Tracking roll outcomes
Quote: tuttigymQuote: TDVegasAs I said, if at this point you’ve been doing this for 5-10-15-20 years and you’ve determined it’s a successful EV play…Then yes, you should be maxing out bets. It’s nothing more than a percentage of winnings that’s you’ve already banked. Using a Kelly criterion. As a craps player, you shouldn’t face scrutiny like a card counter on large wagers.
The ONLY sticking point is does it work? It doesn’t does it? ;-)
Your other points are basically mumbo jumbo….”don’t live in long term”. “Not real”. “Building bankroll isn’t my goal”. “Isolated play”….etc, etc.
Your short term play simply adds up to one long term play. As my friend tomp (the tough craps player) would say “it’s one long session and then you die”.
Enjoy.
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"Maxing out bets" What does that mean exactly? Buy in for $100,000 and what? Something else? Please provide a realistic reference. I am confused by your "mumbo jumbo."
So far, so good in the results department. Of course, there have been infrequent setbacks but nothing in the catastrophic neighborhood.
Which mumbo or jumbo are you unclear about? I can further define, but I am pretty sure you and others know what I am referring to.
I do not do "long term play." If a session is being unproductive with isolated strategies, I do not pile on; I color what I have left and leave. It is called discipline and the reality of the moment. Perhaps that is more mumbo/jumbo, but I can live with that.
tuttigym
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Maxing out bets means you've hit the table limit.
If you go to a $25 table the max bet might be $10,000 or $5,000 or $3,000 depending on the casino.
Maxing out your bet is not mumbo jumbo.
This illustrates why you don't understand concepts including the house edge on bets. You have a basic lack of understanding of what certain terms mean and your misinformation is causing you to have an endless argument.
All of your questions have been answered over and over again.
I think you're trolling us.
Let’s say you make a trillion pass line bets, never varying your bet amount. Your expectation is to lose 1.4141%, and there is a 99.9999998% chance your loss will be between 1.4135 and 1.4147%. For all practical purposes, that’s guaranteedQuote: AlanMendelsonQuote: Ace2But over the long run, your results will match expectations almost exactly. Guaranteed.
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You misspoke here. Actually nothing is guaranteed. Expected is expected, but it's not guaranteed.
Over the long run the house edge is expected to be reflected in the player's results. It is not guaranteed.
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But there is always that 1 in 500,000,000 chance your loss falls outside of that range. So you can’t be too sure of it 😆
Quote: tuttigymI do not do "long term play." If a session is being unproductive with isolated strategies, I do not pile on; I color what I have left and leave. It is called discipline and the reality of the moment.
Short term play is the same as long term play…it’s just 1,000 short term plays adding up to 1 long term play. People think short term isn’t long term. It is. It’s just broken up with meaningless breaks. It’s still the same…it’s one long term result. Your chances are no better playing multiple 20 minute sessions adding up to 24 hours or one long 24 hour straight session. Anything to the contrary and you’ve bought into a idea of gambler fallacy.
Betting max is simply a basis of establishing you play the game at positive EV. After you’ve established that AND won money over the long haul, then your wagering level is merely a reflective percentage of your overall banked wins.
If you’ve banked $100 in wins…bet $5.
If you’ve banked $1,000 in wins…bet $50
If you’ve banked $10,000 in wins…bet $500
If you’ve banked $500,000 in wins…bet $25,000
It’s merely a percentage of what you’ve already won.
The ONLY sticking point is that your “EV system” or whatever advantage you claim to have actually works in the long term. Multiple, multiple sessions, years.
Quote: rxwineI’m surprised we don’t have more pros bowling 300 games with such arm control. Professional bowling doesn’t even try to make you hit several objects to make the ball less likely to hit how you want. The pins don’t jump out of the way. What do you think the problem is?
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You're looking at it the wrong way.
There are people who Bowl 300 games. Lots of them.
There are also lots of great golfers.
Lots of great pitchers.
But no one can influence dice? LOL
. Correct. Just like no one can run a one minute mile. Like no one can bench press 1000 pounds. Like no one can eat 100 hot dogs in 8 minutes. There are so many things humans can’t do. Legally influencing the dice to overcome the house edge is clearly and simply one of them. Because you can’t figure it out doesn’t change that fact.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rxwineI’m surprised we don’t have more pros bowling 300 games with such arm control. Professional bowling doesn’t even try to make you hit several objects to make the ball less likely to hit how you want. The pins don’t jump out of the way. What do you think the problem is?
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You're looking at it the wrong way.
There are people who Bowl 300 games. Lots of them.
There are also lots of great golfers.
Lots of great pitchers.
But no one can influence dice? LOL
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Quote: SOOPOO. Correct. Just like no one can run a one minute mile. Like no one can bench press 1000 pounds. Like no one can eat 100 hot dogs in 8 minutes. There are so many things humans can’t do. Legally influencing the dice to overcome the house edge is clearly and simply one of them. Because you can’t figure it out doesn’t change that fact.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rxwineI’m surprised we don’t have more pros bowling 300 games with such arm control. Professional bowling doesn’t even try to make you hit several objects to make the ball less likely to hit how you want. The pins don’t jump out of the way. What do you think the problem is?
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You're looking at it the wrong way.
There are people who Bowl 300 games. Lots of them.
There are also lots of great golfers.
Lots of great pitchers.
But no one can influence dice? LOL
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Is it really impossible for someone to control two dice? Dice dont weigh a thousand pounds, you dont have to throw them fast, you dont have to swallow them either. Just toss them a few feet on a table. Heck you dont even need to hit a bullseye.
Apparently it is, since no one has ever been able to prove they can do itQuote: AlanMendelson
Is it really impossible for someone to control two dice?
I skimmed the book “Wong on Dice.” About the only thing of substance in the book was when a group of investors organized a dice challenge for “Little Joe”, who is apparently the best shooter in Wong’s group. In 1004 rolls he threw 179 sevens, which is 12 MORE than expected!
Quote: Ace2Apparently it is, since no one has ever been able to prove they can do itQuote: AlanMendelson
Is it really impossible for someone to control two dice?
I skimmed the book “Wong on Dice.” About the only thing of substance in the book was when a group of investors organized a dice challenge for “Little Joe”, who is apparently the best shooter in Wong’s group. In 1004 rolls he threw 179 sevens, which is 12 MORE than expected!
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Prove what? What is your definition of proof?
My definition of proof is different. I want to see how the dice behave. That is a Visual proof.
Next I want the shooter to win me money.
I can win money in three rolls by calling off my bets before a 7 is rolled.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: SOOPOO. Correct. Just like no one can run a one minute mile. Like no one can bench press 1000 pounds. Like no one can eat 100 hot dogs in 8 minutes. There are so many things humans can’t do. Legally influencing the dice to overcome the house edge is clearly and simply one of them. Because you can’t figure it out doesn’t change that fact.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: rxwineI’m surprised we don’t have more pros bowling 300 games with such arm control. Professional bowling doesn’t even try to make you hit several objects to make the ball less likely to hit how you want. The pins don’t jump out of the way. What do you think the problem is?
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You're looking at it the wrong way.
There are people who Bowl 300 games. Lots of them.
There are also lots of great golfers.
Lots of great pitchers.
But no one can influence dice? LOL
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Is it really impossible for someone to control two dice? Dice dont weigh a thousand pounds, you dont have to throw them fast, you dont have to swallow them either. Just toss them a few feet on a table. Heck you dont even need to hit a bullseye.
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Depends what you mean by ‘control’. If you mean consistently throw them that they go a predetermined distance within an inch or two, sure. If you mean that they don’t exceed a certain height during the toss? Sure. If you mean they have end up within a few inches of the back wall usually, sure! If you mean that after hitting the table and the back wall, controlling the faces that are up enough to beat the house edge, then, NO, it can’t be done!!!
In fact, people win at casino games every day and the house edge stays intact.
Quote: Mission146There is no possible question that you could ever ask that I would feel an obligation to answer, so, no. I'll respond to your posts if and when I feel like it, which won't be often. When I do, you can be sure that the tone will be condescending, sardonic, dismissive or some combination of the three.
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Certainly, that is your purgative, but you left out one word: dishonest.
tuttigym
Some of the longest rolls I’ve ever seen have been made by tourists playing craps for the first time in their life.Quote: ChumpChange
It's usually the hot rolls that have to show up, and if tourists aren't gonna throw those, you'll be in a deep hole.
The reason for this: rolling dice is pure luck.
Quote: Ace2Tuttigym, if you believe a game is positive EV for you because you win sometimes, then you are the casino’s favorite kind of player. Have fun, just don’t go wagering more than you can afford. People get ruined that way
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Mr.Ace2: You will be happy to know that I had an in-depth "conversation" with ThatDonGuy which resulted in identifying MY confusion regarding EV. I was conflating EV with "probability." My play and/or strategies are based on "probabilities" without regard to the presence of any EV as I am fully aware of the pitfalls or loss potential of any wagering scheme I might employ. If a player is so fearful of the "negative expectation" associated with any gaming venue, it constricts and the player plays tight and scared. There is not much positive that can happen at that point.
tuttigym
I may have said this before, but I always play within my means, but thanks for the sage advice.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Tuttigym, if you believe a game is positive EV for you because you win sometimes, then you are the casino’s favorite kind of player. Have fun, just don’t go wagering more than you can afford. People get ruined that way
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Mr.Ace2: You will be happy to know that I had an in-depth "conversation" with ThatDonGuy which resulted in identifying MY confusion regarding EV. I was conflating EV with "probability." My play and/or strategies are based on "probabilities" without regard to the presence of any EV as I am fully aware of the pitfalls or loss potential of any wagering scheme I might employ. If a player is so fearful of the "negative expectation" associated with any gaming venue, it constricts and the player plays tight and scared. There is not much positive that can happen at that point.
tuttigym
I may have said this before, but I always play within my means, but thanks for the sage advice.
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Oh, so virtually everything that you said in our discourse vis-a-vis EV was wrong, after all? I'm surprised to learn that, as I thought you were instead producing excellent new mathematical theories worthy of detailed exploration.
Actually I’d say it’s much more important to understand the variance than the edge
Quote: Ace2There’s no need to be fearful of the house edge, especially if it’s low (like half a percent or less). But, IMO, you should be aware of the edge and variance of the game you play. It allows you to set your bet amount properly and have a reasonable estimate (range) of what your results will be
Actually I’d say it’s much more important to understand the variance than the edge
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I think there is certainly much more ignorance of variance the EV, even among people who consider themselves smart betters.
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Mission146There is no possible question that you could ever ask that I would feel an obligation to answer, so, no. I'll respond to your posts if and when I feel like it, which won't be often. When I do, you can be sure that the tone will be condescending, sardonic, dismissive or some combination of the three.
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Certainly, that is your purgative, but you left out one word: dishonest.
tuttigym
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Purgative made me smile. Nice play, credit where it's due.
