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Dieter
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Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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March 31st, 2022 at 9:35:41 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Deleted. Error with quote.
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Not your fault. I was going to retouch yours next.
May the cards fall in your favor.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 1st, 2022 at 3:01:09 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AlanMendelson

We both have seen long rolls by random rollers.

Perhaps one day you'll see a dice influencer.
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I've seen players who have faith in such powers belonging to another player, and they follow them around. I've seen it work. Let me qualify that by citing the fact that there were too few rolls in the couple of hours I was playing with this guy, so statistically what I saw proved nothing, though I took the advice to bet on him and benefited.

Alan, if you can spot 'em, well, how is that going?
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I have played with only THREE who I believe who are truly skilled. A fourth was close, but not convincibg.

That's 3 out of possibly several thousand shooters in the past 40 years.
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This time I was talking about, was not the only time I saw a shooter do remarkably well while setting the dice. But what struck me was that he seemed to have followers. There was no doubt about one guy in particular, who took it upon himself to urge the rest of us not to do something to distract that shooter, he would be on it if he thought your hands might get in the way for example. 

Now I walked out of that casino with several hundred dollars I didn't come in with, and would have walked out with thousands if a little niggling voice wasn't telling me not to get carried away. If he had convinced me his results were like that all the time, so I could say "I believe he was truly skilled", I'd have to decide it was worth it to find out if he played regularly. It might just be time to start walking out with thousands instead of hundreds. 

So I'm asking if you ever tried to do this, find out when one of these three guys is playing and bet with them? If not why not?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
daveyandersen1
daveyandersen1
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May 9th, 2022 at 1:23:21 PM permalink
the guy telling everyone to watch their hands and such was probably a guy who saw dopes betting late and stuff like that alot IT HAPPENS I do the same thing when someone is control shooting..Im not shy to tell people to wait for the next hand either,,, On another note... HAS ANYONE NOTICED THAT SOME( CASINOS ON THE STRIP} HAVE ELIMINATED THE ALL TALL SMALL ?????
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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May 9th, 2022 at 2:24:17 PM permalink
I'm pulling ahead when 3 Hot Shooters (20+ rolls per shooter) do their thing in the first hour.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 9th, 2022 at 2:46:07 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

On another note... HAS ANYONE NOTICED THAT SOME( CASINOS ON THE STRIP} HAVE ELIMINATED THE ALL TALL SMALL ?????
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interesting.. wonder why they removed this sucker bet?
did they replace it with a bigger/worst sucker bet?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 9th, 2022 at 2:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

On another note... HAS ANYONE NOTICED THAT SOME( CASINOS ON THE STRIP} HAVE ELIMINATED THE ALL TALL SMALL ?????
link to original post

interesting.. wonder why they removed this sucker bet?
did they replace it with a bigger/worst sucker bet?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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May 9th, 2022 at 7:56:19 PM permalink
Bonus craps is a sucker bet unless you're hitting it.

When the pays were first reduced at Bellagio several years ago it was because Bellagio was getting hammered on the Bonus bets. There were regulars there betting $100 on all three positions.

Caesars followed Bellagio.
Ace2
Ace2 
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May 9th, 2022 at 8:44:01 PM permalink
It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
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May 10th, 2022 at 12:37:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit
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Sorry. But I hit it more often. And as I said, Bellagio got killed by a group of better shooters.

Edited to add:

You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else. I've been at tables at Red Rock and Sam's Town where two or more shooters have thrown the ALL in less than an hour.

I think I see it thrown once in every two trips.

I've seen players hit the ALL without making a single pass.

1 in 190?? Too far out.
Last edited by: AlanMendelson on May 10, 2022
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2022 at 1:47:15 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

It's a sucker bet period. You will, on average, hit it about 1 in 190 times and get paid 150 to 1 when you hit
link to original post



Sorry. But I hit it more often. And as I said, Bellagio got killed by a group of better shooters.

Edited to add:

You must have this statistic of 1 in 190 confused with something else. I've been at tables at Red Rock and Sam's Town where two or more shooters have thrown the ALL in less than an hour.

I think I see it thrown once in every two trips.

I've seen players hit the ALL without making a single pass.

1 in 190?? Too far out.
link to original post





well Alan, the thing about your analysis is that Mike has already analyzed this bet - see link - and stated that it carries a house edge of 20.61%__________

and guess what, if you bet $1.00 190 times and won one time and got paid $150 and divide your loss -40 - by 190 you get guess what - almost the exactly same as what Mike stated - 21%

imagine that - Alan Mendelson craps expert could be wrong and Ace 2 could be right

once again you post wrong info re betting strategies

but of course, you can always claim that Mike too is wrong - and you can prove it with your analysis___________________(~:\

everybody is going to anxiously wait to see your post showing the correct math______________(~:\



https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/side-bets/bonus-craps/#:~:text=In%20the%20past%2C%20some%20tables,a%20house%20edge%20of%2020.61%25.



it's almost a law in casino table games that the higher the payout in proportion to the amount bet - the higher the HA



a person trying to get a big payout would get a much better deal to try to parlay a pass line bet of $1.00 7 times to get a payout of $127 or 8 times to get a payout of $255


yes, I know in most casinos you can't bet just $1.00 - this was just an example


.







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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2022
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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