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billryan
billryan
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:01:47 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet $100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or $300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are $100 bettor then you obviously don't bet $300. You'd make a $25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to $100 ($94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable grasp it
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I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet $300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry $1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting $25, $100, or 1000K. For every $100 you bet on the pass line you will lose $1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:07:04 PM permalink
Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame. An utter lack of "HOT SHOOTERS" is what makes comebacks harder.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:25:23 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a $15 table…whether you make a $15 pass line with no odds or a $15 pass line bet with $45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every $100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose $1.41.
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It amazes me the casinos can keep their lights on.
billryan
billryan
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:25:51 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame.
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The difference is the HA in BJ changes and a player can alter his bet to circumstances. When circumstances get negative, the BJ player can take a smoke break or hit the restroom or simply lower their bet. When they are positive, the player can take advantage.
Is there anything similar in craps?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:31:58 PM permalink
Think of Odds bets like a double down bet (or more X Odds) that have no HA. In BJ, double down bets typically have some player advantage to them, but never a negative advantage.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:47:44 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: ChumpChange

Black Jack has a low HA on the order of 3X Odds, so that's an incentive. Kind of puts Baccarat to shame.
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The difference is the HA in BJ changes and a player can alter his bet to circumstances. When circumstances get negative, the BJ player can take a smoke break or hit the restroom or simply lower their bet. When they are positive, the player can take advantage.
Is there anything similar in craps?
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Absolutely not. Which is why craps is a negative expectation game and no betting scheme or system or plan will overcome the house advantage on every bet.

Even the don't players have a disadvantage.

Even the zero house edge odds are at a disadvantage because they are linked to the fate of the flat bet.

The only way to gain an advantage at craps is so rare and misunderstood no one would believe it's possible.

All talk about three point Molly's and come bets and dark side bets and hedging and pressing is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 26th, 2022 at 6:57:48 PM permalink
I've been playing WinCraps and I've hardly focused on the 3 Point Molly since I first started with unbelievable beginners luck followed by even more unbelievable bad luck. I thought I'd focus more on pressing PL bets and PB bets. But WinCraps seems to always turn on me with the most horrible luck after giving me beginner's luck for most any strategy/system. So I have just been too far away from thinking about Come bets much for a long time, except the example I gave at the beginning of this thread, which I was working on last December. I think I made solid progress on my 3 Point Molly strategies today.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 26th, 2022 at 7:59:15 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


I get it.
You know that a bet with a 1.41 house edge is a bad bet. Bad enough you don't want to play it, so the casino offers you a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge.You are so thrilled with being able to bet $300 on a bet the house has no edge on that you don't mind the paltry $1.41 you will lose on your other bet.
Would you bet the pass line if no odds were allowed? Or is a 1.41 house advantage too much for you?

Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting $25, $100, or 1000K. For every $100 you bet on the pass line you will lose $1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing. Does the three point molly change that?
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No, you don't get it. Don't look at it as "a chance to bet more money on a bet with no edge". Sure, can bet more money if you want, but most people are already betting at their comfort/budget level. So you take advantage of the free odds bet by betting about the same total amount per decision, but with much less on the pass line (1.41%) and much more on free odds.

1.41% is still one of the better bets in the casino. Better than most single zero roulette, far better than double zero, better than 6:5 blackjack, and almost as low as some baccarat. But why pay 1.41% when you can pay 0.37% (even less on the don't side). 1.41% can still grind you down, but less than 0.5% is almost like it's free...on a low stakes table you can make a 0.5% game positive EV just with free drinks.

I probably wouldn't play without odds because 1.41% is above my limit and also because, IMO, the odds bets are one of the most fun parts of the game. I always add max odds and I like the different amounts and payout ratios...spices up the game just like splits and doubles add variety to blackjack. The odds bets also increase variance, and variance is what gambling is all about

There is nothing special or complicated about a 3 point molly, it's just (up to) 3 concurrent passline bets.

"Edit: it doesn't matter if you are betting $25, $100, or 1000K. For every $100 you bet on the pass line you will lose $1.41 and for every bazillion dollars you take on the odds you will lose nothing." You still don't get it. Yes it's true the passline vig is 1.41% and zero on odds. We are talking about playing close to the same game with about the same amount of $bets, just with more on odds and less on passline
It’s all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 26th, 2022 at 8:07:25 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a $15 table…whether you make a $15 pass line with no odds or a $15 pass line bet with $45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every $100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose $1.41.
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It amazes me the casinos can keep their lights on.
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Cue in fire bets at 25% house edge, hard ways at 9-11%, horn at 12.5%, among a bunch of others and you are looking at slot machine returns.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Ace2
March 26th, 2022 at 8:08:02 PM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

If you are at a $15 table…whether you make a $15 pass line with no odds or a $15 pass line bet with $45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every $100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose $1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at $15 and $45 odds….if the table bends cold.
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Wrong analysis. As Ace2 keeps saying. Move to the $5 table and bet $10 odds. And you are doing better than being at the $15 table with no odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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