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ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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May 10th, 2022 at 7:19:04 PM permalink
I'll try to progress from 1X odds up to 3X odds. That HA looks harsh at 1X odds.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 8:16:02 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I'll try to progress from 1X odds up to 3X odds. That HA looks harsh at 1X odds.
link to original post

Even taking 1x you reduce the edge from 1.41% to 0.85%, which beats every other game in the casino except 3:2 blackjack with proper basic strategy
Itís all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 11th, 2022 at 4:48:50 AM permalink
_____________


how about this variation of the three point Molly - so that on your Come bets if a 7 is rolled they don't just reduce the loss but will get you a profit


example__________bet $25 pass line - the point is 6 - don't take odds - bet $50 on Come - the point is 4 - don't take odds - Bet $100 on Come - the point is 5

now take your odds - if you roll a 7 on the 2 come bets you still have a profit


of course, I'm not trying to say that this is a winning system

just an interesting - to me anyway - strategy


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 11th, 2022 at 5:00:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


how about this variation of the three point Molly - so that on your Come bets if a 7 is rolled they don't just reduce the loss but will get you a profit


example__________bet $25 pass line - the point is 6 - don't take odds - bet $50 on Come - the point is 4 - don't take odds - Bet $100 on Come - the point is 5

now take your odds - if you roll a 7 on the 2 come bets you still have a profit


of course, I'm not trying to say that this is a winning system

just an interesting - to me anyway - strategy


.
link to original post



I have some questions.

Are you rolling the 7 after the three come bets are made? If so, you are losing $175 plus the odds.

If you are rolling the 7 on the next come out roll when your odds are "off" you are losing the flat bets of $175.

What are you betting when the 7 rolls that gives you a win? Is it the next step in a Martingale progression?
Joeman
Joeman
Joined: Feb 21, 2014
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May 11th, 2022 at 5:00:19 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

No such thing as a short handed shooter.




"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 11th, 2022 at 5:24:38 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


how about this variation of the three point Molly - so that on your Come bets if a 7 is rolled they don't just reduce the loss but will get you a profit


example__________bet $25 pass line - the point is 6 - don't take odds - bet $50 on Come - the point is 4 - don't take odds - Bet $100 on Come - the point is 5

now take your odds - if you roll a 7 on the 2 come bets you still have a profit


of course, I'm not trying to say that this is a winning system

just an interesting - to me anyway - strategy


.
link to original post



I have some questions.

Are you rolling the 7 after the three come bets are made? If so, you are losing $175 plus the odds.

If you are rolling the 7 on the next come out roll when your odds are "off" you are losing the flat bets of $175.

What are you betting when the 7 rolls that gives you a win? Is it the next step in a Martingale progression?
link to original post




okay, good questions

first - it's not a martingale - because you're betting $50 on Come after one point is established and $100 on Come after 2 points are established

in a martingale the player makes a bigger bet after a loss - there is no loss here

of course, you will sometimes lose $175 - nobody can design a system where you never lose - you also can win $175 if you make your 3 points - unlikely I guess

if the 7 gives you a win during the 2 Come bets you have a profit and go back to betting $25 on pass

so no, it's not a martingale, not at all - although the bets increase up to a point

also if you make your $100 point first you now have $75 on the table - so you bet $100 on Come again if you haven't taken odds - or you can take your odds down for the come out roll - if you want to - or you can just settle for what profit you already have and hope you get more - whatever


also, for some it might be a lot of money on the table - so they could decline to take odds - you trade that for losing a small % re the House Advantage


what's your opinion_____?????___________yay or nay


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 11, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
unJonDieter
May 11th, 2022 at 8:00:39 AM permalink
Anything I'll say you'll disagree with. But here goes:

1. You're betting more into a negative expectation game.

2. You're betting more on a bet with a house edge rather than putting the money towards odds with no house edge.

OMG I'm talking about math.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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May 11th, 2022 at 8:34:42 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Another words, hypotheses PROVE IT. PERFORM IT.



Quote: Ace2

I don't think your math adds up since the expected loss on $1,000,000 would be $14,100, but I can tell you that if you made 1,000,000 passline bets there is a 95% chance your result will be within -1.21% and -1.61%. Your chance of being up on the casino after a million PL bets is effectively zero since that would be about 14 standard deviations above expectations...roughly the same chance as your house being struck by a meteor every night this week.



Your assumption above is educational speculation and guessing. Another words, hypotheses PROVE IT. PERFORM IT. I know you will continue to rail on the hypothetical and outlandish parallels and show your highly advanced math acumen, but until it is PERFORMED, they remain unproven hypotheses.

Did Markov ever gamble, i.e., craps?

Sorry about the arithmetic. I wrongly placed the decimal in my calculation.

Quote: Ace2

Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence. And usually only done when something is impossible or too difficult to calculate directly.



This post among the thousands of math posts on this forum is the most accurate and revealing fact that shows the speculation associated with the hypotheses often produced to validate all forms of HA/HE as well as the expectation of results surrounding all forms of wagers.

tuttigym
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 11th, 2022 at 8:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Anything I'll say you'll disagree with. But here goes:

1. You're betting more into a negative expectation game.

2. You're betting more on a bet with a house edge rather than putting the money towards odds with no house edge.

OMG I'm talking about math.
link to original post




no, I don't disagree - your points are valid

my thing is - no matter what you do it's a negative expectation game - you can't get around that - also the thing is - when you take free odds - yes, there is no HA - but you didn't gain anything - your long term expectation on the free odds bet is zero - you increased your risk

but still, your point is valid - overall the HA is less when you take free odds

so, maybe some wouldn't mind sacrificing a tiny % if they enjoy playing this way

also, in the original 3 point Molly, if you look at it that way, why make any Come bets at all where the HA is greater than the free odds bet____________?

why not just take 5 time odds or 10 times odds on the first point if they let you and make no Come bets______________?????

in other words, if you look at it strictly from a % point of view it's better not to do a 3 point Molly at all

I don't actually know what times odds the different casinos will let you take now


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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May 11th, 2022 at 9:07:37 AM permalink
Speaking for myself, I make coke bets only because I have placed max odds on the pass line. I would never choose to make a come bet if I didnít already have max odds.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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