Might be overthinking this a tad!Quote:Wizard

Should one hyphenate Three-Point?

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This reply is quintessential AlanM. He is a math denier and his gaming statements are mostly based on feelings and anecdotes.Quote:AlanMendelsonQuote:Ace2It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit

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Sorry. But I hit it more often. And as I said, Bellagio got killed by a group of better shooters.

Edited to add:

You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else. I've been at tables at Red Rock and Sam's Town where two or more shooters have thrown the ALL in less than an hour.

I think I see it thrown once in every two trips.

I've seen players hit the ALL without making a single pass.

1 in 190?? Too far out.

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But, not unlike MDawg and tuttigym, his posts do carry entertainment value sometimes

Quote:lilredrooster_____________

I want to see you (Alan Mendelson) post that the Wizard's link stating that the House Advantage on the bet is 20.61% is wrong too

I'm waiting

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2C%20some%20tables,a%20house%20edge%20of%2020.61%25.

do you really believe that if we went and watched craps and the bet hit after 45 rolls that that would prove you are right___________?????

is your lack of knowledge about probability really so large____________?????

.

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Why would I challenge it?

I also don't challenge that the house edge is 1.4% on the passline, yet there are players who have better or worse results.

I'd like to count how many times the ALL is thrown and I'm inviting someone from the forum to join me and then have lunch.

Geeze. Tough crowd here.

Quote:Ace2It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM

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If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?

I only meant that if you are playing a 3PM then you are always playing it. You will always have between zero and three numbers covered but the method is always to keep adding bets until you have three.Quote:WizardQuote:Ace2It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM

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If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?

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Quote:Ace2But, not unlike MDawg and tuttigym, his posts do carry entertainment value sometimes

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"SOMETIMES"? I resemble that. MDawg? hardly. No grandiose claims here, just 4th grade arithmetic.

tuttigym

Quote:WizardQuote:Ace2It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM

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If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?

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After 32 billion sessions, just drop dead.

tuttigym

Quote:WizardI ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470

Probability net win = 0.304783

Average win per session = -0.086295

Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)

Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970 Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000 Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265 Total 1.000000 -0.086295

The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.

Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?

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I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym

Quote:Ace2I only meant that if you are playing a 3PM then you are always playing it. You will always have between zero and three numbers covered but the method is always to keep adding bets until you have three.

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Thanks. Was there something I wrote that made you feel I had a different understanding of how to the 3PM?

In other news, here is the net number of points the player can expect to win. This only counts fully winning, including the odds. Winning a come bet with the odds turned off on a come-out roll does not count.

Net Points Won | Probability |
---|---|

-3 | 0.114039 |

-2 | 0.236719 |

-1 | 0.356293 |

0 | 0.113150 |

1 | 0.066998 |

2 | 0.041946 |

3 | 0.026353 |

4 | 0.016556 |

5 | 0.010399 |

6 | 0.006530 |

7 | 0.004101 |

8 | 0.002574 |

9 | 0.001616 |

10 | 0.001015 |

11 | 0.000637 |

12 | 0.000400 |

13 | 0.000251 |

14 | 0.000158 |

15 | 0.000099 |

16 | 0.000062 |

17 | 0.000039 |

18 | 0.000024 |

19 | 0.000015 |

20 | 0.000010 |

21 | 0.000006 |

22 | 0.000004 |

23 | 0.000002 |

24 | 0.000002 |

25+ | 0.000003 |

Total | 1.000000 |

I have calculated the expected result of a 3PM using a single passline bet as a reference point. Relative to single PL bet, continuously playing a 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 (easy to calculate) and your standard deviation by a factor of 1.91 (obtained via simulation). You might assume that the SD would increase by 2.4^.5 =~ 1.55, but it goes up more since the 3PM bets are correlated, especially when a seven-out happens with multiple numbers covered.Quote:WizardI ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470

Probability net win = 0.304783

Average win per session = -0.086295

Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)

Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970 Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000 Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265 Total 1.000000 -0.086295

The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.

Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?

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For example, let's say you play a single PL bet with 3/4/5 odds for three hours and expect 100 bets resolved in that period. Your expectation is 100 * -.0141 +/- 100^.5 * 4.92 = -1.41 units +/- 49.2. With a flat bet of $100 that's -$141 +/- $4,920. If instead you play a 3PM over that same period using the same flat bet amount, your expectation is -$141* 2.4 +/- $4,920 * 1.91 = -$338 +/- $9,397. If a single $100 flat bet with 3/4/5 odds is your comfort level, then you would probably reduce your flat bet to $50 for a 3PM since that would give you a similar expectation of -$169 +/- $4,699