Thread Rating:

mrjack9
mrjack9
Joined: May 18, 2011
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 9
August 5th, 2014 at 10:23:10 PM permalink
Hi Guys
I recently returned from a Las Vegas vacation and would like some help analyzing my video poker results. Over a ten day period, I averaged 5 hours of play per day, and estimate that I played around 300 hands/hour (I know that's pretty slow - I like to socialize). My game is double double bonus and I usually play 50 cent or 1 dollar (5 coin). Over a ten day period I hit three royals:
50 cent/5 coin, dealt 4 cards to royal, $2000
25 cent/ 10 coin progressive, dealt 4 cards to royal, $4300 (rounded down)
1 dollar/5 coin, dealt 2 cards to royal, $4000
My question: what is the probability of hitting this many royals during this period, out of this many hands?
Thank you in advance!
Pics available upon request. Two of the royals (#2 and #3) were on the same machine (!)
phendricks
phendricks
Joined: Aug 1, 2014
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 46
August 5th, 2014 at 11:29:20 PM permalink
The probability of exactly 3 Royal Flushes in about 15,000 hands is 0.604% (1 in 165).

The probability of 3 or more Royal Flushes in about 15,000 hands is 0.665% (1 in 150).
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 98
  • Posts: 3566
August 6th, 2014 at 12:53:48 AM permalink
Nice hits.

A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.

I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 18652
August 6th, 2014 at 5:25:42 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Nice hits.

A couple of years ago my son hit five $1 royals (single line machines) in 24 hours but came home with a net loss. Each royal cost him about $4000.

I'm guessing you came back with a net profit?

If this was a standard VP machine. I just can't believe this.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6267
August 6th, 2014 at 6:06:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If this was a standard VP machine. I just can't believe this.



At the very least, more detail is needed.

And nice hits mrjack! I see where my luck has gone. :p
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 18652
August 6th, 2014 at 6:58:16 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

At the very least, more detail is needed.

And nice hits mrjack! I see where my luck has gone. :p

I respect Alan but .... this is way out of the norm. Perhaps he played some obscure game like draw till you win or 2nd chance royals.


Just for Sh*ts and Giggles can you take a run at estimating this on an 8/5 bonus poker machine assuming near perfect play @ and average of 600 hands per hr for 24 hrs straight assume a loss of $1. I'm exaggerating but Its like he ran 20x better on then expected on royals then expected and lost 20 times more on the drop.

5 royals I can kind of believe. Surly there are W2G's. But, add that to the odds of losing on top of that. It almost seems next to impossible. Its like you would have to lose like 25% to the drop over 16k hands. This makes 30 hands of bj losses in a row look easy.

I think I lost 2500 on $1 9/6 on a double royal promotion in about 1 hr before(I didn't sit and time it)


Who was it that said there were 18 yo's in a row?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 98
  • Posts: 3566
August 6th, 2014 at 8:30:23 AM permalink
What don't you believe? Five royals in 24 hours?

First one was at Gold Strike at Jean. Next four came on different machines at Caesars. All single line, $1 denom. Almost non stop play.

Since there are W2Gs as proof care to challenge me with a small wager?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
August 6th, 2014 at 8:38:17 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 2299
August 6th, 2014 at 8:43:41 AM permalink
Axel wasnt challenging 5 royals in 24 hours. He was challenging hitting 5 royals in 24 hours but coming up a loser.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
August 6th, 2014 at 8:46:22 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

  • Jump to: