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billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:48:52 PM permalink
The math says you will roll snake eyes once every 36 rolls. If you witness someone roll three snake eyes in a row, does that mean the math is wrong?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:54:29 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I have been accused of being a math denier only for saying what I've seen. And not because I ever challenged any math.


link to original post




no Alan, you are distorting what you stated when you wrongly called Ace2's post incorrect - here is exactly what you stated:


"You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else.

1 in 190?? Too far out."



that is from your post of today at 12:37 a.m.



.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:00:31 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The math says you will roll snake eyes once every 36 rolls. If you witness someone roll three snake eyes in a row, does that mean the math is wrong?
link to original post

Nope. And you will see three consecutive snake-eyes if you play enough.
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:05:47 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson



I have been accused of being a math denier only for saying what I've seen. And not because I ever challenged any math.


link to original post




no Alan, you are distorting what you stated when you wrongly called Ace2's post incorrect - here is exactly what you stated:


"You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else.

1 in 190?? Too far out."



that is from your post of today at 12:37 a.m.



.
link to original post



I was wrong about this statistic. Repeat: I was wrong about this statistic.

But I do not deny the math. If that's the statistic than that is the statistic.

But it's not my exoerience.

You too: get off my case with your nickeling and diming everything I say. It's old.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:13:14 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I was wrong about this statistic. Repeat: I was wrong about this statistic.

But I do not deny the math. If that's the statistic than that is the statistic.

But it's not my exoerience.

You too: get off my case with your nickeling and diming everything I say. It's old.
link to original post

Your implication still being that "it's just a statistic"

I'll repeat: Go to a casino only once in your life and your expectation really is just a statistic. But for regular players, which most of us are, your long-term results will end up being quite close to expectations.
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:18:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: AlanMendelson



I was wrong about this statistic. Repeat: I was wrong about this statistic.

But I do not deny the math. If that's the statistic than that is the statistic.

But it's not my exoerience.

You too: get off my case with your nickeling and diming everything I say. It's old.
link to original post

Your implication still being that "it's just a statistic"

I'll repeat: Go to a casino only once in your life and your expectation really is just a statistic. But for regular players, which most of us are, your long-term results will end up being quite close to expectations.
link to original post



Are you serious? This has gone beyond nickeling and dime-ing to trolling.

Stop.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:48:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: billryan

The math says you will roll snake eyes once every 36 rolls. If you witness someone roll three snake eyes in a row, does that mean the math is wrong?
link to original post

Nope. And you will see three consecutive snake-eyes if you play enough.
link to original post



I saw four in a row in a Monopoly game. Three by one player and the first roll by the next guy.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:18:16 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
link to original post

Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence. And usually only done when something is impossible or too difficult to calculate directly.

But you will notice your results approaching statistical expectations with far fewer trials...in the low thousands. Many of us play several thousand hands in one year.

You and Mr. AlanM should hit the craps table together sometime since you share a similar belief system a.k.a Math Doesn't Apply to Me
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:25:15 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
link to original post

Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence.

But you will notice your results approaching statistical expectations with far fewer trials...in the low thousands. Many of us play several thousand hands in one year.

You and Mr. AlanM should hit the craps table together sometime since you share a similar belief system
link to original post



So have you lost EXACTLY 1.4% of your passline bets? I think that's the point being made. No one really makes or reaches the mathematical expectations.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN ANYONE DENIES THE MATH.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:42:41 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
link to original post

Simulations are taken into the billions to provide a very high level of precision and confidence.

But you will notice your results approaching statistical expectations with far fewer trials...in the low thousands. Many of us play several thousand hands in one year.

You and Mr. AlanM should hit the craps table together sometime since you share a similar belief system
link to original post



So have you lost EXACTLY 1.4% of your passline bets? I think that's the point being made. No one really makes or reaches the mathematical expectations.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN ANYONE DENIES THE MATH.
link to original post




What is the difference between denying the math and claiming it is irrelevant?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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