Need advice as a Don’t player on long roll

By no means I am an experienced craps player as I just recently studied craps in YouTube including the Wiz and have run thousands of computer sims as a DON’T Player.

Turned my 1st live session into a $400 profit. I buy in for $1k and play the DC, and eventually get all the bases loaded because I have layed my 6x bet. So $70 total on each number from a $10 Don’t. I keep track of how many rolls without a seven, and have pretty good success placing $25 on the any 7 bet around the 14 or 15th roll. The swings are huge!

Problem was I encountered a long roll, something like 30 rolls w/o a 7. Gets expensive after playing the DC and replacing my original 6x bets over and over again. I essentially burned through over $1300 and couldn’t back up my bets, so essentially I watched my money dissolve away.

What should I have done? Are there any bets that I could have hedged on? By the way, I was the roller!

Quote: Vegasrider

[snips] ... pretty good success placing $25 on the any 7 bet ... I watched my money dissolve away... What should I have done? ...

definitely not the any 7 bet

Quote:

link to original post

pretty selective snips I admit

I see you want to manage the variance, but you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all. If the swings are too great to stomach, you're better off lowering the free odds bet. Creating greater variance is what the free odds do!

Personally if I'm playing DC as the shooter then I stop if I have three points established. That way hitting the 7 at that stage is the best result and, eventually, I switch sides so I can get out of jail with a come-out 7.

Only play the DC when the table is cold (mostly tourists).

Never when it’s hot (mostly locals) or even choppy (mix)

Quote: charliepatrick

Personally if I'm playing DC as the shooter then I stop if I have three points established. That way hitting the 7 at that stage is the best result and, eventually, I switch sides so I can get out of jail with a come-out 7.
link to original post

That is an interesting thought, establishing a few numbers and let it ride vs loading up all the bases. It does lower the risk of replacing those original bets on just about every roll.

It’s a slow grind playing the DC. But I don’t mind, I’m use to grinding it out playing live poker or even UTH. It’s not a race, it a marathon. I always play knowing that my end time is open ended.

Quote: Ace2

Only play the DC when the table is cold.

Never when it’s hot or even choppy
link to original post

That's interesting because I would agree that there are portions of any gambling session where things are moving along swimmingly and then other portions where it's hard to even win a hand, but it's easier said than done to know which phase you are in.

Actually, realizing that you are in that winning phase and acting on it (with larger bets) are what matters. You might be all happy winning one bet after another but if those aren't your larger bets the end result might not be so good.

Typically what gets people is they are betting small when the going's good and then pour it on chasing losses when the winning is sparse.

Even dont players (should) know when to stop betting.

I often see Don't players stop adding bets after the shooter throws three numbers.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Even dont players (should) know when to stop betting.

I often see Don't players stop adding bets after the shooter throws three numbers.
link to original post

Absolutely. Because at that stage you can be 100% sure it’s a skilled shooter. Definitely not a random rolling tourist

Quote: odiousgambit

you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all.

This is absolutely 100% solid advice. However, if you feel you must put a bet on the 7, you are better off "Hopping the Reds" for $24 (that's $8 each on the 1-6, 2-5, & 3-4) than placing $25 on the Any Seven. You'll save $1 per bet, and you get an extra $4 when it hits.

That said, I agree with OG about not betting center bets.

Quote: odiousgambit

you don't want to use the any 7 bet or any center table bets at all.

I generally agree but there’s one exception:

When I’m absolutely sure the next roll is going to be a seven, I turn all my place bets off and put a yellow chip on Any7. In that situation it’s +400% ev instead of the usual -16.7%