ACE mentioned something similar.)
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But are you talking about 16% of $300... or 16% of $5000 ?
I'll gladly risk 16% of $300 for a shot at winning $1065.
After all craps is a -EV game and discipline is needed.
September 5th, 2022 at 2:20:09 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelson
But are you talking about 16% of $300... or 16% of $5000 ?
I'll gladly risk 16% of $300 for a shot at winning $1065.
by that logic giving up 50% in vig to win millions in the Power Ball lottery is a great deal -
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 5th, 2022 at 2:29:14 PM
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This is your usual comment. You believe math/probability is some kind of theoretical voodoo that can only be witnessed after running billions of trials via computer simulation. So try this:Quote: tuttigym
"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
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Roll a fair die 600 times and bet $100 on each roll. Low (1-3) you lose your $100 and high (4-6) you win $90, which is a 5% edge. You will see that, with a 600 roll trial size, you lose money about 9 out of 10 trials. So you don't need enormous computer simulations...you can clearly see the effect of a 5% edge after just hundreds of rolls.
That edge is comparable to placing the 5/9 or making an even-money bet on a 00 roulette wheel. A casino player could easily make 600 bets over two days. As an experiment, you could do 600 rolls in far less time.
That means that, while I lose 11 in 20 of my gambling trips (about as close to profitable as you can get without being an AP), you will lose 18 in 20 trips (!!!) with your 5% edge bets. It's amazing that people like you keep returning to the casino. Seems masochistic
Last edited by: Ace2 on Sep 5, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 2:45:46 PM
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Quote: Ace2This is your usual comment. You believe math/probability is some kind of theoretical voodoo that can only be witnessed after running billions of trials via computer simulation. So try this:Quote: tuttigym
"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
link to original post
Roll a fair die 600 times and bet $100 on each each roll. Low (1-3) you lose your $100 and high (4-6) you win $90, which is a 5% edge. You will see that, with a 600 roll trial size, you lose money about 9 out of 10 trials. So you don't need enormous computer simulations...you can clearly see the effect of a 5% edge after just hundreds of rolls.
That edge is comparable to placing the 5/9 or making an even-money bet on a 00 roulette wheel. A casino player could easily make 600 bets over two days. As an experiment, you could do 600 rolls in far less time.
That means that, while I lose 11 in 20 of my gambling trips (about as close to profitable as you can get without being an AP), you will lose 18 in 20 trips (!!!) with your 5% edge bets. It's amazing that people like you keep returning to the casino. Seems masochistic
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Math and probability are not theoretical but predicting long term results is theoretical.
September 5th, 2022 at 2:48:54 PM
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How is the edge even relevant? For a $100 bet I have a shot at winning $400!Quote: AlanMendelson
A black chip on Big Red. What's the house edge on that?
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It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 2:54:52 PM
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Quote: Ace2This is your usual comment. You believe math/probability is some kind of theoretical voodoo that can only be witnessed after running billions of trials via computer simulation. So try this:Quote: tuttigym
"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
link to original post
Roll a fair die 600 times and bet $100 on each each roll. Low (1-3) you lose your $100 and high (4-6) you win $90, which is a 5% edge. You will see that, with a 600 roll trial size, you lose money about 9 out of 10 trials. So you don't need enormous computer simulations...you can clearly see the effect of a 5% edge after just hundreds of rolls.
That edge is comparable to placing the 5/9 or making an even-money bet on a 00 roulette wheel. A casino player could easily make 600 bets over two days. As an experiment, you could do 600 rolls in far less time.
That means that, while I lose 11 in 20 of my gambling trips (about as close to profitable as you can get without being an AP), you will lose 18 in 20 trips (!!!) with your 5% edge bets. It's amazing that people like you keep returning to the casino. Seems masochistic
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I am not the one bragging about LOSING 11 out of 20 trips. Who is the masochist? Forget shuffleboard and take up speed dating. As far as your little theoretical game, I have better things to do with my time and money. Please, pray tell, what is an ADVANTAGE PLAY in craps, and what is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER in craps?
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 2:55:25 PM
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Do you actually think Bonus Craps has increased your return beyond what it would have been without it? Sorry to say but either with or without Bonus Craps you've passed the long run a long time ago.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonIn the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.
You have to try something different.
Perhaps, but do not delude yourself into believing that somehow your choice changes the math: your method will still lead to "a negative return" in the long run.
You've played craps now for ... how many decades?
I'd say you've reached or at least approximated "the long run," and given that, ask yourself "How have I fared, financially, playing craps all these years, how much have I really won or lost overall?"
This is the question all savvy gamblers, AP and recreational alike, should ask themselves periodically.
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I am not in the long run because I'm no where close to the long run with Bonus Craps because it hasn't been around that long.
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September 5th, 2022 at 3:06:40 PM
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Quote: UP84Do you actually think Bonus Craps has increased your return beyond what it would have been without it? Sorry to say but either with or without Bonus Craps you've passed the long run a long time ago.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonIn the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.
You have to try something different.
Perhaps, but do not delude yourself into believing that somehow your choice changes the math: your method will still lead to "a negative return" in the long run.
You've played craps now for ... how many decades?
I'd say you've reached or at least approximated "the long run," and given that, ask yourself "How have I fared, financially, playing craps all these years, how much have I really won or lost overall?"
This is the question all savvy gamblers, AP and recreational alike, should ask themselves periodically.
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I am not in the long run because I'm no where close to the long run with Bonus Craps because it hasn't been around that long.
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I am now actually ahead because of Bonus craps.
I never made money with the FireBet or with the Repeater Bet.
But Bonus craps has turned around my game.
Call it variance or call it luck but Bonus craps has made things different. And I don't have to hit the ALL.
Just hitting one side for $155 makes a big impact when betting small on odds and place numbers. I don't bet hardways unless I'm in on a monster roll -- but there have been few of those. Very few.
The person you should be talking to is MrV who has lost more money in casinos than I have.
Quote: MrVI am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.
September 5th, 2022 at 3:30:15 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: UP84Do you actually think Bonus Craps has increased your return beyond what it would have been without it? Sorry to say but either with or without Bonus Craps you've passed the long run a long time ago.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonIn the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.
You have to try something different.
Perhaps, but do not delude yourself into believing that somehow your choice changes the math: your method will still lead to "a negative return" in the long run.
You've played craps now for ... how many decades?
I'd say you've reached or at least approximated "the long run," and given that, ask yourself "How have I fared, financially, playing craps all these years, how much have I really won or lost overall?"
This is the question all savvy gamblers, AP and recreational alike, should ask themselves periodically.
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I am not in the long run because I'm no where close to the long run with Bonus Craps because it hasn't been around that long.
link to original post
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I am now actually ahead because of Bonus craps.
I never made money with the FireBet or with the Repeater Bet.
But Bonus craps has turned around my game.
Call it variance or call it luck but Bonus craps has made things different. And I don't have to hit the ALL.
Just hitting one side for $155 makes a big impact when betting small on odds and place numbers. I don't bet hardways unless I'm in on a monster roll -- but there have been few of those. Very few.
The person you should be talking to is MrV who has lost more money in casinos than I have.Quote: MrVI am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.
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That comparison is meaningless without knowing how much action resulted in those losses.
It’s a dog eat dog world.
…Or maybe it’s the other way around!
September 5th, 2022 at 4:07:08 PM
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Quote: camapl
That comparison is meaningless without knowing how much action resulted in those losses.
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Really? Only in a discussion on a casino forum, I guess.
In the real world the price you pay for a car or for a suit or for a pair of shoes isn't based on how much you spend.
September 5th, 2022 at 4:24:15 PM
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Definition: Someone who supplements his winnings by playing Bonus Craps, wagers less on odds than on his flat bet, knows the fine points of hedging his bets, sits out when darksiders shoot, and bets hardways during monster rolls.Quote: tuttigymPlease, pray tell, what is an ADVANTAGE PLAY in craps, and what is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER in craps?
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It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 4:27:39 PM
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50 trips to the casino with $400 in gas refills is not the same as the House Advantage, but it will drag my profits down. Now to figure out the minimum bets needed to stay ahead if I have a 2.5% advantage from dice-timing influencing on Bubble Craps.
September 5th, 2022 at 4:39:02 PM
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Quote: Ace2Definition: Someone who supplements his winnings by playing Bonus Craps, wagers less on odds than on his flat bet, knows the fine points of hedging his bets, sits out when darksiders shoot, and bets hardways during monster rolls.Quote: tuttigymPlease, pray tell, what is an ADVANTAGE PLAY in craps, and what is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER in craps?
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I'm blocking you. Don't waste your time reading my posts. I won't be reading yours. Nice knowing you.
September 5th, 2022 at 4:48:15 PM
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2This is your usual comment. You believe math/probability is some kind of theoretical voodoo that can only be witnessed after running billions of trials via computer simulation. So try this:Quote: tuttigym
"Basic math" is 4th grade arithmetic. Your math can only be accomplished by computer simulations, and the "long term"? You have no idea what that really is or means.
link to original post
Roll a fair die 600 times and bet $100 on each each roll. Low (1-3) you lose your $100 and high (4-6) you win $90, which is a 5% edge. You will see that, with a 600 roll trial size, you lose money about 9 out of 10 trials. So you don't need enormous computer simulations...you can clearly see the effect of a 5% edge after just hundreds of rolls.
That edge is comparable to placing the 5/9 or making an even-money bet on a 00 roulette wheel. A casino player could easily make 600 bets over two days. As an experiment, you could do 600 rolls in far less time.
That means that, while I lose 11 in 20 of my gambling trips (about as close to profitable as you can get without being an AP), you will lose 18 in 20 trips (!!!) with your 5% edge bets. It's amazing that people like you keep returning to the casino. Seems masochistic
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I am not the one bragging about LOSING 11 out of 20 trips. Who is the masochist? Forget shuffleboard and take up speed dating. As far as your little theoretical game, I have better things to do with my time and money. Please, pray tell, what is an ADVANTAGE PLAY in craps, and what is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER in craps?
tuttigym
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Tutti- Barring cheating, or personnel who forget to take your losing bets, or comps that are out of line with what you are betting, there is no AP craps. Our own teddys bet pass line with max odds and was overcomped. There’s probably an 8 yeAr old thread about it. I’ve had come bets left as come bets and not moved to the point. Been overpaid as well. But not often enough to consider it AP.
I love Ace2’s analysis. When I go (rarely) to play craps I expect to lose something like 11 of 20 trips. I mostly bet pass line with continual come bets with odds on both. Low HE, high variance.
Alan—- you are NOT betting wrong. It’s your money, and if you chose to give up a lot of EV to enjoy your system, then go for it! It is only ‘wrong’ if you somehow think it is increasing your chance to win.
Decades ago went to Vegas on a junket. Had to put in 20 hours at the tables to make everything free. Friend’s wife had to do the same, but wasn’t a gambler, and knew NOTHING about gambling. So she was placed at a craps table and just bet $5 on the pass line and nothing else. When she had a good roll there was another player that would put up odds for her! It happened enough times that she DEFINITELY was playing with a significant advantage! She was the last ‘AP’ craps player I I had ever seen.
September 5th, 2022 at 5:16:13 PM
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Well, now you’ve gone completely ridiculous.Quote: Ace2Actually, when I feel a seven is coming, I just throw a black chip on Big Red (I press it up to $500). link to original post
$100 on big red pays $400.
$99 hopping 7 pays $429.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 5th, 2022 at 5:37:33 PM
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I'm thinking about doing a horn bet progression after watching someone hit 7 horn bets in a row.\
My starting bet would be $6 on the 3,11 and $3 on the 2, 12. The 3,11 pays $96 and the 2,12 pays $93. My next two bets would be $8 on the 3,11 and $4 on the 2,12. The 3,11 would pay $128 and the 2,12 would pay $124. I could go on but I've got to eat dinner from the microwave.
My starting bet would be $6 on the 3,11 and $3 on the 2, 12. The 3,11 pays $96 and the 2,12 pays $93. My next two bets would be $8 on the 3,11 and $4 on the 2,12. The 3,11 would pay $128 and the 2,12 would pay $124. I could go on but I've got to eat dinner from the microwave.
September 5th, 2022 at 5:41:07 PM
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Hilarious !Quote: ChumpChangeI'm thinking about doing a horn bet progression after watching someone hit 7 horn bets in a row.\
My starting bet would be $6 on the 3,11 and $3 on the 2, 12. The 3,11 pays $96 and the 2,12 pays $93. My next two bets would be $8 on the 3,11 and $4 on the 2,12. The 3,11 would pay $128 and the 2,12 would pay $124. I could go on but I've got to eat dinner from the microwave.
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It’s all about making that GTA
September 5th, 2022 at 6:42:46 PM
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For now it may have turned around your game. It shouldn't take very long for that to go the other way.Quote: AlanMendelson
I am now actually ahead because of Bonus craps.
I never made money with the FireBet or with the Repeater Bet.
But Bonus craps has turned around my game.
I seem to recall a time when you thought the FireBet was the best thing since sliced bread.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 5th, 2022 at 6:46:55 PM
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By now, don't you have wincraps or some program where you can run multiple short-term simulations and see exactly what's going to happen?Quote: AlanMendelson]
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 5th, 2022 at 7:29:16 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfFor now it may have turned around your game. It shouldn't take very long for that to go the other way.Quote: AlanMendelson
I am now actually ahead because of Bonus craps.
I never made money with the FireBet or with the Repeater Bet.
But Bonus craps has turned around my game.
I seem to recall a time when you thought the FireBet was the best thing since sliced bread.
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Never did I say anything about great results with the Firebet.
In all the years it was offered I never rolled all 6 points. I was on the Firebet only TWICE when all six were made.
September 5th, 2022 at 7:37:23 PM
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Quote: SOOPOO
Tutti- Barring cheating, or personnel who forget to take your losing bets, or comps that are out of line with what you are betting, there is no AP craps.
Thanks for the honest answer. I was fairly confident that there is NO AP in craps.
Quote: SOOPOOI love Ace2’s analysis. When I go (rarely) to play craps I expect to lose something like 11 of 20 trips. I mostly bet pass line with continual come bets with odds on both. Low HE, high variance.
I personally regard Ace2's "analyses" to be standard non-creative establishment rhetoric. Basically, I infer that over his "long term" of play, he has managed to lose tens of thousands of $$ even with his very low HE wagering. I find that unacceptable personally.
Your anecdote is not about AP but luck along with unconscious circumstance.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 7:57:12 PM
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There is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
September 5th, 2022 at 8:04:48 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonThere is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
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No there isn’t. No matter how many times you say so, it is still false. There are ZERO people who can legally influence the dice to overcome the house edge in craps.
September 5th, 2022 at 8:12:21 PM
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I pretty much bet only Bank or Player when I play Bacc. I very occasionally bet the tie but when I do it, I hit it often enough so that I've made net lifetime money on it so trying to tell me the big house advantage on it means I should never bet the tie is meaningless. Plus, I have had sessions where perhaps the only reason I came back from a risk of ruin that should have taken me down, is because of big win tie bets, so - factoring in the bankrolls I've saved from just a couple forty or fifty thousand dollar tie bet wins, makes me even more of a lifetime winner at ties.
Anyway, all that aside...even with no edge, and assuming the house edge remains constant: let's consider craps.
Back to craps. Which I don't play the game at all. Still. The one guy flat bets only the pass line plus odds all his life, expects to never net win and in fact...never net wins. Has little or no chance of beating the game. The other guy takes some chances with crazier bets and if he hits 'em enough times might end up a net winner. So who's to say that taking a chance on possibly ending up ahead (but probably ending up more behind than the flat bettor) is the poorer choice?
Put another way, If you're too careful, your whole life can become a f'in' grind.
Anyway, all that aside...even with no edge, and assuming the house edge remains constant: let's consider craps.
Back to craps. Which I don't play the game at all. Still. The one guy flat bets only the pass line plus odds all his life, expects to never net win and in fact...never net wins. Has little or no chance of beating the game. The other guy takes some chances with crazier bets and if he hits 'em enough times might end up a net winner. So who's to say that taking a chance on possibly ending up ahead (but probably ending up more behind than the flat bettor) is the poorer choice?
Put another way, If you're too careful, your whole life can become a f'in' grind.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
September 5th, 2022 at 8:17:21 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AlanMendelsonThere is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
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No there isn’t. No matter how many times you say so, it is still false. There are ZERO people who can legally influence the dice to overcome the house edge in craps.
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For what it is worth, I absolutely agree, and not just the HE but the dice and game itself.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 8:17:48 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AlanMendelsonThere is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
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No there isn’t. No matter how many times you say so, it is still false. There are ZERO people who can legally influence the dice to overcome the house edge in craps.
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ZERO ?? That's an awfully bold statement.
But a DI does not overcome the house edge. The house edge is a mathematical fact based on the faces of two dice.
September 5th, 2022 at 8:20:44 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AlanMendelsonThere is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
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No there isn’t. No matter how many times you say so, it is still false. There are ZERO people who can legally influence the dice to overcome the house edge in craps.
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ZERO ?? That's an awfully bold statement.
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Bold but correct, Alan, bold but correct.
tuttigym
September 5th, 2022 at 8:23:21 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AlanMendelsonThere is AP in craps but it's so rare it shouldn't be considered.
The AP comes from true DI and my guess there are fewer than a dozen true DIs.
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No there isn’t. No matter how many times you say so, it is still false. There are ZERO people who can legally influence the dice to overcome the house edge in craps.
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ZERO ?? That's an awfully bold statement.
But a DI does not overcome the house edge. The house edge is a mathematical fact based on the faces of two dice.
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I don’t see what you mean. The house edge is a mathematical fact based on (1) the faces of two dice and (2) that each face has the same probability of landing face up. A DI would make (2) invalid so change the HE.
ETA: It may be that this is just semantics and we mean HE to be slightly different things.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
