SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
Joined: May 10, 2010
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July 2nd, 2021 at 11:35:44 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The general public ... they believe The New York Times editorial page.

Doesn't matter. We're close to the end. The Times is now shouting really loudly that we have "one year to save the planet."
daveyandersen1
daveyandersen1
Joined: Mar 27, 2015
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July 2nd, 2021 at 1:01:30 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

You know what would really be entertaining? I will use YOUR $500 and have a blast, AND I will give the results back to you free of charge. BTW the above is so complicated, if you were to try that, the dealers would call security, and the other table patrons would be helping to remove you to the Wheel of Fortune table.

tuttigym

It'sTO bad you dont get my response I think it is just what you are looking for,,You dont make all these bets at once ..You make them 1 or 2 ata time maybe get a win and have fun with it.. dealers dont care players wont care either
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 2nd, 2021 at 1:52:36 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Doesn't matter. We're close to the end. The Times is now shouting really loudly that we have "one year to save the planet."


Man I better get to my bucket list. First, get to a casino; buy in for $5,000; see what happens; second, convince the WoO that the !.41% HA is nothing but a fraction conversion which somehow gives equal status to Come Out Wins vs Point Conversion wins even though the House wins 73% vs 27% point conversions.

tuttigym
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:23:39 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

somehow gives equal status to Come Out Wins vs Point Conversion wins even though the House wins 73% vs 27% point conversions



Do you somehow not give equal status to the money they pay you on the first roll vs the fourth roll?
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:43:05 PM permalink
Quote: daveyandersen1

It'sTO bad you dont get my response I think it is just what you are looking for,,You dont make all these bets at once ..You make them 1 or 2 ata time maybe get a win and have fun with it.. dealers dont care players wont care either


Mr. daveyandersen1: Sorry, when I read your post, it all ran together as if you were being facetious.

I was experimenting with a "plan" on WinCraps to try to defeat the $25 table. Before I explain it, I want to tell of my craps gambling philosophy that motivates my play. I always set a goal of how much I want to win. I buy-in for $600, and my goal is to win between $250-$400. When I attain those winnings, depending on how long it took, I leave. My "style" is NOT "establishment." My mind-set is NOT negative in expectations, but I am well aware that after a point establishes the HA/HE is against me, big time (House wins 73% vs point conversion winner 27%). Therefore, I do not need a "hot" shooter. In fact, a "choppy" table is doable. One other thing about my approach is that after the point is established, I have 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose. That gives me a 5 to 1 edge OVER the House on any given roll of the dice. So:

I start with the Doey/Don't at $25 each way plus a $5 World. I play the 30 ways to win in two ways. If the point is a 5, 6, or 8, I play the Iron Cross with FO of $50 on the point; $60 on the 6; $50 on the 5; and $30 on the Field. (A lot of money with lots of risk--well aware.) Two rolls nets me a minimum of $60, and I come down on all bets except the FO, but I reduce it to $25. For the next 5 rolls, I hop the 7 for $6. A 7 out gives me a push on the PL bets and I lose the FO but win $32 less any hops that did not hit. A PL winner gives me a win of $30 against a $6 hop loss. I am counting on the average hand being resolved in 4 to 6 rolls. The "plan" has other approaches during play, but details can be boring. I will say that the "hopped" 7 is an inexpensive way to hedge, and it worked rather well on WinCraps. To be sure, though, an early 7 out is beyond nasty, but that is gambling. Covering the 30 ways to win and that 5 to 1 edge over the House for a very limited number of rolls has served me well in the past which is not to say that I have lost in some of my sessions.

OK, now you can roll your eyes and comment.

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 2nd, 2021 at 2:47:13 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Do you somehow not give equal status to the money they pay you on the first roll vs the fourth roll?


Mr.Dieter: That's a great question, but what does that have to do with the 73% HA vs 27% point conversion player disadvantage.? And you do not disagree with that huge HA after point establishment?

tuttigym
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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July 3rd, 2021 at 5:19:38 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr.Dieter: That's a great question, but what does that have to do with the 73% HA vs 27% point conversion player disadvantage.? And you do not disagree with that huge HA after point establishment?

tuttigym



Absolutely nothing.
Place your bet before the first roll.
Dice land these ways, you win.
Dice land those ways, you lose.
Dice did something else, you get a second chance to win or lose, with different likelihoods.

1.41% overall.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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July 3rd, 2021 at 6:12:31 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

One other thing about my approach is that after the point is established, I have 30 ways to win and only 6 ways to lose. That gives me a 5 to 1 edge OVER the House on any given roll of the dice. So:
...

OK, now you can roll your eyes and comment.

tuttigym

Methinks 'edge' doesn't mean what you think it means.

Play roulette and put a dollar on all the numbers 1 - 36. that's 36 ways to win and only 2 ways to lose. does that give you an 18 to 1 edge over the house on any given spin of the wheel?*

You really cannot calculate edge or advantage without taking into account the pay out rates as well as the probabilities.

*Incidentally the house edge would be exactly the same whether you did that, or if you placed all your chips on one number.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jul 3, 2021
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 7:53:39 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Methinks 'edge' doesn't mean what you think it means.

Quote: OnceDear

Play roulette and put a dollar on all the numbers 1 - 36. that's 36 ways to win and only 2 ways to lose. does that give you an 18 to 1 edge over the house on any given spin of the wheel?*


Mr. Once Dear: Wow, I am flattered that an Administrator would join in and post. Thank you. Your analogy misses the mark terribly in that betting on all 36 numbers in roulette WINS the player NOTHING (emphasis). The "Iron Cross" or my second gambit of playing all the Place bets + the Horn (30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose), returns a substantial amount to my chip tray when successful. The example provided gave me a minimum $60 return for the two hits. Your example would give me NOTHING (emphasis).

Quote: OnceDear

You really cannot calculate edge or advantage without taking into account the pay out rates as well as the probabilities.


I just did. As far as "probability," the likelihood (probability defined) of a number other than the 7 rolled in my scenario is still 5x greater. If that "probability" is not an "edge" or "advantage," then how would you define it?

Quote: Once Dear

*Incidentally the house edge would be exactly the same whether you did that, or if you placed all your chips on one number.


Are you describing roulette or craps?
Webster defines "edge" as "advantage." The "Iron Cross" provides that "advantage." It does not nor do I claim it to be a "guarantee."

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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July 3rd, 2021 at 8:04:24 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Absolutely nothing.


MrDieter: As before, you dodge the question and distract attention elsewhere as well as distort the obvious. Speaking of dodging, I noticed that you somehow did not provide answers to the other questions posed: money buy-in; time; dice rolls; hands played; and specific requirements. Why is that? Just sayin'.

tuttigym

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