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Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 10:00:56 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Should one hyphenate Three-Point?
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Might be overthinking this a tad!
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 10:09:09 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit
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Sorry. But I hit it more often. And as I said, Bellagio got killed by a group of better shooters.

Edited to add:

You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else. I've been at tables at Red Rock and Sam's Town where two or more shooters have thrown the ALL in less than an hour.

I think I see it thrown once in every two trips.

I've seen players hit the ALL without making a single pass.

1 in 190?? Too far out.
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This reply is quintessential AlanM. He is a math denier and his gaming statements are mostly based on feelings and anecdotes.

But, not unlike MDawg and tuttigym, his posts do carry entertainment value sometimes
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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May 10th, 2022 at 10:16:49 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I want to see you (Alan Mendelson) post that the Wizard's link stating that the House Advantage on the bet is 20.61% is wrong too

I'm waiting


https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2C%20some%20tables,a%20house%20edge%20of%2020.61%25.



do you really believe that if we went and watched craps and the bet hit after 45 rolls that that would prove you are right___________?????

is your lack of knowledge about probability really so large____________?????


.
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Why would I challenge it?

I also don't challenge that the house edge is 1.4% on the passline, yet there are players who have better or worse results.

I'd like to count how many times the ALL is thrown and I'm inviting someone from the forum to join me and then have lunch.

Geeze. Tough crowd here.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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May 10th, 2022 at 10:17:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM
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If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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May 10th, 2022 at 10:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Ace2

It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM
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If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?
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I only meant that if you are playing a 3PM then you are always playing it. You will always have between zero and three numbers covered but the method is always to keep adding bets until you have three.
Itís all about making that GTA
tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:12:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

But, not unlike MDawg and tuttigym, his posts do carry entertainment value sometimes
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"SOMETIMES"? I resemble that. MDawg? hardly. No grandiose claims here, just 4th grade arithmetic.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:13:49 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Ace2

It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM
link to original post



If you never quit or restart, what are you supposed to do when the shooter sevens-out?
link to original post


After 32 billion sessions, just drop dead.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 10th, 2022 at 11:26:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470
Probability net win = 0.304783
Average win per session = -0.086295
Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)
Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return
Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970
Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000
Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265
Total 1.000000 -0.086295


The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.


Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?
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I believe that 32 billion sessions are unlikely to be performed or happen in one's lifetime to actually validate those results. Otherworldly numbers produced by computer SIMULATIONS (emphasis) are...............

tuttigym
Wizard
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Wizard 
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
May 10th, 2022 at 11:32:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I only meant that if you are playing a 3PM then you are always playing it. You will always have between zero and three numbers covered but the method is always to keep adding bets until you have three.
link to original post



Thanks. Was there something I wrote that made you feel I had a different understanding of how to the 3PM?

In other news, here is the net number of points the player can expect to win. This only counts fully winning, including the odds. Winning a come bet with the odds turned off on a come-out roll does not count.

Net Points Won Probability
-3 0.114039
-2 0.236719
-1 0.356293
0 0.113150
1 0.066998
2 0.041946
3 0.026353
4 0.016556
5 0.010399
6 0.006530
7 0.004101
8 0.002574
9 0.001616
10 0.001015
11 0.000637
12 0.000400
13 0.000251
14 0.000158
15 0.000099
16 0.000062
17 0.000039
18 0.000024
19 0.000015
20 0.000010
21 0.000006
22 0.000004
23 0.000002
24 0.000002
25+ 0.000003
Total 1.000000
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
May 10th, 2022 at 11:37:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470
Probability net win = 0.304783
Average win per session = -0.086295
Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)
Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return
Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970
Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000
Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265
Total 1.000000 -0.086295


The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.


Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?
link to original post

I have calculated the expected result of a 3PM using a single passline bet as a reference point. Relative to single PL bet, continuously playing a 3PM increases your total bets made by a factor of 2.4 (easy to calculate) and your standard deviation by a factor of 1.91 (obtained via simulation). You might assume that the SD would increase by 2.4^.5 =~ 1.55, but it goes up more since the 3PM bets are correlated, especially when a seven-out happens with multiple numbers covered.

For example, let's say you play a single PL bet with 3/4/5 odds for three hours and expect 100 bets resolved in that period. Your expectation is 100 * -.0141 +/- 100^.5 * 4.92 = -1.41 units +/- 49.2. With a flat bet of $100 that's -$141 +/- $4,920. If instead you play a 3PM over that same period using the same flat bet amount, your expectation is -$141* 2.4 +/- $4,920 * 1.91 = -$338 +/- $9,397. If a single $100 flat bet with 3/4/5 odds is your comfort level, then you would probably reduce your flat bet to $50 for a 3PM since that would give you a similar expectation of -$169 +/- $4,699
Itís all about making that GTA

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