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Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:11:48 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But sometimes I can't help correcting basic math errors
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 26, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 26th, 2022 at 2:35:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But I can't help correcting basic math errors
link to original post



Part of the problem with understanding math is the way it's written in English... especially when you can't discuss it in real time.

We sometimes misinterpret words or have diction issues, using one word or several words incorrectly.

Think back to when you were in school. Remember teachers explaining things at the blackboard? (They were blackboards in my school-- not greenboards and certainly not whiteboards.)

It's easy to have misunderstandings because different words can mean different things to different people.
billryan
billryan
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:14:16 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

I find it amazing that across with pressure is the accepted strategy for craps, while being one of the WORST strategies out there.

Bet odds. Even if it's 1x. Bet them. Always.

I just finished reading Lyle Stuart's Casino Gambling for the Winner from 1977, and he talks about how some houses were offering 2x odds instead of just 1x odds. That should tell you what a deal it is for the player. On of the few things in Vegas that have gotten better for the player.
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That is kind of my point. When a casino or any predatory business offers you something for free, Beware. Take Care.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:26:20 PM permalink
Here's an excerpt from a quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts. They reduced odds from 3/4/5 to 2x because "craps is not a really profitable game at that level." And they list the 0.374% edge for 3/4/5. Apparently that silly marketing gimmick was costing them too much money

Not like anything was actually up for debate...but case closed!

https://www.covers.com/vegas/changes-at-the-wynn-could-have-an-impact-across-las-vegas-casinos

During last week's quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts gaming took up a few minutes of Steve Wynn's time. It's rare for a casino company to discuss gaming specifics on these calls but as bad as the information is for gamblers it's almost - almost - refreshing to hear such honesty. Steve Wynn discussed why Wynn Las Vegas recently reduced their craps odds from 3x-4x-5x to 2x.

“With three dealers and a box-man, and half of a floor man for every table - craps is not a really profitable game at that level.

So I changed the casino. In effect I raised the price. And I went to double odds only. Except for extremely high play with a thousand dollar minimum bet.“

The house edge with a 2x odds wager on the passline is 0.606%. The house edge on a 3x-4x-5x odds wager on the passline that you'll find at most casinos on the Vegas Strip is 0.374%. This is good for investors who may be upset that massive revenue from Macau continues to decrease (14 months straight now) but this is bad for gamblers.
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
billryan
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:31:45 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: teddys

Read all of Ace2's posts and listen to him :)

They aren't going to listen to anyone. You will never change the mind of a Believer

But sometimes I can't help correcting basic math errors
link to original post



I'm a believer in playing a game where I have an advantage. Craps is not such a game. It doesn't matter if you bet $100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or $300 at a 0.37 disadvantage. I believe you when you say betting bigger lets you stay close longer. You seem to be looking for ways to lose slower or lose less. I discovered that secret years ago. I'm looking to win more, with less risk.
I'm assuming the casino doesn't give any comp consideration for your odds bets, whereas you get a few pennies in comps for the pass bet.
By the way- I understand variance. I just don't bother with it. Short-term results are not as important to me as long-term ones.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:34:40 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Here's an excerpt from a quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts. They reduced odds from 3/4/5 because it wasn't profitable enough. And they list the 0.374% edge for 3/4/5. Apparently that silly marketing gimmick was costing them too much money

Not like anything was actually up for debate...but case closed!

https://www.covers.com/vegas/changes-at-the-wynn-could-have-an-impact-across-las-vegas-casinos

During last week's quarterly earnings call with investors for Wynn Resorts gaming took up a few minutes of Steve Wynn's time. It's rare for a casino company to discuss gaming specifics on these calls but as bad as the information is for gamblers it's almost - almost - refreshing to hear such honesty. Steve Wynn discussed why Wynn Las Vegas recently reduced their craps odds from 3x-4x-5x to 2x.

“With three dealers and a box-man, and half of a floor man for every table - craps is not a really profitable game at that level.

So I changed the casino. In effect I raised the price. And I went to double odds only. Except for extremely high play with a thousand dollar minimum bet.“

The house edge with a 2x odds wager on the passline is 0.606%. The house edge on a 3x-4x-5x odds wager on the passline that you'll find at most casinos on the Vegas Strip is 0.374%. This is good for investors who may be upset that massive revenue from Macau continues to decrease (14 months straight now) but this is bad for gamblers.
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What you say about the odds in craps is true. But in reality few players bet more than 2x odds.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 26th, 2022 at 3:49:10 PM permalink
Incidentally, the odds are actually "full double" 2/2/2.5 at Wynn if I recall correctly. I think they do that so odds on the 6/8 are more sensible numbers, like $250 pays $300 instead of $200 pays $240. Vice versa for don't pass odds. You never have to use chips <$25, and I doubt there's a <$25 table there

That call is from 7 years ago and I'm not that surprised that other casinos haven't followed. Eyeballing the average craps table, it seems the majority of bets are on place bets and, like Alan says, most people adding odds aren't betting more than 2x anyway. I think the Wynn's reduction to 2x just makes them look stingy more than anything else. Might even cost them some business (like mine)

Nice property but I haven't been there in years. It's too far north for me, I like to be more central strip
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
March 26th, 2022 at 4:23:08 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

It doesn't matter if you bet $100 at a 1.41 disadvantage or $300 at a 0.37 disadvantage.

Again, if you are $100 bettor then you obviously don't bet $300. You'd make a $25 passline bet plus 3/4/5 odds, which keeps your total average wager close to $100 ($94.44 actually) but allocates the majority of the wager to the free odds portion, reducing the overall edge from 1.41 to 0.37.

You are not increasing your wager, you are just reallocating most it to a much more favorable vig. This is a fundamental/basic point...and you are still unable to grasp it
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 26, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 26th, 2022 at 4:23:58 PM permalink
With $360 I could get 15 rounds of $6 bets with single odds using a 2 Point Molly, or $4 bets with single odds using a 3 Point Molly.
I'll have to figure out what to do when I get there. I may be sold on either one after today, idk.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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March 26th, 2022 at 5:28:43 PM permalink
If you are at a $15 table…whether you make a $15 pass line with no odds or a $15 pass line bet with $45 on odds…you are still expected to lose the same amount of money long term. For every $100 in pass line wagers..you are expected to lose $1.41.

The odds bet is subjected to volatility. If things aren’t going well, you are going to lose more money faster than the guy making a pass line bet with no odds. Some people value table time and their bankroll may not afford much time at $15 and $45 odds….if the table bends cold.

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