Three point Molly is the best beginner strategy?
I'm not a snob at all. But almost every time I've visited an off-strip casino (mesquite, laughlin, reservation casino) it's been a horror show. The facility might be fine but a clientele that makes walmart seem upscale. Oxygen tanks and walkers commonQuote: DieterQuote: Ace2Some players might want to seek out even higher odds than 3/4/5 like 10x or even 100x. I don't because the higher odds are always at remote and/or low-end casinos, and also because it's not that much of an absolute difference.
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Some of the most enjoyable gambling I've done has been at remote low-end casinos. I understand some of them have raised table minimums to $5 in response to the recent public health concerns.
I understand if your personal aesthetic demands a more upscale experience, but watching someone sweat when they've got $20 on the felt after splits and doubles is good entertainment.
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Quote: Ace2I'm not a snob at all. But almost every time I've visited an off-strip casino (downtown vegas, laughlin, reservation casino) it's been a horror show. The facility might be fine but a crowd that makes walmart seem poshQuote: DieterQuote: Ace2Some players might want to seek out even higher odds than 3/4/5 like 10x or even 100x. I don't because the higher odds are always at remote and/or low-end casinos, and also because it's not that much of an absolute difference.
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Some of the most enjoyable gambling I've done has been at remote low-end casinos. I understand some of them have raised table minimums to $5 in response to the recent public health concerns.
I understand if your personal aesthetic demands a more upscale experience, but watching someone sweat when they've got $20 on the felt after splits and doubles is good entertainment.
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Them's my folks. ;)
Quote: Ace2This all above my level of comprehensionQuote: ChumpChangeI'm trying to limit my 2+ hours sessions to losing 15 line + odds bets, or winning 15 line + odds bets. But if Hot Shooters make their way to the bubble machine, I could see a 45 line + odds win.
I'm also making PB's based on a split of the winning Come + odds bet ($6 Come + $6 odds wins then I bet $6 on each of two PB's, total of 4 PB's from two Come + odds wins). Then I run a progression on each PB. A super Hot Shooter could come close to maxing out a few PB bets for me on my progression (9 in a row). I'm also running a 9 in a row progression on the PL, but not the odds.
I'll raise the PL/Come + odds bets when I pass certain win goals.
I'll probably call it a won session when I'm up 105 line + odds bets.
I see structuring TITOs in my future.
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Well 4th grade arithmetic can be confusing and mind boggling.
tuttigym
Odds is a zero edge bet. Over the long term no one wins or loses anything.Quote: AlanMendelson
But what about the downside?
What if the House keeps winning because the House has an edge on every flat bet?
This is why I don't know if the casinos break even on the odds but actually turn a profit on the odds.
I cant imagine the bean counters allowing a true break even bet.
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During our last discussion of odds bets, one of our esteemed members actually asked why anyone would want to make a zero-edge bet! Claimed free odds bets are some sort of devious marketing scheme.
After all, odds bets are just a wash in the long term. He probably refuses to make any bet with a house edge under 15%...what fun would that be?
Quote: AlanMendelson
I originally asked if the House breaks even? I don't know. I don't see the books.
Does the House break even???
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Alan, never mind the math
doesn't logic tell us that the house does not do well on this bet (odds) and that is why they limit the size of it__________?????
if they were making money on it wouldn't the size of the bet be unrestricted (except by the table maximums)____________??????
.
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
I know the odds are paid a true math amount.
But each time I bet the odds the casino is still more likely to win.
Why is my experience different from the math?
Or, perhaps the casino is winning much more often EVEN THOUGH when I win I'm getting paid true odds?
I suspect that the problem is theoretical vs real world.
Theoretical it should be a wash. But real world I don't win on the 6 five out of six times... I win fewer.
You're mixing your odds bets with your high-edge bets.Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
After 30 years of regular play, the net result of your odds bets will be very close to zero
Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't know if odds is a wash for the players or the casinos.
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
I know the odds are paid a true math amount.
But each time I bet the odds the casino is still more likely to win.
Why is my experience different from the math?
Or, perhaps the casino is winning much more often EVEN THOUGH when I win I'm getting paid true odds?
I suspect that the problem is theoretical vs real world.
Theoretical it should be a wash. But real world I don't win on the 6 five out of six times... I win fewer.
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Bold added.
5 times out of 11. Not 5 times out of 6.
5 times out of 11 making that point on six or eight makes your 6:5 odds bet a wash.
Playing the dark side and laying odds will resolve your dilemma. With a point of 4/10 you win your odds bet 67% of the time, 5/9 60% of the time, 6/8 55% of the time.
No matter what the point is, you will win more odds bets than the casino over the long run. And that makes YOU a math-savvy winner!
Quote: Ace2You're mixing your odds bets with your high-edge bets.Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
After 30 years of regular play, the net result of your odds bets will be very close to zero
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What high edge bets? I dont bet hops or hardways... heck... I dont even bet the yo after I saw it rolled 17 times.
I bet inside numbers.
I'm still trying to figure out why I'm losing so much if I'm supposed to win 1/3 on the 4 and 10, 2/3 on the 5 and 9, and 5/6 on the 6 and 8.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2You're mixing your odds bets with your high-edge bets.Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
After 30 years of regular play, the net result of your odds bets will be very close to zero
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What high edge bets? I dont bet hops or hardways... heck... I dont even bet the yo after I saw it rolled 17 times.
I bet inside numbers.
I'm still trying to figure out why I'm losing so much if I'm supposed to win 1/3 on the 4 and 10, 2/3 on the 5 and 9, and 5/6 on the 6 and 8.
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Math wrong again!
1/3 on 4/10
2/5 on 5/9
5/11 on 6/8
Quote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2You're mixing your odds bets with your high-edge bets.Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
After 30 years of regular play, the net result of your odds bets will be very close to zero
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What high edge bets? I dont bet hops or hardways... heck... I dont even bet the yo after I saw it rolled 17 times.
I bet inside numbers.
I'm still trying to figure out why I'm losing so much if I'm supposed to win 1/3 on the 4 and 10, 2/3 on the 5 and 9, and 5/6 on the 6 and 8.
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Math wrong again!
1/3 on 4/10
2/5 on 5/9
5/11 on 6/8
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Unjon I'm afraid you're confusing true odds with payouts on the place numbers. Frankly I think you have a concoction of numbers thrown together here.
I suggest you Google true odds on points in craps.
Edited to add:
I'll do it for you:
https://www.onlinegambling.com/casino/craps/pay-outs/#craps-table-payout
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: unJonQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2You're mixing your odds bets with your high-edge bets.Quote: AlanMendelson
Frankly I've been playing craps for 30+ years and if the odds were a wash why have I lost so much?
After 30 years of regular play, the net result of your odds bets will be very close to zero
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What high edge bets? I dont bet hops or hardways... heck... I dont even bet the yo after I saw it rolled 17 times.
I bet inside numbers.
I'm still trying to figure out why I'm losing so much if I'm supposed to win 1/3 on the 4 and 10, 2/3 on the 5 and 9, and 5/6 on the 6 and 8.
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Math wrong again!
1/3 on 4/10
2/5 on 5/9
5/11 on 6/8
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Unjon I'm afraid you're confusing true odds with payouts on the place numbers. Frankly I think you have a concoction of numbers thrown together here.
I suggest you Google true odds on points in craps.
Edited to add:
I'll do it for you:
https://www.onlinegambling.com/casino/craps/pay-outs/#craps-table-payout
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Alan,
It has nothing to do with odds.
If the point is 4 or 10, you will win the point 1/3 times and 7 out 2/3 times.
If the point 5 or 9, you will win the point 2/5 times and 7 out 3/5 times.
If the point is 6 or 8, you will win the point 5/11 times, and 7 out 6/11 of the time.
These are basic craps facts. Not controversial. Do you agree with them?
Wrong. For the 4/10 you have 1 in 3 chance of winning, payout 2 to 1 or 3 for 1. For the 5/9 you have 2 in 5 chance of winning, payout 3 to 2 or 5 for 2. For the 6/8 you have 5 in 11 chance of winning, payout 6 to 5 or 11 for 5.Quote: AlanMendelson
I'm still trying to figure out why I'm losing so much if I'm supposed to win 1/3 on the 4 and 10, 2/3 on the 5 and 9, and 5/6 on the 6 and 8.
This is very basic
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
are your being serious or trolling? You said this was not about odds, but probability of winning. I can’t even figure out what you are talking about.Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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Quote: unJonare your being serious or trolling? You said this was not about odds, but probability of winning. I can’t even figure out what you are talking about.Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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To be honest I dont know what the hell we're talking about anymore!
Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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$150:$75 = 2:1
$150:$100 = 3:2
$150:$125 = 6:5
I think it lines up, but I won't get out of sorts if someone corrects me.
Quote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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$150:$75 = 2:1
$150:$100 = 3:2
$150:$125 = 6:5
I think it lines up, but I won't get out of sorts if someone corrects me.
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Looks good to me. But I'm wrong about math.
Surprising since those are not the ratios you posted a few hours agoQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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$150:$75 = 2:1
$150:$100 = 3:2
$150:$125 = 6:5
I think it lines up, but I won't get out of sorts if someone corrects me.
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Looks good to me. But I'm wrong about math.
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Quote: Ace2Surprising since those are not the ratios you posted a few hours agoQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: DieterQuote: AlanMendelsonGosh, I must be playing a different game.
When I bet $25 flat bets...
On the 4 and 10 I have $75 odds.
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 5 and 9 I have $100 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
On the 6 and 8 I have $125 odds
When it wins I'm paid $25 + $150
I've never played in a casino where I was promised to win anything... including the free odds.
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$150:$75 = 2:1
$150:$100 = 3:2
$150:$125 = 6:5
I think it lines up, but I won't get out of sorts if someone corrects me.
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Looks good to me. But I'm wrong about math.
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I had a typo. 3-1 on the 4 and 10. Yes, I made a typo.
But what about your numbers? Where did you get 2/5 and 5/11 from?
if you flip a fair coin, and win on heads, you have 1 out of 2 chance of winning ... but a fair *payout* is 1 to 1.
So, when a fair payout is 6 to 5 that tells us the probability is based on 11 events, 6+5 you see. Get back to that "6 ways to lose, 5 ways to win" business that all Craps players should hear at some point, and as I recall , you have
the probability, not the odds payout, is 5/11 for winning a free odds bet on the 6 or 8
It helps to avoid sloppy terminology. Don't use the word "odds" to describe probability, as in "the odds are heads will come up half the time", sloppy usage, but you hear that all the time. You can use "chances" there but I don't even like that.
Also, be careful with how you show it. 5/11 is the way you write a fraction, with numerator and denominator. I have frequently seen *gambling writers* use 6/5 which should mean 'six fifths' or 6 divided by 5, but, no, they mean the payout '6 to 5' [that can be written 6:5, never 6/5 .... grrrrr!]
Sloppy stuff like that, seen over the years, has probably helped lead to this ridiculous exchange
Please tell me how you determined the probability of winning is 5/11.
Thanks.
did you read my post? replying to a different post?Quote: AlanMendelsonOkay.
Please tell me how you determined the probability of winning is 5/11.
Thanks.
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5 ways to win. 6 ways to lose. 11 total ways. 5 out of the 11 ways win, can be shown as a fraction, 5/11
Quote: AlanMendelsonOkay.
Please tell me how you determined the probability of winning is 5/11.
Thanks.
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I find it hard to fathom that you don’t know this, given how much you have played craps.
There are 5 ways to make a six and 6 ways to make a seven. So the probability of rolling a six before rolling a seven is 5 / (5+6) = 5/11
I've never heard until now that the probability of winning any point is different than the true odds of that point.
I've only heard, for example, that there are 5 ways to make a six and there are six ways to make a seven so you are at a 6 to 5 disadvantage, or you have odds of 5/6 to make the point.
Never, in any casino, and never before in any discussion have I heard the probability of winning the point of 6 is 5/11.
So, my questions:
1. What rock have I been under?
2. Why when I Google odds of winning or probability i see 5/6 but not 5/11?
3. And if the probability is 5/11 instead of 5/6 should I bet or play differently?
2. Other people apparently are subject to misunderstandings and mistakes, too.
3. Not if you've enjoyed doing it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNow I'm going to ask some sincere questions which will appear to be dumb. They may be dumb but they really are sincere.
I've never heard until now that the probability of winning any point is different than the true odds of that point.
I've only heard, for example, that there are 5 ways to make a six and there are six ways to make a seven so you are at a 6 to 5 disadvantage, or you have odds of 5/6 to make the point.
Never, in any casino, and never before in any discussion have I heard the probability of winning the point of 6 is 5/11.
So, my questions:
1. What rock have I been under?
2. Why when I Google odds of winning or probability i see 5/6 but not 5/11?
3. And if the probability is 5/11 instead of 5/6 should I bet or play differently?
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I won’t directly answer your question, but I’ll show you the math of why getting paid 6:5 odds is “true odds” when the probability of winning is 5/11.
5/11 of the time you win, and gain $6. So “expectation of win” is 6 * 5/11 = 30/11.
6/11 of the time you lose, and you lose $5. So “expectation of loss” is -5 * 6/11 = -30/11
The 30/11 and -30/11 cancel out for an overall “expected value of wager” of $0.
1. What rock have I been under? ........................ maybe you haven't quite realized that the dealers, the other players, what you find on the internet even, just don't use math beyond payout math
2. Why when I Google odds of winning or probability i see 5/6 but not 5/11? ........................ see above
3. And if the probability is 5/11 instead of 5/6 should I bet or play differently?................................. you never acted on a probability of 5/6, since that would mean you win 5 times out of 6 and get paid 6 to 5. You'd never leave the casino if you had ever believed that
I repeat: quit mixing up probability and payout. Not the same thing!
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It is not. One means 5 out of 6. The other means 5 to 6. You can blame sloppy posts and even sloppy gambling writers
I think one of the problems is that many people see two numbers, know division may be a part of it, and misinterpret the numbers as a fraction.
I suggest that fractions are just one way that people can be confused by a ratio*. There are many other ways of expressing, using, and being confused by ratios.
I am politely not indicting the education system nor elementary school math teachers. They've got a hard job and do it pretty well, even if it doesn't turn out a population that is broadly fluent in advanced numerancy**.
Since it comes up a fair bit... is there a common notation for "for 1" instead of "to 1" pays? I know we usually use the colon (:) for "to 1" and similar. (I freely admit that I am lazy and do not care to type out "800-for-1", but I'm also lazy enough to not want to go hunting for indirect unicode characters.)
Please post the link to where it says the probability of winning is 5/6 aka 5 in 6. That's an 83% probability of winning!Quote: AlanMendelson
2. Why when I Google odds of winning or probability i see 5/6 but not 5/11?
Maybe you aren't a math denier after all, just extremely math-challenged
Your 18 consecutive yo's claim starts making sense now. We assume that means 18 yo's in a row (will never happen) but it probably means something completely different to you
I don't think there's an accepted symbol to express "for-1", it's just written like that.Quote: DieterThis has been grinding away in my back-brain for a bit now.
I think one of the problems is that many people see two numbers, know division may be a part of it, and misinterpret the numbers as a fraction.
I suggest that fractions are just one way that people can be confused by a ratio*. There are many other ways of expressing, using, and being confused by ratios.
I am politely not indicting the education system nor elementary school math teachers. They've got a hard job and do it pretty well, even if it doesn't turn out a population that is broadly fluent in advanced numerancy**.
Since it comes up a fair bit... is there a common notation for "for 1" instead of "to 1" pays? I know we usually use the colon (:) for "to 1" and similar. (I freely admit that I am lazy and do not care to type out "800-for-1", but I'm also lazy enough to not want to go hunting for indirect unicode characters.)In any family sitcom, there is likely to be a young student dreading a test on (or otherwise struggling to understand) fractions. This has been a trope for at least 50 years, so it's not exactly a new problem.Do I need to go on a political rant here? No. Do too many people love online banking, because it means they don't have to find a calculator app to balance their checkbook to see how broke they are? Yes.
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In casinos most odds are quoted on a "to-1" basis. Using the colon ":" to express this ratio is common the the USA but they seem to use the "/" symbol in the UK.
Quote: odiousgambit
if you flip a fair coin, and win on heads, you have 1 out of 2 chance of winning ... but a fair *payout* is 1 to 1.
I descent, respectfully. The actual payout on a coin flip is: all or nothing.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2I don't think there's an accepted symbol to express "for-1", it's just written like that.
In casinos most odds are quoted on a "to-1" basis. Using the colon ":" to express this ratio is common the the USA but they seem to use the "/" symbol in the UK.
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One wonders if the 3/2 notation for "3-to-2" could be a contributory factor in some of the misunderstanding.
Bookmaker's fractional odds?
Now the Bubble Craps machine may have been tampered with between sessions because the 5 digit game number that counts up after each roll was reset to 0 while I was gone. Did they download all the data of my rolls once I left? There were near 90,000 rolls on the meter before. I played for near 11 hours (near 900 rolls) trying to end my session ahead, if only $21 ahead, which is also how much free play I have on my Player's Card that was never shown to me on the Player's Club kiosk before today (and I'm not at quite enough points to advance to the 2nd tier of card). Did I mention more than half my session points get discarded by the time I get back to the Player's Club kiosk because they disqualify my odds bets? It's gonna take a lot of points to be able to buy a $20 Smashburger meal, I'll have to bet so much more each day.
I thought maybe they tampered with the bubble dice bumper, but I kept rolling 7-11's on the come-outs and hardways like crazy (another player was betting $20 on hardways and quickly got to $1,000), but I kept rolling 7-outs so all his PB's were wiped out harshly. How should I play a game that won't stop rolling 7's?
If I get back to $300 in a session, I could wander over to the craps table when it's at a $10 minimum and play the Don'ts like the bad shooters they are, but I'll have to switch sides when I shoot because I can't stop throwing 7's!
to ever prove to a manager that you deserve a refund for any losses, eventhough it is extremely unlikely for a random number
generator to produce 45 losses in a row.
When I played 2-deck BJ at the Colorado Belle in Laughlin many years ago and saw their Automatic Shuffler spew over 20 consecutive
10-cards in a row, I learned my lesson then. It's so easy to mildly skew the numbers in a BJ shuffler machine and no one in the short
term is going to play long enough to know it, let alone make a complaint or prove it.
Now if I had one multi-hundred dollar TITO that got stuck the same way, I would have likely gotten the cold shoulder from the tech guy unless I had a 1 cent TITO to follow that up and show him it was jammed.
Quote: ChumpChangeI was putting $20's into the Bubble Craps machine and one got jammed inside the machine. A tech worker was walking by so I flagged him down and told him the machine ate my money. He wasn't inclined to believe me at all, but he mentioned that if I tried to put in another $20 bill and it got stuck, he'd open up the machine. It wouldn't go in, so the tech opened up the machine and found my $20 bill stuck inside and he pulled it out then shut the machine. He left before I put any more bills in to see if they still get stuck. Luckily the bills were accepted.
Now if I had one multi-hundred dollar TITO that got stuck the same way, I would have likely gotten the cold shoulder from the tech guy unless I had a 1 cent TITO to follow that up and show him it was jammed.
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That was just poor service all around-I hope you didn’t tip!
I was making a chart yesterday that was based on the 5% vig being taken out of the wager amount, so I was expecting a payout of $11.70 with a 30 cent vig on $6. But confronted with an extra 30 cent loss I read the Help screen and it said there's a 5% vig taken out of the winnings.
So in normal table terms: for a Buy 4/10, a $20 bet pays $38 profit instead of $39 on a vig on a win table or $36 with just a Place Bet. And for a Buy 5/9, a $20 bet pays $28.50 profit instead of $29 on a vig on a win table or $28 with just the Place Bet.
I've been rolling so many hardways in a row or so many 4's or 10's in one turn it's really time I try to win a few of those streaks and pop a winning session here or there. I've got a new progression that should take me to $500 if I hit nine 4's or 10's in a turn. The only downside is being $3 short after the first win because I semi-pressed, and being 30 cents short on a 2nd win compared to not pressing at all. After that my wins will be ahead of flat betting the $6 for that shooter. By the time I hit 5 wins I'll be over $110 to the good, which is more than double what flat betting would pay (single numbers only).
My local tables are vig upfront. So if I was going to bet $15 PL with $15 odds, I could instead bet $31 on the 4 or 10 and get paid $60. Then my next bet would be $45 + $2 vig and that would pay $90. So I'm down $17 for semi-pressing my bet instead of down $15 compared to flat betting after one win on the machine. I'm down $4 after the 2nd hit instead of $1.50 on the machine after pressing to double my original bet. But when I get to 9 hits, my total would be $2,654 for the table with the $420 max bet including vig, and $2,592.50 for the machine with the $400 max bet on one number.
I've been rolling 2 and 3 hardways of the same number uninterrupted by Easy's or 7-outs lately too. Heck I even rolled 4 hardways in a row, but they were different and one was craps 2. I don't plan on these things happening. The foam dice are a bit lopsided and rolley so there's not quite a way to make it happen. The shaking apparatus has gone onto extended micro-shaking so that extends the rolling of the dice.
