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Ace2
Ace2
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:31:35 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Substitute " luck" for variance and a true picture emerges. If one gets lucky, having more money on the board will give you better results than having less. Sounds like a great game plan.
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For any game and session length you can easily calculate your expectation and standard deviation and also measure your chance of being up on the casino. This is what makes statistics so great: you can quantify "luck"

For 12 hours of passline play with 3/4/5 odds, my expectation, using the flat bet amount as a reference, is about -5 units +/- 93. This gives me about a 48% percent chance of beating the casino over a weekend. So close to break even you can't even tell the difference...I basically win every other trip (48 of 100), though there will be plenty of good and bad streaks

If you flat bet $25 then your average total bet will be close to $100 with odds. Though there will be a ton of (fun) variance, the average cost is only 5 * $25 = $125 and the average deviation from that figure will be (2/π)^.5 * 93 * $25 = $1,855. Where else can you get a weekend of entertainment for $125, unlimited drinks included? And plenty of hookers to chat with lol

For a 3 point molly, multiply the average loss by 2.4 and the SD by 1.9. I usually play 3PM or I'll do a single passline bet, but for two or three times the amount. 3PM is fun because it more that doubles the bet resolution rate, but it can also be fun to put more money on a single bet that is resolved less frequently.

Try a "seven point molly" aka "always coming" if you really want to speed up the game. I've only done this at lower limit tables...it's a lot of money out there when six points are covered, plus come. But if you happen to get a good long roll, it's like you're winning on every roll
Itís all about making that GTA
unJon
unJon 
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:31:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In that situation, the player would only get comp consideration on 60% of his action, correct? You don't earn comps on odds bets, do you?
In this particular case, wouldn't the player betting $25 on the pass line qualify for a hypothetical steak dinner long before the $15 backed by $10 guy?
I'd have to delve deep to see if giving up 40% of your comps is a good move or not. It obviously would change from casino to casino.
Walking away from the table with a few more dollars may or may not be better than losing more but getting better comps.
Will a $100 pass line player get treated better than a $25 backed by $75 one? Is the difference worth discussing?
In the end, you won't beat the dice, but you can beat the marketing department.
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It is a good point. Based on only my own play and my discussions with pit bosses, I know I am generally getting comp credit for my odds bets at MGM strip casinos.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:44:23 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


It is a good point. Based on only my own play and my discussions with pit bosses, I know I am generally getting comp credit for my odds bets at MGM strip casinos.
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There is lots of debate on whether some casinos do or don't comp odds bets. Technically they shouldn't, because the idea of comps is they are refunding you a portion of your theoretical loss. But, from what I've read, that's not always the case. Even casinos that have a policy of not comping free odds bet might do so, at least to a degree. For instance, I've read you buy-in amount can be a significant factor for comps, and when you buy in they don't know you're going to put 75% of your action on free odds.

Unjon, can you quantify how much credit you get? My understanding is that casinos rebate about 30% of your theo loss, but what theo loss % do they use for a passline bet with max odds?
Itís all about making that GTA
TDVegas
TDVegas
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:46:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Try a "seven point molly" aka "always coming" if you really want to speed up the game. I've only done this at lower limit tables...it's a lot of money out there when six points are covered, plus come. But if you happen to get a good long roll, it's like you're winning on every roll


Iíve done it in low limit bubble craps. It can be fun if you get a long roll going. Constant action.
Ace2
Ace2
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March 27th, 2022 at 10:55:52 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


One more item though. If you see someone at a $15 table betting a $25 pass line with no odds, tell them to bet $15 pass line with $10 odds instead!
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Agree with concept, but I think there might be a 1X minimum for odds. So $15 plus $15 odds. Better yet, go to $5 table and play 3/4/5 odds. I assume they still exist downtown
Itís all about making that GTA
pwcrabb
pwcrabb 
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:05:01 AM permalink
Molly is mathematically solid. House Edge is negligible.

Molly is simple. Novices can keep up with the movements of three Flat Bets and three Odds Bets.

Molly is scalable. Exposure and Variance can be increased or decreased simply by increasing or decreasing only the Odds Bets.

Molly is flexible. Bright Side Molly and Dark Side Molly are nearly mirror opposites.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
Ace2
Ace2
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:18:43 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If you make $20 buy bets on the 5, you'll get paid $29 if it's vig on a win, $28 if it's just vig which you would get with a place bet anyway.
If you win 300 buy bets, you would have won $8700. If you won 300 place bets, you would have won $8400. If you had won 300 odds bets on the 5, you would have won $9,000. So from $9000, you would be down 15 x $20 bets on the buy bets, and 30 x $20 bets down on the place bets. If you were betting $6,000 (300 bets x $20) on the pass line too (with single odds), you'd be down 1.41% of that which is $84.60. So you'll save $515.40 if you bet odds on the 5 instead of place betting in this scenario, and it would be a lot less built-in loss to overcome with your good luck streaks.

If I want to expand this out to the 4, 10, $20 buy bets with vig on a win pay $39, and $20 place bets pay $36. 300 x $39 = $11,700 and 300 x $36 = $10,800 and 300 x $40 (odds payback) = $12,000. So you'll be down 15 x $20 bets for vig on a win but down 60 x $20 bets for the place bet.

If I want to expand this out to the 6, 8, nobody buys bets on the 6, 8 (but they could on bubble craps, but I won't), but since a $20 bet pays $23.33 on bubble craps as a place bet (7/6), 300 x $23.33 = $7,000. If it was odds that would pay $24, so 300 x $24 = $7,200. You'd be down 10 x $20 bets for making place bets instead of odds bets, and the HE on the $20 PL is still less than half of that $200 difference.

If I have 300 PL with single odds bets on the 4/10, another 300 PL with single odds bets on the 5/9, and another 300 PL bets with single odds on the 6/8, I'll have bet $18K on the PL & $18K on the Odds. My expected loss on the PL would be $253.80, multiply that by 30% for comps and there's $76.14 in comps, more like $30 on the bubble craps at 1 cent per $6, or $60 if the machine counted odds bets too.
If I wanted to play place bets for all those numbers (because I don't believe in vigs), I'd be down $1200 (on the 4/10) + $600 (on the 5/9) + $200 (on the 6/8) for a total of $2,000.
If I was doing buy bets on the 4,5,9,10 (like on bubble craps) I'd be down $300 (on the 4/10) + $300 (on the 5/9) + $200 (on the 6/8) for a total of $800.
If I was just doing buy bets on the 4, 10 (like at a table), I'd be down $300 (on the 4/10) + $600 (on the 5/9) + $200 (on the 6/8) for a total of $1,100.
Again, putting all your place bets onto the odds side erases ridiculous amounts of house edge.
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Dang that's a lot of arithmetic!

If you expect to win 300 bets buying the 5, that means you made 300 / .4 = 750 bets.

-If you make 750 buy5 bets for $21, your expected loss is 750 * $1 = $750. Commission on win and loss

-If you make 750 place5 bets for $21, your expected loss is 750 * $21 * .04 = $630. Assume no rounding

-If you make 750 passline bets for $21, your expected loss is 750 * $21 * .0141 = $223. Irrespective of free odds bet

-If you make 750 passline bets for $5 and take 3/4/5 odds, giving you about the same level of total action as buying/placing the 5 for $21 or a $21 passline bet with no odds, your expected loss is 750 * $5 * .0141 = $53. I'd go with this option, since buying the 5 is about 14 times more expensive. Not to mention it has much more variety and variance (fun) than buying the 5
Last edited by: Ace2 on Mar 27, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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odiousgambit
March 27th, 2022 at 11:28:46 AM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb


Molly is flexible. Bright Side Molly and Dark Side Molly are nearly mirror opposites.
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True but the molly really accentuates the opposite effect. With Bright side molly you lose everything on 7, with Dark side you win everything. A very long roll feels great on the bright side, but is like torture on the dark side
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:35:07 AM permalink
I'd do a 5-count on the dark side.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2022 at 11:42:49 AM permalink
Yo, I just won all those bets, no losses. Adding losses changes the computations substantially.

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