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gordonm888
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gordonm888
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October 9th, 2021 at 6:27:29 PM permalink
Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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October 9th, 2021 at 6:53:30 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.
link to original post



That was a great post. Thank you
Order from chaos
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 9th, 2021 at 7:48:53 PM permalink
Gordonm888 I have another possibility for you which I mentioned once in passing.

What if the two dice were not balanced dice?

The shooter may not be responsible but perhaps the factory was?

Consider this: each shooter gets to choose two of five dice for his turn. Now, what if this particular shooter happened to have picked one die which favored a 5 and one die which favored a six?

What are the chances one shooter would pick those two particular dice?

Here's something NO ONE EVER ASKED ME BEFORE:

How long was this shooter's roll?

Well, except for the 18 yos it wasn't long at all.

The shooter established a point and then had his run of yos and then a couple more numbers. And then 7 out.

The more I think about it, the 18 yos in a row could have been helped by off balance dice... two off balanced dice which THIS SHOOTER had chosen.

I also wrote about how I once chose from a new stick of dice that had just been unwrapped... and a pip from the 6 on one die was missing.

Quality control is not perfect.

Let me add:

If the next shooter chose the die that favored the 6 but the second die was balanced his roll would appear normal and random.

I should also add: the stickman checked the dice three times during the 18 yos and found nothing wrong. But what he did was move the dice with his stick. Perhaps that small motion was not enough for the off balance of the dice to show.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 9th, 2021 at 7:57:10 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.
link to original post

- His claim is not a "boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story"

One must go back and read what lead to that and other incredible claims he has made. If memory serves me correctly, In Alan's case's it's usually rooted in some kind of 'teaching moment' to prove a point. Once others do a double-take and the calculators come out, this...." - He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations)." MUST BE PROTECTED AT ALL COSTS!!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:08:40 PM permalink
Axelwolf specifically what other incredible claims have I made?

Be specific because you have been attacking me for years.
coachbelly
coachbelly
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:14:19 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quality control is not perfect.


It's not you Alan.

If anyone had shown up here and written that he witnessed a group of players win every single hand of baccarat over a 3 hour+ period the regulars here would have been all over his case for years.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:16:57 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Gordonm888 I have another possibility for you which I mentioned once in passing.

What if the two dice were not balanced dice?

The shooter may not be responsible but perhaps the factory was?

Consider this: each shooter gets to choose two of five dice for his turn. Now, what if this particular shooter happened to have picked one die which favored a 5 and one die which favored a six?

What are the chances one shooter would pick those two particular dice?

Here's something NO ONE EVER ASKED ME BEFORE:

How long was this shooter's roll?

Well, except for the 18 yos it wasn't long at all.

The shooter established a point and then had his run of yos and then a couple more numbers. And then 7 out.

The more I think about it, the 18 yos in a row could have been helped by off balance dice... two off balanced dice which THIS SHOOTER had chosen.

I also wrote about how I once chose from a new stick of dice that had just been unwrapped... and a pip from the 6 on one die was missing.

Quality control is not perfect.

Let me add:

If the next shooter chose the die that favored the 6 but the second die was balanced his roll would appear normal and random.

I should also add: the stickman checked the dice three times during the 18 yos and found nothing wrong. But what he did was move the dice with his stick. Perhaps that small motion was not enough for the off balance of the dice to show.
link to original post



I think the imbalance in the dice would have to be quite large to be able to cause the dice to have the same outcome on almost every roll. I'm no expert, but I suspect the amount of imbalance needed to reliably get the same roll is probably outside the realm of manufacturing defects. In other words, it would be a monstrously large defect to get this result so many times in a row.

I wasn't there, so my imagination is not constrained by any of the actual details of what you experienced. But is it conceivable that this was a stunt -a publicity stunt - on the part of some over-zealous casino employees (including an employee or friend of an employee posing as the shooter) in order to impress the gambling reporter and create publicity for their casino? Intentionally weighted dice are (as I understand it) capable of generating the same outcome on repeated rolls. The fact that the 18 yos were almost the totality of this shooter's session is a detail that itself seems odd.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:20:57 PM permalink
I cant imagine it was a stunt.

No one at the table bet on the yo -- not the shooter or his buddy. There was a fourth player at the table on the other end but I dont remember him staying at the table thru the whole run.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:22:24 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quality control is not perfect.


It's not you Alan.

If anyone had shown up here and written that he witnessed a group of players win every single hand of baccarat over a 3 hour+ period the regulars here would have been all over his case for years.
link to original post



You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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October 9th, 2021 at 8:38:23 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?


That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.

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