AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 3rd, 2022 at 4:23:00 AM permalink
I admit I bet craps incorrectly. But my incorrect way of betting craps is comfortable for me and (I think) keeps me playing longer for less money.

I've been playing this way ever since Bonus Craps became standard at most casinos.

For discussion purposes let's say it's a $10 table.

I will always bet Bonus craps with $5 each on the Small. Tall, All. That's $15 total.

I'll have $25 on the pass line. (Yes. At a $10 table.)

I'll have a $5 horn high ace deuce on the cone out.

My reasoning:

For any seven on the come out I make $5 and all my bets stay up. If a point is set I lose $5 and the game is on.

For any horn number I profit $1, $2 or $11 (where i play) and i have a number towards the Bonus.

Now my real terrible sin and what I've been highly criticized for:

If a point is set, my bassline odds at a $10 table are usually only $10... even though my flat bet is $25.

I've been called nuts and worse by dealers and players but my reasoning is simple:

Betting more on the odds do not influence the dice to hit the point.

My second sin:

I don't start pressing until enough numbers have been thrown that I've won back my initial outlay. And my initial outlay at a $10 table includes $52 or $54 across plus $15 on the Bonus, and $5 on the cone out for the horn high ace-deuce, and the $25 pass plus $10 odds which totals $109.

So before I start to press I typically need a pass plus about 5 numbers to hit.

It helps when 4s and 10s hit or if an 11 is thrown on the come out which makes me $25 + $11 = $36 which almost pays for the $52 or $54 across.

My pressing: once I've won back my initial outlay I make baby step presses, adding only $5 or $6 to each number thrown.

Arguments against my betting: I fall way behind if the shooter makes numbers and points. Yes, I know that.

Advantage of my betting: I last longer at a "cold table."

Case in point:

I recently played with a $300 buy in. Another player at my table made a $3,000 buy in. I outlasted him because he not only was betting bigger starting with 10X odds on the pass line, but he was making full presses starting with the very first roll after the point was established.

Clearly this other player would have won more with a hot shooter but he was no longer at the table when a player threw the ALL which paid me $1065 for my $15 bet on the Small, Tall, All.

Fire away.
TumblingBones
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September 3rd, 2022 at 6:03:02 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I admit I bet craps incorrectly.

No argument there.
Quote: AlanMendelson


Now my real terrible sin and what I've been highly criticized for:

If a point is set, my bassline odds at a $10 table are usually only $10... even though my flat bet is $25.

I've been called nuts and worse by dealers and players but my reasoning is simple:

Betting more on the odds do not influence the dice to hit the point.

link to original post


Betting more on the odds won't influence the dice but it will change how much you win or lose. Look at some possible outcomes for a $25 flat bet vs $10 with $15 odds:
1) Come-out roll is a 2, 3, or 12: loss of $25 for your flat bet vs loss of $10 for the $10/$15 bet
2) Point is 4, which shooter makes: flat betting wins $25; odds betting wins $40
3) Point is 4 but shooter craps out: both strategies lose $25
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
unJon
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September 3rd, 2022 at 6:14:19 AM permalink
I won’t give you a hard time about how you play. I do agree with post above mine. You’ll last longer if you switch to a $10 pass line and $25 odds bet rather than a $25 pass line and $10 odds bet.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
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September 3rd, 2022 at 6:20:59 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

[snips] ... If a point is set, my bassline odds at a $10 table are usually only $10... even though my flat bet is $25.

I've been called nuts and worse by dealers and players but my reasoning is simple:

Betting more on the odds do not influence the dice to hit the point.

Yep, nuts. You say you know better now. I assume you mean you know it is better to put $10 on the line bet and $25 on the odds if you want the total bet to be $35. Why are you finding it so hard to change?

Quote:

My second sin:

I don't start pressing until enough numbers have been thrown that I've won back my initial outlay.

About this one I have no criticism. I *would* suggest pressing with odds only since you have 'room' to do so. I would except it would be so strongly resisted I'd be wasting my breath.
link to original post

You have a third sin. Look, we Craps players, besides maybe the newbies or the almost-never-play types, are going to want more action than just the line bet. And more variance than just the line bet, probably even more important. So you are not a sinner because you want more action with higher variance ... it's the bets you are choosing. Maybe until recently it was too hard for the average guy to know the house edge on the bets. This is all readily available now.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
tuttigym
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September 3rd, 2022 at 7:31:10 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I don't start pressing until enough numbers have been thrown that I've won back my initial outlay. And my initial outlay at a $10 table includes $52 or $54 across plus $15 on the Bonus, and $5 on the cone out for the horn high ace-deuce, and the $25 pass plus $10 odds which totals $109.

Advantage of my betting: I last longer at a "cold table."


Forgive my confusion, but after the point is established, you have $89 at risk for the ensuing rolls. Most hands last about 4-5 rolls before a final outcome. If there is a "cold table," say immediate 7 outs, you will lose $89 or a large portion thereof.
1. How does this "cold table" create a longer run for your small $300 bankroll ($267 loss or thereabouts)?
2. You would need to hit at least 6 PB's to break even with the initial wagers on the table. Isn't that scenario a bit unlikely?

tuttigym
DJTeddyBear
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AlanMendelson
September 3rd, 2022 at 8:05:26 AM permalink
I think you're getting the reactions at the table that you're getting because you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - an even money bet.

I also think that prior responders, and certainly people at the table as well, are missing the reason WHY you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - to cover bets that lose on a come out 7, namely the horn and ATS bets.

Here's an alternative you might consider:

$10 pass, and $6 hopping red.

On a come out 7, you'll win $10 for the pass, plus $24 for the hop. $34 instead of $25. If there's no come out 7, you can put down $20 odds, making the total investment only one dollar more that your original post indicates.

On a come out 2, 3 or 12, your horn bet does a better job of covering the pass and hop bets that lost.

Then...
If the shooter makes the point and/or has a come out 7, you're way ahead, and don't get any funny looks or negative comments.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
odiousgambit
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September 3rd, 2022 at 8:52:57 AM permalink
aren't bets 'off' on the come-out that might lose with a 7 rolled?

[I have to ask since I never make center table bets except on the rarest of occasions, some literally never]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DJTeddyBear
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odiousgambit
September 3rd, 2022 at 10:31:57 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

aren't bets 'off' on the come-out that might lose with a 7 rolled? link to original post

Yes, but horn bets (2, 3, 11, 12) are not only on, they are particularly popular on come out rolls.

The ATS loses on any 7, even a come out 7. You can kind of stupid since the odds would be exactly the same if the come out roll didn’t count.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
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September 3rd, 2022 at 11:04:57 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


My reasoning

THAT'S your problem right there. Always is and it costs you a ton of money
It’s all about making that GTA
MrV
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September 3rd, 2022 at 11:23:17 AM permalink
This seems a classic Alan move to basically "ignore" the math and favor his own innumerate system.

Nothing "wrong" with it so long as he has fun I suppose, but savvy crapsters who follow the math will cringe (see posts above).
"What, me worry?"
ChumpChange
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September 3rd, 2022 at 1:56:19 PM permalink
Last night I played the PL with odds and a PB that I would press, so 2 points would win me $9 each. The guy throwing threw some points, but not my PB. He became a Hot Shooter, then passed the dice to me. I must have shot another 30 rolls after his 20 rolls for a 50 roll hand, and I only hit my PB twice! See what happens when I move my PB from the 6 to the 8 because the point is 6 and vice versa?

If I had said forget it to making PB bets which were not hitting for me for most of the night and put more money on the PL and odds, I would have taken advantage of maybe 20 PL points and another 20 PL come-out winners because two other shooters were getting their points and a lot of them! I've never seen runs like that on the machine. Shooters getting 8-10+ PL points per turn. FOMO!

If I just bet the PL without odds, I would have been up 40+ bets and gone over the top! But I'm nursing a slight winning streak and may double my PL and odds bets and cover 2 PB's tonight. If I get far enough ahead, I may cover the 4 inside numbers for a progression on each of them. Or I could suffer 10 point 7-outs in a row and end up in a losing session.

When I press the 5 or 9, each winning bet pays for itself, so 2 hits are necessary among those 2 bets. When I press the 6 or 8, I need 2 hits on the same number to cover the cost of both bets.

I tried some Come bets, but I'd lose them on the Come come-out with a few craps in a row or lose them on the PL come-out with a 7. Winning 5 Come with odds bets and 5 PL with odds bets is similar to winning 10 PL with odds bets. But I would have increased my pass line bets if I wasn't making Come bets and won a lot more in this session.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Sep 3, 2022
AlanMendelson
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September 3rd, 2022 at 5:13:00 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

This seems a classic Alan move to basically "ignore" the math and favor his own innumerate system.

Nothing "wrong" with it so long as he has fun I suppose, but savvy crapsters who follow the math will cringe (see posts above).
link to original post



Go back and reread my first paragraph.
AlanMendelson
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DJTeddyBear
September 3rd, 2022 at 5:15:36 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I think you're getting the reactions at the table that you're getting because you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - an even money bet.

I also think that prior responders, and certainly people at the table as well, are missing the reason WHY you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - to cover bets that lose on a come out 7, namely the horn and ATS bets.

Here's an alternative you might consider:

$10 pass, and $6 hopping red.

On a come out 7, you'll win $10 for the pass, plus $24 for the hop. $34 instead of $25. If there's no come out 7, you can put down $20 odds, making the total investment only one dollar more that your original post indicates.

On a come out 2, 3 or 12, your horn bet does a better job of covering the pass and hop bets that lost.

Then...
If the shooter makes the point and/or has a come out 7, you're way ahead, and don't get any funny looks or negative comments.
link to original post



Thank you.

From other responses I can see that we don't have any other actual craps players here.

You were the only one to offer an alternative.

The others... well... they don't play.
MrV
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September 3rd, 2022 at 5:56:01 PM permalink
Hedging a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

Expose your money to the lowest HA possible: over time you should fare better.

Me, I place six and eight but PL and odds is better.

Start with two times odds and if it hits next go to three times, then four, and finally five: if you lose start over at two times odds.

There, a constructive suggestion from a real craps player, just like you seem to demand.
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
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September 3rd, 2022 at 6:15:59 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Hedging a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

Expose your money to the lowest HA possible: over time you should fare better.

Me, I place six and eight but PL and odds is better.

Start with two times odds and if it hits next go to three times, then four, and finally five: if you lose start over at two times odds.

There, a constructive suggestion from a real craps player, just like you seem to demand.
link to original post



I read that tip in the first book I ever read about craps.
It was written before Bonus Craps was offered.
ChumpChange
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September 3rd, 2022 at 6:18:48 PM permalink
I never plan on people getting more than one point per turn so I stay away from pressing odds bets. But I do plan on somebody hitting the 6 or 8 nine times in one turn, so Come bets are not appropriate for that hunch.
Wiggins
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odiousgambit
September 3rd, 2022 at 6:47:29 PM permalink
I am grateful for Alan and the rest of the 99% who play craps sub-optimally. Without them, casinos would not be able to offer such a "cheap" game for the rest of us to enjoy. Thank you! And yes, I do actually play.
AlanMendelson
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September 3rd, 2022 at 7:18:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

I am grateful for Alan and the rest of the 99% who play craps sub-optimally. Without them, casinos would not be able to offer such a "cheap" game for the rest of us to enjoy. Thank you! And yes, I do actually play.
link to original post



But I admit playing sub optimally and there's a reason for it.

This goes over the head of too many.

Of course if you live or die by optimal play you shouldn't play craps at all because it's a -EV game and there's nothing you can do to make it +EV.

So anyone saying they play craps optimally is fooling themselves.
Wiggins
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odiousgambit
September 3rd, 2022 at 7:40:22 PM permalink
Perhaps Wizard of Odds should delete his website. If it's not AP, it's -EV, so what's the point?

Keep donating your money at the craps table however you like. What's the point of this thread? Are you looking for some sort of validation? Or do you just enjoy arguing?
AlanMendelson
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DJTeddyBear
September 3rd, 2022 at 8:04:18 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

Perhaps Wizard of Odds should delete his website. If it's not AP, it's -EV, so what's the point?

Keep donating your money at the craps table however you like. What's the point of this thread? Are you looking for some sort of validation? Or do you just enjoy arguing?
link to original post



I presented a problem and so far DJteddybear has been the only one to grasp it and to offer a solution.

Reread what DJteddybear posted.
Dieter
Administrator
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September 3rd, 2022 at 8:14:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

Perhaps Wizard of Odds should delete his website. If it's not AP, it's -EV, so what's the point?

Keep donating your money at the craps table however you like. What's the point of this thread? Are you looking for some sort of validation? Or do you just enjoy arguing?
link to original post



There are ways to lose less quickly.
May the cards fall in your favor.
DJTeddyBear
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September 3rd, 2022 at 8:55:14 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I presented a problem and so far DJteddybear has been the only one to grasp it and to offer a solution.

Reread what DJteddybear posted.
link to original post

Thanks. I do hope you consider and try my alternative.

And for the record, I made a minor math error. I said the $6 hop red bet pays $24 when it hits. A $6 ANY SEVEN pays $24. Hopping it pays $26.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
AlanMendelson
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September 3rd, 2022 at 10:16:09 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: AlanMendelson

I presented a problem and so far DJteddybear has been the only one to grasp it and to offer a solution.

Reread what DJteddybear posted.
link to original post

Thanks. I do hope you consider and try my alternative.

And for the record, I made a minor math error. I said the $6 hop red bet pays $24 when it hits. A $6 ANY SEVEN pays $24. Hopping it pays $26.
link to original post



Your idea is good. I am going to try it. Thanks!
odiousgambit
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unJon
September 4th, 2022 at 1:24:22 AM permalink
well well

Alan must have prepared his response ahead of time; the OP challenges us to beat him up for what he acknowledges to be the wrong way to play craps, then pounces on us with the insult we aren't real Craps players. Nice.

Also, turns out he was looking for a solution. Didn't say so. But only a solution that suited his notions.

Somehow DJteddybear knew where to go with that. Let's examine.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I think you're getting the reactions at the table that you're getting because you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - an even money bet.

I also think that prior responders, and certainly people at the table as well, are missing the reason WHY you're putting your biggest bet on the pass line - to cover bets that lose on a come out 7, namely the horn and ATS bets.

you might have thought Alan would have mentioned he had that reason

Quote:

Here's an alternative you might consider:

$10 pass, and $6 hopping red.

On a come out 7, you'll win $10 for the pass, plus $24 for the hop. $34 instead of $25. If there's no come out 7, you can put down $20 odds, making the total investment only one dollar more that your original post indicates.

On a come out 2, 3 or 12, your horn bet does a better job of covering the pass and hop bets that lost.

DJT has chosen the word 'cover' instead of 'hedge'. And, yep, this is the old time talk that Average Joe Gambler likes. Hedging bets. An evaluation that looks at unweighted outcomes only,.

Quote:

Then...

here it comes
Quote:

If the shooter makes the point and/or has a come out 7, you're way ahead, and don't get any funny looks or negative comments.
link to original post

$109 is in action Alan's way. Don't you see Alan is just going to add that $6 bet? That's the way these guys think.

You'll have to forgive me for my lack of enthusiasm. But then again I've been pegged as 'not a real Craps player' I guess. If I was, I'd know what matters is whether the others give me funny looks or unkind comments. Avoiding those, I can happily just go along with my plan to lose all my money. That makes me a real Craps player.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 6:23:22 AM permalink
Odiousgambit were your feathers ruffled so now it's necessary to attack me?

I know that some of you just wait for your chance to pile it on.

Again my thanks to DJTEDDYBEAR who understood my question and provided an alternative.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: odiousgambit

aren't bets 'off' on the come-out that might lose with a 7 rolled? link to original post

Yes, but horn bets (2, 3, 11, 12) are not only on, they are particularly popular on come out rolls.

The ATS loses on any 7, even a come out 7. You can kind of stupid since the odds would be exactly the same if the come out roll didn’t count.
link to original post

TumblingBones
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SOOPOO
September 4th, 2022 at 6:38:01 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Of course if you live or die by optimal play you shouldn't play craps at all because it's a -EV game and there's nothing you can do to make it +EV.

So anyone saying they play craps optimally is fooling themselves.
link to original post


Sorry but it appears that you are misunderstanding the meaning of the word "optimal": "the best or most effective possible in a particular situation ".
I, as a craps player with an understanding of the underlying math, expect a -EV outcome when I play. But while doing so I try to employ an optimal strategy that maximizes the amount of enjoyment I obtain before losing my bankroll. The "optimal" strategy is one that balances the amount of action I get from my bets against the resulting -EV. I certainly do not expect to achieve a +EV situation.

[EDIT] I should add that the question of what is "optimal" is often subjective. For example, my wife is of the opinion that my responding to posts on this thread is not an optimal use of my time. She may have a point.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 7:31:55 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

Quote: AlanMendelson

Of course if you live or die by optimal play you shouldn't play craps at all because it's a -EV game and there's nothing you can do to make it +EV.

So anyone saying they play craps optimally is fooling themselves.
link to original post


Sorry but it appears that you are misunderstanding the meaning of the word "optimal": "the best or most effective possible in a particular situation ".
I, as a craps player with an understanding of the underlying math, expect a -EV outcome when I play. But while doing so I try to employ an optimal strategy that maximizes the amount of enjoyment I obtain before losing my bankroll. The "optimal" strategy is one that balances the amount of action I get from my bets against the resulting -EV. I certainly do not expect to achieve a +EV situation.

[EDIT] I should add that the question of what is "optimal" is often subjective. For example, my wife is of the opinion that my responding to posts on this thread is not an optimal use of my time. She may have a point.
link to original post



Thanks for a reasonable reply.

Does your optimal play include betting the All, Tall, Small? That was the point of my post which DJTEDDYBEAR picked up on.

Before Bonus Craps I was the regular craps player. I bet the inside numbers, I bet full odds, I wanted naturals on the comeout.

But Bonus Craps changed the game because a $15 bet ($5 in each position) offers a $1065 payday.

We didn't have that 30 years ago.

30 years ago how much you won at craps was decided by how much you bet.

Now... winning a lot can be accomplished by rolling what we used to call junk numbers.
UP84
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September 4th, 2022 at 8:15:25 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TumblingBones

Quote: AlanMendelson

Of course if you live or die by optimal play you shouldn't play craps at all because it's a -EV game and there's nothing you can do to make it +EV.

So anyone saying they play craps optimally is fooling themselves.
link to original post


Sorry but it appears that you are misunderstanding the meaning of the word "optimal": "the best or most effective possible in a particular situation ".
I, as a craps player with an understanding of the underlying math, expect a -EV outcome when I play. But while doing so I try to employ an optimal strategy that maximizes the amount of enjoyment I obtain before losing my bankroll. The "optimal" strategy is one that balances the amount of action I get from my bets against the resulting -EV. I certainly do not expect to achieve a +EV situation.

[EDIT] I should add that the question of what is "optimal" is often subjective. For example, my wife is of the opinion that my responding to posts on this thread is not an optimal use of my time. She may have a point.
link to original post


But Bonus Craps changed the game because a $15 bet ($5 in each position) offers a $1065 payday.

We didn't have that 30 years ago.

30 years ago how much you won at craps was decided by how much you bet.

Now... winning a lot can be accomplished by rolling what we used to call junk numbers.
link to original post

Yes, but it comes with a house edge of almost 20%!!
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 9:29:18 AM permalink
Quote: UP84

Yes, but it comes with a house edge of almost 20%!!
link to original post



I like to look at All Tall Small bet this way:

The $1065 payoff on $15 is 71-times your bet.

And... if I only hit one side, just 6 numbers, $5 gets $155.
odiousgambit
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September 4th, 2022 at 10:23:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Odiousgambit were your feathers ruffled so now it's necessary to attack me?

I can take the blows but I was defending the rest of the Craps players, any and all who refuse to be Average Joe Gambler. God and Country too!

Quote:

I know that some of you just wait for your chance to pile it on.

You literally asked for it. Then, after getting it, it was time to insult everybody evidently.

I was *nice* and said you're just needing more action and more variance like every Craps player. But I hadn't realized you were hedging in your $109 strategy. I would have criticized that too!

link to original post

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MrV
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September 4th, 2022 at 10:53:07 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Does your optimal play include betting the All, Tall, Small?...But Bonus Craps changed the game because a $15 bet ($5 in each position) offers a $1065 payday...30 years ago how much you won at craps was decided by how much you bet. Now... winning a lot can be accomplished by rolling what we used to call junk numbers.



So Alan, now that you've incorporated Bonus Craps into your system you can have it all: the slow "fun" of traditional craps play together with the possibility of a disproportionately large sudden pay day via Bonus Craps.

Gee, adding the possibility of hitting a "jackpot" via Bonus Craps adds the additional thrill of playing a VP machine (sans machine) while you're playing craps, with the allure of a big win just by pushing a button, or in this case rolling dem bones.

I believe that I now understand why you are going down this peculiar path.

Those clever casinos, coming up with new ways to flense and debone we crapsters.
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:26:14 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Quote: AlanMendelson

Does your optimal play include betting the All, Tall, Small?...But Bonus Craps changed the game because a $15 bet ($5 in each position) offers a $1065 payday...30 years ago how much you won at craps was decided by how much you bet. Now... winning a lot can be accomplished by rolling what we used to call junk numbers.



So Alan, now that you've incorporated Bonus Craps into your system you can have it all: the slow "fun" of traditional craps play together with the possibility of a disproportionately large sudden pay day via Bonus Craps.

Gee, adding the possibility of hitting a "jackpot" via Bonus Craps adds the additional thrill of playing a VP machine (sans machine) while you're playing craps, with the allure of a big win just by pushing a button, or in this case rolling dem bones.

I believe that I now understand why you are going down this peculiar path.

Those clever casinos, coming up with new ways to flense and debone we crapsters.
link to original post



A funny thing happened on Tuesday.

I don't always put $109 out for every player. In fact I can't since my usual buy in is just $300.

Sometimes I just bet $25 pass, $15 on the ATS, and $5 on the horn high ace-deuce.

And that's exactly what I did Tuesday on one player who shot from the hook.

Anyone shooting from the hook can only be a random shooter. But you never know when a random shooter will get lucky.

Well, this guy got lucky.

He only made two passes... but he hit the ALL for my $1065 payoff plus another $50 for the two passes. I never bet odds. I never placed another number.

After he made the ALL the first time I rebet the ATS for another $15 but he sevened out.

This wasn't the first time I only bet a passline with just the ATS and hit big.

That was a very nice return on only $45 bet.
MrV
MrV
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:29:37 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

That was a very nice return on only $45 bet.



Of course it was, and you undoubtedly enjoyed it: "luck happens" in the short run.

But in the long run...
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:34:48 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Quote: AlanMendelson

That was a very nice return on only $45 bet.



Of course it was, and you undoubtedly enjoyed it: "luck happens" in the short run.

But in the long run...
link to original post



In the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.

You have to try something different.
MrV
MrV
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:45:14 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

In the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.
You have to try something different.



Perhaps, but do not delude yourself into believing that somehow your choice changes the math: your method will still lead to "a negative return" in the long run.

You've played craps now for ... how many decades?

I'd say you've reached or at least approximated "the long run," and given that, ask yourself "How have I fared, financially, playing craps all these years, how much have I really won or lost overall?"

This is the question all savvy gamblers, AP and recreational alike, should ask themselves periodically.
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 12:11:32 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Quote: AlanMendelson

In the long run all those proper bets and optimum plays lead to a negative return.
You have to try something different.



Perhaps, but do not delude yourself into believing that somehow your choice changes the math: your method will still lead to "a negative return" in the long run.

You've played craps now for ... how many decades?

I'd say you've reached or at least approximated "the long run," and given that, ask yourself "How have I fared, financially, playing craps all these years, how much have I really won or lost overall?"

This is the question all savvy gamblers, AP and recreational alike, should ask themselves periodically.
link to original post



Two points:

1. The math of the game doesn't change when you're betting changes. The math is the math.

2. I am not in the long run because I'm no where close to the long run with Bonus Craps because it hasn't been around that long.

And now a bonus question for you:

How much are you ahead playing an optimum strategy?

Who here is ahead?
MrV
MrV
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September 4th, 2022 at 12:30:43 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

And now a bonus question for you: How much are you ahead playing an optimum strategy?



I cannot break down the W / L of craps and slots as I only record the final number at the end of a gambling foray in a casino: the results include / "blend" both craps and slots.

This is for both personal and IRS purposes: I've kept a complete, detailed record since April, 2003.

But to answer your question: Since then I am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.

As far as "the long run" viz. Bonus Craps: bear in mind the mathematical calculations take short term variance into account.

Luck happens: I've been on a tear recently, up five grand over the past several sessions: "Don't mean nothin;."
"What, me worry?"
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 12:33:14 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

I am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.

link to original post



Have you thought about non optimum play?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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September 4th, 2022 at 1:44:47 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: odiousgambit

aren't bets 'off' on the come-out that might lose with a 7 rolled? link to original post

Yes, but horn bets (2, 3, 11, 12) are not only on, they are particularly popular on come out rolls.

The ATS loses on any 7, even a come out 7. You can kind of stupid since the odds would be exactly the same if the come out roll didn’t count.
link to original post

I noticed an error when somebody quoted the above post of mine.

The bold above should say:
And that’s kind of stupid…
Sigh. Speech to text screwed me again. 🤬
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
Ace2
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September 4th, 2022 at 6:42:37 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MrV

I am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.

link to original post



Have you thought about non optimum play?
link to original post

I'll think about it for a minute.

If someone lost $63,000 over a two-decade period playing DP with full odds (0.27% edge), they would have lost $4.7 million wagering the same amount on bets with a 20% edge (74 times higher).

A loss of $4.7 million sounds non-optimal compared to $63k

If someone is comfortable losing millions when he could have had just as much fun losing thousands, then good for him. But he should not deny that his irrational, superstitious style of play costs him millions
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 9:59:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MrV

I am "down" $62,706,00 as of today.

link to original post



Have you thought about non optimum play?
link to original post

I'll think about it for a minute.

If someone lost $63,000 over a two-decade period playing DP with full odds (0.27% edge), they would have lost $4.7 million wagering the same amount on bets with a 20% edge (74 times higher).

A loss of $4.7 million sounds non-optimal compared to $63k

If someone is comfortable losing millions when he could have had just as much fun losing thousands, then good for him. But he should not deny that his irrational, superstitious style of play costs him millions
link to original post



No. You're extrapolating the same play using a larger percentage rate.

Non optimum play may mean betting differently than what he's been using.

Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.

It's not always apples to bigger apples. It could be apples to grapes.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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Thanks for this post from:
DJTeddyBear
September 4th, 2022 at 10:26:37 PM permalink
For all my critics I just want to remind you about something I wrote in the first paragraph of my original post about my betting:

Quote: AlanMendelson

keeps me playing longer for less money.

link to original post



Again thanks to DJteddybear who offered an alternative that I'm going to try.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 4th, 2022 at 10:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson


Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.
link to original post

Here's another blatant example of your math-denial. Bets with higher edge will lose more money "in the end". Every bet on the table will be a net loser "in the end". That's not debatable.

And I think I know what you're referring to: making/varying your bets based on feelings and superstitions. Totally fine if you want to play like that but don't pretend you have any effect on the math of the game,
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 4th, 2022 at 11:10:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson


Sometimes you might bet less using a bet that has a higher house edge and in the end lose less or possibly win.
link to original post

Here's another blatant example of your math-denial. Bets with higher edge will lose more money "in the end". Every bet on the table will be a net loser "in the end". That's not debatable.

And I think I know what you're referring to: making/varying your bets based on feelings and superstitions. Totally fine if you want to play like that but don't pretend you have any effect on the math of the game,
link to original post



I never said it affected the math of the game. But if the point of 8 loses and you bet $10 flat with 10X odds ($110 bet) and I bet $25 flat with $10 odds ($35 bet) I'm going to lose less money than you.

That's not changing the math, that's just reality. The reality is betting more odds to "bring down the house edge" only "works" when a winner is thrown.

Meanwhile, betting small on bets with big payouts (All Tall Small) gives you a shot at a big payday without betting big. While I don't hit the ALL every day I get a lot of pays for the small or the tall at $155 for $5 bet and that is not a one roll bet hopping a hard way. .

Your math is secure. What I do is not an attempt to change it.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:15:18 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Placing a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

I edited that for you.

There is nothing wrong with -EV gambling entertainment.
________________________________________________
Unless someone is set on playing x amount of time before they stop, it really doesn't matter if they are playing a -1% game or a -10% game. They are going to end up losing the same amount. At -1% it's just going to take them longer to lose compared to paying at -10%.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:30:40 AM permalink
Keep me away from ATS tables. I just hit the PL for 12 times in one shooter tonight!
Seems these ATS side bets and come bets are designed to keep you from rolling a come-out 7 after the point gets made.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 1:31:27 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MrV

Placing a craps bet is a train trip to loserville.

I edited that for you.

There is nothing wrong with -EV gambling entertainment.
________________________________________________
Unless someone is set on playing x amount of time before they stop, it really doesn't matter if they are playing a -1% game or a -10% game. They are going to end up losing the same amount. At -1% it's just going to take them longer to lose compared to paying at -10%.
link to original post



Axel you are absolutely right. Craps is a negative expectation game. And this devotion to optimum strategy and maximizing odds to bring down the house edge only insures the negative expectation.

Yes. It should be played for entertainment. And I'm going to go further and say it should be played for entertainment with the lowest outlay of money.
onebok
onebok
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Thanks for this post from:
AlanMendelson
September 5th, 2022 at 6:07:57 AM permalink
Since there's only 25 min bets at my local craps venues, when I am the shooter,
I bet 5/5/5 on the All/Tall/Small, 5 on Red, 5 on Anycraps, and 25 Passline.
(The casinos here only allow 5$ units in the prop bets so horns are 20, world 25,
15 for all 3 sevens, etc.)

If I roll 7, the Red wins 20$ and covers the Anycraps and ATS bets.
The PL win covers half of the initial outlay of 50$.

If 2,3,12, it covers my PL bet, the Anycraps and Red, and gained a more
difficult "junk" number towards ATS.

If 11, I can rebet the anycraps and Red and gained 15$ against initial outlay.

If I roll another 7, I decide whether to replace anything but the Anycraps bet.

At this point I have paid for the initial outlay but know that if the trend is
cold, people being difficult, etc, I'll forego replacing the ATS and Red.
I'll play two come bets with no odds and reassess whether to venture anything
more at that time. I know that these choices are abysmal from an -EV
perspective but have found after much experience that it allows me to play
longer without needing anywhere near the bankroll that most craps gamblers
bring to the table. I will not bring more than I am willing to lose for my
session bankroll, which any math guy would say is woefully inadequate.

Perhaps like Alan, I think that those that play with rather limited bankrolls
may find that using well-chosen but mathematically non-optimal bets and waiting
for an initial outlay to be recouped to some extent often allows for
a longer session and time to benefit from a better short-term positive
table-trend.

IMHO there are nuances to non-optimal betting that are made because the math
does not always benefit those with short bankrolls and timeframes.
I, for one, appreciate the knowledge of the math guys and the betting choices
they recommend. I will use these choices at times when I think I can afford it.
But I also like to hear how some people bet when they are challenged for
some reason and there is some rationale that is behind it. If the rationale is
idiotic it deserves criticism. Keep it civil and both sides may benefit.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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September 5th, 2022 at 6:20:59 AM permalink
Thank you for your post onebok.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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September 5th, 2022 at 8:02:00 AM permalink
Quote: onebok

[snip] I will use these choices at times when I think I can afford it.
But I also like to hear how some people bet when they are challenged for
some reason and there is some rationale that is behind it. If the rationale is
idiotic it deserves criticism. Keep it civil and both sides may benefit.
link to original post

I won't say 'idiotic' when it comes to hedging in non-line-high-variance Craps bets, though you might question exactly what you are doing. It's optional to make these bets, that's #1. It makes no sense to me to put, say, $109 in action with a bunch of hedging included when you could simply not make all those bets all at once. Plus, there are bets that you can make outside of the line bet that are reasonable in HE and much lower in variance than others, such as placing the 6 and 8 ... 1.52% HE and SD of 1.08 for those. Of course I recommend the free odds bets to get more action, but I can't deny the variance is high, too high for some esp. going max on those. 

But do it your way as long as you know what you are doing. I see that word 'cover' again. One -EV bet does not "cover", ever, another -EV bet, it only guarantees the house a profit on each bet combination to the degree they are in opposition as to what wins and loses. 

And I see that business of looking at outcomes without factoring probability. Now I realize we often do some extended number crunching to show this, but an easy math exercise is to calculate the EV of each of your bets and just add them. The EV of the total bet is the EV of each bet added up to one sum. You can look up the HE.

Quote:

I bet 5/5/5 on the All/Tall/Small, 5 on Red, 5 on Anycraps, and 25 Passline

Unfortunately the ATS bet has been calculated for HE as a bet but I can't find it 'per roll'. So that means we will have to look at the total bet EV as if you never add another bet, or pick one up if you can do that on the ATS. I'm sure no one ever does on that. 

$15 on ATS has varying HE, but let's say they are all the lowest, 18.3%. You just multiply, anyone can do this and get -$2.74

$5 on Big Red is a one roll bet that costs 16.67%, -83 cents 

$25 on the passline is a contract and costs 1.4% , -35 cents

So making these bets costs $3.92. Gives the house nearly $4 every time you make them. You might protest that you aren't making these bets sequentially, but all at once and are using the opposition of resolving to 'cover'. So how much does that help? On the HE the house has, zero, zada, zilch. Making an additional hedging bet adds the EV for that bet, is all it does. That and the effect on the variance, which is not house edge. 

The psychology of the betting is not tuned to losing the the excessive amount due to HE of the sucker bets, but does wince at the variance. So the idea of hedging comes into play, and is very prevalent in Craps. The house, you have to note, does not object to the hedging, it helps them not in HE, but in having the low variance for them too while sacrificing nothing. What they would like to object to is seeing you wise up and switch to free odds and lower HE place bets to get some action outside of the line bets ... but they can do nothing but turn the dealers into barkers for the middle table bets. You going for that?

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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