18yos in a row revisited -an OD-created thread
Are you positive it wasn't made here?Quote: WizardPlease don't suggest Alan's son's five royals, as the claim wasn't made here and was walked back.
]
I don't believe you saw this on anything random.Quote: darkoz
32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.
Quote: AxelWolfI don't believe you saw this on anything random.Quote: darkoz
32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.
link to original post
I witnessed and played the 32 red run at Ceasars Atlantic City, second floor, live roulette table.
This would be circa 2012.
Incidentally, my memory of it is that good because it was such a unique event in my experience.
Anything similarly unique like 18 yo's or some 60 winning hands of blackjack should have a similar recall for those who experienced it in my opinion
Quote: WizardAre there any good ones I'm missing?
The probability of you existing at all = 1 in 10^2,685,000
Quote: coachbellyQuote: WizardAre there any good ones I'm missing?
The probability of you existing at all = 1 in 10^2,685,000
link to original post
I was just going to make a post to this effect. It really is the lowest of low probability outcomes even when you make a bunch of very conservative assumptions.
Quote: unJonI was just going to make a post to this effect.
You're past-posting.
I knew that you would.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI never discussed my son and his five video poker jackpots on this site until you brought it up.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/19141-three-royals-in-ten-days-what-is-the-probability-odds/#post383901
Of course, I already predicted Alan will come up with something to defend and walk back that statement and will play word games.
Let's take a look.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNice hits.
A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.
I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?
link to original post
Quote: AxelWolfIf this was a standard VP machine. I just can't believe this.
various posts in between
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhat don't you believe? Five royals in 24 hours?
First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play.
Since there are W2Gs as proof care to challenge me with a small wager?
link to original post
This was talked about on various different threads and made its way to a different forum where it morphed into a 5k bet offer or something like that, and it got heated as Alan Insisted it happened.
Even now things don't jive with what Alan is saying and what his son told us. I'm fairly certain when his son told us what went down he didn't indicate he ever told Alan it was 5 Royals.
But I'm to believe 18 yo's and 20 bj losses in a row.
Alan mentioned something about an open mind.
If a renowned investigative reporter who has met presidents, and has many more achievements under his belt is so far off on something so easy to get the correct facts/ information regarding something he was so adamant about, how am I to believe all the other outrageous claims? Paint me out as the bad guy for pointing out all the crazy claims and not believing with an open mind, but then ask yourself, should you yourself believe?
Quote: coachbellyQuote: WizardAre there any good ones I'm missing?
The probability of you existing at all = 1 in 10^2,685,000
link to original post
I just feel lucky to be here, man.
Quote: AxelWolfshould you yourself believe?
I don't believe you (are still harassing Alan)
What are the odds against this kind of behavior existing?
I'm witnessing it, but I still don't believe it.
It was probably SOME 32 reds in a row. I highly doubt you seen THAT SOME 24,000,000,000 to 1 shot and yet no one reported it but you.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfI don't believe you saw this on anything random.Quote: darkoz
32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.
link to original post
I witnessed and played the 32 red run at Ceasars Atlantic City, second floor, live roulette table.
This would be circa 2012.
Incidentally, my memory of it is that good because it was such a unique event in my experience.
Anything similarly unique like 18 yo's or some 60 winning hands of blackjack should have a similar recall for those who experienced it in my opinion
link to original post
I regret that this forum is devolving into threads created by moderators with attention-grabbing titles about claims of statistically implausible events - thereby giving far more visibility to these claims than anybody had intended. Especially because the results seems to be a generally low-quality level of discussion.
I have slightly altered the title of this thread to make it clear that it was not created by the original poster (me.)
See you all in 30 days.
Quote: gordonm888I am announcing my self-suspension with a term of 30 days for hijacking the OD's thread on "60 wins in a row" with the post that now starts this thread. I had thought that the multiple posts by others mentioning "the 18yos in a row' claim had created an adequate precedent, but I humbly acknowledge that I was apparently wrong.
I regret that this forum is devolving into threads created by moderators with attention-grabbing titles about claims of statistically implausible events - thereby giving far more visibility to these claims than anybody had intended. Especially because the results seems to be a generally low-quality level of discussion.
I have slightly altered the title of this thread to make it clear that it was not created by the original poster (me.)
See you all in 30 days.
link to original post
Say what?
I probably shouldn't have brought it up in the first place. I actually resistant doing so when Alan first chimed in. At some point, I was like screw this, someone who has made outrageous unbelievable claims(one that was debunked) showing 'support' for outrageous claim makers and wants us to keep an open mind or whatever.Quote: coachbellyQuote: AxelWolfshould you yourself believe?
I don't believe you (are still harassing Alan)
What are the odds against this kind of behavior existing?
I'm witnessing it, but I still don't believe it.
link to original post
Alan has accused me of trolling him. If that's the case, Alan has been trolling Advantage Players, mathematicians, and me personally for years.
Quote: AxelWolfAlan has accused me of trolling him. If that's the case, Alan has been trolling Advantage Players, mathematicians, and me personally for years.
Not sure why another member's poor behavior would justify yours, but are you confessing to trolling Alan?
Quote: coachbellyQuote: AlanMendelsonYou are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?
That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.
Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.
link to original post
It has nothing to do with mathsplaining as a cause for the occurrence was identified.
You'll notice that this extremely unlikely event was documented, investigated and a cause was determined. That's a key component that seems to be missing from many other claims.
On the other hand, my defense of 18 Yo's has always been twofold:
A.) It's theoretically possible. (Which can be, "Mathsplained," if you were interested.)
AND:
B.) Given a few more rolls, you end up with a sequence of results that is every bit as unlikely as 18 Yo's, not only that, but it ALWAYS happens because it has to. If you have twenty rolls at all, then, by necessity, you have an extremely unlikely sequence of twenty results. That, by the way, is more of the, "Mathsplaining," that you seem to want to disregard.
My problem with Alan's story has always been that the most disciplined Craps players on the planet were playing that day, as he has stated that nobody bet it. That said, I'm not going to flatly call his claim untrue...because in order to be consistent...I care about whether or not I jknow something or do not know it, but that's definitely the toughest component for me to accept.
Well, the Player did run 7 times (not 8), and the player at that table did not play even one of the hands. I had already observed that this player was really big on free hands and didn't play too many hands - would free hand request something like 80% of the hands coming out of the shoe.
At that point a couple of the dealers said that I should go over and start playing. I declined, and stuck to my Blackjack, but said
"Watch, that shoe is going to run BIG TIME player."
And it did, the Bank ran single only, followed by multiple Players, then single Bank, followed by many more Players. Player was running and continued to run something like 8:1 over Bank. Eventually, the pattern changed and the Bank ran twice only, then back to Player, which ran twice, and at that point I was done with my Blackjack session and left.
But the point being, that improbable events happen, and in that instance I could and even did predict what was going to happen, and yet the player at that table where the shoe was and did continue to run crazily in favor of the Player, mostly just sat there staring at the gift being presented.
Quote: AxelWolfIt was probably SOME 32 reds in a row. I highly doubt you seen THAT SOME 24,000,000,000 to 1 shot and yet no one reported it but you.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfI don't believe you saw this on anything random.Quote: darkoz
32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.
link to original post
I witnessed and played the 32 red run at Ceasars Atlantic City, second floor, live roulette table.
This would be circa 2012.
Incidentally, my memory of it is that good because it was such a unique event in my experience.
Anything similarly unique like 18 yo's or some 60 winning hands of blackjack should have a similar recall for those who experienced it in my opinion
link to original post
link to original post
It was absolutely 32 straight reds in a row because I wagered after the first three reds with $5, kept wagering on red, doing a Fibonacci every two or three spins until I was betting $100 (21 in the Fibonacci but I decided to make it an even $100).
I was surprised when it went to 32 reds. (I wish I had made more money but kept saying to myself as soon as I raise my wager it was going to end and bam that streak kept going)
As to someone else needing to report it, based on what?
Tell me what are the odds that someone else who is also a member of WOV coincidentally was sitting at my table at Ceasars in AC the exact same morning I witnessed this and counted along with me? I'd say the odds of that are astronomically higher than 32 reds in a row.
As for someone at Ceasars noticing it, people who kept wagering on black and losing kept groaning but no one seemed to be keeping count except myself and mostly because I was doing the progressive Fibonacci.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less improbable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
I remember the first three $75 freebets were lost in the very first spin.
But the fourth one (so literally two weeks and my fourth trip) I hit a streak that lasted 16 or 17 spins. This time I was ballsy and made a few grand.
I reported it on this forum right here. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/18987-caesars-ac-trip-report/
But wait, there's more!
I sent you a THIRD PHOTO of two dice stacked thrown by another player AGAIN with names, date, time for you to verify.
Now what are the chances ONE SHOOTER could do that twice AND have the confirmation data and photo and then that same player is at the table when A DIFFERENT SHOOTER does it also and again there are photos and supporting data??
What are the odds?
Quote: MDawgI don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post
Definitely double zero. It was a $5 table.
Quote: AlanMendelsonWizard be sure to use MY PHOTOS of throwing two dice at Red Rock with the dice coming to rest STACKED. Not only did I give you the dates and times of the event but I also gave you the names of the boxmen.
But wait, there's more!
I sent you a THIRD PHOTO of two dice stacked thrown by another player AGAIN with names, date, time for you to verify.
Now what are the chances ONE SHOOTER could do that twice AND have the confirmation data and photo and then that same player is at the table when A DIFFERENT SHOOTER does it also and again there are photos and supporting data??
What are the odds?
link to original post
Some things you can't calculate that easily because you can't know first of all how many times dice have rested stacked like that. And then you'd have to figure that against how many times dice have been rolled, period, in all casinos? How does one calculate that?
For all of these "improbability" equations I think what is missing is how many hands of Baccarat, Blackjack, etc. have been played throughout history, how many rolls of dice, spins of roulette, throughout history. As time goes on any event becomes at least somewhat more probable compared to the sum total of all completed events.
In other words, the chance of some bizarre mutation in a human being is certainly more probable today after all the billions born versus at the beginning of humankind.
Quote: AxelWolfI probably shouldn't have brought it up in the first place. I actually resistant doing so when Alan first chimed in. At some point, I was like screw this, someone who has made outrageous unbelievable claims(one that was debunked) showing 'support' for outrageous claim makers and wants us to keep an open mind or whatever.Quote: coachbellyQuote: AxelWolfshould you yourself believe?
I don't believe you (are still harassing Alan)
What are the odds against this kind of behavior existing?
I'm witnessing it, but I still don't believe it.
link to original post
Alan has accused me of trolling him. If that's the case, Alan has been trolling Advantage Players, mathematicians, and me personally for years.
link to original post
I wonder if I still would have won the bet for 5K?
My son cleared up that he he did not hit five $4000 but he did confirm five jackpots including at least two $4000 and still had a net loss... and the net loss was the bet.
Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.
For the record I revealed information about Rob Singer who claimed to be the ULTIMATE AP with his unsupported claims about the double up bug.
Quote: Mission146It has nothing to do with mathsplaining as a cause for the occurrence was identified.
The cause of the unlikely baccarat win streak wasn't identified to the members here for some 4 months.
The incessant mathsplaining and derision of the reporter would have commenced and continued for some months before the cause was identified.
This is what we are witnessing now, unidentified causes for unlikely events prompting harassment and insults directed towards the reporters.
Quote: MDawgI don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post
Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386
E &OE
Quote: MDawgQuote: AlanMendelsonWizard be sure to use MY PHOTOS of throwing two dice at Red Rock with the dice coming to rest STACKED. Not only did I give you the dates and times of the event but I also gave you the names of the boxmen.
But wait, there's more!
I sent you a THIRD PHOTO of two dice stacked thrown by another player AGAIN with names, date, time for you to verify.
Now what are the chances ONE SHOOTER could do that twice AND have the confirmation data and photo and then that same player is at the table when A DIFFERENT SHOOTER does it also and again there are photos and supporting data??
What are the odds?
link to original post
Some things you can't calculate that easily because you can't know first of all how many times dice have rested stacked like that. And then you'd have to figure that against how many times dice have been rolled, period, in all casinos? How does one calculate that?
For all of these "improbability" equations I think what is missing is how many hands of Baccarat, Blackjack, etc. have been played throughout history, how many rolls of dice, spins of roulette, throughout history. As time goes on any event becomes at least somewhat more probable compared to the sum total of all completed events.
In other words, the chance of some bizarre mutation in a human being is certainly more probable today after all the billions born versus at the beginning of humankind.
link to original post
Mdawg I agree. Things can happen as the universe of things happening expands.
But look at the 18 yos this way: the chance of throwing an eleven in craps is one out of 18. Not an outrageous number is it?
And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the next roll.
And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the roll after that... and on the roll after that... and on the roll after that.
ONLY WHEN LOOKING IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR DO THE ODDS BECOME ASTRONOMICAL.
But on each roll it's always 1 out of 18.
Now I'm not a blackjack player, but what are the odds of winning one hand at blackjack?
What are the odds that you'll win the next hand?
I'm guessing the astronomical numbers appear only in the REARVIEW mirror.
Is there something wrong with you??? Seriously, How is that not trolling?Quote: AlanMendelson
I wonder if I still would have won the bet for 5K?
My son cleared up that he he did not hit five $4000 but he did confirm five jackpots including at least two $4000 and still had a net loss... and the net loss was the bet.
link to original post
How the heck(A much stronger word is in order) would anyone in their right mind think you should win a bet for something that didn't happen? IT WASN'T EVEN CLOSE to 5 single-line Royals. The only way you win that bet would be with fake documentation.
Nice try, Let's ignore the elephant in the room, you know, the one where you claim you never discussed this here until I did? The exact opposite is true. I never discussed it on the forum until you did.
Did anyone notice how Alan's INCORRECT claim lead at least two people to believe something without a second guess or follow-up? Two people I believe to be smart and logical. 🤦♂️🤦♂️
Quote: AlanMendelson
Mdawg I agree. Things can happen as the universe of things happening expands.
But look at the 18 yos this way: the chance of throwing an eleven in craps is one out of 18. Not an outrageous number is it?
And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the next roll.
And the odds of throwing 11 again is still one out of 18 on the roll after that... and on the roll after that... and on the roll after that.
ONLY WHEN LOOKING IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR DO THE ODDS BECOME ASTRONOMICAL.
But on each roll it's always 1 out of 18.
Now I'm not a blackjack player, but what are the odds of winning one hand at blackjack?
What are the odds that you'll win the next hand?
I'm guessing the astronomical numbers appear only in the REARVIEW mirror.
link to original post
I fully agree with the rearview mirror analogy.
And in any case, once something has happened it simply has happened.
I think what some people are getting at is that it is more probable that something didn't happen versus that it did happen, therefore it did not happen. That is a fallacy.
Can you rephrase that or explain what you mean?Quote: AlanMendelson
Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.
]
First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.
You dont know if I knew basic strategy.
You dont know if I attempted to count.
You dont know anything.
The truth is I probably played a TOTAL of no more than 100 hands of blackjack in a casino my entire life. That's no more than 100 hands. I'm not a blackjack player. I dont even know basic strategy about what cards to split.
But you're saying my report about losing 20 $1 hands in a row is outrageous?
I'd call it understandable.
By the way my first time in a casino was when I was 25 years old. $2 blackjack. I had a $20 budget. I cashed out about $12, if I remember correctly.
I'm 69 years old now.
I remember playing $2 blackjack at Circus Circus in 1988 which was my first visit to Vegas. Again I had a $20 budget.
I played blackjack at Caesars only twice and I dont think I played more than about ten hands each time. My brother was visiting so I sat with him for a few hands. There were $10 tables then.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: MDawgI don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post
Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386
E &OE
link to original post
Well I Did only witness it once :)
Quote: Mission146"Mathsplaining," that you seem to want to disregard.
What makes it seem like I want to disregard mathsplaining?
I acknowledged that it occurs and is likely to occur.
I don't disregard it, just as I don't disregard the harassment that the reporters have endured, and we continue to witness.
Quote: AxelWolfCan you rephrase that or explain what you mean?Quote: AlanMendelson
Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.
]
link to original post
Very simple.
Everytime I question reported wins I'm labeled a troll.
It seems that calling someone a troll is the catch all defense of APs who refuse to give specifics about their special plays.
The message has been: if an AP says he won at a special play you're not supposed to ask -- just believe it because you can't challenge an AP. If you do ask you're a troll.
Trust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.Quote: AlanMendelsonAxelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.
First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.
Quote: OnceDearQuote: MDawgI don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post
Probability 22 Players in a row 0.4462^22 = 1 in 51,327,433
Probability 32 Reds in a row US Double 0 (18/38)^32 = 1 in 24,230,084,485
Probability 32 Reds in a row EU Single 0 (18/37)^32 = 1 in 10,321,314,386
E &OE
link to original post
So what's the probability of 16 Banks in a row? because I have experienced that more than once this trip alone!
16 Banks, no intervening ties:
I took the above pic this trip but didn't take a pic of every shoe where I experienced sixteen banks in a row. And yes, I played those 16 banks and won low six figures. I didn't just watch. Doesn't that make the event less improbable in the eyes of the typical WOV naysayer, that I not only experienced but played and benefited from it?
The further beauty of that shoe was that the tie happened after the 16 Banks, so I cut the bet and then lost the next hand for not much compared to how high I had gotten with the progression.
Also, please compare your numbers with these that are wildly different!
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: ThatDonGuySounds like it's time to break out the simulation code.
link to original post
After a run of 65 million 8-deck shoes (burn one card, plus its value (count 0 cards as 10), from the top; deal all the way down until there are 6 or fewer cards left):
14 bank wins at start: 1 / 51,677
Probability of a shoe having a run of at least:
15 bank wins: 1 / 3,151
16 bank wins: 1 / 6,903
17 bank wins: 1 / 15,108
18 bank wins: 1 / 33,597
19 bank wins: 1 / 70,894
20 bank wins: 1 / 154,418
21 bank wins: 1 / 359,171
22 bank wins: 1 / 730,449
link to original post
Quote: AxelWolfyou claim you never discussed this here until I did? The exact opposite is true. I never discussed it on the forum until you did.
It's smart and logical to understand that Alan meant that it was not brought up in this thread until you brought it up.
You went and found a discussion from 7 years ago, it's clear to me that's not what he was referring to.
And what is to be accomplished by asking this question?
Quote: AxelWolfIs there something wrong with you???
Is that at all appropriate?
Quote: AxelWolfTrust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.Quote: AlanMendelsonAxelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.
First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.
link to original post
When I brought up losing the 20 hands i said i had bad luck. Other players at the table won some or most of their hands. I lost.
But i wasn't an expert player. A better player might have played the cards differently. I dont know.
Maybe had i taken one more card i would have beaten the dealer's 18. I dont know. I wasn't counting. I dont know how to count.
What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: AxelWolfTrust me, I thought about this and I was going to put that caveat but I can't imagine it wasn't brought up whenever originally discussed, and knowing you, this wasn't a story that involved you telling us that you played BJ horribly. I would be willing to bet a small amount that you squashed any indications that you played like an idiot. Even if you were playing extra ploppy like, it would be fairly rare.Quote: AlanMendelsonAxelwolf I'm surprised you would even challenge my report that I lost 20 $1 hands of blackjack in a row at the Sahara.
First of all you have no idea what my ability is as a blackjack player is.
link to original post
When I brought up losing the 20 hands i said i had bad luck. Other players at the table won some or most of their hands. I lost.
But i wasn't an expert player. A better player might have played the cards differently. I dont know.
Maybe had i taken one more card i would have beaten the dealer's 18. I dont know. I wasn't counting. I dont know how to count.
What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
link to original post
Huh?
How would you know it didn't work until after you gambled. Card counters aren't psychic. When the count is high is when to wager. Variance means it doesn't always work but the advantage was still in the players favor.
I never considered you a troll for wanting proof about specific plays. I have heard BS coming out of AP's mouths as well.Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: AxelWolfCan you rephrase that or explain what you mean?Quote: AlanMendelson
Everytime an AP is questioned about unsupported claims the challenger is called a troll.
]
link to original post
Very simple.
Everytime I question reported wins I'm labeled a troll.
It seems that calling someone a troll is the catch all defense of APs who refuse to give specifics about their special plays.
The message has been: if an AP says he won at a special play you're not supposed to ask -- just believe it because you can't challenge an AP. If you do ask you're a troll.
link to original post
No joke, on more than one occasion I heard someone claim they were on a specific play doing a specific thing. I know for a fact they were full of crap because it was my story they heard and they have just repeated it.
You don't have to believe anything I say, It won't affect me. There are enough people who know what I'm saying is true, and can verify if need be.
Mike wrote about a play recently. I bet had he not written about it and had I told you I played something worth XYZ and did XYZ, you wouldn't have believed it.
I don't claim to be 100% accurate on everything I remember, but it's not going to be far off, and I'm willing to say when the exact details have faded.
I recall a situation where you didn't believe there were loss rebates that offered more than 100% back in the past. You wanted proof, zero chance since they may do it again. The last thing I need is you investigating and asking questions. Meanwhile, there was one going on at that very time(one not worth my time). I thought about proving it to you but thought better of it for many reasons, one being that it may affect others.
Someone not believing me is their loss.
He claims I've been on him for twenty years; it may seem that way but it is not him I had issues with, rather it was his claims.
Back in the day he was a staunch proponent of dice setting; he couldn't do it but believed it was possible.
That notion, i.e. the efficacy of dice setting, seems to have been debunked.
We went round and round for years on that one.
His posts have provided both entertainment and a degree of puzzlement, as in "How could a journalist make such a claim?"
The Wiz gave us the math on the odds of hitting 18 yo's in a row: so astronomical as to be deemed impossible, not improbable.
I still wonder WHY alan made the claim; unless he walks this one back as well I guess I'll never know, and that's OK, I suffer such claims gladly.
Oh, I question them, but I still laugh.
Wrong, that's not what he meant.Quote: coachbelly
It's smart and logical to understand that Alan meant that it was not brought up in this thread until you brought it up.
Quote: MDawgSo what's the probability of 16 Banks in a row? because I have experienced that more than once this trip alone!
16 Banks, no intervening ties:
link to original post
The probability that it happened is 100%
The probability that it would happen from any starting hand observed...
The ‘Banker’ wins 50.38
16 x consecutive would be The ‘Banker’ wins 0.5038^16 = 1 in 58000 or so
Probability that you saw it once in a trip would be approx 1 in 58000 x Number of hands you observed.
Only you can know that latter number.
Anyways. Well done on pressing into it.
E&OE
Isn't working? Does not compute. A card counter should leave when the count is no longer in their favor (+EV)Quote: AlanMendelson
What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
Obviously, there are some exceptions, such as...bankroll Jeopardy, heat, or if for some reason judgment their is being affected.
Quote: MrVI recall giving alan a possible "out" for his 18 yo's in a row claim shortly after he made it: given his health, I wondered whether a medical condition may have caused him to imagine, hallucinate, and / or misremember the event?
He claims I've been on him for twenty years; it may seem that way but it is not him I had issues with, rather it was his claims.
Back in the day he was a staunch proponent of dice setting; he couldn't do it but believed it was possible.
That notion, i.e. the efficacy of dice setting, seems to have been debunked.
We went round and round for years on that one.
His posts have provided both entertainment and a degree of puzzlement, as in "How could a journalist make such a claim?"
The Wiz gave us the math on the odds of hitting 18 yo's in a row: so astronomical as to be deemed impossible, not improbable.
I still wonder WHY alan made the claim; unless he walks this one back as well I guess I'll never know, and that's OK, I suffer such claims gladly.
Oh, I question them, but I still laugh.
link to original post
MrV do you understand that making false statements about my health are damaging, even libelous to someone who posts using their real name? And you claim to be a lawyer?
Did you know that before my kidney and pancreas transplants California required me to pass a physical to have a drivers license?
By the way all I ever said about dice influencing was that it was possible and if dice was a random game it didnt hurt to try to influence the dice. Also I said I observed three and possibly four shooters who I considered to have controlled throws.
Now what's so outrageous about that?
What's outrageous is all the videos that I see on YouTube by players who call their wobbly dice that bounce all over the table "controlled throws."
There was even a member of this forum who made videos of his UNCONTROLLED THROWS who used those videos to proclaim dice influencing didnt work. Well of course his dice influencing didnt work because his throws had no control. Now his videos were outrageous.
I will never go back on my report about the 18 yos. I signed my name to it.
Quote: AxelWolfIsn't working? Does not compute. A card counter should leave when the count is no longer in their favor (+EV)Quote: AlanMendelson
What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
Obviously, there are some exceptions, such as...bankroll Jeopardy, heat, or if for some reason judgment their is being affected.
link to original post
I asked this question and never got an answer. Maybe you can answer it:
What if the card counter made a mistake in his count?
Quote: coachbellyQuote: Mission146It has nothing to do with mathsplaining as a cause for the occurrence was identified.
The cause of the unlikely baccarat win streak wasn't identified to the members here for some 4 months.
The incessant mathsplaining and derision of the reporter would have commenced and continued for some months before the cause was identified.
This is what we are witnessing now, unidentified causes for unlikely events prompting harassment and insults directed towards the reporters.
link to original post
Okay, so the event is either astoundingly unlikely or had a cause that has yet to be identified.
To be clear: When people say that no such thing was witnessed, that’s nothing more than an educated opinion. When people talk about how unlikely the event is, that’s a fact.
IOW, they look at the solution to the math problem and extrapolate from the improbability, as well as perhaps other factors, that they either believe or don’t believe it happened.
Strictly speaking, only someone who was there could absolutely declare that it didn’t happen.
Even then, if you wanted to find a cause that has so far been unidentified, you’d have to have documentation that you could look back on and investigate over and above a single person’s account.
Quote: AlanMendelsonMrV do you understand that making false statements about my health are damaging, even libelous to someone who posts using their real name?
Sorry, that dog won't hunt.
A: You're a public figure, with the enhanced burden that imposes.
B: More importantly I never claimed anything, I simply wondered whether that might be the reason.
OK, you emphatically deny that you imagined, hallucinated or misremembered: got it.
If you didn't imagine it, and if as the Wiz claims the odds are such that such an event is impossible in the real world, that leaves only door number three.
Do you really want to go there?
Quote: AlanMendelson
What's outrageous is when i read about card counters who talk about losing $20K and call it variance. That's outrageous because shouldn't a card counter get up from the table when the count isnt working?
link to original post
Alan,
The player advantage does NOT overcome variance. Persistance and the averaging of the outcomes of LOTS of wagers has to take care of that.
E.g a player wagering 10 hands at $100 flat bets and a house ege of 0.5% might reasonably expect to lose $50
Plus or minus (10^0.5 x 1.13 x 100) = $357 to one standard deviation
Ie. range is Lose 407 through to Win 307 averaging -50
If he had a player advantage of 0.5%, then his expected value is to Win $50 Plus or Minus $307
I.e he could still easily lose 257 over the session.
E&OE
https://www.blackjackchamp.com/news/standard-deviation-blackjack-game/
Quote: coachbellyIt's smart and logical to understand that Alan meant that it was not brought up in this thread until you brought it up.
Quote: AxelWolfWrong, that's not what he meant.
He didn't post here for over 4 years, so he likely wasn't talking about a discussion from 7 years ago, which was before his sabbatical.
He likely meant that you brought up his son and the royals in the context of recent discussions, in an attempt to discredit hm.
Isn't that why you brought it up recently?
Quote: Mission146Strictly speaking, only someone who was there could absolutely declare that it didn’t happen.
What are you talking about "could"?
They certainly could, can, and they do just that...it happens all the time around here.
Quote: SOOPOO18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN.
