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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 2:44:16 AM permalink
Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2022 at 2:53:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
link to original post




I'll tell you what

once again you bumble up a wrong explanation based on personal observations and anecdotes

anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:01:26 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell you what...

Meet me at Red Rock. Be prepared to hang out at the craps tables for four hours, and let's see how often the ALL gets hit.

Okay?

Then I'll buy lunch and we'll tally up the number of shooters.

1 in 190?? No way.
link to original post




I'll tell you what

once again you bumble up a wrong explanation based on personal observations and anecdotes

anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you


.
link to original post



I'm asking you to meet me and see for yourself. I'm even willing to buy lunch. No money involved. No risk. And no need to be nasty about it.

Okay... you dont want to do it.

Anyone else interested in watching four hours of craps to keep score on the number of shooters and how often the ALL is hit?

Lunch included.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:08:46 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



And no need to be nasty about it.

link to original post




wasn't being nasty - was being truthful - you know the old saying - "the truth hurts"


consistently post erroneous info and you will get straightened out - every time


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 150
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:15:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AlanMendelson



And no need to be nasty about it.

link to original post




wasn't being nasty - was being truthful - you know the old saying - "the truth hurts"


consistently post erroneous info and you will get straightened out - every time


.
link to original post



What erroneous info?

All I want to do is see if the ALL is hit in fewer than 190 shooters. I'm willing to buy lunch if anyone else wants to come along and count.

That's erroneous?

You are nasty. You're picking a fight and I'm just interested in counting.

I figure Red Rock usually has three open tables on Saturday... six players per table. Four hours should be more than enough time to see 190 turns.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:28:33 AM permalink
_____________


I want to see you (Alan Mendelson) post that the Wizard's link stating that the House Advantage on the bet is 20.61% is wrong too

I'm waiting


https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2C%20some%20tables,a%20house%20edge%20of%2020.61%25.



do you really believe that if we went and watched craps and the bet hit after 45 rolls that that would prove you are right___________?????

is your lack of knowledge about probability really so large____________?????


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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May 10th, 2022 at 3:45:16 AM permalink
I'm running a simulation of the Three Point Molly. However, I'm not 100% sure I understand it correctly. Could it be said the player makes a pass or come bet every roll until he covers three numbers? If so, here are some questions on the fine points:

1. Does the player always back up his numbers will full odds? Various web sites contradict each other on how much odds to take.
2. Are the odds on come bets kept off on a come out roll?
3. Does the player quit (or restart) when the shooter 7-outs only?

Anything else I might be missing?

I've actually played this many times, but didn't know there was a name for it. Also have played the opposite version on the dark side.

Thank you!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wiggins
Wiggins
Joined: Mar 26, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
camapl
May 10th, 2022 at 8:42:58 AM permalink
Quote:


anyone reading and believing your posts risks having a terrible experience on the gambling floor due to all the misinformation that pours out of you



This is very true. As a semi-lurker it took me a long time to figure out that his posts are mostly baloney. His use of his real name and his ability to write coherently make him seem credible. Alan, your Red Rock offer is laughable. Have you ever heard of the term "sample size?"
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
pwcrabbChumpChange
May 10th, 2022 at 9:25:38 AM permalink
I ran a simulation of over 32 billion session using the Three-Point Molly. I assume 3-4-5x odds and the player turns off the odds on come bets on a come out roll. Here are some results:

Average rolls per session = 8.525470
Probability net win = 0.304783
Average win per session = -0.086295
Ratio money won to money bet = -0.004048 (If this seems high, it's because the player turns off the come bet odds on a come out roll)
Average units bet per session = 21.318409

In the 32,342,500,000 sessions simulated, the largest loss was 28 units and the largest win was 345 units.

Here is my usual return table, clumping just wins, ties, and losses.

Event Probability Average Win Return
Win 0.304783 15.880052 4.839970
Break even 0.021929 0.000000 0.000000
Loss 0.673288 -7.316730 -4.926265
Total 1.000000 -0.086295


The following table shows the probability of wins from -25 to 100.


Any questions or comments? Does anyone claim I don't correctly understand how to play the Three-Point Molly? Should one hyphenate Three-Point?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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May 10th, 2022 at 9:58:10 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm running a simulation of the Three Point Molly. However, I'm not 100% sure I understand it correctly. Could it be said the player makes a pass or come bet every roll until he covers three numbers? If so, here are some questions on the fine points:

1. Does the player always back up his numbers will full odds? Various web sites contradict each other on how much odds to take.
2. Are the odds on come bets kept off on a come out roll?
3. Does the player quit (or restart) when the shooter 7-outs only?

Anything else I might be missing?

I've actually played this many times, but didn't know there was a name for it. Also have played the opposite version on the dark side.

Thank you!
link to original post

Not sure there's an official definition, but I believe a 3PM means you always make come bets until you have three total numbers covered. It's continuous...you don't ever quit/restart. Odds and keeping them on is always your option whether or not you play 3PM
Itís all about making that GTA

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