tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
June 24th, 2021 at 1:34:12 PM permalink
Mr Chump c: Did they have walkers and oxygen tanks?? If so, stay clear, one of those tanks will surely explode with a really "hot" roll.

tuttigym
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 526
June 24th, 2021 at 1:47:44 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

5 out of 6 shooters don't make 2 points on their single turn. Should I Martingale the Don't Odds?



I've been destroyed Martingaling the Don't Odds. I've also quadripled my buy in.

There's no system that works all the time!
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 11:45:10 AM permalink
Thank you all for your responses and comments. It is now time for me to produce my "plan," "strategy," "vision," and/or "scheme." Rather than make a huge lengthy post, which may be boring to some, I will submit my ideas in digestible pieces which can be easily discussed.

Caveats: (1) As previously stated, I have NOT tried or tested these wagering patterns at any casino or real craps table. (2) Betting scenarios described herein are rooted in fact and have been witnessed by most anyone who has played the game. (3) I make NO guarantees or warranties that any plan or system delivered here will result in riches beyond one's wildest imagination so that retirement to one's bucket-list destination will be stress and debt free.

Defeating the $25 table minimum form me starts with the Doey/Don't at $25 each plus $1 on the 12. After the point is established, the "establishment" player will place at least $25 free odds and usually two or three additional Place bets. The amount at "risk" and in play on the "right" side totals $125 or more. An immediate 7 out, which does happen, will result in a devastating loss of $125. Really tough to come back from that one. I, on the other hand, will cover those same four numbers (the point + three place bets) with a total wager of $6.00. How? By hopping the point, say the 5, ($2); the easy 4, 6, and 10 ($4). Now an immediate 7 out results in a $6 loss total plus perhaps $1 at Come Out on the 12. That circumstance is easily handled without indigestion or stress.

If the point is converted right away, the other player wins $50+ (PL + Odds) ; I win a net $11. My bets are down and the player still has three Place bets on the table at risk for the next hand. He must then replace his PL + Odds bet for the next hand and risk another $125. My question for any of you reading this is: How much has the player won or lost starting the third hand with the "new" bets on the table after collecting the $50+ from the previous hand?

I have much more to exhibit with additional hands to be played. I await your comments, slings, and arrows.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14750
June 25th, 2021 at 12:28:28 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Thank you all for your responses and comments. It is now time for me to produce my "plan," "strategy," "vision," and/or "scheme." Rather than make a huge lengthy post, which may be boring to some, I will submit my ideas in digestible pieces which can be easily discussed.

Caveats: (1) As previously stated, I have NOT tried or tested these wagering patterns at any casino or real craps table. (2) Betting scenarios described herein are rooted in fact and have been witnessed by most anyone who has played the game. (3) I make NO guarantees or warranties that any plan or system delivered here will result in riches beyond one's wildest imagination so that retirement to one's bucket-list destination will be stress and debt free.

Defeating the $25 table minimum form me starts with the Doey/Don't at $25 each plus $1 on the 12. After the point is established, the "establishment" player will place at least $25 free odds and usually two or three additional Place bets. The amount at "risk" and in play on the "right" side totals $125 or more. An immediate 7 out, which does happen, will result in a devastating loss of $125. Really tough to come back from that one. I, on the other hand, will cover those same four numbers (the point + three place bets) with a total wager of $6.00. How? By hopping the point, say the 5, ($2); the easy 4, 6, and 10 ($4). Now an immediate 7 out results in a $6 loss total plus perhaps $1 at Come Out on the 12. That circumstance is easily handled without indigestion or stress.

If the point is converted right away, the other player wins $50+ (PL + Odds) ; I win a net $11. My bets are down and the player still has three Place bets on the table at risk for the next hand. He must then replace his PL + Odds bet for the next hand and risk another $125. My question for any of you reading this is: How much has the player won or lost starting the third hand with the "new" bets on the table after collecting the $50+ from the previous hand?

I have much more to exhibit with additional hands to be played. I await your comments, slings, and arrows.

tuttigym



I do not intend to whip out my slings and arrows over this, but merely to ask a few questions:

1.) Does the casino where you are playing (assuming the Hop & Hard minimums are even $1) have some rule that you must have a Line bet in order to make these bets? I ask because I have not played Craps at a great many locations, and only one that I fully understand the House Rules, which are that you're only required to have a Line Bet working if you want to SHOOT the dice---and only when it would be your turn to shoot.

If that is the case at the casino that you would visit, then you would never have to do your Doey-Don't + 12 Hedge to accomplish what you are suggesting.

2.) Why are you hopping the, "Easy," ways on non-point numbers? I know you are not big on expected loss, but making $25 Place bets on BOTH the six and eight has a lower expected loss, per roll, than the $4 you are exposing hopping those other easy ways that you mentioned.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 1:56:56 PM permalink
Mission146: Really good questions:

(1) All the casinos I have played will not allow one to just play hop bets regardless of the table minimum. I tried that hopping the 7 with no line or PL bet even when I was NOT holding the dice. The table was really "cold," and I had won three consecutive times after the point was established and the pit boss stopped me on the fourth attempt to hop the 7 and told me that I had to have a table minimum bet on the line or a PL bet. The next hand I did the Doey/Don't and he really gave me the "look." I shrugged my shoulders; hopped the 7, and won again. I was following the rules, so he let it go. I did not overstay my welcome though and left the table shortly thereafter.

(2) Two reasons: (a) Hard numbers are a 35-1 shot; a really bad bet and (b) When one wins on a hopped number those extra $1 bets on the Hard number dilute the win. As for your "expected loss" math, if I am playing the same numbers as the player placing $25 and those numbers hit, then the so-called expected loss" is the same and my return of 15-1 is far greater than the 1+-1 on the regular place bet plus my risk exposure is 25x less to a 7 out.

I love the way you are thinking and challenging me.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14750
June 25th, 2021 at 2:55:15 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mission146: Really good questions:

(1) All the casinos I have played will not allow one to just play hop bets regardless of the table minimum. I tried that hopping the 7 with no line or PL bet even when I was NOT holding the dice. The table was really "cold," and I had won three consecutive times after the point was established and the pit boss stopped me on the fourth attempt to hop the 7 and told me that I had to have a table minimum bet on the line or a PL bet. The next hand I did the Doey/Don't and he really gave me the "look." I shrugged my shoulders; hopped the 7, and won again. I was following the rules, so he let it go. I did not overstay my welcome though and left the table shortly thereafter.

(2) Two reasons: (a) Hard numbers are a 35-1 shot; a really bad bet and (b) When one wins on a hopped number those extra $1 bets on the Hard number dilute the win. As for your "expected loss" math, if I am playing the same numbers as the player placing $25 and those numbers hit, then the so-called expected loss" is the same and my return of 15-1 is far greater than the 1+-1 on the regular place bet plus my risk exposure is 25x less to a 7 out.

I love the way you are thinking and challenging me.

tuttigym



1.) That sucks.

2.) I agree when it comes to the risk-exposure, but as you undoubtedly know, a long run of non-point, non-easy, non-seven rolls could eat you alive in a serious hurry on those easy hops.

Paying 15 to 1, each easy hop bet has an expected loss of 11.11 cents, which reflects the House Edge of 11.11%. You had mentioned hopping both possible fives, both easy ways to the six, as well as easy four and easy ten, which each have two ways of happening. The expected loss of that $6 exposed is 66.66 cents.

In the meantime, and I guess it would be $30 Place Bets to win $35, you have an expected loss of 0.46%, or 27.6 cents, on both bets combined. I'm typically not a huge fan of, "Per roll," (who really ever picks these back up before resolution) but consider it appropriate in comparison to hop bets.

Further, only the seven causes you to lose Place bets. The six easy hops have a combined twelve ways of occurring, so that means that 2/3rds of your rolls, or 24/36 combinations are losing. (1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-3, 2-5, 5-2, 6-1, 1-6, 4-3, 3-4, 4-4, 5-3, 3-5, 2-6, 6-2, 6-3, 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 5-5, 6-5, 5-6, 6-6).

With that, let's compare the probability of losing both Place Bets to the probability of losing the equivalent in your Hop Bets---which would be two Place Bets.

With both Place Bets, then you have 6/16 to, 'Immediately,' lose both...which just means a seven before either of the two hit. That's 37.5% of the time, so not great. Let's look at Place Bets hit and down to look at how these might work out:

Win Both Place Bets, Both Down: (10/16 * 5/11) * 70 = 19.8863636364 (Probability 0.28409090909)

Win One Place Bet, Seven, Both Down: (10/16 * 6/11) * (5) = 1.70454545455 (Probability 0.3409090909)

Lose Both Place Bets: (6/16) * (-60) = -22.5 (Probability 0.375)

Probability Sum: 0.375 + 0.3409090909 + 0.28409090909 = 1

Expected Return Sum: 19.8863636364 + 1.70454545455 - 22.5 = -0.90909090905

Relative to Bet: -0.90909090905/60 = .015151516 (This is the House Edge per bet Resolved and we are assuming both resolve)

Things get a little more tricky when we look at the Hop Bets because we win on one to lose on five for an overall profit of $10:

(12/36) * 10 = 3.33333333333

Alternatively, we can lose on all of them:

(24/36) * (-6) = -4

-4-3.33333333 = -.66666666

.6666666/6 = .11111111 (Which reflects the House Edge of 11.11%)

In order to exceed the expected loss of the Place Bets played to resolution, we would only have to lose twice on these Hop Bets. With that, we can look at the probability of different results based on two rolls, or winning a Hop Bet on the first roll which makes the second roll not necessary for these purposes.

(12/36) * 10 = 3.33333333

(24/36 * 12/36) * 4 = 0.88888888888 (You have lost six dollars followed by winning ten dollars for a net profit of four dollars)

(24/36 * 24/36) * (-12) = -5.33333333333

-5.33333333333+3.333333333+.888888888 = -1.11111111233 (This is our new expected loss, and is not double .6666666 because we do not necessarily bet $12 in this scenario, our average total bet is:

(12/36 * 6) + (24/36 * 12/36 * 12) + (24/36 * 24/36 * 12) = 10

-1.11111111233/10 = -0.11111111123 (Reflects the House Edge of 11.11%, errors due to rounding)

So, given the mere possibility of having to roll twice after a losing result (and having both lose), we see that our expected loss on the $6 bets has already exceeded that of playing BOTH $30 Place Bets to resolution.

It gets worse for the third trial and beyond because now you can no longer profit, assuming flat betting. You have already lost $12 and will only make $10 (on that roll) if the third roll is successful, for a net loss of $2.

In the meantime, we don't even expect each Place Bet (Taken individually) to resolve for slightly more than three rolls. More to the two roll point, the probability of EITHER Place Bet resolving in one roll, or both in the event of a seven, is 16/36, which means that about 31% of the time neither Place Bet (no seven, no six, no eight (20/36*20/36)) will have resolved after two rolls.

Furthermore, if you can make Place Bets without having a line bet out, then it will also eliminate your expected losses on PL, DP & $1 bet on Midnight, which I didn't even factor into this comparison.

Your, "Risk Exposure," is also not 25x less because you are making six Hop Bets for a total of $6, which still ignores Midnight. Assuming that $30 Place Bets on 6 & 8 would be made, that's a total of $60 in bets, so relative to the first roll you are betting 10% of what the Place Bets would be just in your $6 of Hop Bets. Of course, as you lose you will be making more bets, I assume, not that it matters if you do because you will be making another round of bets eventually, so it's all the same thing.

I don't know. I'd strongly prefer to do the $30 (each) Place Six and Place Eight and down on a win on either number. I understand the actual $$$ exposure at one time involved, but there comes a point that you're either there to gamble or you're not. I just feel like your strategy will lead to a ton of losing.

Or, better still, find a table with a lower minimum if it is possible. It would be great for all players who want a reasonable game if $25 tables anywhere but High Limit rooms would just be ignored by all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 311
  • Posts: 8621
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 5:10:48 PM permalink
I told you Mission was more adept with this kind of math
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 14750
June 25th, 2021 at 6:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I told you Mission was more adept with this kind of math



Aw, shucks!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 615
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 8:16:15 PM permalink
Mission 146: There is no way that I can follow most of the above run of numbers. I realize that the hops are one roll bets and there could be a string without a hit, however, while you might be an anomaly regarding the one hit on the place bet and down, the vast majority of players leave their bets on the table until they are closed down with a 7 out. So do you take your $30 place bet and leave never to place it again? If you are playing the game, you will put it out there and be exposed. The major fallacy with math associated with HA/HE is not the payout, it is the actual edge the house has after a point is established. The oft stated 0% HA on the free odds bet is bogus because winning that bet must accompany a point conversion which is never in the player's favor.

Continuously citing "probabilities" Is truly meaningless because the reality of craps is the overall probability that after a point is established, if one is counting on point conversions, losing during any given session will happen well over 85% of the time.

Are you aware that one can hop the 7, after the point is established, 4 times for $3 each time and on the fifth roll, still win? I can place $6 in hop bets 21 times and lose all to equal one 7 out on the above $125 loss. Can that happen? Sure. But I won't go broke at the table on those 21 rolls, however, it is far more likely that there will be four 7 outs during that time generating much greater losses and possibly bankrupting the "establishment" player. On the other hand if that player, during that time, hits any place bets, and I am on those same numbers, I would win also. If I get two wins, I then would put $30 on the don't odds. Further wins would convert to regular $25 Place bets or I might wait for the next hand. My play is not static nor is it the same with every shooter.

Like you, I do believe in bringing down my bets after a limited number of rolls and wins. For example, placing bets across the board with a $4 Horn allows for me to hit two or three numbers and bring it all down. A 7 out is devastating and has happened, but that is gambling. But just to be clear, a $25 table limits my flexibility in the way I play and is not within my comfort zone. Also, one is not going to win anything of consequence during any session with $1 bets.

tuttigym
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1067
Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
June 25th, 2021 at 8:18:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146


-1.11111111233/10 = -0.11111111123 (Reflects the House Edge of 11.11%, errors due to rounding)

I couldn’t read through all this but it might be easier if you left numbers in fractional format. The above edge would be expressed as 1/9
It’s all about making that GTA

  • Jump to: