Need advice as a Don’t player on long roll
Turned my 1st live session into a $400 profit. I buy in for $1k and play the DC, and eventually get all the bases loaded because I have layed my 6x bet. So $70 total on each number from a $10 Don’t. I keep track of how many rolls without a seven, and have pretty good success placing $25 on the any 7 bet around the 14 or 15th roll. The swings are huge!
Problem was I encountered a long roll, something like 30 rolls w/o a 7. Gets expensive after playing the DC and replacing my original 6x bets over and over again. I essentially burned through over $1300 and couldn’t back up my bets, so essentially I watched my money dissolve away.
What should I have done? Are there any bets that I could have hedged on? By the way, I was the roller!
definitely not the any 7 betQuote: Vegasrider[snips] ... pretty good success placing $25 on the any 7 bet ... I watched my money dissolve away... What should I have done? ...
pretty selective snips I admitQuote:
I see you want to manage the variance, but you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all. If the swings are too great to stomach, you're better off lowering the free odds bet. Creating greater variance is what the free odds do!
Never when it’s hot (mostly locals) or even choppy (mix)
Quote: charliepatrickPersonally if I'm playing DC as the shooter then I stop if I have three points established. That way hitting the 7 at that stage is the best result and, eventually, I switch sides so I can get out of jail with a come-out 7.
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That is an interesting thought, establishing a few numbers and let it ride vs loading up all the bases. It does lower the risk of replacing those original bets on just about every roll.
It’s a slow grind playing the DC. But I don’t mind, I’m use to grinding it out playing live poker or even UTH. It’s not a race, it a marathon. I always play knowing that my end time is open ended.
Quote: Ace2Only play the DC when the table is cold.
Never when it’s hot or even choppy
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That's interesting because I would agree that there are portions of any gambling session where things are moving along swimmingly and then other portions where it's hard to even win a hand, but it's easier said than done to know which phase you are in.
Actually, realizing that you are in that winning phase and acting on it (with larger bets) are what matters. You might be all happy winning one bet after another but if those aren't your larger bets the end result might not be so good.
Typically what gets people is they are betting small when the going's good and then pour it on chasing losses when the winning is sparse.
I often see Don't players stop adding bets after the shooter throws three numbers.
Absolutely. Because at that stage you can be 100% sure it’s a skilled shooter. Definitely not a random rolling touristQuote: AlanMendelsonEven dont players (should) know when to stop betting.
I often see Don't players stop adding bets after the shooter throws three numbers.
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This is absolutely 100% solid advice. However, if you feel you must put a bet on the 7, you are better off "Hopping the Reds" for $24 (that's $8 each on the 1-6, 2-5, & 3-4) than placing $25 on the Any Seven. You'll save $1 per bet, and you get an extra $4 when it hits.Quote: odiousgambityou don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all.
That said, I agree with OG about not betting center bets.
I generally agree but there’s one exception:Quote: odiousgambityou don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all.
When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%
But since I'm the lone shooter on Bubble Craps and throwing 7's on the Come-outs, it's hard to transition to a Don't Player.
Quote: Vegasrider....I buy in for $1k and play the DC, and eventually get all the bases loaded because I have layed my 6x bet. So $70 total on each number from a $10 Don’t..... The swings are huge!
Problem was I encountered a long roll, something like 30 rolls w/o a 7. Gets expensive after playing the DC and replacing my original 6x bets over and over again. I essentially burned through over $1300 and couldn’t back up my bets, so essentially I watched my money dissolve away.
With the bases loaded you were facing 24 possible losing dice combinations versus 6 winning ones. I never have more than two bets on the Don’ts. Too many possible losing dice combinations beyond that. With the 6 and 9, there are nine possible losing combinations versus six possible winning combinations. 6,8 and 9 behind, now there are fourteen possible losing combinations versus only six winning combinations. Lose just one of those bets with odds and you probably won’t win the hand.
1) Avoid the 'Any 7' bet!Quote: VegasriderProblem was I encountered a long roll, something like 30 rolls w/o a 7. Gets expensive after playing the DC and replacing my original 6x bets over and over again. I essentially burned through over $1300 and couldn’t back up my bets, so essentially I watched my money dissolve away.
What should I have done? Are there any bets that I could have hedged on? By the way, I was the roller!
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2) I never roll when I play the Don'ts but that's just preference.
3) Mathematically, it makes no difference if you do continuous Don't, or 3 point Don't or a single huge Don't bet.
Keep playing the same way till you're at $0.
But you should also have a win goal to stop as well.
4) Wiz says never hedge a bet.
The general consensus for an exception is if you hit 5 #s on the Firebet: Hedge by Laying the 6th #.
4a) The Firebet is a bad bet. Don't play it.
5) If you have anxiety about the amount of $ you're losing, bring less $ to the table.
Play only the $ you're comfortable losing.
but that's not regular hedging, but arbitrageQuote: 100xOdds... 4) Wiz says never hedge a bet.
The general consensus for an exception is if you hit 5 #s on the Firebet: Hedge by Laying the 6th #...
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Rolling a 7 should happen around every 8-9 rolls? I was 6-6 placing any 7 bet after the 14th roll without a 7, until my long roll . Dealers were astonished every time I placed that 7 bet a 7 would roll. Yes, I was lucky but probability after so many rolls it was coming. Like 14 red on roulette, eventually the ball will land on black.
I will place no more than 3 numbers on the Don’t. Keep track of how many times the numbers must be replaced because the number came up. But I will replace it with a new DC bet. I will always lay 6X. This should limit my losses in the event I encounter a long roll. Also I always wait until after two non 7 rolls for me to begin playing the DC. And I will place a $25 field bet to go with it hoping to survive not having a 7 come out. Field bet pays 2x and 3x on craps. If I win, I will take my back my original bet and let it ride for the next roll, and repeat.
Quote: odiousgambitI see you want to manage the variance, but you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all
I disagree.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%
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To paraphrase Billryan: One can predict until it does not happen. A "yellow" chip? Really? Every time? Really?
Very brave!!
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Because at that stage you can be 100% sure it’s a skilled shooter. Definitely not a random rolling tourist
Please define "skilled shooter" and "random rolling tourist." Is there a difference between a "player" and a "tourist"? Should all who play but do not live at or near gambling venues or destinations be labeled "tourist"?
Just asking.
tuttigym
Quote: TankoWith the bases loaded you were facing 24 possible losing dice combinations versus 6 winning ones. I never have more than two bets on the Don’ts. Too many possible losing dice combinations beyond that. With the 6 and 9, there are nine possible losing combinations versus six possible winning combinations. 6,8 and 9 behind, now there are fourteen possible losing combinations versus only six winning combinations. Lose just one of those bets with odds and you probably won’t win the hand.
Would you look at that---4th grade arithmetic. Someone needs to produce the algebra and math formulas to discount what Tanko is alleging less they embrace the logical probabilities here to fore shown. Note I stated "probabilities" not dogmatic guarantees.
tuttigym
Not every time. Only when I’m 100% sure the next roll will be 7Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%
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To paraphrase Billryan: One can predict until it does not happen. A "yellow" chip? Really? Every time? Really?
Very brave!!
tuttigym
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we're not friends anymore then.Quote: tuttigymQuote: odiousgambitI see you want to manage the variance, but you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all
I disagree.
tuttigym
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Just kidding!
I disagreeQuote: 100xOdds
1) Avoid the 'Any 7' bet!
Disagree. Losing the whole buy-in is undisciplined. One should set a loss limit and walk if that threshold is reached.Quote: 100xOdds3)Keep playing the same way till you're at $0.
Agree here also is where discipline is prudent.Quote: 100xOddsBut you should also have a win goal to stop as well.
Quote: 100xOdds4) Wiz says never hedge a bet.
The Wiz is wrong IMO. Explanation is too long.
Quote: 100xOdds4a) The Firebet is a bad bet. Don't play it.
Agree
Quote: 100xOdds5) If you have anxiety about the amount of $ you're losing, bring less $ to the table.
Play only the $ you're comfortable losing.
Greatly agree, goes to discipline again.
tuttigym
How do losers generally look?Quote: JSTATSometimes I play the Don't Pass when the shooter looks like a loser. It has worked for me when I switch from the Pass Line to the dark side.
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Quote: Ace2Not every time. Only when I’m 100% sure the next roll will be 7
Beyond brave
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2How do losers generally look?Quote: JSTATSometimes I play the Don't Pass when the shooter looks like a loser. It has worked for me when I switch from the Pass Line to the dark side.
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Like "skilled shooters"?
tuttigym
All craps players should be thought of equally. Some guys might be making bets that have a lower house edge, but that just means that they spend way more time at the craps tables being losers.Quote: Ace2How do losers generally look?Quote: JSTATSometimes I play the Don't Pass when the shooter looks like a loser. It has worked for me when I switch from the Pass Line to the dark side.
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Quote: AxelWolfAll craps players should be thought of equally. Some guys might be making bets that have a lower house edge, but that just means that they spend way more time at the craps tables being losers.
So, the Wizard is a craps player, and he is "A LOSER. Mr. Mendelson, OdeousGambit, ThatDonGuy, Chump Change, tuttigym, Ace2, and even AxelWolf himself, if he plays craps, are all LOSERS. I wonder what it takes to be a "winner" in the AxelWolf world? Answer ..........crickets.
tuttigym
One thing I have is time, I am never in a rush to play or have only a limited time to play. I essentially live 500 ft door to door from the casino. I did notice I earn much more comp dollars playing craps than any other games. As it should as I had a lot riding on just about every roll.
LOL, every dealer and floor are asking me why am I playing craps. They are use to me playing UTH.
Quote: Ace2Not every time. Only when I’m 100% sure the next roll will be 7Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%
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To paraphrase Billryan: One can predict until it does not happen. A "yellow" chip? Really? Every time? Really?
Very brave!!
tuttigym
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The irony of your statement is not getting full value for your seven bet paying 16.67% vig when you could get 13.33%
Quote: tuttigymQuote: AxelWolfAll craps players should be thought of equally. Some guys might be making bets that have a lower house edge, but that just means that they spend way more time at the craps tables being losers.
So, the Wizard is a craps player, and he is "A LOSER. Mr. Mendelson, OdeousGambit, ThatDonGuy, Chump Change, tuttigym, Ace2, and even AxelWolf himself, if he plays craps, are all LOSERS. I wonder what it takes to be a "winner" in the AxelWolf world? Answer ..........crickets.
tuttigym
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'losers' is an unfortunate way to characterize recreational players, I agree. It is otherwise a clever way to put his thoughts however.
btw Ace2 is clearly putting us on, just repeating some of the dumb advice of the 'hydrate well' variety that has all been heard on this forum various times
Quote: billryanI don't believe I've ever met a professional craps player. I've met pro BJ players, pro vp players, a few pro slot players, even a roulette pro but never a craps pro. I guess they are reclusive animal.
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AP player in craps? Well I receive about $600 in promotional chips a month. I still think using them for Bingo is the best value because you get to play an entire session which are ten games while you purchase max buy in using the computer so you have 240 cards in play each game. And then play a session that is not popular, like. Tuesday at 6 pm. Never on weekends since there are too many players.
Next value is BJ. As promo chip can pay 3:2 if you get BJ.
I just discovered that the casino allows you to use these chips on the field bet. If I can get the dice to roll a 2 or 12, I can get 2x or 3x off the free chip. Generally the house rule is chips can only be used on even money wagers.
How do you get 13.33%Quote: DeMangoQuote: Ace2Not every time. Only when I’m 100% sure the next roll will be 7Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%
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To paraphrase Billryan: One can predict until it does not happen. A "yellow" chip? Really? Every time? Really?
Very brave!!
tuttigym
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The irony of your statement is not getting full value for your seven bet paying 16.67% vig when you could get 13.33%
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Thanks. I believe the edge is actually 1 - 1/6 * 16/3 = 11.11%Quote: DeMango3 way sevens pay 4 1/3 - 1
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Now I’ll start putting three yellow chips on the 3-way seven when I know it’s coming
I know this one skilled shooter that can hit the 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4 on the next roll
Quote: Ace2Thanks. I believe the edge is actually 1 - 1/6 * 16/3 = 11.11%Quote: DeMango3 way sevens pay 4 1/3 - 1
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Now I’ll start putting three yellow chips on the 3-way seven when I know it’s coming
I know this one skilled shooter that can hit the 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4 on the next roll
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A lot of people can hit the 3-4. It takes a special roller to hit the 4-3. Those are the ones to bank one.
Quote: billryanI don't believe I've ever met a professional craps player. I've met pro BJ players, pro vp players, a few pro slot players, even a roulette pro but never a craps pro. I guess they are reclusive animal.
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I've never even heard of a professional craps player including the craps players who sell books and courses. All of them have other jobs or businesses... even those selling dice influencing courses.
I think craps players understand it's a negative expectation game and they also understand the limitations of dice influencing.
Unfortunately its the non players and the people who dont understand DI who make the outrageous claims about DI.
Anyone who really understands DI will tell you their skill has limits and they need luck for better results.
Quote: Ace2I know this one skilled shooter that can hit the 1-6, 2-5 and 3-4 on the next roll
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He is the one you need to contact for your timing of the market. The yellow chips would be small potatoes.
tuttigym
I didn't call anyone a looser. Playing craps or whatever game you choose doesn't make someone a looser in life or whatever, but anytime you are playing a -ev game you are playing as a looser, that's just a fact. There's nothing wong with playing -EV games if that's what you enjoy, that doesn't make you a looser but again, your are playing as a looser. Most of my craps play has been played with an advantage, but even I have myself played craps a few times as a looser.Quote: odiousgambitQuote: tuttigymQuote: AxelWolfAll craps players should be thought of equally. Some guys might be making bets that have a lower house edge, but that just means that they spend way more time at the craps tables being losers.
So, the Wizard is a craps player, and he is "A LOSER. Mr. Mendelson, OdeousGambit, ThatDonGuy, Chump Change, tuttigym, Ace2, and even AxelWolf himself, if he plays craps, are all LOSERS. I wonder what it takes to be a "winner" in the AxelWolf world? Answer ..........crickets.
tuttigym
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'losers' is an unfortunate way to characterize recreational players, I agree. It is otherwise a clever way to put his thoughts however.
btw Ace2 is clearly putting us on, just repeating some of the dumb advice of the 'hydrate well' variety that has all been heard on this forum various times
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Quote: AxelWolfI didn't call anyone a looser. link to original post
What exactly is a looser? Is it someone who walks around with a wrench turning bolts to the left?
Quote: JumboshrimpsI don't follow the OP's post. Assuming DC stands for Don't Come, in what sense are you "loading bases?" And I've never understood why anyone would play both the don't pass line and don't come bets. In both cases, you are simply waiting/hoping for a seven.
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I do not play the pass. Loading up the bases can be done on the DON’T as well, but not 3,4 or 5x like the pass, but up to 6x. A seven out would result me a win on all the numbers, AKA “Bases Loaded” but just lose on the DC bet.
Quote: AxelWolfMost of my craps play has been played with an advantage, but even I have myself played craps a few times as a looser.
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Interesting statement . According to some, all bets on the craps table have a negative expectation, but you play with an "advantage". Perhaps you could elaborate what that or those are, and since you have said that you have lost only a "few times" rather than a majority of times, you certainly, by your definition, are not a craps "loser." Just holding your feet to the fire.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: AxelWolfMost of my craps play has been played with an advantage, but even I have myself played craps a few times as a looser.
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Interesting statement . According to some, all bets on the craps table have a negative expectation, but you play with an "advantage". Perhaps you could elaborate what that or those are, and since you have said that you have lost only a "few times" rather than a majority of times, you certainly, by your definition, are not a craps "loser." Just holding your feet to the fire.
tuttigym
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Beat the casino, not the game.
I agree all bets on the craps table are -EV. With that being said,you can still have an advantage via the marketing department when taking advantage of various promotions. To name a few commonly known angles.... Incentive Mail, match plays, loss rebates, they can all put you at an advantage while playing craps.Quote: tuttigymQuote: AxelWolfMost of my craps play has been played with an advantage, but even I have myself played craps a few times as a looser.
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Interesting statement . According to some, all bets on the craps table have a negative expectation, but you play with an "advantage". Perhaps you could elaborate what that or those are, and since you have said that you have lost only a "few times" rather than a majority of times, you certainly, by your definition, are not a craps "loser." Just holding your feet to the fire.
tuttigym
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